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Last Night In Iowa…

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There was an Election

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All the sheep, ready to get fleeced, were breathlessly watching network media for the results and the same old analysts spin

The Rolling Stone’s  Matt Taibbi found

The Real News Yesterday…

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Came From Montana

(Click on photo for Link)

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You can spend your life following the herd of  sheep,  but maybe reality is something different?

What happened in Montana?

Click on the Montana Mountain

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

• Europe, again  lead Wall Street bulls by their nose rings to a rally yesterday. To find out how Europe will move US markets today See overnight data below.

• Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +46.65 . 50DMA at +3.65 A wee bit of bearishness (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) = NEUTRAL/bearish

• Major news impacting everything oil related is the tougher sanctions imposed by US on Iran. Iran’s currency fell a massive 12%. Their Central Bank intervened and pushed the currency up 20%. This is major trade war that has consequences.

Unfortunately the Tea Party and Republicans  have a NO COMPROMISE stand on cutting only areas like social security, education, medicare etc  that target the middle class, seniors and the poor.

Democrats are willing to compromise on these issues as long as wealthy Americans also share the burden. For every $3 in tax cuts you tax wealthiest Americans and mega corporations $1.

The above inspired by

• Sunday’s blog on OWS
• Matt Taibbi rebuttal to David Brooks

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The Big Lie

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A Photo Essay

Pepper Spray

84 Year Old OWS Protestor Dorli Rainey

From Seattle Pi

“Icon” Portland Oregon OWS Photo

Students at UC Berkley OWS from Aggie TV

You Tube – Short Video & Long Video

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Criminal Prosecutions of

Financial Institutions

Et Tu Barack Obama

The above inspired by:

• OWS “Banks got Bailed Out, We Got Sold Out” Chant
• A Deal That Wouldn’t Sting NYT Gretchen Morgenson
• How To Prevent A Housing Recovery Seeking Alpha’s Bruce Judson
• 6,000,000 foreclosures since 2007 and another 4,000,000 in the works MSNBC
• Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail? Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi
• Some on the left who believe only right wing politicians are in bed with shadow “banksta’s”
• Mostly because from college students to 84 year olds – there are those willing to sacrifice and fight for what they believe in.

Paul & I will look over and choose the best 10 to 15.

5 of the last 6 YSL’s have toasted the S&P 500

YOU made the Difference

Friday at 4:00 is the closing date.

Problem is GMCR (chart) was much more volatile. It started the year at 35, moved to 115 then fell to 70 where we placed the Put/Call hedge trade. GMCR almost always had a significant move after its earnings.

• A combination Call at 57.5 = $119 Put at 52.5 = $77 totals $196. So 196 + 250 (55 +/-57.5 or 53.5) totals $446. You’d need very roughly an 8% move to make money, but risk much less – $196

Major CAUTION – I HAVE NOT HAD A LOT OF EXPERIENCE AT THIS AND I’M GOING TO CHECK THESE NUMBERS WITH A COUPLE PEOPLE THIS AM.

With GMCR you could feel the pressure build. There was a war on between bulls and bears on GMCR. I was not as concerned with the details. This is minor in comparison.

I’m at best luke warm to a combination trade. Combination risks less $. If I do trade this I will announce it in the comments section of the blog before 1:00PM EST.

Wording of above also subject to change.

• Everyone from US Military Commanders to Apple Computer are held accountable for their actions. Bankstas are special.  They don’t have to mark to market their earnings results.

• Goldman Sachs earnings (even without mark to market accounting) report is worse than expected and has a revenue LOSS – next day goes up +6%. Apple, who has to use mark to market accounting has a worse than expected earnings report and goes down -6%

• No one will go to Jail – Price fixing scandal grows as major banks (BAC, C, JPM, DB) are accused of Price Fixing

• Noted Economist, Prof Mark Hudson explains how European Debt Crisis is “Bankstas waging war against the people of the world”

The 1% at the top benefit enormously from banks. They reap they huge bonuses & salaries, they trade the unregulated Credit Default Swaps, and they run and invest in High Frequency Trades.

Damn it feels good to privatize those gains, socialize the losses and not be held accountable.

What do we sheep do?

(except the Occupy Wall Street protestors)

BAC and other banks save enormously when you use your debit card instead of a check. Now they charge a $5 monthly debt card fee. Again and again and again and again….

We sheep passively get fleeced.

• All eyes on Sundays big meeting on European Debt

Taking it on the Chin.

After four very successful YOUR Stock List, the 14 stocks in YSL #5 is taking it on the chin.  The reasons

• Two days ago CROX had a bad earnings report and fell -39%
• Yesterday GRMC suffered from a poor forecast by a major analyst and fell -13%

The Vampire Squid

The People vs Goldman Sach’s

Matt Taibbi back with another editorial in the Rolling Stone. Matt’s the guy who immortalize GS as a Vampire Squid sucking on the face of humanity. He just keeps getting better and better. You can be damn sure that none of the cheerleading financial channels will dare to have him on.

Here’s Some of the money quotes

“Stealing by corporate America is practically a national pastime.” The ruling wealthy plutocracy that benefits from GS rules the USA. Almost untouchable. Yet their financed media finds ways of pitting the middle class who they use and abuse against each other and the poor.

Vast amounts of wealth have been transfered to the wealthy elite over decades while they focus/fear monger you on racial prejudice, patriotism, religious bias, jealousy, greed, endless wars, cutting everything except the aristocracy.

TREND – As other countries develop their middle class, the consumers of the shrinking middle class in the USA will become even less important.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a whopping +0.96%yesterday. Third major move higher in 5 day broke through the 50 day moving average. It’s the major reason stocks fell yesterday. Long term trend is bearish, but the short term trend is clearly bullish. For stocks = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on fell dramatically to +1.98. Back squarely in the middle. = Neutral

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Paul’s Corner

We were all set up for our 4^th day of the rally, futures looked good and then after the opening bell, the heat mat of the S&P 500 turned almost solid red. “Humph looks like a trying day coming“. Reports of a growth in inventory of crude and gasoline started a slide in commodities. The EURO fell with concerns over Europe’s debt crisis, the dollar rose and you guessed it the market took a hit.

YSL 4 had mixed trading and nothing gross happened to the group. SPRD, CPHD and SAP all had a good day.  SPRD  needs to settle down and base a bit before a buy would be safe. RNOW dropped below the 50 but it did that on low volume.  Volume on many of the YSL 4 stocks was normal or even low.

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As I often state, I use HGSI software as my primary stock analysis program. It has great interactive charts, the best screening in the business, the ability to make your own groups and indexes along with excellent support.

Next week May 18th Jeffrey Scott a HGSI user is going to present a HGSI Webinar and will show how he uses HGSI in his successful trading. I invite any of you who are interested in a quality analysis program  and building your trading skills to watch the webinar.

The Power Of HGSI Webinar May 18th from 8:00pm to 9:30pm EDT Registration is required and the webinar is free.

See LINK

Please note, I am a HGSI user, I pay a monthly fee for the program and I receive no compensation for recommending the product.

*****

These past few months have not been easy to trade with a full stomach. Folks are asking for longer term trades,  all of the stocks on YSL have the quality for long term trades. UFS Domtar, a paper company was added to Your Stock List on August 23, 2010. Priced about 57.15 it closed yesterday at 104.26, with an 87% gain in 9 months. It also has a small dividend.  Common stocks can be nice long term investments. It looks like UFS should have not been removed from YSL.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

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Editor’s note – Click on POSITIONS at top  of blog and scroll down for YSL 4 & 4.5 Stocks mentioned above or LINK here

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Dividend Stocks

Caution - The Critic (in the comments section of the blog) reminds that the two high dividend stocks NLY and ANGC are too far above their 50 day moving averages to buy now and longer term investors should wait to buy the dip.

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – From Yesterday – MO has been an amazing accurate forecasting tool for the past year.  It saying we are getting near a technical top – Yesterday saw a major market reversal led by commodities (silver and oil)

Investors411 mantra has been to wait for the MO to get down toward -60 to buy.

The commodities trade (commodities rally of many months) is unwinding as the dollar goes higher.  Speculators, hedge funds, huge institutions etc. who have built up major positions are unwinding those positions. It took many months to build these positions in commodities and the dollar. It will probably take more than a week to unwind these positions.

UUP – The tracking ETF for the dollar still the index to watch.

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

I have a position = Either I own it personally or a member of my family does.  I also manage an account for a non profit organization.

The Investors411 Portfolio – The stocks in YSL #4/4.5, REMX, plus all trades mentioned  in this section. (example the SLV and ZLS trades mentioned in April and May) AGNC & NLY will be added on a dip

• REMX – Still trading above 50 day moving average which would be a buying point if your interested in owning rare earth mining companies.
• ZSL (double short silver) – A potential trade today. Silver is just a % point of two from its last week low. Silver bears are going to try break the bulls today. If they do you might catch a significant downside move.  All of this depends on the dollar. Dollar/Euro trade is at a major support level. Bad news in Europe could set off a chain of events that drive Silver and oil lower.  Not a solid trade with and established trend, but one with potential because momentum with bears. Will mention in comments section if I am about to make trade.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

You might think the above is the “monster” Bernie Madoff, but please consider a far bigger monster – the 5 largest US shadow banks.

The Slow Motion Coup D’etat

There has been a slow motion Coup D’etat in the USA.

You could argue it began in the 80′s when we the US oligarchy’s wealth started to grow and working class Americans were pushed further into debt. However, now its become an outright white collar criminal enterprise that along with a compliant Federal bank and government is harvesting trillions of dollars and placing a crushing burden on working class Americans.

Even the loan financial figure, who had nothing to do with the 2008 financial meltdown, jailed Ponzi scheme crook Bernie Madoff warns in the New Yorker – “It’s unbelievable. Goldman … no one has any criminal convictions—the whole new regulatory reform is a joke. The whole government is a Ponzi scheme.”

Matt Taibbi calls Goldman Sachs - A great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.

Its unfair to single out Goldman from the other 4 major “to big to fail” shadow banks or the network of 21 primary dealers that our central bank (The Fed) and most federal politicians protect.

What’s a safe long term investment out there for working Americans?

• Your home? 2008 sure crushed that
• Your pension plan? See Yankee Bob’s comments on Wisconsin’s 100% self funded pension plan yesterday (scroll down)
• Your Social Security?
• The US dollar? – (see below)
• The manipulated stock and bond markets?

None of this is safe from partisan destruction or government backed shadow bank raids.

Many economists, including Robert Reich, track the redistribution of wealth in America. In 1980, the weathiets 1% held 9% of the wealth now its over 20%.

Now we have the 5 too big to fail shadow banks with an almost infinite liquidity from the Fed, and no oversight doing whatever they want. (Aside – Hush don’t tell anybody but guess where most of Ka Daffy’s $30 billion in frozen assets, along with countless drug cartel billions are?). Yes other sectors of the US economy are the same. But, its the financials that lead because they are leveraged.

God help our debt ridden butts when one of the crooked too big to fail banks goes belly up. So, the oligarchy will keep them on the unregulated dole till we run out of bonds, credibility or whatever you want to call it.

“Our government teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.” Judge Louis D. Brandeis

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building reasserting itself as the dominant trading pattern.
• Libya/oil disruption still has potential to disrupt trading pattern. Until the oil fields start burning its impact on stocks should diminish.
• Aside from KA DAFFY no oil dictators seem in danger today
• From Seeking Alpha – Like the title Was That It for The Correction? & author has a decent sector analysis chart at end.
• Fed and Buffett were jaw boning the markets yesterday.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell yesterday -0.50%. Short term support level around $77 was broken.  Let’s see if it holds or confirms the breakdown today. For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to to +16.97 Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Getting close to +30 resistance level. Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

There is a significant change going on in the way America is viewed.

Virtually every time there is a major worldwide crisis, investors flood into the safety of the dollar. This time the dollar has fallen and yesterday broke its short term support level.  Perhaps any analysis of this is thrown off by the Fed’s manipulation or liquidity dump. But a falling dollar in the short term is usually good for stocks. Longer term it shows a lack of confidence in the USA.

A little wiggle room in the MO till strong resistance at +30.

What to watch today

USO - oil prices

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. As long as it hangs in above that everything OK

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Positions

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Buy the dip. Why not its a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding.  Hopefully longer term holding. Stop still set about 2% below rising 50 day moving average. Will buy more on dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Many web sites that focus on precious metals are calling this a manipulated commodity. A buy the dip ETF

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set at @ 2 % below rising 50 DMA. Again would buy a dip

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Economic Bottom Line

Imagine if every top narcotics official had a $2,000,000 a year job waiting for them with the drug cartels after they retired. What would happen?

(paraphrasing Matt Taibbi on shadow finance and politics in USA)

That’s essentially what we have in the USA. Not in narcotics, but in finance/business. Not only is the money that oligarchs provide financing political campaigns dominated by business, it also dominates the retirement and appointments of top  ranking elected and appointed officials who are supposed to regulate Wall Street.

Over the weekend NYT’s Joe Nocera published yet another list of Wall Street crooks who are too in bed with our political leaders and the regulatory agencies to even be made to say they are sorry for what happened. (thanks to Popeye for referencing this in comments section of blog)

Charles Ferguson, whose film Inside Job last night won the Oscar for best documentary again stated the obvious – the economic crisis is a multi trillion dollar colossal crime perpetrated on the working-class masses by a greedy few – yet no one goes to jail.

It may infect more Republicans than Democrats, but the far more important point is that self serving corruption dominates BOTH political parties.

In 2008 a great financial and economic problem became apparent. Trillion of dollars has been lost and additional trillions thrown at this problem, yet  unlike other financial meltdowns, no one has been held accountable. Virtually nothing has been done to structurally change or investigate the root cause.

Our politicians can not get at the root cause because they would have to admit corruption and put the powerful status quo at risk of loosing their power. The very power that insures the politician’s election and future wealth.

Jeffry Sachs, of Columbia University, realizes that long term sustainable development is no longer possible in the USA. Both parties are financed by the  big money of the wealthy elite whose lies are shouted at us so thick and fast that we can only hear the drumbeat of propaganda and slogans.

So the malaise of a temporary recovery in the selected sectors of the casino capitalism that befit the wealthy elite continues as different economic bubbles continue to build.

If your one of the financial masters of the universe whose income tops $2 million a year, the rest of us in a globalized world are little more than cows that eat grain, providing milk and eventually get slaughtered. Chinese cows, Indian cows, American cows – what’s the difference? Sometimes the young cows wake up – like in Egypt . They may not win, but at least they had the guts to try.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble.

• Once again stocks rallied in below average volume. – Same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building reasserting itself as the dominant trading pattern.
• Libya did manage to disrupt last week. Until the oil fields start burning its impact on stocks should diminish.

Below is a repeat from past Investors411. It will be placed in the strategy section of blog until it is not longer relevant.

• Mantra #1 - till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. Another term for this is quantitative easing or QE #2.
• Mantra #2 - 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
• You can NOT compare, use many technical tools, or historic data to evaluate this market because it is being manipulated higher by our Fed or central bank and the majority of volume is soaked up by HFT’s chancing imbalances.
• Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing - Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose  Friday +0.29%.  Dollar has bounced off a short term support level around $77.  Let’s see if it holds today.  If it falls bulls get the momentum back, but until then= Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to to +3.17. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Buy the Dip – Same plate that was served over a week ago is still there.

Reading The Tea Leaves

The same Old Song - But we obviously have a new fundamental factor – revolutions in oil rich dictatorships - This could alter everything. Some truly bizarre statistics that have me very concerned.

• In times of crisis everyone usually piles into the dollar – They haven’t
• The Saudi’s promised to make up for the lack of Libya’s supply problem. But you can’t replace “sweet” crude with gunky oil. Strange this is not impacting markets more.

Paul did a great job over last week and called the dip perfectly. As stated many times +/-30 has become the new short term support/resistance level for the MO (see above.)

What to watch today

USO - oil prices

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. As long as it hangs in above that everything OK

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Positions

Not settled in enough after vacation to make a call on anything except buying oil ETF on dips. Too much global volatility.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Buy the dip. Why not its a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding.  Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set about 2% below rising 50 day moving average.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set at @ 2 % below rising 50 DMA.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

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When Will The Stock Bubble Burst?

Here’s my read of the tea leaves on YOUR  most asked question

First, stocks crashed because our banksters ran an over leveraged casino capitalist banking system that caused a stock meltdown in 2008/early 2009.

It’s important to realize how little was done to fix this problem. In fact, unlike our last huge savings and loan’s crisis (circa 1980) when over 1000 banksters went to jail, NONE directly associated with this crisis went to jail (Bernie Madoff was indirectly related)

Instead the banksters got a huge TARP loan, the ability to borrow money at almost 0% interest,  quantitative easing and other perks from our government and the Fed bank. This package deal is in the trillions of dollars.

No jail time, a few weak rules, and a tsunami of fresh capital. The shadow bankster’s, and their politicians are that powerful.

So basically the same corruption continues to grow.

Matt Taibbi in the Rolling Stone has a must read piece on this – Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail (Warning – Some appropriate graphic language in editorial, but he goes case and point through the whitewash)

Rolling Stone photo

Our shadow banksters along with a huge deficit is the foundation of the problem.

Stock Bubble – Tomorrow

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS -  Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding/manipulated stock bubble.

• Bubbliciously, once again stocks rallied in below average volume. NASDQ was a bit above average.
• Mantra #1 – till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. Another term for this is quantitative easing or QE #2.
• Mantra #2 – 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
• You can NOT compare, use many technical tools, or historic data to evaluate this market because it is being manipulated higher by our Fed or central bank.
• Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing - Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.
• “Understanding Inflation and Why Little is Good for Equities & The Economy” by Jeff Miller

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell  yesterday  -0.45%. There has been the start of a  short three week bullish dollar,/bearish stocks pattern.  - For stocks yesterday was bullish but the new developing pattern is a problem = Neutral/bearish
• McClellan Index – (MO [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to to +27.22. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Stocks outlook = Bearish/Neutral

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Bulls Remain Undaunted – Photo from Dave’s Daily

Reading The Tea Leaves

The same Old Song – A manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed.

The MO  has worked very well over the last few months as a short term forcasting tool. The MO has made +30 a significant barrier. (see chart) So if our manipulated stock market gets too far above +30 I’d start exercising more caution.

The dollar correlation has not been as exact, but has roughly worked. So unless we see the dollar dropping significantly, we should see stocks consolidate today.

Longer term-  As long as housing prices are hurting and unemployment is high the Fed should keep flooding liquidity into the market. This greatly benefits the big shadow banks that have not had to reform the casino capitalism that had and now continues to make them rich.  All of this is bubble-iciously good for stocks.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high and continues to trade above those levels.

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Positions

Commodities are being driven higher by inflation fears in emerging markets. The Fed’s POMO program/QE#2 is a/the major driver of this.

Considering an even higher leveraged ETF for small cap stocks TNA (see below)

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip today

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks) Would add TNA on dip

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.“ (YSL#4 is under construction.)

The Vampire Squid is even growing because hidden corporate cash is now shaping the very fabric of our democracy.

In short Taibbi points out that America has become “a paradise for high class theives“ and congress their “willing lapdogs“ who’ve hijacked the American workers into backing policies that favor the rich. He identifies the godmother of the “grifter class” as Ayn Rand and her chief disciple Alan Greenspan.

You can read a lot more about the Vampire Squid and others stuck on your face, the American media, lobbyists and most politicans in Griftopeia – Taibbi’s new book.

“The financial crisis that exploded in 2008 isn’t past but prologue. The stunning rise, fall, and rescue of Wall Street in the bubble-and-bailout era was the coming-out party for the network of looters who sit at the nexus of American political and economic power. The grifter class—made up of the largest players in the financial industry and the politicians who do their bidding—has been growing in power for a generation, transferring wealth upward through increasingly complex financial mechanisms and political maneuvers. The crisis was only one terrifying manifestation of how they’ve hijacked America’s political and economic life.”

Source

Again the Mantra for the last week - “Not making any specific move until dollar breaks out of its range. I would look at a breakout higher for the dollar, and a corresponding fall in stocks and the MO to oversold as a buying opportunity for long term investors. “Looks like next Wednesday Fed meeting is the big event.”

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”