• The scandal of the King of biased and greed based news reporting, Rupert Murdoch and his son James, keeps growing. These “hands on” leaders of  corporate oligarchy stated in front of the British parliament that they accepted NO responsibility and knew nothing about the 4000 hacked emails and police bribes. Involved individuals are popping up all over saying son James knew what everything that was happening.

• Congress, in a completely manufactured crisis, votes on “Ruining the American Economy” over the debt ceiling this week (Headline from The Onion).  Many Right wing Republicans who have forced this vote, like real Islamic terrorists or Iran, would love to see our economy shattered/default.  Their main issue – Absolutely never compromise on one penny more of taxes for the corporate oligarchy or wealthy American.

From Paul R in the comments section a must read editorial by Nicholas Kristoff - Republicans, Zealots and Our Security

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.34%	Down
NASDQ	+0.86%	Down
S&P 500	+0.09%	Down
Russell 2000	+0.07%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

One major goal this week –

PROTECT YOUR MONEY/INVESTMENTS

Right now our political structure is simply “the laughingstock of the world” (see Kristoff editorial) and we’ve hurt job creation by focusing on long term debt instead of the clear & present danger of job creation.

For Republicans this is great politics, the more they focus on the debt and not compromising, the greater the uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty the worse both the economic and jobs situation will be. It is to their advantage politiclaly when the economy suffers becuse the 2012 elections are around the corner and they can blame the mess on Obama.

According to perhaps the definitive source of news for the corporate oligarchy CNBC - Debt Deal Will Happen, Even as US Holds World ‘Hostage’: Analysts

Corporations are overflowing with record profits as earning results have shown. Technically bulls are ready to stampede. The Chinese consumer in many eyes is already more important than the American. So what happens here matters less each day.

However, this debt crisis will negatively impact our economy and the world more each day. We may be loosing our dominance, but we are still the big economic Kahuna.

Obama has the 14th Amendment as a last  weapon to forestall a major meltdown.  It’s impossible to accuratly predict the chances of  a default on debt and how big it might be. (5%, 10%, 25% more?)

So, the recommendation is to make sure you have some kind of protection in place in case a 2008 style meltdown happens.

Other Points

• For Republicans debt crisis is great politics, the more they focus on the debt and not compromising, the greater the uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty the worse both the economic and jobs situation will be. It is to their advantage politiclaly when the economy suffers becuse the 2012 elections are around the corner and they can blame the mess on Obama.

• Europe restructured Greek debt last Friday. A bailout.

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Thanks to everyone who sent in stocks for YOUR Stock List #5. We have over twenty to choose from and we will probably add a couple of our own.

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See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas on investing

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

A Liberal Icon?

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Default

According to today’s Tea Party dominated Republicans, Ronald Reagan must look like a dirty liberal/socialist icon. He amassed the greatest increase (in percent) of national debt and then raised taxes over 5 times in the later part of his administration to bring his run away spending more into balance.

Reagan and Dem. House Leader Tip O’Neill may have disagreed but they worked for compromise. However in the age of Murdoch ratings generated media journalism has changed.

The no compromise brinksmanship of the Murdoch inspired far right Tea Party (Remember it was FOX news in the USA, like the now defunct  168 year old News of the World in Britain that did everything it could to instill right wing no compromise bias) has seemingly backfired on the far right.

Poll after poll is showing the unwillingness to compromise on the part of the far right dominated Republicans as an overwhelming negative in the debt crisis debacle.

A Member of the No Compromise Far Right

Consequences

It’s time to take a serious look at what may happen to your financial well being if the USA does default.

Note - I don’t think this is likely (best guess 30% chance of no compromise) and if 8/2 does happen without a compromise I expect Obama to invoke 14th amendment.

Therefore, Louise Story’s Wall St Makes a Fallback Plan for Debt Crisis is a must read.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.12%	Down
NASDQ	-0.43%	Flat
S&P 500	-0.07%	Down
Russell 2000	-0.27%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• Remember, FEAR is generally thought of by market psychologists as TWICE as powerful as GREED

• Yesterday was the confirmation day of Tuesday’s big rally. What we got is a weak confirmation – a slight decline but in weak volume. Technically this is a wee bit bullish.

• As mentioned two weeks ago – “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.” However, it matters what investors worldwide think of our political/economic system. That confidence was shaken in 2008. Idiot politicians can further destroy this confidence with their inability to compromise.

• Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below – The closer we get to August 2 the less these forecasting tools will matter.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to -7.81 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) Lots of room for MO to move higher or lower = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar fell a significant -0.57% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range. It is still in that range, it broke though a major support level. It’s 50 day moving average. Normally I’s give this a Neutral/Bullish for stocks, But because investors are focused on the  US debt crisis = Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves Solid earnings in techs are bullish, but all eyes still on US congress.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• May 20th forecast still in effect.

• Repeat - It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki Dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception slightly favors bulls.

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Paul’s Corner

It’s  July 21 and TIMBERRRRRRRRRRR!

The market? No RVBD, a former member of YSL, reported earnings Tuesday  after the close. It didn’t meet revenue expectations, and took a 23%  hit. This is a very important lesson as why it’s best  to wait until after an earnings release for a buy. Some times in a good up trending market one can gamble a bit prior to earnings, but 2 weeks or more prior to earnings is suggested.

I trust  none of you folks were in still RVBD as it should have been exited back on Mar 18 when it dropped through the 50 DMA in the market down turn and it kept heading south. True it had a nice double bottom, but it wasn’t a good double bottom since the second bottom wasn’t lower than the first. Sure it had a nice climb up the chart with the strong market two weeks ago, but when it started ticking off prior to the expected earnings date profits were best taken.

If you are the true BUY THE DIP optimist, have loads of spare cash and we were in an up trending market, a buy in this area could be a good gamble, IF you give it a few days to settle down before you dump your wife’s Christmas Club into RVBD. (Christmas Club’s, remember them?)

Another YSL member FFIV reported after the close yesterday, met expectations and is off about 15% in after hours trading. FFIV is a competitor to RVBD and seems to being taken to the cleaners along with RVBD. Talk on Wall Street suggests “tech” isn’t a safe bet until September. Interesting forecast, we shall see. BTW FFIV’s chart has been horrible for months and sale was suggested many months ago by Investors411.com.

Dave Steckler in his latest blog discusses the current market and  “Consolidation“. A new term for some and an important thing to watch for in the market. As always, Dave gives  a great chart lesson.

LINK

Off the stock subject, the current Republican front runner appears to be Romney. Great looking, charismatic, and knows how to talk the issues. He is touted as a job creator, but is he? Here is a good article from the left wing press Bloomberg, tearing apart his job creating myth. Remember this next fall folks!

LINK

So what’s the market going to do today, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

All the blow concepts are at least, in part,  considered of the potential of a US default

GLD & SLV - Will buy GLD today simply as a hedge against default.

UDN & UUP – Considering holding UDN – An ETF that shorts  the dollar. Another possibility in “Puts” on UUP – An ETF that is double long the dollar.

BZF – ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency.

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF that shorts a major index and a couple of stocks. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades. See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

Deadline Friday noon

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Koch Brothers

Buy/Rent Calculator

The NYT has an interactive Buy/Rent calculator for those making this decision. Of course the hard part is adjusting what future housing and rental costs will be.

Follow the Money

Every Sunday Frank Rich has a column in the NYT and more often than not its a home run. You know the front people behind the Tea Party and other right wing groups but the billionaires (Murdoch and the Koch Brothers & more) that fund or run the show are the real power brokers. Follow the Money

Here’s a quote from Rich of just what the Koch Brothers believe - “They haven’t changed.” David Koch ran against Ronald Reagan on this platform in 1980 -

“his campaign called for the abolition not just of Social Security, federal regulatory agencies and welfare but also of the F.B.I., the C.I.A., and public schools — in other words, any government enterprise that would either inhibit his business profits or increase his taxes.”

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.65	up
NASDQ	+1.65	up
S&P	+1.66%	up
Russell 2000	+2.83%	-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

I realize that the vast majority of you want to know just if its safer to buy now and what areas to buy. A lot of the below material just makes your eyes glaze over and is techno speak. On the Positions Section of blog there are a list of potential ETF’s that should outperform the benchmark S&P 500. Generally,  The time to buy is on dips when the MO (see below) gets to -60 or below.

Investors411 want YOU to be a better trader or investor. The primary goal is to educate YOU. If you skim the below, you’ll see the major empahasis is on the massive currency/dollar market that, right now,  is walking stocks like you walk your dog on a leash.

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Popular financial channel host Jim Cramer said last Friday – “BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

We had volume behind Friday’s big rally. Don’t have the faith in volume as an indicator for major indexes because of BB/HFT’s. Volume does have some more credibility when it comes to individual smaller stocks.

More importantly we had a falling dollar that has had trouble breaking through the falling resistance level (see $USO below). That’s where the action is. Dollar falls = stocks go up and visa versa. From  the BB/HFT’s to Central Banks to worldwide oil barons all play the massive currency markets and try to manipulate it to their advantage.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell a marginal -0.02%. Chart show falling 50DMA is a strong resistance level. Breaking down or up through it is the key for US stocks. = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a marginal +o.33% Friday. This gives some stability to the 5 week long rally after two down days in a row. 5 week rally trend is still in place, but not entirely back on track = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to -15.64 . This was a massive, almost +45 point move. If this move continues it could flame out real fast. Nevertheless, our #1 Buy sell Indicator is back at = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

From Friday – “When fear is at its greatest – that’s the time to buy. Have we reached that point…Personally, I’m torn. There’s so much investment fear out there – Am I letting it cloud the facts?”  Answer – YES – We had an oversold bounce Friday that could continue for a few day or longer.

Friday I gave you all the reasons for an oversold rally, yet failed to take full advantage of it. That’s me in the doghouse with traders.

INVESTORS – The conditions were marginal, but still NOT good enough to nibble. If you like you can always do “in the money” coverd calls or invest in high dividend stocks to mitigate risk. A good time to buy these is when stocks are oversold instead of overbought.

CAUTION – This is a NEUTRAL market and ideally you’d like oversold conditions to exist in a BULLISH market. That’s why Investors411 is being cautious.

Still think there is a better than 50/50 chance of markets falling to/or testing this year’s lows - SPX 1020

UUP remains the ETF to watch because it tracks the dollar.  Yes, we had an oversold bounce and it could continue. But if the dollar breaks through its resistance & moves higher (see above on $USD) stocks will roast and toast.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small positions in EWS (Singapore) USO (commodity-Oil) & TYH

Traders - Bought TYH (3X technology ETF) again at 24.98 Friday. A smaller position than last time (5% of portfolio) because the conditions were not as good.

Reasoning – I should have bought it at the open when stocks dropped @70 points, but I was waiting for a 100+ point drop. When stocks moved higher than their open in basically oversold conditions (see MO for Friday) I bought the first dip. I did Not buy as much as before because the conditions were not as oversold. (also UUP was flat)

Holding TYH overnight is always a risk & other factors.

• The rebalance the TYH to more accurately reflect its positions & I do not have a super computer(s) to figure out if its out of whack like the BB/HFT’s do
• A single event can cause the TYH to more dramatically by the next open. We are talking about an ETF that does 3X what the tech stocks do.
• One reason I have the ability to trade this, is that I have the one of the financial channels on in the background as I work and can watch the market move.

Same philosophy applies. Have moved stops up to 1 below what it was bought for & and will take 3% to 5%% profits on 1/2 of TYH, hopefully today. Conditions not appropriate for any other buys.

INVESTORS - I know you’re frustrated & would like something to buy and hold. The good news is USO & EWS are both in the black, but haven’t reached the @5% profit level  where you can sell 1/2 and let the rest ride.

Long Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Palin’s New Job

Sarah Palin suddenly quit her Alaska Governor’s job yesterday  and some people are waiting for the other shoe to drop.  The "Quitter on Twitter" Palin news  is spreading quicker than the tweets from Iran and even rivals the Michel Jackson news. America has long since become a celebrity driven culture rather than one interested in substance and reality.

She didn’t quit the Governor’s job when she ran for VP.  Alaska was flush with $140 a barrel oil revenues then and she was the state’s most popular poll. Now the states problems are growing with oil at $70 a barrel and her judgement was being questioned. Palin’s popularity was fading both in Alaska and even with Republicans.  The latest fiasco was in Vanity Fair (here ) where fellow Republicans were playing whack a mole with her run for VP.

We are damn lucky this lady is not a heartbeat away from the presidency because the kitchen gets a whole lot hotter in the White House.  Palin is getting out of the Alaskan furnace because it’s a no win situation. The supposed "fighter" leaves the state in the middle of the biggest economic crisis since the great depression, declining personal popularity. and falling oil revenues that make up a huge chunk of the states budget.

FOX news’s anchor started out describing Palin’s resignation in the reality of Harry Truman’s famous statement "if you can’t stand the heat – get out of the kitchen." But FOX soon changed its tune to this could be a "brilliant" move.

The best read of the tea leaves is that there will soon be a multi-million dollar contract with Rupert Murdoch and FOX news (plus a book deal). How about her own show? FOX quickly realized  that you don’t want to play wake a mole with their future network mega star.  At very least, she will be all over the ultra right wing FOX channel in paid interviews

Politics is about money and power.   Yes she’s cut an run from Alaska as its economy crumbles, but as she stated "only dead fish go with the flow"(text of resignation here) Sarah Palin has charisma and now a shot at a lot more money, power and celebrity status.

Happy 4th!

Barr