Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
June 11, 2009

Market Update – Terrorism in the USA

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP? – Another terrorist attack in the USA – Rachel Maddow editorial on terrorism – O’ Reilly,  Boss Limbaugh, left and right wing anti Semitism, hate groups and those who water them – Obama as the #1 target. – Reading Stock tea Leaves – Change in GEX position – and more.

Terrorism in the USA

Image: Rachel Maddow, MSNBC Anchors

Rachel Maddow Editorial Linked Below

Photo – Virginia Sherwood for NBC

  • Gun loving terrorists ambush/kill 3 Pittsburgh cops. They were afraid Obama may limit gun rights.
  • Abortion Doctor killed by pro life terrorist at his church
  • Army recruiter killed by newly converted Muslim Terrorist
  • Latest headline – Security guard a holocaust museum killed by anti Semitic, right wing, anti government, anti black terrorist, who believed Obama was not born in the USA.

These are the last 4 major terrorist incidents involving loss of life that American Corporate media has splashed on the front pages.  Of course they missed all the deaths/terrorism due to domestic violence.  This mostly involves killing women, who may have it better here than in many other countries, but are still second class citizens in the USA.

Many in the USA are part of a violent, gun loving culture that preaches hate, loves it torture, & and is conditioned by fear mongering. Boss Limbaugh (Talk show host Rush Limbaugh) according to a recent USA Today poll is #1 person on the list of the leaders of the Republican Party (To be fair a majority thought the party leaderless) Limbaugh preaches that Obama is more dangerous that al Quaeda.

Another influential hate monger Bill O’Reilly repeatedly likened the deceased abortion doctor to Nazi doctors and called him “Baby killer.”  Even members of the far the left wing in this country has started using anti Semitic statements referring to all Jews. While its hard to prove a direct link, People like Limbaugh,  O’Reilly and others  water the ground of this hatred.

Is the threat of right wing extremism getting worse? Economic turmoil and our first black president have further enraged the hate. Rachel Maddow has an excellent editorial on her MSNBC show last night.

Obviously, the major target of all these haters is Barak Obama.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.27% up
NASDQ -0.38 % up
S&P500 -0.35% up
Russell2000 -0.80 % -

-

Technicals & Fundamentals

$USDThe dollar is the index to watch You could write a book on the dollars influence on everything but for us the bottom line right now is – When the dollar goes down -stocks and oil prices go up and visa versa.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) have been flat for three weeks. Financials has been the leading sector and as financials go so go the markets. Financials are lagging Techs. Yesterday financials down -1 .52%

WTICOil prices closed up +1.89 to $71.33 As stated before – “Higher oil prices are an indication of economic recovery, but also hurt that recovery because it means energy prices will rise.”

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade). Stated before -  This is extremely important because one of the greatest obstacles to a worldwide recovery is the lack of trade between countries (protectionism) Down for sixth day in a row, but the rate of decline is slowing. This follows 24 days of going up. So extended moves the normal this index.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Volume has Never really confirmed the breakout we had last week. Even though staying above breakout levels is a confirmation, one would really like to see an increased above average 1%+ gain for major US indexes.  We keep bumping up against another breakout level and failing.

Right now, markets seem to have over extended themselves and a 10% correction would be good in the long run for stocks . Trading is very light except for the NASDQ which is near average. (Summer trading is usually light)

Conclusion – Very light trading – This is a traders market and traders move fast.  Still expect and hope for a slight pull back or consolidation.  As stated before looking for entry points/dips to buy back into  some or all of the following –  QLD, EWZ, IFN and PBW (see GEX below) –

China, India & Brazil are growing and they are leading the world out of the recession. The USA has some “green-shoots” of hope, but there are big long term problems here.

Positions – (See positions section of blog for more)

  • FXI – our major position here rose +2.89% yesterday. This is the third failed attempt at a breakout. FXI was actually up 2=% more almost at a new high and pulled back.  It looks like FXI has formed a short term top.
  • GEX – alternative energy - +0.77 yesterday. GEX is trading at or near anew high for the year. We are going to change to the other major ETF that does alternative energy PBW . This alternative energy ETF is more liquid but its also outperforming GEX. We have been in PBW in past years and went with GEX because it outperformed. This will be a slow transition over the next month. Already sold 1/2 position in GEX and will add that $ to PBW on a small (5%) dip.  Then sell other 1/2 and wait for a dip.
  • The HEDGE – Almost no change. You can get a rough idea how this position does by looking at the difference between the NSDQ and S&P 500 – (-0.03% and multiplying it by 2) instead of looking up SDS and QLD

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING G !

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 11, 2009

Market Updates – Spock/Obama

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

What’s Up? Sorry, Limited time this AM – While Mondays have been good days for stocks recently – the NASDQ is showing signs of rolling over and dragging the rest of the indexes with it. Some sort of a correction likely this week: Barak Spock Obama vs the ideologues.

NYT photo

Barak “Spock” Obama

It’s amazing how many analogies there are out there comparing Obama & his administration to Spock and the “Federation.” Both my grandson and I loved the movie. 

Like Spock & the Federation in the movie and TV series, Obama faces external challenges. There are many external threats, but for Obama who keeps his cool like Spock, the internal threats seem to be far more sinister. 

The far right wing that rules the Republican party has doggedly held onto the “you’re either with us or against us” mantra that every alien villain has had in the Star Trek series. The real threat to Obama and America is those who openly hope “Obama fails.” If he fails so does America.

It’s one thing to criticize his conduct or to think what his administration does will not work (this blog often does), but its hugely different to hope for failure.

Rush Limbaugh, openly promotes this division (Failure) among Americans. What’s frightening is how powerful he is among Republicans.(see past updates) The far left has its wacko’s, but they never came close to devouring the Democratic party or moderates in the USA.

Media Matters has stood up to this group of ideologues for years. Their latest fight is against CBS sport analyst David Feherty who suggest “any US soldier would kill [Democratic leaders] “Reid and Pelosi.”

STOCKS

Sorry, ran out of time. Outlook for week – reversal of bullish trend. See Positions section for changes made over weekend.

 

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 5, 2009

Market Updates – Hoping Obama Fails

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

US and world markets had one of those now rare winning days (see chart below) so lets take a look at the trends in American politics.


Hoping Obama Fails

Remember the Republicans all during the Iraq war accusing their fellow American’s and the rest of the world “you’re either with us or against us.” Now, radical right winger Rush Limbaugh who seems to have taken over the leadership of the Republican party is actually proudly broadcasting “he hopes Obama fails”

__________

Where’s Waldo

Has anyone seen or heard from the former president?

__________

Disintegrating Republican Chair

The Chair of the Republican National Committee is supposed to be a fellow called Michel Steele. Well he took on Limbaugh calling him and “entertainer” whose show was “ugly” and “incendiary” After a day of getting blasted by Limbaugh, Steel did a 180 and apologized. Almost every right and left wing blog is gushing stories on Limbaugh filling the void of leadership in the Republican party and the huge blow to the image of the Republican party.

Reminder – everything in light blue is a link to a different source – like the two above. Just click on them.

_________

Obama’s Mortgage Plan

Yesterday Obama/Geithner unveiled their mortgage plan to keep 9 million homeowners in their homes. Markets did move higher, in part on this news.(see below)

__________

A PHD from Oxford and Funny

If you think Phd from Oxford can’t be funny, political and relevant, then you haven’t watched Rachel Maddow Last night the commedian/poltical satirist was on Jay Leno. Maddow has a show on MSNBC at 9:00PM EST

__________

How to Bring Down the Deficit

Simple Stop empire building and approving hundreds of billions for  unneeded cold war weapons systems. We thought Obama was going to to take this on, but if  his slooooooooow Iraq withdraw plan is any indication of  the direction he’s he’s taking this country we’re in for Bush lite. American’s are so paranoid that we spend as much on the military as the whole rest of the world combined.

__________

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Stocks

-

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +2.23% up
NASDQ +2.48% flat
S&P500 +2.38% up
Russell2000 +2.85% -

-

Technicals & Fundamentals

Finally a green day across the board for US and most of the world’s stock markets.  Maybe it was the 75 billion mortgage plan, the China stimulus plan or just what Investors411 has bee predicting and oversold technical bounce that moved stocks higher.  Most likely a combination of all three.

The monthly jobless report is big news (announced Friday) and its going to be hard to see stocks move higher today in front of the jobs report.  In this case traders (there are very few investors left) may sell the rumor (worse than expected jobs report) and buy the news (an in line with expectations jobs report)  This could extend Wednesday’s bullish reversal. I’m trying to be optimistic

All our secondary indicators remain mildly positive for the bulls. See charts of BDSI, Treasuries & Libor on right hand side of blog.  Of special interest is the Baltic Dry Sea Index that measures shipping. Seems like China is still importing and exporting goods.

The major problem continues to be investors realizing just how many trillions of dollars of wealth has evaporated as major financial institutions posted unregulated, fraudulent, over leveraged profits from what was basically an insurance scam.

Our government and these companies continue to hide their losses and few like Senators like Bernie Sanders seems to be wiling to go after them. (see yesterday’s update.  

Today NY AG Andrew Cuomo is going after Bank of Ameica/Merill Lynch for exorbitant salaries. This is flashy, but it doesn’t emphasize the size and scope of the damage done by financial institution over the last decade.

Long Term Outlook BEARS RULE

See STRATEGY, POSITIONS, OVERVIEW  & ARCHIVES sections of blog for more

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
Page: /tag/limbaugh/ : TestLink1 - TestLink2 - TestLink3