Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
October 28, 2011

Boycott BOA

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Fighting Crony Capitalism


Take the crony out of CapitalismNYT’s Nicholas Kristof’s excellent defense of Occupy Wall Street


****************


Boycott BOA

10 Reasons NOT to Bank with the mother of all Bankstas

Bank of America.

From Nomi Prins at Truthout. Of all the ways  (hidden fees, lawsuits, nailing vets, over charges, pay’s no taxes) BOA charges vs other local banks I find reason # 6 the most compelling. They use your deposit to gamble hidden over leveraged derivatives.

“The total amount of derivatives in the FDIC-insured portion of B of A as of mid-year was $53.7 trillion, up 10 percent from $48.9 trillion the prior year, and up nearly 35 percent from its pre-fall [2008] crisis level of $40 trillion.”

Your over leveraged FDIC insured deposits at BOA  multiplied the severity of the 2008 housing/financial crisis. Who knows how deep BOA and other banksters (shadow banks) were into the European sovereign debt crisis? – Our Fed is not audited, US banks don’t have mark to market accounting, and the whole 500 trillion derivitives market hides its trades.


*****************


Bankstas Take A Hit In Europe


Yes, over leveraged European financials did get a $1.4 trillion bailout fund. But they were also forced to take a “50% haircut”on the Greek bonds the held. How much of this haircut that will come out of their bottom line is open for debate. (See links in yesterday’s blog)

Bankers and Bankstas - There are normal Bankers who take our deposits and use them as collateral for loans that help people and small businesses. The good guys.

Bankstas take our FDIC insured deposits and use them  as protection to play casino capitalism, on bundles of mortgages, sovereign debt, student loans etc., called derivatives  or Credit Default Swaps.

This over leveraging is done in hidden transaction in an opaque $500 trillion derivatives market. The biggest poorly regulated bankstas are now too big to fail – Example BOA.


*****************


STOCKS

From Yesterday - Today’s move higher should be Dramatic Not Erratic. US stock indexes saw a significant move higher (3.18% to 5.26%) in big volume , but European stocks saw an even bigger move. ETF’s that track France and Germany up 8+% (see positions below)

A better than expected 2.5% US GDP for the last 1/4 is another solid fundamental for bulls.
A contrarian view to Investors411 – Time to Fade the Rally

******************


Reading Tea Leaves


  • Our secondary indicator, the Put Call Ratio is at 0.91. Well below its 50DMA which is at 1.15 = Bullish
  • For more on MO & PCR see POSITION Section of blog (scroll down)

Stock traders/investors put their money down yesterday -  The proposed solution in Europe looks like it will have a somewhat similar impact on stocks that the  of 2009/2010 Obama/Bernanke bailouts did. In fact, traders/investors have been putting their money down since the lows almost a month ago.

It is rational to expect some kind of pull back today. But, there are lots on the sidelines who have missed out on the move looking to buy the dip. Volume was big yesterday, but not yet the huge kind of volume associated with a climax selloff.

Unfortunately, the bigger part of this move off the bottom is probably over, but it looks like we may be able to reach this year’s highs again.


*********************


Positions


SPY(ETF tracks S&P 500 or SPX) bought at 123.5, now at 128.63

Reminder – Your Stock List#5 – . 5 of our 14 stocks took  some big earnings hits (one on an analysts downgrade) So Paul & I have decided to drop TSU, RES, CROX, GMCR, & CPHD. . LINK to entire list (scroll down)

Under consideration.

SSO (ETF that is @2X SPX) Buy on dip. Investors411 uses a buy the dip strategy in markets that are trending higher.

EWG (ETF that tracks Germany) and/or EWQ (ETF that tracks France) Both are higher risk because they are on the cutting edge of what’s happening. A bigger technical breakout than US indexes. Yesterdays melt up was fundamentally focused on the fact that specifically German and French financial institution would weather the default crisis.

I favor Germany – better overall economic fundamentals. Buy the dip.

XLF (ETF for financial stocks) For those that can handle more risk UYG (2X financials) & FAS (3x financials) Several Investors411 bloggers have made out handsomely with gains of 50+% trading January Calls on FAS.

Mea CulpaAll of the above new considerations should have been listed Monday after the Upgrade.

Note – These are official Investors411 Positions – I buy each position mentioned.


********************


Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

Investors411 upgraded its Outlook on Monday to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Reasoning

  • Technically, we broke out of this summers trading pattern. The resistance and now support level for benchmark S&P 500 is @ 1225.
  • Fundamentally, the perception that European banks will survive (see Banksta at War) another over leveraged crisis
  • A 2.5% GDP Growth in the third quarter is NOT a recession number.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 12, 2009

Market Updates – Afghanistan

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Afghanistan


US ambassador, former general/commander in Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry , has “deep reservations ” about sending more troops to Afghanistan. His major objection is corruption in a country’s whose #1 economic product is opium. LINK & LINK

Finally a major columnist has drawn a comparison between spending money on heath care vs. spending money in Afghanistan . NTY’s Nicholas Kristof argues -  are we “better off spending that money blowing up things in Helmand Province or building up things in America.” LINK Lack of health car kills about 45,000 Americans a year and the Taliban in Afghanistan have not exported their violence to the USA.

Sherwehe points out in comments section of the blog LINK 2,200 0f those are veterans who lacked health care according to a Harvard study. If the current figures hold up “This year more veterans will die from suicide than will die on the battle field.” and “800,000 vets live on the street.

As pointed out before the major problem is Pakistan – 5/6 time the population of Afghanistan and a nuclear power. According to polls and DAWN (leading English speaking Pakistan paper LINK ) views of Americans are deteriorating rapidly.

Bottom Line – We simply can no longer afford to keep nation build around the world. Investors should note this is just another reason to invest in countries that are focused on building their middle classes instead of nation building opium rich country’s like Afghanistan.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.43% down
NASDQ +0.74% down
S&P500 +0.50% down
Russell2000 +0.98%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dollar rose an anemic +0.07% , & US equities actually managed a minor rally in anemic volume.

The BDI is on fire. (see below) This is very positive for world trade, commodities, and an indicator China is buying.  In the OVERVIEW section of the blog PEAK OIL is mentioned as one mega trend impacting economics and stocks. You might consider peak oil as subset of commodities . As world population and middle classes in emerging markets grow the finite amount of commodities become more expensive.

Patten developing – On Thursday market’s fall in expectation of weekly jobless number and stocks rise on Monday – because of some merger.

The longer the dollar holds above its support level the stronger support becomes.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 13% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a VERY significant +133 points yesterday and closed at 3748. Up 11 days in a row. A higher high price on its chart pattern has been confirmed The BDI has rallied about 1600 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now. Especially good for our positions in FXI & EWZ

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar was basically flat +0.07% yesterday. The dollar closed at $75.10 .  This is directly above its, line in the sand, support level. As predicted yesterday – Usually a major support level at least temporarily halts any fall.”

The next important resistance level for the dollar is the falling 50 day moving average (blue line on chart). This is at $76.32 this AM . The support level is  a t @$75.00 Both are important lines in the sand. A breakout on either side will move US equities in the other direction and the world will follow.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McCellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +16.70, – Not yet oversold, but moving in this direction,

Key to chart – 0 is roughly  neutral and when you get to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching -60 you are oversold. Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy

Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in over a week

Investors

FXI – China – (now 25% of portfolio) At new high – up over 50+% this year

EWZ- Brazil (now 20% of portfolio) At new high – up over 100+% this yea r

GLD (now 11% of portfolio) At new high – up over 20+% this year

Comments – NOT the time to buy or add to these positions.  Enjoy the rally.

Going to add Indonesia & Vietnam ETF’s – but waiting for dips. Also going to add DGP (this ETF does about 2x what the GLD does) – More explanation later. As a trade like GS. Again, waiting for dips

Traders (short term plays) These are not ETFs, but individual stocks

Extra Note of Caution here Even though I always warn you AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! please note I’m far less confident in individual stock picks

NVS – (5% of portfolio)  We’ve already sold 1/2 of this for +12% gain  Now up 16+% since bought

CSCO – (5% of portfolio) Flat since we bought position a few weeks ago . – Going nowhere while markets have moved higher.  Selling soon for @ -1% loss – Hopefully into a rally. Sold 1/2 yesterday for -1% loss

AMZN – (now 5% of portfolio  ) Bought last WednesdaySold 1/2  for 11% gain . Like NVS letting the rest ride .

Long Term Outlook – The dollar looks like it may break down through major support and the benchmark S&P 500 is on the verge of a yearly high – Outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH if/when this happens. Instituted change, but subject to change

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
Page: /tag/nicholas-kristof/ : TestLink1 - TestLink2 - TestLink3