Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
October 20, 2011

Getting Fleeced

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Getting Fleeced


Life is Good if you are a Banksta.


Banks are critical to the growth of any economic system.  But if you decimate the regulations and regulators who watch over the financial system then greed runs wild.

Today too big to fail banks with infusions of trillions of dollars from governments/taxpayers continue to threaten worldwide economic systems while still  torturing taxpayers and consumers.

Here’s just the latest -

  • No one goes to jail.  Our understaffed SEC (many scream cut government/cut regulators/cut regulations/cut SEC) who has often been accused of being in bed with bankstas (read Matt Taibbi) just settled with Citibank who was telling clients one thing and defrauding them by doing another.
  • Everyone from US Military Commanders to Apple Computer are held accountable for their actions. Bankstas are special.  They don’t have to mark to market their earnings results.
  • Goldman Sachs earnings (even without mark to market accounting) report is worse than expected and has a revenue LOSS – next day goes up +6%. Apple, who has to use mark to market accounting has a worse than expected earnings report and goes down -6%
  • No one will go to Jail – Price fixing scandal grows as major banks (BAC, C, JPM, DB) are accused of Price Fixing
  • Noted Economist, Prof Mark Hudson explains how European Debt Crisis is “Bankstas waging war against the people of the world”

The 1% at the top benefit enormously from banks. They reap they huge bonuses & salaries, they trade the unregulated Credit Default Swaps, and they run and invest in High Frequency Trades.

Damn it feels good to privatize those gains, socialize the losses and not be held accountable.

What do we sheep do?

(except the Occupy Wall Street protestors)

BAC and other banks save enormously when you use your debit card instead of a check. Now they charge a $5 monthly debt card fee. Again and again and again and again….


We sheep passively get fleeced.


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Stocks

egg splat crack smash broken

Another broken eggs meltdown day. NASDQ and Russell 2000 get clobbered. Dow and S&P spanked. Europe and earnings results to blame. Seeking Alpha’s “must know” stock news for today.

Some Important Points

High Frequency Traders are volumizers. They don’t have a basic fundamental bullish or bearish bias in their algorithms. They pump up the volume and therefore make price moves more distorted.  Technically, many of the algos they use do become more bullish when markets are oversold and bearish when they are overbought.

Fundamentals (example earnings) and Manipulators (example – Central Bank intervention) move markets. Technicals offer guidelines on how those markets will move. (example overbought = bearish, oversold = bullish)

Technical Forecasting Tools

  • Our primary technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell dramatically from 67 to 34.04. Moderately overbought = NEUTRAL/Bearish
  • Our secondary forecasting tool, the Put Call Ratio, fell to 1.12 = NEUTRAL
  • For more on these two indexes click on STRATEGY section on top of page.

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Reading Tea Leaves

  • Our technical bias (MO &PCR), in the short term, is moderately bearish. – Translation – If all the fundamental news was neutral, the market would probably go down

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Paul’s Corner

Wednesday started out on a positive note, then in the afternoon a Fed Beige Book report wasn’t well received and news out of the Euro War Zone turned negative about 2PM and down went the market. Until Greece settles it looks like an unsafe market.

GMCR has sure been getting tossed out like a bad brew these past few days. The trouble started after a David Einhorn presentation. He specializes in short sales.

Read his report.

Even with Wednesday’s soft action on the tech stocks many are starting to show life.  Here are a few to look at:

ATML Atmel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a range of semiconductor integrated circuit (IC) products. The company’s Microcontrollers segment offers various proprietary and standard microcontrollers, such as embedded nonvolatile memory, integrated analog peripherals, and capacitive touch controllers

BSFT BroadSoft, Inc. provides software that enables fixed-line, mobile, and cable service providers to deliver voice and multimedia services over Internet protocol (IP) based networks.

IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp engages in the Internet business in the United States and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Search, Match, ServiceMagic, and Media and Other. The Search segment develops, markets, and distributes various downloadable toolbars; provide search, reference, and content services through its destination search and other Websites, including Ask.com and Dictionary.com; and aggregates

KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries

RAX Rackspace Hosting, Inc. operates in the hosting and cloud computing industry. It provides information technology (IT) as a service, managing Web-based IT systems for small and medium-sized businesses, as well as large enterprises worldwide.

RNOW Rightnow Technologies, Inc. provides cloud-based customer experience software products and services.

SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, a fabless semiconductor company, designs, develops, and supplies a portfolio of multimedia data processing, storage, and transfer solutions primarily for consumer electronics applications

SPRD Spreadtrum Communications, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops, and markets baseband processor and RF transceiver solutions for wireless communications and mobile television markets. SPRD is a Chinese company.

Stocks listed are for education only. No buy sell recommendations are made or inferred.


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Investors411 LONG Term Investments

Each day Paul (change setting from profile to activity) offers up to the minute commentary on the markets & YSL #5 in the Comment section of the blog. Catch his Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday.

Our Hedge Investment - Theory – Technology will do better than financial sector over time. Thus hedge is set to hopefully work well in both up and down markets.

  • Short Financials – Investors411 will use ultra short SKF (opened at 78.91 – sold at 71.51).
  • Long Technology - Investors411 will use ultra long QQQ (tech’s) QLD (opened at 81.13 – sold at 87.48)
  • The last half of this trade was sold or less than a -1% loss = Total lost /gained of entire trade = 0%
  • Why it was sold – See editorial above. Financials have a major advantage NOT using mark to market accounting and continued support from central banks. No trend was developing in this trade.

Taking it on the Chin.

After four very successful YOUR Stock List, the 14 stocks in YSL #5 is taking it on the chin.  The reasons

  • Two days ago CROX had a bad earnings report and fell -39%
  • Yesterday GRMC suffered from a poor forecast by a major analyst and fell -13%

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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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March 31, 2009

Market Updates – Super Tankers

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The more you know about investing, the more you realize that everyone else (especially the more $ they have or control) knows more, has a bigger support team , more computers, better access to data and knows how to bend/manipulate whatever they are investing in.  These wealthy investors/entities/countries are like huge slow moving/turning super tankers. Therefore, your advantage is to recognize which way the fleet of tankers is moving and get their first.

Baltic Dry Sea Index

Nothing could be less exciting than something called the BDI.  But it is one way to measure the FLOW of money or direction our globalized world is moving in. The top 20 economic countries are meeting in London (see comments by “Critic” from London on right side of blog) The G 20 meets later this week and perhaps the drop in the BDI shows how fractured or nationalized the worldwide response to the recession is.  (Lots more below on BDI under fundamentals)

Money Flows

  • To start realize that the standard of living just in the USA has or will drop from 20 to 50%. My guesstimate is combining the loss in home value, investments, jobs and the increase in debt. 
  • Other countries, especially those like England, Iceland, and Eastern European countries whose banks adopted the same “free market” unregulated, over leveraged financial system are in worse shape. 
  • Protectionism, just like in the Great Depression stops money flows, and we are a global economy. The world wide recession’s greatest danger is nationalism stopping money flows.
  • Money flows best when goods are bought and sold. The more people that spend  money the faster it flows. When money is hoarded by an oligarchy or debt is forced on working folks money flows dry up.
  • The major question emerging from our “Great Recession” is how to get the money flowing again and whose going to pay for the past mistakes.

Investment Choices

 Our huge debt, over leveraging and reliance on credit before the meltdown hit has put this country in much worse long term position to fix the problems created. This is why Investors411 recommends using hedges (ETF’s that short the markets – see Position sections) when markets rally to far too fast in the USA.

This is also why Investors411 recommends in Brazil and especially China (see Positions section of blog). They don’t have debt, but do have other resources.

Gold, GLD, is also recommended because in the long term all the money thrown by super takers (governments and other entities) to fix the problem is going to create inflation and devalue currency. This usually makes gold and other commodities more valuable. 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

 

Stocks

 

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -3.27% up
NASDQ -2.81% down
S&P500 -3.48% up
Russell2000 -3.04% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Monday was a significant meltdown day. When you put it together with Friday losses total over 5% for the major US indexes.  The same for most of the rest of the world.  Volume, the chief confirmation factor of a price move was below average (Dow was at its 50 day moving average). Technically, volume is still not confirming the significant price move lower.

The S&P 500 did close just below its 50 day moving average – support level (50 day MA 791 & closing 788-see link to chart on side of blog). Technicals, still look good, but…

Fundamentally, all the companies related to financials from GE to AIG saw what happened to GM. Obama administration got a whole lot tougher than they expected and financial giants worried the same could happen to them. GM was supposed have some sort of special protection because of the close relationship between Democrats and unions.

Remember the bottom line issue is who pays to fix the problem created by the over leveraged crooks in the US financial companies – You (taxpayer), stock/bond holders, employees, some foreign entity, etc. and  how much will each group pay? – Stock markets in the short term go up the more taxpayers pay and the less transparent companies have to be.

Baltic Dry (Sea) Index - (see chart link on side of blog)  This rather obscure chart measures the flow of goods across the world. 

Why its so important is that we are in a world wide recession and if the flow of goods increases, its a sign of things improving. PROTECTIONISM or the lack of trade hinders the flow of money and the creation of wealth.  So when this index starts to deteriorate we have a problem.  

The BDI is also important because it is more of a leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator.  Check it out and compare it to the major US indexes. It’s not perfect, but the BDI usually moves in one direction before worldwide stock indexes. Why not if the flow of trade dries up a nation’s economy will suffer.

Here’s the problemthe BDI since 3/10/09 has done nothing but decline – from 2298 to 1646. Very bad news for world trade and stock market bulls. Before we had our three week rally this month the BDI was slowly building off a bottom around 660 and rose significantly in February an then continued up in March.  

Reading the Tea Leaves – In the shorter term – Thursday the gov’t committee (Its called something like FASBY) meets to supposedly change Mark to Market accounting.  This should give financials a boost.  But longer term watch the BDI, if it keeps falling so will worldwide stocks.

Long Term Outlook CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 12, 2009

Market Updates – Mr Ponzi

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

If it weren’t for Mr Ponzi we’d now be calling it Madoff schemes instead of Ponzi schemes. The mantra for decades has been – leave “free markets” to regulate themselves. What a colossal mistake. From  the Madoff fraud to the AIG scam we, our children, and our grandchildren are going to be paying for this mistake for a long long time.

  

Charles Ponzi

 

Mr Ponzi

Major news networks this AM (EST) are following Bernie Madoff on his way to court apparently for a guilty plea to 11 counts of fraud and money laundering. Huge media contingent & cable  outlets carrying this live. The Madoff case has absolutely destroyed the reputation of the SEC as well as the savings of thousands.

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BusinessWeek – Resource

This magazine/blog has always been a great source on business news. While any business magazine has an obvious slant, it does almost constantly give the other side.  Example: Bob Kuttner often writes for them. Their blog has come up with with a way to track and share business topics on the web. Today for example you can find 429 new articles on Obama’s stimulus plan or 106 on behavior targeting. Its on the top right of their home page.

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Market Manipulation

Jim Cramer, the popular CNBC (financial channel) host of Mad Money has openly admitted to market manipulation in a 2006 interview. In fact he brags about it. See video. If he did it then…

One major reason Investor’s 411 advises investments in Exchange Traded Funds is they invest in large market baskets of stocks. These market baskets, because of their size are difficult to manipulate. Hedge funds and other major players can easily manipulate individual stocks – the less liquid the stock the more easy it is to manipulate.

If you watch or use CNBC (the major financial network) as a source (I often have it on as background) please take what they say with a grain block of salt.

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The Rich Get Poorer.

Who lost the least money? Forbes has come out with its list of the worlds richest people. Gates and Buffett have switched positions and Mr. Softy’s founder is now #1. The complete list here

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Accounting Systems

A huge debate is raging on how to account for money – Mark to Market.  Those who want a “freer” system that allows for more flexibility think current values are unfair because people/investors are panicked. They want to change or eliminate the system. These folks believe if we suspend Mark to Market it will calm the markets. 

The other side says take away transparency of Mark to Market and the cheater’s will flourish again. You’d get “fantasy” accounting.  This would also protect the bad banks, but it would punish the good banks who played by the rules. Hearings in front of Congress today on Mark to Market.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Stocks

-

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.06% down
NASDQ +0.98% down
S&P500 +0.24% down
Russell2000 -0.39% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

US and many world markets consolidated gains of Tuesday or traded flat. The NASDQ (often thought of as a proxy for tech) stocks did gain almost 1%. Volume  dropped. This is to be expected after a huge gain. The NASDQ continues to outperforming other major indexes.

On the upside the first major technical resistance level is S&P 741. Remember this was the big support level on the way down.  The SPX (see chart at the side of blog) is now at 721. So we have about 3% wiggle room before serious resistance is encountered.  If prices do not rise or have the momentum to test this level within the next few days, then we’re in trouble.

Short term – oversold indicators are pointing to a rally. 741 is the line in the sand.

For a longer term look at a prospective oversold bear market rally see yesterday’s Investors 411.

Bottom Line for Long term Investors - Best advise – this is a market you should be dating and not married to. (see Postions section of blog)

 

Long Term Outlook = BEARS RULE

See STRATEGY, POSITIONS, OVERVIEW  & ARCHIVES sections of blog for more

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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