Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 19, 2010

Tide Turning?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Congressional Budget Office

The non partisan CBO came out with its report on Health Care. Both Republicans & Democrats endorse the CBO reports when it favors their side in whatever debate. Here are some of the major points on the proposed plan

  • Increase costs by $940 billion and cut costs by greater $1,078 billion over first 10 years = net federal deficit saving of $138 billion
  • Cut deficit 1.2 trillion next 10 years
  • Adds coverage for 32 million Americans
  • Closes “doughnut hole.”no longer a gap in senior coverage

Basically it covers 95% of Americans and cuts deficit by over $1.3 trillion over next 20 yearsWAPO’s Ezra Klien. Many analysts feel that this would increase medicare solvency by 9 years

Is Support for Health Care Reform Changing?

Nate Silver, the best poll analyst out there says yes. The center and the left are moving toward Obama on this. Last look at betting site Intrade showed a 78% possibility of bill passing.

The Devil is in the Details

There is a big give away to Louisiana, because they have a Dem. Senator up for reelection and more will come out.   Hopefully they can be changed later. The obvious downside is that this increases the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have. Therefore the exorbitant  17% of our  GDP that goes to Health Care will NOT significantly change

Catholic’s Supporting Health Care

Several major Catholic groups (Catholic Health Organization most notable) are now supporting health care. It’s dawned on them that we are the abortion capital of the world and covering more people will REDUCE abortions as it has in other counties. Thanks to JAB bringing this up in comment section of blog. See JAB’s and other comments  on the right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.42% down
NASDQ +0.09% down
S&P 500 -0.03% down
Russell 2000 -0.35% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

US markets went all over the place yesterday and on the whole ended up flat in decreased, weak volume. This is probably due to options expiring today (the 3rd Friday of the month).

There was some bad news out of Greece

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell significantly to +30.01 yesterday. 0 is Neutral and +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high three weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Once again the NYMO has fallen back down to its support level at 30. While it is much safer to make investments when conditions are oversold (-60) if we are in for a long term rally those willing to take bigger risks could nibble the dip here.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Repeat from Yesterday – “Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology

“IMAX, DWA, RGC & CNK In one sense Investors411 will be building its own market basket of stocks (like an ETF) on the potential of 3D technology.

Many of the Stocks on YOUR stock list are great, perhaps even better than the 3 D plays. The difference is fundamentally 3 D has shown it has pricing power. People around the world will line up to pay an extra 20 to 40% to see a 3D film. Think people will go to movies even if we have another leg down economically. I simply have not had the time to go over the fundamentals of the other stocks. Remember AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 ETF positions are currently under performing the benchmark S&P 500 FXI (China) MOO (Agriculture stocks) & EWZ (Brazil – just a bit under) In one sense technically after many years of out performing this was bound to happen. Investors411 has also cut way back on major foreign investments from highs @ 25% each to 5%.

Three significant reasons US markets are outperforming other foreign  markets

  • Obama’s health care reform does nothing to break the monopoly of the insurance and drug companies. If anything it makes them more $ by covering more people.
  • Financial reform of greed based capitalism proposed by Senator Dodd (D. CT) is very weak and does little to increase transparency.
  • Core inflation is well under control From today’s Seeking Alpha“Thursday’s BLS report on CPI showed core inflation at 6-year lows, up just 1.3% over the recent 12-month period. The main reason for this: The price of ‘shelter’ remains depressed, up only 0.3% YoY.”

Bottom Line – No real reform means another bubble is inevitably building in our greed based (as opposed to rules based) capitalist system. Home prices remaining depressed means the US Fed will keep shoveling money into the system builds both the economic bubble and stock prices.

Investments – There are going to be more short term (when we are closer to overbought) and longer term (when we are oversold) trades involving ETF’s like TYH that do 2 & 3x what an index does.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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January 20, 2010

A Frog In Hot Water

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

A Frog in Hot Water

The old adage goes – Throw a frog in hot water and he’ll jump right out, but you can slowly bring the water to a boil and that frog will stay put.

A little known Republican State Senator, Scott Brown , won a stunning upset victory in the MA Senate race last night. Like Mitt Romney in 2002, he beat  Dem. Shannon O’Brien, Brown toasted another woman who ran a weak campaign – Martha Coakly.  For perhaps the best analysis of what this means see Nate Silver’s Let’s Play The Blame Game

Health Care – Obviously in deep trouble. The only way Health Care would pass is if the House passes the Senate Bill. Since Democrats in the House have already voted for a far more progressive health care plan and will get hit for that in the next election Obama is going to argue why not vote for the Senate version.

Bottom Line – Health care. – You blew it – RIP

That Frog in this case is the typical American worker who is in the pot of ever increasing temperature .

  • Globalization is slowly eliminating working class jobs across America
  • Weapons budgets are growing at the rate of 10 to 20% each year
  • For the first time in our history we cut taxes and went to war.
  • Our federal and trade deficit exploded from 2000 to 2008.
  • The era of cheap oil is OVER. The supply has peaked and the demand from billions of people in emerging markets is growing.
  • Because of our suburban sprawl and relative lack of public transportation we are far more vulnerable to high oil prices.
  • Time tested solutions like stimulating the economy to fix it will not work as well because of our already huge deficit.
  • There fewer and fewer laws to govern excess GREED on Wall St. Main Street has socialized the risk for Wall Street
  • The rich in the USA are getting richer and what’s left of the American working class (those not newly unemployed) are paying the bill
  • As the situation worsens, self preservation kicks in, and Americans care less and less about others.

The American frog is in a pot that’s getting hotter and hotter.

There is an upside to all of this outside the USA. Hundreds of millions (perhaps billions) in emerging markets are increasing their standard of living. They have or are learning to Manage their capitalism and hopefully not repeat mistakes that were made here.  Greed is a powerful factor and one hopes eventually more democracy will grow abroad.  If Time magazine called the last decade The Decade from Hell for the USA – it could get a whole lot worse for the American frog in this decade.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.09% down
NASDQ +1.42% down
S&P500 +1.25% down
Russell2000- +1.75% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Stocks staged a major rally (above 1%) in decreased, average volume. Volume, our #1 confirmation factor did NOT confirm the move higher. Even though we achieved some new highs (for a calander year) on 3 of the major indexes we are doing it in reduced volume.

  • McClellan Index at +i3.14 = A little bit overbought.  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold or @ +60 or overbought

IBM reported after the bell and beat top and bottom line expectations. This was not a grand slam, but IBM did solidly better, but lost money in after hours trading.   The important news from IBM which does 60% of its business abroad was that their areas of growth were "Brazil, China, & India."

Even though stocks rallied yesterday still believe in down week.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING


YOUR Watch List of Stocks . Unfortunately, I’m not daily checking these stocks out. Ideally, you’d like to McClellan index below zero (the further the better) and these all would be better buys. We developed most of these potential stocks about two weeks ago. Check old Investors411 for more.

Again the problem with buying now is that markets are slightly overbought and you would like stocks oversold position. Click on ticker symbol for chart. Going to limit Watch List to @ 10 stocks.  80% of investments wil be ETF’s 20% stocks.

NB – I feel much more confident with ETF’s because they reflect global trends than individual stock. Too many things can go wrong with individual stocks.

  • SEED In a buy the dip position.
  • AAPL big +4.42% rally yesterday. Sitting on breakout point. AAPL moves markets – if this goes higher so does the market.
  • AMZN We sold at highs and AMZN has formed lower highs and lows. In bearish mid term pattern. Will drop from list soon
  • HMIN - Failed breakout, back at lower end of trading pattern. Will drop from list soon
  • CAAS Buy the dip opportunity as CAAS falls to just above 50 day moving average.
  • PCLN Buy the dip opportunity
  • F Still too over extended to buy
  • DRWI New – Big exporter to China -  Looks great but still too overextended to buy
  • ENOC New – Reduces costs for utilities – Great long term chart. formed base for last 5 months moving higher – A buy
  • ATHN New - Software reduces costs for health care - Clear trend higher since June Buy the dip opportunity
  • IMAX Great long term chart – falling back to its 50 day moving average. A buy the dip opportunity

Mistake – I let my emotions over rule logic on IMAX It was too overextended from 50 day moving average to buy at 13.9. So I’ve sold the small position (1% of portfolio I bought at 13.9 for 10% loss) Keeping 1% bought at 12.9 and will add more at lower price.  Perhaps the most important rule of investing learn from mistakes and do not repeat them.

If markets were overbought I’d strongly consider ENOC, CAAS, ATHN, SEED, & PCLN.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 18, 2009

Market Update – The Known Universe

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The Known Universe


grand_universe_by_antifan_real

Before we jump into Politics, Stocks, & Economics and let your mind go in the following video from the American Museum of Natural History.  It takes 27 seconds to get started in the Himalayas and expands. “The Known Universe”LINK

Folks who love video’s like the above can’t wait to see an alternate universe or Avatar in 3D

Health Care

If you really want to get into the nuts and bolts of the Heath Care bill – Progressive Glenn Greenwald’s answer to Nate Silver’s 20 questions (see yesterday’s Update) LINK and Silver’s response LINK

In the NYT today there are two broader editorials on the current Health Care Bill.

  • Nobel Prize winning Progressive Economist Paul Krugman – “Pass the Bill” LINK
  • Senior Weekly Standard and NYT conservative columnist David Brooks – “The Hardest Call” - LINK

Reality is the Republicans are not going to do anything to seriously change health care. They did nothing significant from 2000 to 2008. This bill will give additional coverage to 30 million Americans and prohibit discrimination by heath insurers. It may or may not marginally bring down costs. It’s clearly not making lots on the left and right happy.  (See comments by D. “I’m Not Happy. “) I’d sure like to see the 27% of insurance costs that is bloated salaries of insurance CEO’s and executives reduced and a whole lot of other changes.

Our politicians  (both left and right) are far more influenced by lobbyists and stereotyping the other side to get elected. So any future change is doubtful because it sure looks like they will gain seats in the mid term elections. Hopefully moving the entropy that envelops Washington will spark a process of change.

Elizabeth Warren

Congressional Oversight Chairman of TARP Elizabeth Warren has been a voice of reason. Mama Jama in the comments section has sent in a valuable 3 minute CSpan video with her comments. LINK

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.27% up
NASDQ -1.22% down
S&P500 -1.18% down
Russell2000- -1.14% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar exploded higher and stocks took a big hit . Volume did NOT increase. (A small increase in Dow) I’ve followed stocks for several decades and the lack of volume over the last three or four months is very unusual .  We’ve slowly moved higher, but even yesterday’s toasting was in relatively light volume. One thing is certain – no new money is coming into the markets from the sidelines and trading is being even more dominated by short term traders than before.

Fundamentals Domino’s are beginning to fall . In this case it’s the economic well being of countries that have become over extended with debt. Dubai was the first and may just a case of taking on too much debt – then getting hit by the recession.

Now, there’s worry that countries impacted by our financial meltdown (shadow banks in those countries that traded unregulated financial weapons of mass destruction – credit default swaps) might also fall like domino’s. Greece had its credit rating downgraded over a week ago. Spain & Italy look shaky. All the former Russian satellite s who bought into the unregulated free market (got into credit default swap debt) are on very thin ice – especially the Ukraine. Jolly old England (London brags it is the financial center of the world) is worse off than we are. = Potential big Bearish news

A second fundamental spooking the markets is what’s going to happen to the Fed and shadow banks . The shadow bank lobby is ultra strong (unfortunately). However, there is momentum building to have the Congressional Budget Office (a relatively bipartisan group) oversee the Fed. Pluses and minuses here. Today just the minus. While the CBO is basically apolitical, it is a branch of congress. If congress got control of overseeing the FED, it would become even more political.

Quadruple witching day for stocks. Translation – lots of traders have to buy and sell because their options expire. Irregular trading happens

FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST Up to flat week . But be careful we are entering overbought territory (see below) and if rally continues I’ll be taking profits rather than adding to stocks.

Bottom Line - The dollar (see above and below comments) is on at least a major short term bull run. Both fundamentally and technicals support this move . Dollar up = Stocks down .

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) . -98 yesterday

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose a HUGE +1.11% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.72 . Technically we’ve broken through the 50 day moving average and TWO significant resistance levels = Very Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

As mentioned above, lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +0.82 This is NEUTRAL Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Bottom Line Start thinking about taking profits, especially into any continued rally .

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

Will wait to sell some ETF’s and stocks when McClellan Index/Oscillator approaches overbought (@+60)


Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Your Comments - (See “Monitor’s” comments on side of blog – About a week  ago Investors411 sold its positions in GLD. DGP, AMZN & NVS ) – Not interested in opening any new positions right now Waiting for a clear signal from MCellan Index to commit additional capital or sell existing positions .

If we rally into the end of this week I’d take some more profits

Sold BAC (very small position -1%+ of portfolio for a -6 % loss)

Will sell some FXI (China)  (@ 4 to 6% of portfolio) into any rally today – WHY –

  • China is a “high beta” ( it makes bigger moves/more volatile than others) ETF’s
  • Technically (see chart) it has broken through a couple support levels.
  • China sells a lot to Europe and if they are in trouble China is impacted.
  • BDI is falling
  • The McClellan oscillator is at zero. Stocks have a long way to go before they reach oversold or overbought levels.
  • Momentum is with the bears.

Caution here, I’ve made mistakes before in timing. This might be the perfect “buy the dip,” but there looks like more downside to come. (see above)

Also considering selling 1/2 position in MOO

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 17, 2009

Market Updates – Bats**t Crazy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Bats**t Crazy


In politics (or anything) its important to fight 100% for what you believe in. But Rome wasn’t built in a day. Sometimes you’ve got to be a realist and if you can make things better, you accept it and fight on.

Both privately and publicly those of you who have made comments or talked with me are furious at Obama (Afghanistan, Health Care, lack of leadership, & other issues.) Me too. Indeed one poll shows Obama nationally with a 51% approval rating (and sinking) and Hillary Clinton with a 75% approval rating. LINK

Nate Silver, who was perhaps the best pollster/analyst out there makes a strong case for accepting a health care compromise. (see chart above) Personally I’s love to see something like Medicare extended to all Americans (Bernie Sanders D. VT. Introduced such a measure) but the reality is it’s not going to win. Part of the reason for this is Obama’s lack of commitment and leadership. Howard Dean & others want to Kill the Health bill and start over. LINK

Silver’s chart and explanation of how he arrived at these figures is a rational reason to accept what’s there – "Progressives are Bats**t Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill. "  LINK Nate goes on and lists 20 reasons why progressives and others should support compromise legislation – LINK You can also see an ongoing debate at his site LINK

Frankly, another strong argument is its time to move on – Jobs, fixing too big to fail structures, systemic economic risk, and the huge economic hole we are in desperately need more attention.  If progressives are going to waste time crying or raging over spilled milk and pointing fingers they become useless.

Bottom Line – If heath care cost are going to come down anything like Silver’s chart shows and the richest 1% in the USA pay for it I’m happy

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.10% up
NASDQ +0.27% up
S&P500 +0.11% up
Russell2000- +0.81% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar was flat and so were US markets. The Fed left interest rates and its statement about the future basically unchanged. Volume usually rises on Fed announcement days. In the short term it now looks like the dollar will rise and stocks fall. The Fed announcement reinforces this.

A week or two ago Investors411 mentioned small cap stocks (Russell 2000) would outperform other US indexes. This is happening. Unfortumately, no new positions were bought. Will wait for dip to buy.

FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST Up to flat week . But be careful we are entering overbought territory (see below) and if rally continues I’ll be taking profits rather than adding to stocks.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade)

In an effort to shorten all this technical data I’m going to write on the BDI weekly. The index is in a mid term downward (bearish) pattern right now & longer term bullish pattern (for over a year).  The BDI does forecast world market movement, especially China, but not immediately like some other indexes.  The fact that the BDI is falling right now is an indication of why China & some emerging markets are not as strong as the USA.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell yesterday -0.07 . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant The dollar closed at $76.87 . Technically have broken up through the 50 day moving average resistance level and now broken out through another significant resistance level the Oct/Nov high at 76.82 = Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

. The index closed at +30.13 This is a slightly Overbought Position

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Bottom Line Start thinking about taking profits, especially into any continued rally .

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

Will wait to sell some ETF’s and stocks when McClellan Index/Oscillator approaches overbought (@+60)


Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Your Comments - (See "Monitor’s" comments on side of blog – About a week  ago Investors411 sold its positions in GLD. DGP, AMZN & NVS ) – Not interested in opening any new positions right now Waiting for a clear signal from MCellan Index to commit additional capital or sell existing positions .

If we rally into the end of this week I’d take some more profits

Near bailing out on small investment in BAC

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 13, 2009

Market Update – Taking Action

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Financing Health Care

Poll/chart from Fivethirtyeight

Last week VP Biden announced $155 billion savings in health care with hospitals to help defray the cost of Obama’s heath care plan. This was a giant first step in financing heath care reform. Story here . The $155 billion story was a blip compared to our Michael Jackson/Sarah Palin media obsession.

When has any administration since LBJ come up with $155 billion in health care savings?

Perhaps the best analyzer of polls out there, Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight blog) has come out with a poll showing the way 68% of Americans want to finance health care reform. - Increase taxes on income earners over $250K, Increase alcohol taxes, increase cigarette taxes. See data above and a great analysis of health care reform here

So why isn’t this legislation popular among our Senators and Congressmen? So many are bought and sold by the health care industry.

The latest to get caught in influence peddling was a media outlet the venerable Washington Post. CEO’s and health care officials were among those invited to a sit down with the WaPo and administration officials for $25,000 to $250,000. This meeting blew up when it became public. Story here

If you sit back and do nothing health care costs will continue to rise over 100% a decade.  We will continue be, by far, the most expensive system and 30th to 40th when compared to other nations health care systems on results.

You can either sick your head in the sand, keep getting mesmerized by Michael Jackson/Sarah Palin or do something. Call your Congress person and your Senator. Join a group that promotes reform. I certainly am a critic many of Obama’s decisions, but I’m have no problem in pushing this cause

You can make a difference. But you have to stand and fight . The only way they win is if you do nothin g . Make the call, join the group or donate some $. NOW

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.45% down
NASDQ +0.20 % down
S&P500 -0.40% down
Russell2000 +0.36% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

After falling, as predicted, to the S&P 875 support level, the bulls have reinforced the barricades and held their position for the last two days.  The longer they hold out the stronger the bulls position becomes.

Volume our #1 forecasting tool has been almost totally useless.

Earnings week usually trumps everything else - Perhaps the biggest report is Intel on Tuesday. If the tech giant ‘s forecast is positive we could see a rally continue. Financials are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because the Obama administration has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 8th day in a row.  However, the rate of decline has slowed dramatically.  This chart works a little different from most other charts in that it is a lot smoother and less volatile. The fact that the decline rate has dramatically narrowed is a positive for bulls

Unfortunately, over the last six weeks we have a series of lower high, lower lows, and a broken support level. That’s positive for bears. Over the last six months we have dramatically risen off the lows – Long term  Positive for bulls

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term  - seems to be turning bullish (emphasis on seems )
  • mid term – clear bearish pattern
  • long term - bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is still in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+.

—–

Fearless Forecast for the Wee k

From Last week The S&P resistance level (@875 & SPX now at 896 )  should at least get challenged, especially in the beginning of the week. Watch BDI. Forecast – Bears Rule Investors411 shot and scored on last week’s forecast.

This Week’s fearless forecast Remember this is reading tea leaves. So far investors have not reacted well (buying or pushed stocks higher) to some reasonably good news last week. There is a bias with the bears The bulls support level (SPX @875) gets stronger each day it holds.

The bottom line comes down to the mother of all chip stocks Intel’s  earnings forecast . Financials are going to do well (under the Fed’s Obama administration’s protection) The BDI looks like it may be turning higher. Both bulls and bears have some powerful weapons right now as stated above.

So when it come down to "there is no clear direction " you manage risk. If support levels fall for the bulls there is a big chance for a big fall. Good news has not pushed markets higher in the last week, so it looks like there will be no huge rally.

Often the bottom line is "Don’t loose money." – So Investors411 is just going to hold tight. We’ve sold a lot of positions recently and will have to play this day by day. If Intel rallies Investors411 will add to portfolio. Also a buy the dip opportunity may arise.

Fearless Forecast – So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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June 14, 2009

Coup in Iran

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Holocaust denier Ahmadinejan and the militants have launched a Coup and stolen the elections in Iran. Widespread protests and violence

Democracy Hopes

GREENREVMajid:Getty

 Dictators Reply

An injured supporter of Mir Hossein Mousavi covers his face ...

The elections in Iran were a fraud and the militants are using the elections as cover for a coup.

The following sources are much more complete than anything I could say.

  1. Professor Cole (Informed Comment Blog) is an expert in this field and outlined top 6 reasons elections were stolen on Saturday post. In his Sunday post he concludes/believes we’ve ” been had by a hard line constituency of at most 20% of the country, who claim to be the only true heirs of the Iranian revolution, and who control which ballots see the light of day.
  2. Laura Secor’s (experienced inside Iran reporter from within country) editorial “Iran’s Stolen Elections” in the New Yorker
  3. Gary Sick – Mid East expert and served under 3 presidents on US National Security Council – In Talking Points Memo blog – editorial - “Iran’s Political Coup.”
  4. Nate Silver – Perhaps the best poll analyst out there runs the ultra respected FiveThirtyEight polling blog. His editorial headline “Rigged Iranian Election is Flawed.”

Beyond the violence, foreign reporters have been asked to leave, internet cut, cell phone cut, opposition figures arrested and more.

As Jaun Cole points out the standard procedure in an Iran election was supposed to be a three day wait to investigate claims of fraud before the Supreme (religious) leader proclaimed victory. Instead results were immediately authorized.

Barr

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