Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 3, 2012

Two Scandals Explode

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

International Banking

Scandal Explodes

b

.

Too Big to Fail

Bankstas

Skim YOUR money from

2005 to 2009

Before, During, After 2008

worldwide financial meltdown

.

Massive Furor in UK/Europe

Where’s the Outrage Here?

.

Who owns the politicians

and the media?

.

.

“There’s vast criminality in Wall Street now.


It’s bribery, theft, fraud, bid rigging, price


fixing, gambling, loan sharking. All of these


things, it’s all organized.” - MATT TAIBBI

.

.

Just 1 of the 17

too big to fail

Banksta/Vampire Squids

has settled with

gov’t regulators

[List includes a who's who

of too big to fail US banks]

.

Skimming/profiting from

YOU and World Hunger

.

Today’s Headline

Barclay’s CEO resigns

in disgrace

______

.

We’re all outraged that none

of the plutocracy ever goes to jail

under Obama

.

.

The catastrophic outrage is

Romney and Republicans want to

cut Regulators and Regulations

that are catching bankstas

who steal YOUR money

.

******************

.

Drug Cartel Scandal

Explodes

.

$3 Billion Fine

Biggest Ever

.

.

Glaxo Smith Kline

.

Failure to Report safety problems

Promoted drugs for unapproved uses

Drugs that cause heart failure

Drugs we give our Children

Seven Years of deceit

.

At least, the Amounts of Fines

are increasing

$22+ billion collected

.

.

How much longer are

you

going to remain silent?

.,

Romney and Republicans

are demanding

less regulations, less regulators

and “free markets”

for the Banking and Drug cartels.

.

******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

.

Unless we get

regulators and regulations

the ultimate end pictured above

.

But for now

Second half of 2012 Outlook now

in POSITIONS section of blog

(scroll down to Outlook for 2nd 1/2 of 2012)

.

From Yesterday

“Short term - Hopeful, of bullish bias (see above) till earnings season – Starts end if next week.

If stocks can hold onto or add to Friday’s gains today/this week – its positive for US stocks”

We held onto Friday’s gains = Bullish

.

The McClellan Oscillator

is at OMG overbought levels

+85.09.

For over three years it has been

impossible to move higher from

OMG overbought in the short term

.

Expect, at least consolidation

before any significant gains

.

Long Term Outlook

3+ months

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS


.


.

.


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June 27, 2011

The Squeeze is on

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Illustration – Mark Matcho/Mother Jones

Corporate America is flush with cash and profits are up 22% this year. Instead of an editorial, here are three charts showing what’s happening to growth, productivity, wealth, &  JOBS in the USA and other major democracies. You be the judge.

Rich Get Richer and  You Get Scraps

Growth is Back

But Not Jobs in USA

These are just three of a dozen eye popping and credibly sourced  charts found in Mother Jones. You can see where American jobs are going at the MJ Link. A WSJ chart will be featured tomorrow with this info.

Other democracies protect their workers, have far stronger unions, and unions work with both companies and their federal government to protect jobs and company profits.

Here working class Americans “fight over scraps on the table” and blame each other while the uber wealthy get richer.

A number of you have pointed out in the comments section on the victory for Gay rights/marriage in NY.  Popeye quotes the latest Gallop poll shows 52% to 43% now favor the NY approach as long as religious beliefs are respected.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.96 Up
NASDQ -1.26 Up
S&P 500 -1.17 UP
Russell 2000 -0.61 -

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Reading The Tea Leaves Longer Term -On May 20th The long term outlook was downgraded and then again on June 7th.  A rough translation of this is 4 to 6 months there is a strong possibility that  the benchmark S&P will end up 10 to 20% off its high. There are two foreseeable economic problems that might cause us to reach 20% or a larger meltdown.

  1. Europe mishandling of their debt crisisThe bottom line is do European banks stay strong or is their a run on them because of the debt problem?This problem has been exacerbated by the 2008 financial meltdown
  2. Default on American debtAmerica’s role as a world leader and financial model has been seriously eroded in the past decade.  Polarized American politicians are playing a high stake game of chicken with the national debt and the remaining credibility of our financial/economic model in the eyes of the world.

Long term the later is probably a bigger problem.

Shorter Term Outlook.

  • US stocks fell in above average volume. This year, big volume declines didn’t seem to matter as long as the Fed had our back with increased liquidity. That vanishes in 4 days. The huge swings and indecisiveness of stocks is a reflection of this and other economic problems (see above)
  • Obama releasing petroleum reserves helps oil prices. The next time he does this it might not be as effective.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to -14.81 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months.  The last low was close to -70 and the MO has a way to go before reaching that.  = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar rose  significantly +o.48% Friday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. The dollar is now at new short term high For stocks short term trend = Bearish

  • Reading The Tea LeavesShorter term Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting. The whole roller coaster ride ride of the last two weeks is a big spring. winding.

______________

A Long Term Portfolio

Many Thanks to The Critic for sharing her portfolio. The Critic has been with Investors411 from the start and is a frequent contributor to the comments section.  The Critic is an executive at a major company.

The Critic largest position is in cash and has stated many times in the comments section that she has protected much of the below portfolio like JS by using Puts & short ETF’s (see comments section)  I’ve been working with Critic and another person in developing the lists of dividend stocks as long term investments. Again Many Thanks for sharing .

Disclosure I own many o the below positions.[Editor]

______________

Barr, most of these stock have done well since the start of the year, but the future is clouded.  Just remember to tell people that I’ve bought protection because of the potential risks ahead and I buy the dip. If you want to use them for Your Stock List feel free. Like all dividend stocks I choose only those that have flat or increased dividends.

  • NLY – Biggest fish in the high dividend group. Jim Cramer loves this stock.
  • AGNC - Little fish in the same group.
  • CVX - Oil Company with small dividend. Much better than Exxon because it buys back far less of its stock to prop up stock price.
  • MCD – Giant Food Company with smaller dividend.
  • KMP – Limited partnership – Tax considerations here, but I know the company and like it.
  • T – Phone company and a big one.
  • WIN – Phone company and a small one with higher dividend.
  • SNH – Buys senior properties. Unless badly managed this area has to expand.
  • DUK – This is my energy play
  • HCN – Health Care REIT
  • HTD - An ETF from John Hancock – Some tax advantages here.

These are the major dividend stocks in my portfolio. I have a some smaller position. and non related mutual and bond  funds. I own these long term because I don’t have time to watch markets day to day and for tax reasons.  Hope this helps.

PS – Barr, please remind people about risk.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

______________

Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago.

Repeat longer Strategy remains -

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply“We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

If/when we break the recent lows of the S&P 500 that little bit of NEUTRAL still in the forecast will vanish

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE



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May 5, 2010

Nuclear Power

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

nuclear-bomb-explosion.jpg

-

Nuclear Power

Editorial from Yankee Bob (bolding/color/format mine) in response to my including nuclear power as part of comprehensive energy plan that focused on alternative sources.

Why the hell would you support Nuclear energy??!!

There is no more expensive way to boil water then Nuclear. It’s the most expensive way to produce power when you consider the social costs.

  • The deaths from radiation releases that are routine and routinely labeled as safe render it a loser.
  • There is no safe place to store the tons and tons of waste unless you’d like to store it under your bed!
  • The waste has to be shipped via truck or rail around the country. Sooner or later there will be a deadly accident or terrorists will hijack it.
  • The waste will be deadly for 100s of thousands of years. Nice of us to pass the risk on to future generations.

If nuclear is so wonderful,

  • why does the industry need the government to guarantee loans so reactors can be built?
  • Why does the taxpayer have to assume the risk and get stuck for the tab even if they never produce a watt of electricity??!!
  • If Nukes are so safe why does the government have to insure them because private companies won’t?
  • What happened to the market place providing solutions?

This new nuke tech they are planning on building does have design problems and has not yet been certified by the regulatory agencies. It’s nuke industry propaganda that is touting their safety,no one else. when was the last time cost analysis factored in the cost of decommissioning a plant? They don’t! What is the cost of the public subsidies for guaranteed loans and gov insurance?

By the way,if you have a meltdown and lose a whole state,do you really think the gov will pay off on the loss of property to common citizens or just corporations? Why can’t we apply an equal amount of public subsidies to good clean solar or wind or geo thermal?

And lastly,without Homer’s Nuke plant making piles of plutonium and where would the weapons industry be. First ,they depended on it for making nuclear weapons and now they make a s–t load of the enriched armor piercing stuff that we have littered Kuwait and Bosnia and especially,Iraq with and it’s probably responsible for the Gulf War Syndrome. Why would you be in favor of Nuclear power? Eventually,we will lose a city or a state.


Smiley Nuclear

A shorter rebuttal from John Sovjani

Bob; I think nuclear should be part of the solution. Japan and France get most of their electricity from it. As Tom Freidman has said, we invented and developed it and now other countries are taking it and running away with it. If subsidies weren’t given, which energy tech would succeed in the market place? Also, which technologies do we have now that are proven and how long it will take any of these to have a significant impact without subsidies? Was it 10 years for approval for windmills off Cape Cod?

Have an opinion? Let it be heard in the comments section of the blog Nuclear energy, Immigration & Fixing Shadow financials are the latest topics – but anything goes.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.02% up
NASDQ -2.98% up
S&P 500 -2.38% up
Russell 2000 -3.15% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

From MondaySell in May and stay away” an old Wall Street saying.

This is the third or fourth “Distribution” day for major US indexes. Distribution = big, increased, above average volume associated with a major (biggest since 2/4) selling day. Technically 3D days (a pun) is about as big a signal of a market reversal there is, especially when rally days have so little volume. = BEARISH

Technically almost every analyst sees two major obstacles – We reached a “Fibonacci retracement number for the benchmark S&P 500. and US markets are at the place they were before the Lehman Brothers meltdown sparked the massive selloff. = Bearish

This added to a roller coster markets (up, down, up, down), which usually indicates a top has the boys and girls who live by technical analysis running for cover. = Bearish

Lots of analysts specifically  blamed yesterdays massive selling on Greeks who protested austerity measures as conditions for loans. They like most American want to see the Greek bankers pay more. The demonstration was the small picture. Markets selling off so much on this relatively minor news = Bearish

The real problem is in all the PIIGS in Europe got nailed when their bank, like ours were got over leveraged. There are other causes but  over leveraged loans have played a huge role across the world = Bearish

The Dollar (see below) is a major fundamental problem to recovery. As the dollar moves higher two negative factors come into play

  • Oil prices, tied to dollar, also move higher. May & June historically have been period oil prices increase before summer driving season.
  • US exports cost more abroad, because the dollar is more expensive and this cuts profits. = Bearish

Analysis - Big red bear paw prints all over the place. (see above) This time a low volume rally is probably just not going to cut it and traders will sell into the rally.

About the best hope to stem the tide is improvement in the employment numbers on Thursday. We also have a strong earnings season = Bullish

However, What Investors see, impacting those strong earnings is

  • Higher gas prices
  • Higher costs to export goods
  • Continuation of European debt problem
  • No solution American shadow banking problems.

Perhaps we will get a weak volume rebound today.  However these weak volume rebounds are on very thin ice when traders see such massive volume behind sell offs. So the roller coaster ride is probably going to finish where many coasters do – down from the top.

1168+ The 50 DMA & 1150+ (an old high) are two major support levels on the benchmark S&P 500 now at 1173.60

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell dramatically  to -46.43 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – The MO broke through a strong support level at -33 support level. Breaking down through support almost always means there is more downside to come.  However support levels do put up resistance to further falls.
  • US DollarHad a HUGE breakout and was up +1.16% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important Dollar closed at $83.83. The breakout of the trading pattern to a new high for the dollar focus almost all eyes on the growing value of the US dollar. Rising dollar almost always = falling stocks. The dollar is rising and falling because of the fluctuations in European currencies = Greek debt.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Caution From Monday -The stocks in  YOUR Stock list are especially vulnerable to a sharp correction in the market.

CautionFrom Tuesday- More and more US equities are looking like they have reached at least a short term high.  The jobs report on Thursday is critical to advancing markets.

Long Term OutlookIn anticipation of the S&P 500 (click on link to chart at side of blog) breaking through its 50 DMA the long term outlook is going to get downgraded to NEUTRAL.  This may be jumping the gun,but the momentum is with the bears.

YOUR Stock List from last Tuesday. Right now because all stocks could be taking a major correction it is far more significant to focus on the  BIG PICTURE than individual stocks.

Yesterday Investors sold 1/2 of its EWZ position (Brazil) that was bought  many months ago for a profit. The last 1/2 is down from where it was bought. This leaves Investors411 with under 10% position in stocks. (See positions section) Holding onto long term positions in IMAX & ESRX

The good news is as the McClellan Oscillator falls (especially below -60 = Oversold) Investors411 will start buying/nibbling again. Hopefully, more on this tomorrow. What too look for are stocks bucking the trend. (more tomorrow)

Note 2/4 was the last time we had a bigger than yesterday’s sell off and that’s 7 days before Investors411 started to buy. – We all had a good run then. Let’s hope the same pattern sets up.


Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 5, 2010

CNBC – LasVegas/Glenn Beck

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Cnbc Logo

Change in Long Term Stock Outlook

See Positions section below for why stock outlook was upgraded and editorial

CNBC – Las Vegas/Glenn Beck

CNBC is easily the #1 financial channel. With shows from “Fast Money” to “Mad Money” CNBC hypes the quick buck on Wall Street by combining the glitter of Las Vegas and the antics of Glenn Beck.  The blatant emotionalism sells for CNBC and their advertisers – the stocks they want you to buy. Confession – I have CNBC on a lot as background when I work and its on right now waiting for the 8:30 jobs report.

CNBC so lauded Greed based Capitalism (“Free markets” as opposed to rules based capitalism) it can be said it was a significant contributing factor to 2008s economic meltdown.

Jon Stewart’s Daily Show took CNBC’s star Jim Cramer to the woodshed over this. CNBC has put together a formula of hype, emotionalism, screaming that sells to fear/greed short term investment crowd.  Indeed this is a style diametrically opposed to the one Nobel prize winning psychologist and founder of Behavioral Economics Daniel Kahneman uses.

(to be continued)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.46% down
NASDQ +0.51% down
S&P 500 +0.37% down
Russell 2000- +0.49% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Stocks rallied (minor rally) in weak volume AGAIN.  This is the Bull markets mantra. (See editorial and change in Long Term Outlet below) Fundamentally there was some good weekly jobs data, but the big news is the monthly jobs numbers coming out at 8:30 EST this AM

Jobs Report -  February employment numbers  – Unemployment held at -9.7% and jobs down -36,000, a bit better than expected -60,000. January revised down -6000 (minor)

This is about as good as it gets for stocks. The fact that employment is NOT declining means interest rats will stay low and the Fed will keep flooding the economy with money.  Expect a rally.

Good news is monetary policy has helped stabilize the employment decline and we are down from 3 months ago.  The bad news is we are still at 9.7%

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator slipped slightly to +52.43 yesterday We are now just below +60 or Overbought territory. Stockcharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($nymo) LINK We are still close to oversold territory, but have fallen over 10 points in last few days. This gives us a bit of up side wiggle room. However, still holding onto the sell more into any major move higher.  The McClellan Oscillator would have to at least get 5 or 10 points above recent high of 62+ to sell.

Because of the change in Long Term Outlook to Cautiously Bullish - any pullback in the McClellan Oscillator to say +20 would be an opportunity to nibble again.  This market wants to move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Even though markets are close to being oversold in the short trm – the Long Term Outlook has been upgraded to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. from NEUTRAL The reason for this is technically that the benchmark S&P 500 (see chart) has for 4 days traded above its 50 day moving average. It has also formed a series of higher price highs and one higher low. Yes, volume, the #1 confirmation factor, has been weak, except for the first two+ months of the Bull Market that started in March. In fact, the chart shows volume has basically declined since May.

Behaviorally – there are many investors out there who have been burned by the Capitalism of Greed that they are holding onto other investments like bonds. There are two main possible ways (perhaps more) that these traders would buy into stocks

  • Greed based capitalism becomes Rules based capitalism – Some transparency is reintroduced into US financial markets – From standardized mark to market accounting to regulated Credit Default Swaps to eliminating to big to fail institutions.
  • Seeing the markets move higher, greed overwhelms those on the sideline and they jump in building another bubble. Its hard to predict exactly what behaviorally would trigger those that are seeking safer havens than US equities.

For decades volume has been the #1 confirmation factor of a price move. This is simple supply and demand economics. The more people that want to buy something (demand) – the higher the price grows (assuming basically the supply of stocks is relatively constant).  In the end something has to give. However, technically, higher highs and crossing the 50 day moving average are both bullish indicators. The lack of volume is the caution.

NB – We are in a position of change and sometimes markets can reverse themselves quickly.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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July 15, 2009

Market Updates – Change in Long Term Outlook

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

-

Financing Health Care

Nancy Pelosi


Here’s the "Pelosi" or House Plan costs It has a direct impact on 1.2% of Americans.

  • 1% increase on those earning over 280K to 500k
  • 1.5% increase on those earning 500k to 1 million
  • 5.4% increase on those earnings over 1 million.

The nuts and bolts (lower costs & greater choices) of the plan explained here

Bottom Line – The growing income inequality is one of the major economic problems that has done  seriously harm to this nation.  No matter what you feel about this imperfect plan the Republicans had 8 years and did nothing while health care prices skyrocketed. The Democrats and Obama are moving in the right direction.

Knowing that heath care costs are covered, 10′s of millions of Americans will be more likely to spend money.

Sotomayor Hearings

Sotomayor

The Supreme court has become a highly charged political entity. The 5-4 vote for President Bush in 2000 proved this beyond any doubt.

So naturally the Sotomayor hearings are a circus of political correctness. The OWMP (Old White Men’s Party) or Republican’s are further alienating themselves from America’s growing non white community by going  after an eminently qualified Hispanic women jurist. In the NYT Maureen Dowd has a column appropriately  entitled "White Man’s Last Stand" here

Waiting Game

Obama

Huffington Post photo

The NYT has an editorial that reflects similar views of Investors411 over these past month. Why is the Obama administration waiting to act on some critical economic factors? See editorial here

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.33% down
NASDQ +0.36 % down
S&P500 +0.53% down
Russell2000 +0.56% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Markets moved slightly higher after Monday’s big gains in reduced volume. A Bullish confirmation signal

Financials are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because t he Obama administration & the Fed has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown.

Intel’s earnings report  was a grand slam . Intel is the mother of all chip stocks and chips are the picks and shovels of technology. Therefore, this is a fundamental sign that technology is full of "green shoots," (green shoots is an overused term that of signs the recession is receding) At least technology is one sector of the worldwide economy moving forward.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) As predicted for the last two days the BDI has turned back and yesterday mover significantly (3+%)  higher. So the prediction on Monday about a bullish turn has come true.  Bulls Rule momentum

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - turning bullish
  • mid termclear bearish pattern
  • long term - bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is still comfortably in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+.

—–

Monday’s Fearless Forecast for week So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week Intel surprise is a strong fundamentally Bullish factor

Changing Long Term Outlook back to NEUTRAL – Both the BDI (world trade) and technology are green shoots

Our Positions

Intel earnings positively impact four positions

  • IFN – India We outsource much of our technology to India.
  • QLD – This in its own right (not part of the "the Hedge" trade) becomes a buy the dip trading opportunity again
  • FXI – Benefits less directly. But anything that helps the US helps China more.
  • The Hedge – This should certainly help the QLD or tech part of this trade.

Personally I’m adding to positions early this AM and/or on any dips. (5% to 10%) addition.

This doesn’t mean that the worldwide recession is out of the woods – there are some long term problems that are no where near solved – but Intel’s news and the BDI turn should really  juice stocks.  The benchmark S&P 500 is at 905 and the next resistance level is 930 then the yearly high of 956. Rally ho

Note change in Long Term Outlook up ANOTHER level to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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June 9, 2009

Market Updates – Iran’s elections

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

What’s Up – Sorry overslept this AM – Abbreviated update & having technical problems – Iran – Elections – North Korea – Mortgage rates – No change outlook

Iran

Elections in Iran are generating a lot of buzz within the country and the world. Ahmadinejad, lost a chunk of support when Hezbolah (his supported group) lost in Lebanon, The “green revolution” or major opposition candidate would take a somewhat more cooperative stance toward the rest of the world. His name is Mousavi. Photo and editorial from The Economist

North Korea

Both the left wing and right wing have it wrong. North Korea is not going to be sweet talked or bullied into anything. They realize the USA is in a weak position just like it was in the Vietnam war. We are still up to our necks in the quicksand with the Muslim world (Palestine, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Therefore they feel they can get away with whatever they want.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.02% down
NASDQ -0.38% down
S&P500 -0.10% down
Russell2000 -1.05% -

Biggest problem out there right now is rising mortgage prices. Scroll down at following site & you will see data. showing interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages going from 4.96 to 5.48% in May.

No real changes from Monday’s outlook. BDI continued to fall.


Long Term Outlook
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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June 2, 2009

Market Updates – Religious terrorism strikes the USA

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

 

WHAT’S UP? – Religious terrorism; George Tiller, Randell Terry, Bill O’Reilly, Rachel Maddow, Frank Schaeffer, Army of God, & others – Breakout – Change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH – Our positions still outperforming. 

Religious Terrorist Victim

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"A Voice for Choice" video by "Alligator Cowgirl Productions"

Dr. George Tilller – photo from Goggle

Yesterday many American newspapers headlined the  death of the pro choice abortion Doctor George Tiller who was gunned down by a pro life terrorist in Tiller’s own church. Some significant points on the Anti Abortion terrorists, their groups and supporters.

  • Scott Roeder his accused killer was associated with a group  called – Prayer and Action News
  • Another organization Roeder was associated with  - Operation Rescue.
  • Operation Rescue leader Randell Terry “celebrated” Tiller’s death.
  • Operation Save America is another radical pro life group.
  • The Army of God actually praises people who kill anyone associated with performing abortions.
  • Radial right wing talk show host Bill O’Reilly (and others) constantly denounced Tiller (28 times) with phrases like “Tiller the baby killer” fomenting hatred toward him
  • Frank Schaeffer, author of “Crazy for God”  a former Pro Life leader explains how privately pro life leaders encourage force against pro choice people to change their views. He holds O”Reilly responsible.  His editorial.

For more on this see the Rachel Maddow show video (first 20 minutes) 

Bottom Line -

  • We have a whole lot of politically radical mentally unbalanced people in the USA 
  • We have a whole lot of guns. 
  • We have a whole lot of people who, like O’Reilly, are rewarded for preaching hatred 
  • Fear mongering = better media ratings 

From George Tiller to Barak Obama there are a lot of people who are targets.

 

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +2.60% down
NASDQ +3.06% up
S&P500 +2.58% up
Russell2000 +3.94% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals 

From Monday “This market wants to rally. It sure looks like we will break out of month long trading pattern this week”. The NASDQ (technology) & Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) have taken over the leadership roll. In longer term bull markets the NASDQ and Russell usually lead.

The benchmark S&P 500 not only broke out of its consolidation pattern it closed above its 200 day moving average. Both technically very bullish signs.

Volume is still not cooperating with the price move. Only the NASDQ saw increased and above average volume. The fact that technology instead of financials has taken over leadership is important. To sustain a rally you need “sector rotation” where first one sector leads then another.  For the last 3 months its been only financials.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) rose +1.06%. Financials had been the leading sector and techs (NASDQ) have taken over that position. 

WTIC - Oil prices again rallied +3.42% at $68.58. Energy related stocks kept the rest of the US markets from loosing more ground. As stated before – “Higher oil prices are an indication of economic recovery, but also hurt that recovery because it means energy prices will rise.”

At some point oil prices gushing higher has to negatively hit stocks. I thought $60 was that level, but was obviously wrong. Perhaps $70 and certainly $80 should bring any stock rally to a screeching halt.

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade).  Still rocketing higher (see chart). This is extremely important because one of the greatest obstacles to a worldwide recovery is the lack of trade between countries (protectionism)

Reading The Tea Leaves -  FROM YESTERDAY“Looks like we are going to break out of the consolidation pattern to the upside this week… Tech is driver’s seat.” 

We had our breakout Monday and as long as the major indexes stay above breakout levels Long Term Outlook will stay CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH   It’s the 3rd quarter GDP that matters and we will not start seeing results for that till just before Labor Day. So it looks like the summer could be decent.

As stated before, we can go from -6% GDP to zero and markets should rally.  The question or long term problem is what happens after that.

Positions - (See positions section at top of blog for more)

  •  EWZ - (Brazil) Waiting for a 5 to 10% dip to reenter this ETF +4.00% yesterday
  •  GLD (gold) is one of the hedges against inflation. Down -0.49% yesterday. DGP is a consideration for more aggressive traders – This ETF does @2X what the GLD does
  • FXI - our major position here  rose +5.78% yesterday. Last two days have seen a 9+% gain. Moving too high too fast. Short term traders should consider selling into any big rally today and buying back in n the dip.
  • GEX - alternative energy - +3.09 yesterday 
  • FAS - 3x financials has been working. This position is for traders not investors. +4.55% yesterday
  • QLD – 2x what the NASDQ 100 does. Looking for a dip to get back in. +6.04%

 From yesterday – “Mea Culpa - We have cashed in on some of our longer term positions recently (EWZ, XLF & QLD)(26%, 23% & 16% gains) and these stocks are still moving higher.  Looks like the pullback/entry point  is simply not happening. I thought stock would not move higher on $60 oil. I was wrong. Looks like oil will hit $70 and perhaps $80 before impacting stocks “

 

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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May 28, 2009

Market Updates – North Korea

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

What’s Up? North Korea, data, editorials, and raising the alert levels. How we act here impacts Iran – New daily Positions section for recommended stocks – Reading the Tea Leaves, a broader longer term market outlook.

North Korea Info Page from BBC
Map and links from BBC

 

The British Broadcasting Company is a more independent source for information than most American media.

North Korea’s nuclear test is obviously a very significant problem. US and South Korea have just raised their alert level.

Solutions here are going to have to involve China/world taking a more aggressive role against North Korea.  NYT editorial here. Iran is watching what happens here. Giving into North Korean demands obviously encourages every nation/dictator to become a nuclear power.

 

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -2.05% down
NASDQ -1.11% up
S&P500 -1.90% flat
Russell2000 -2.09% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals 

The NASDQ held onto most of Tuesday’s gains, but the Dow and S&P lost most of those gains. Small cap stocks (Russell 2000) were somewhere in the middle. Volume was again below average. We are stuck in a trading range.

From yesterday – “One interesting pattern is developing – The first trading day of each week recently shown a  a significant move higher and the rest of the week has given up those gains…. Very suspicious over lack of volume.”

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) fell -2.99%. Financials has been the leading sector and as financials go so go the markets.

WTIC - Oil prices again closed over their $60 support level +1.60% at $63.45. Energy related stocks kept the rest of the US markets from loosing more ground. As stated before – “Higher oil prices are an indication of economic recovery, but also hurt that recovery because it means energy prices will rise.”

Fundamentally – Almost every analyst out there says we have a glut of oil and prices should be falling. 

BDIThe Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade).  The momentum here is bullish (see chart). This is extremely important because one of the greatest obstacles to a worldwide recovery is the lack of trade between countries (protectionism)

Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer term pattern is clearly consolidation (last month prices have been stabile) and this is good. The bullish trend that started on March 9th is firmly in place.  

If we break out of this consolidation pattern to the upside the Long Term Outlook will change to Cautiously Bullish. Right now, this senerio looks more likely than a downside breakout.  

  • The BDI rising 
  • Technical consolidation in prices 
  • consumer confidence rising  
  • rising commodity prices 

All this shows an improving economic situation worldwide. One downside to all this stimulus is inflation, but for now the mojo is still with the bulls  Questions - 

  • Could it be that we are unwinding the economic debt of shadow banks in the right way?
  • Are we in the last innings of the housing meltdown?  
  • What happens when we impose rules on the shadow banks?  

 As stated before we have dug a huge economic hole. We can go from  -6% GDP growth to zero and this will be positive for stocks. But what happens after that?

Positions - (See positions section of blog for more)

  •  EWZ - From yesterday “sure looks like it was a mistake to take our substantial profits (+26) in Brazil (EWZ) Brazil reached a new closing high yesterday… looking for a dip (-5 to 10%) to get back in.”
  • Inflation - GLD (gold) is one of the hedges against inflation. Down -0.33% yesterday
  • There are ETF’s that also will move higher if/when inflation occurs. Considering TBT  (explanation later this week), but is has way too high a price right now. This ETF has gone elliptical and will wait for a pull back.
  • FXI - our major position here only rose +0.68% yesterday.
  • GEX – alternative energy – +1.91 yesterday 

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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