Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 2, 2010

Vampire Squid

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Vampire Squid/Goldman Sachs

It’s election day across America. The people will VOTE. But there are many of us that will argue that the winner will not be red or blue, but “Puke Green”.  One such author is the Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi who has likened Wall Street Shadow bank Goldman Sachs to “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity.”

What has GS done to deserve such a title? They have been there every step of the way as we deregulated the financial industry .

  • It started with GS CEO Robert Rubin, Clinton’s Treasury Secretary, whose protegee was Larry (Darth Vader) Summers that helped deregulate the rules governing financials.
  • It was another GS CEO Henry Paulson who bailed out the too big to fail shadow banks (a necessary evil
  • It was Larry Summers, Tim Geithner who many believe are in the pocket of the Too Big To Fail investment banks (GS is obviously one of these). They fought agains Democrats that tried to make  substantives reform like reinstating Volker rule and ending too big to fail.
  • Of course, the entire Republican Party is kissing cousins with the Vampire Squid.”

The Vampire Squid is even growing because hidden corporate cash is now shaping the very fabric of our democracy.

In short Taibbi points out that America has become a paradise for high class theives and congress their willing lapdogs who’ve hijacked the American workers into backing policies that favor the rich. He identifies the godmother of the “grifter class” as Ayn Rand and her chief disciple Alan Greenspan.

You can read a lot more about the Vampire Squid and others stuck on your face, the American media, lobbyists and most politicans in GriftopeiaTaibbi’s new book.

“The financial crisis that exploded in 2008 isn’t past but prologue. The stunning rise, fall, and rescue of Wall Street in the bubble-and-bailout era was the coming-out party for the network of looters who sit at the nexus of American political and economic power. The grifter class—made up of the largest players in the financial industry and the politicians who do their bidding—has been growing in power for a generation, transferring wealth upward through increasingly complex financial mechanisms and political maneuvers. The crisis was only one terrifying manifestation of how they’ve hijacked America’s political and economic life.”

Source

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.06% down
NASDQ -0.10% down
S&P +0.09% down
Russell 2000 -0.68% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Only one more day before the Fed announces what it will do with the QE2. Same prediction that has held up for the last week remains. Stocks remain flat until the dollar speaks. Wednesday is the day the Fed speaks on QE2 and therefore the dollar.

Investors411 has a long and successful  history of investing in emerging economic markets while the US growth was weaker. Now, the Fed has to inject more cash into a flatline economy through QE 2. This should help big US companies that grow though exports by acting as a damper on the dollar. Here’s some suggestion by a Seeking Alpha author on RTF’s that benefit from QE 2

What Will the Fed do? What Will the Fed do? What Will the Fed do?

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell +0.35% yesterday. Dollar currently moving sideways within a range (see below). Back in middle of consolidation range. Trend for stocks = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries]Fell a -1.12% yesterday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. The BDI has been overshadowed by the dollar moves.  Longer term Pattern now= Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Basically flat closed at -15.27% yesterday. Six week trend (see chart) is starting looking bearish but location still = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Again Mantra for last two weeks -“Any move in UUP (tracking ETF for dollar) above 22.7 resistance is trouble for stocks. Any move below 22.18 support level is good for stocks. A breakout of either the support or resistance level will tell you who wins the dollar war.” UUP closed at 22.41

Bottom Line = Most technic al analysts I look at are bearish. All significant indicators in NEUTRAL and Long Term Outlook still Slightly Positive, gives bulls slight advantage.

However, All eyes on Fed and how big QE2 is going to be. What the Fed says and does about QE 2 Wednesday will probably set the course for stocks and settle the dollar war.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • SSO (2x what S&P does).

Again the Mantra for the last week - “Not making any specific move until dollar breaks out of its range. I would look at a breakout higher for the dollar, and a corresponding fall in stocks and the MO to oversold as a buying opportunity for long term investors. “Looks like next Wednesday Fed meeting is the big event.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 19, 2010

Wall St. vs Main St.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Warren

Elizabeth Warren – fighting to save the Consumer Protection Agency.

Wall Street vs Main Street

Wall Street is toasting Main Street. You’d have thought even after the huge financial meltdown that almost shattered banking worldwide the situation would change. It hasn’t -beyond preventing a worldwide meltdown. The situation in the USA has not improved. Back in 2009 Investors411 emphasized that economic problems – especially financials were “far far far far far bigger than first imagined.” This is especially true for the USA.

Because of globalization, and almost no financial rules governing shadow banks – what’s good for Wall Street is NOT going to be good for Main Street. Unfortunately, Americans are looking for quick solutions from politicians that cater far more to Wall Street.

The bottom line - America has grown for decades into a two tiered country -Wealthy vs Poor. This divide is increasing.

Matt Taibbi vs. David Brooks

These are two editorialists often quoted in Investors411 – Taibbi’s reply to a Brooks editorial Some real fireworks here.

Consumer Financial Protection Agency

Elizabeth Warren’s fight to save Main Street from the Shadow Banks headlines the Huffington Post blog. Ironically in the tight  Senate battle in Massachusetts the Republican has promised to  be the 41st vote to block this and health care.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.94% up
NASDQ -1.24% up
S&P500 -1.08% up
Russell2000- -1.31% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

This was our second big volume decline within 4 trading days.  This time the volume was even more significant.  Usually somewhere between two and four of these “distribution” days where a lot of investors are running for cover signals a reversal in overall market outlook.  So we could have a substantial reversal (5 to 10%).

Intel’ s, The chip making giant, earnings report was the spark for the reversal. The stock itself was down @ 3%. But what set the stage for the reversal was the weaker than expected monthly jobs report.

Bulls do have amo on their side for US stocks (NOT the economy) to move higher.  The outlook for a quick economic recovery is looking  bleaker and that means the Fed will keep interest rates lower longer, Money (unless you want near zero rates) has no where else to go but stocks. Also, and meaningful health care reform is either going to collapse or be extremely week.  This will give a huge boost to stocks (not economics) that profit off health care.

  • McClellan Index at -10.33 = Just slightly oversold.    @+60 or overbought territory & @-60 or oversold. This Oscillator has broken through strong BEARISH support @ zero (see chart). This is in the short term for stocks. NOTE -That if stocks  reach -60 or more this would be a BUYING opportunity.
  • Baltic Dry Index – The BDI has moved higher for the last three weeks.  This is good news for world trade and especially China.
  • US dollar – The dollar had been dropping for over 3 weeks and this had helped stocks. This all changed last Friday as the dollar soared +0.61% For more on all charts see STRATEGY sections

FEARLESS FORECAST – Bears paw prints are everywhere. Volume is starting to confirm the downside move. Between June and Nov. of last year 6 times the McClellan Oscillator reached -60.  It has stayed above -30 for over 2 1/2 months now. This does indicate a bullish stock bias. But we are long overdue for some sort of downside move. Forecast = Down week. However, the case for any meaningful reform from health care to financials (shadow banks) grows weaker each day.  This should temper any stock toasting

The Massachusetts Senate election will have an impact on stocks. Basically the Stock market likes gridlock and if the Republican wins the Dems will loose their 60 vote majority in congress and nothing will get done for at least the last 3 years of the Obama presidency. This means no meaningful regulations. It is a debatable point that Democrats alone would enact reform.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Proposed schedule (sorry, again, limited time this AM – took the Red eye flight from California) Will cover Stocks & ETF’s tomorrow.

NB – Investor411 is going to make few moves unless we get to very oversold or overbought positions

Weekly schedule remains – (Since Monday was a holiday  charts were the focus of today)

  • Tuesday and Thursday – Stock Watch List
  • Monday Fearless Weekly Forecast and focus on multiple charts
  • Wed. & Friday – ETF’s Watch List

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 12, 2010

Radicals? or are they Right?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

John Pilger as he appears in the New Statesman

John Pilger, photo from his website

Radicals? Or Are They Right?

Yesterday several of you made comments and suggested listening to views that mainstream US media ignores or would call Left wing radicalism.  Are they Right?

  • Jeremy Scahill – (from Sherwehe ) – An Independent journalist – We really have 189,000 troops & mercenaries on the ground in Afghanistan now. “Obama administration blows the Bush administration out of the privatized water.” LINK
  • Matt Taibbi(from M ) – Rolling Stone reporter on The Great American Bubble Machine How unregulated free markets have caused financial disaster. (yep we’ve referenced him before) LINK
  • John Pilger - (from Bob Sadinsky ) Australian who twice won British journalist of the year award. “What Matters Above All is The Class One Serves” Obama says one thing and does another.  One powerful video LINK & “Obama’s most audacious lie is that Afghanistan today is a “safe haven” for al-Qaeda’s attacks on the West. LINK

I know that there are many of you who read this blog and are more conservative or major Obama supporters – You often email me. If you remain silent one can only assume that YOU think Scahill, Taibbi, and Pilger are right. These three authors have pretty much shredded Obama’s foreign and financial policies , and even called him a “liar” and “hypnotist.” Are they right?

Did the US military launch a quit coup in the USA and is Obama part of it?

Note if you have technical trouble in publishing a response on the blog send it to me and I’ll publish it.

Jeremy Scahillmatt taibbi

Jeremy & Matt

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.43% flat
NASDQ -0.21% down
S&P500 +0.32% down
Russell2000- -0.09% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Again a late rally lifted stocks.

  • McClellan Index at +31.70 = A bit overbought.   There is still some wiggle room for US stocks to move even higher before they reach @+60 or overbought territory -  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold.

The McClellan Oscillator is showing less room for upside gain.   However, technically this chart shows a series of 4 higher highs and a solid base at zero – It’s bounced 3 times off this number and is now a short term buying point.

Earnings season has begun – Alcoa’s report disappoints  and Chevron warned. Not good fundamental news to start the day

The long term bull is trend is firmly in place, but we are too close to overbought territory. Bigger risk to the downside in the short term. Look for US markets to get spanked today

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Bought a 1% of portfolio position in IMAX – at 13.9

YOUR Watch List of Stocks . Unfortunately, I’m not daily checking these stocks out. Ideally, you’d like to McClellan index below zero (the further the better) and these all would be better buys. We developed these potential stocks about two weeks ago. Check old Investors411 for more.

  • IMAX
  • SEED Broke out to new high yesterday Missed buying opportunity as the stock formed a short term base – Mistake Would buy a dip
  • AAPL forming a base near top. If markets move higher so should AAPL
  • AMZN a buy the dip opportunity. Again will move with market.
  • HMIN Recently broke out to a new high Possible buy the dip.
  • CAAS Exploded to new high last week in huge volume. Too over extended to buy
  • PCLN Possible buy the dip opportunity
  • F Huge rally. Way too over extended to buy
  • DRWI

SEED, HMIN, PCLN, & AAPL seem like best choices – But would like overall markets to be more over sold before buying. SEED is the stock that seems to have the best possibility this second. I’m not as comfortable with individual stocks as ETF’s.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 9, 2009

The Great American Bubble Machine

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Photo

Illustration by Victor Juhasz

Note – No Updates for rest of week

Health Care

Democrats are touting unanimity on a health care proposal that will cover more people. LINK

A step in the right direction. However, this is a huge disappointment for those of us who see every other industrialized democracy have some sort of public health care option. The voters of these (a couple dozen)  countries have voted to KEEP this option because like public education it works .

Something is better than nothing, but this is a clear victory for capitalist greed (the kind that creates economic bubbles – in this case rising health care costs and not covering 50 million of our fellow American men women and children over what’s best for the common good.  Another win for Greed is good unregulated capitalism

Education – Yikes

"A report by the American Association of State Colleges and Universities indicates that the US is one of only two nations on Earth in which people aged 25 to 34 have lower educational attainment than their parents. " LINK Again, over decades we have cut funding for education relative to things like executive or CEO pay. Another win for Greed is good unregulated capitalism.

The Ugly Economic News

(continued from Good, Bad & …)

It simple – We have failed to fix the problem that created a meltdown or build further bubbles .

In underfunded education, not fixing Health Care, & and failure to fix our financial system – unregulated capitalist greed growing.  The overextended, nation building empire’s decline is accelerating.  Other countries have growing middle classes and ours is shrinking into a society of haves and have nots.

Tom Friedman & other more responsible capitalists have joined those of us who have been beating the drums of our crumbling structure and ways to fix it. But right now we are Married to the Mob of capitalist who simply put GREED first.

The Great American Bubble Machine – by perhaps the best economics reporter out there Matt Taibbi LINK

Bottom Line in Investments The reason Investors411 has a five year winning record in investments is in choosing countries and sectors that  are building their middle classes and by paying careful attention to the destructive (bubble building) aspect of US  unregulated capitalism/greed.


KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.00% up
NASDQ -0.76% up
S&P500 -1.03% up
Russell2000- - 0.97% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar rose a significantly Tuesday and stocks fell (see $USD below). Tuesday -  The fact that the dollar went no where and stocks went nowhere means the dollar’s inverse relationship to US stocks is back on. The dollar is still the #1 forecasting tool.

Volume Our former #1 forecasting toll was up and at or above average. Rising, above average volume is a bad sign for bulls when the price move is above 1.00% . Yesterday was boarder line – but short term volume indicates momentum is probably with the Bears

The McClellan Index - is also a very significant tool in when to (more) safely buy and sell. Right now there is no clear signal either way, (see below)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI a fell a significant  -134 points yesterday and closed at 3902. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1700 points since late September.  Multi day moves in one direction are common. We are within 100 points of a support level. Breaking that level would be a short term bearish signal

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar was rose yesterday +0.58% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $76.22 . We have broken up through the 50 day moving average resistance level and the Oct/Nov high around $76,82 is the next important resistance level.

The whole dynamic  here seems to have changed – We now, at least for the short term, have a rising dollar

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at -2.01 This is a Neutral Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.  Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Bottom Line There is no clear buy or sell signal. So its best to just stay put for a while.

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

We’ve had, and volume has confirmed, a quantum shift in markets. This may be temporary and it may be long term, but it necessitates major changes in positions. – looking for dollar to hold or add to gains . – This happened or was confirmed yesterday . Will wait to buy some ETF’s and stocks when McClellan Index says we are approaching overbought (@+60)


Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Waiting for a clear signal from MCellan Index to commit additional capital or sell existing positions. Have FXI (20% of portfolio), EWZ, (16%) MOO (10%) and for traders a very small position in BAC (1 to 2%)

Start small & Build your position – Buy the dip.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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