Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
October 25, 2011

Banksta At War

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Bankstas At War

European Theatre

Just like the 2008 mortgage debt crisis we have a sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The major question is who is going to end up paying the bill? Will risk be again privatized by banksta’s with their politicians and socialized by the people?

The Big Picture – One reason why the NYT is the world’s most respected newspaper is they come up with outstanding charts and information “A Spectators Guide to the Euro Crisis”

800 LBS Gorilla – Hidden Derivatives Market

The NYT chart shows what happening on the surface. The real picture is full of smoke and mirrors because, just like the 2008 meltdown, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is the opaque, unregulated, derivatives market. Remember – Warren Buffets calls CDS’s (derivatives) “Financial WMD’s.”

Quite simply, once again, who knows what the exposure any major financial company is?  Remember – how interconnected  AIG was? MIT Economist Simon Johnson does.

Do they make a calculator big enough to measure the profits that banksta’s made off the European countries with debt problems in the opaque $500 trillion derivatives market?

Whose going to pay? The too big to fail interconnected (both globally and politically) banksta’s, the bond holders, or the people. The prevailing powers in Europe are now suggesting a 50% haircut for bond holders of Greek debt. (the most pressing problem country)

The austerity measures (raise taxes, fire workers, sell national treasures) imposed on Greece, already with 18% unemployment, would put the country into a long depression and benefit the financial elite who will pickoff Greek assets at fire sale prices. Bankstas war against people by Economist Mark Hudson quantifies this.

We have a broken globalized financial system that benefits a few at the expense of many. Banking used to promote growth, not make hidden bets (CDS’s) on repackaged debt. Profits gets privatized and risk gets socialized.


Two groups with very different solutions passionately recognize privatizing the gains and socializing the risk is tearing down the financial stability of western democracies.

Poverty creating casino capitalism is being fought by both Libertarians (Ron Paul) and the Occupy Wall Street believers. (the 99%)



Why the Rally – The perception by major market movers that in Europe the gains is being privatized and the risk socialize. Best measurement of this would be German financial companies- Thought to have largest exposure to European debt. Second best German stock market – Up 1.5% at 8:15 this AM.

  • Our #1 forecasting tool MO rose to 91.33. OMG overbought levels. The highest in 3 years. = BEARISH
  • Our #2 the PCR rose to 0.96. Shows pro’s who trade Puts and Calls are not very worried = Bullish
  • See Strategy section of blog for more on MO & PCR

Reading Tea Leaves

Same as yesterday – Right now the news out of Germany trumps everything – Their financials move higher and so does everything else. Pro’s are bullish (PCR) takes some of the sting off how overbought we are (MO).

Traders - rallies in the AM, should be met by selling in the PM.  Because  like the MO and virtually every oversold/overbought indicator like it is so high.

Investors – Technically we have broken out of this summers trading range – That’s bullish and the long Term Outlook is now CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. More often than not we retest breakout levels. However, Investors411 is nibbling on the SPX. (Any ETF that tracks this will do) It was chosen because it tracks the S&P 500 and is relatively safe.

JS suggests the SSO and The Critic suggests FAS (although she has a Put/Call play on this.)  Both are good but involve more risk.

Paul tells us there is great risk out there – he’s right. Paul is at a HGSI stock seminar in CA this week.

Bottom Line - The only other time the MO was so high and did NOT see at least a 5% fall in stock prices within a week or two was back in 2009.  Right now the insiders seem to be seeing the same dynamic happening. -

Privatizing Gains and socializing risk works for short term gains – but in the end if you keep putting more and more people in poverty at the expense of a wealthy few the end result is revolution


Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months


*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)




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September 20, 2011

YSL#5 Toasting S&P Again

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

YOUR Stock List gains = +12.55%

S&P 500 gains = +5.66%

See Stock section & Paul’s Corner below for more


Warren Buffett – “My Secretary has a higher tax rate than me.”

Yesterday Barack Obama put some teeth into his economic plan that started with $250 billion in tax incentives for the engine of small growth – small businesses in the USA.  Editorial from Sam Stein. The lead editorial from the NYT -

“This is not class warfare. It’s math. The money is going to have to come from someplace.” It could come from the middle class, from the elderly and the poor, by asking them to give up benefits from programs like Medicare, Medicaid and food stamps — as many Republicans are advocating. It could come by pulling money from road building, schools, food inspection and other vital government services.

Those are unacceptable choices, he said, particularly if the rich give up nothing, and he made it clear he would veto any plan that cut Medicare but did not raise revenue from the rich.

One Particular area that Obama deserves applauds for is the potential for savings (One trillion in 10 years) in the military budget. Obama has lead us form a “you’re with us or against” Iraq war foreign policy to a far less costly yet effective Arab Spring/Libya foreign policy.

Investors411 has consistently maintained the focus should be on jobs creation, and fixing our shadow “too big to fail” financial system. But, this is a solid, overdue “change we can believe in.”


KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary



Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0..94% down
NASDQ -0.36% down
S&P 500 -0.98% down
Russell 2000 -1.69%


Market Analysis

Focus on TechnicalsFundamentalsHFT’s

  • A big stock loss was more than cut in half by rally late in day. Bullish sign.
  • Trend – How stocks react to European news dominating right now. Our two major forecasting tools give us a good idea how stocks will react to news. Overbought markets don’t move much on good news. Oversold markets can more significantly on good news.
  • Big news of the week is FOMC meeting and announcement Wednesday. A surprise would move stocks higher.
  • Trend Kicking the can down the road on Greece is mana from heaven for HFT’s who can use every news items to execute short squeezes, pump and dumps or catching institutional traders with losing long positions


Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

  • The PCR fell to 0.99 (Roughly - above 1.25 is getting Bullish and below 0.80 is getting Bearish. 1.00 = same amount of puts and calls. Over last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 - anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK)  Four basically flat days in a row close at @ 1.00. The last time the PCR got below 1.00 we rallied. = Neutral

The McClellan Oscillator

  • (MO) fell dramatically to +14.07 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold & +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) = Neutral


Reading The Tea Leaves

Short Term Outlook

days, week+

  • Both forecasting tools in Neutral
  • YSL #5 had an outstanding day yesterday. LINK (scroll down) or See Paul’s comments. Since the majority of these stocks are high growth stocks, and these kinds of stocks are usually leaders in a bull market = Bulls are waking up. AAPL (Mother of all tech stocks and a YSL #5 stock) had a significant up day.
  • Fed/Bernanke probably needs to “surprise” traders/investors for rally to continue. Something called Operation Twist, seems to be priced into this rally already.

Longer Term Outlook

month, months

  • Repeat Same old mantra - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen. I now believe I may be wrong about stocks having to be lower for the Fed to do more. There are a lot of analysts who expect more stimulus or a surprise at the Fed meeting Wednesday.
  • We do have a technical series of higher highs and higher lows building on major indexes. Also a technical bottom that’s been retested. That’s bullish


Paul’s Corner

Great day for many of the YSL 5 stocks and a fair day in the market as many stocks are starting to move, BUT keep in mind the PIIGS news still over shadows the market. If you care to play don’t jump in blindly.

Quality growth stocks will always beat the S&P  500 and YSL 5 is doing well. Current gain is 12.11% vs. 5.56% since the Aug 18 Start. Here is the group performance analysis:

GPA Link

A good way to check the individual stock performance of your portfolio is to look at the Relative Strength of each stock. Using HGSI the following chart shows the % gain against the S&P 500 for the past 4 weeks. Note the S&P 500 equals 100, so if a stock has a number of say 117 for AKRX it means AXRX has done 17% better than the S&P 500. Looking at ZAGG with a number of 85 means ZAGG has done 15% less than the S&P 500 for the past 4 weeks.

RS Link

The following are YSL 5 chart observations and are made for education only. They are not a suggestion to buy or sell any stock.

AKRX – Broke out of a 6 week base 4 days ago. Extended, buy any dip.

ABV – Sitting on the 50, basing

NLY – Chart Ok

AAPL – Broken out, extended

CPHD – Extended, breaking out of lose base

CMG – Breaking out, extended

CROX – Sitting above the 50, very loose

GMCR – Basing above the 17

HANS – Good chart buy any dip

HLF – Basing above the 50

LULU – Break out from lose base

RES – Bounced off of lower trading channel

TSU – All HGSI indicators are red

ZAGG – Chart broken down, most indicators red

The  US Fed Reserve is providing stimulus to Europe, why aren’t the Tea Baggers and their lackey Republican hacks yelling about this and the cost to Mericans?

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not. Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.


Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

6 trading days ago we retested lows and Investors411 stated that for those who could stand the risk it was time to nibble. Forecasting tools are in Neutral, but the mojo is with the bulls.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a @14% dividend NLY was bought in mid May at 17.14 Now at 18.16

GLD (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 167.05 - Sold 1/2 for 8% gain. GLD closed at 173.31. Gold is contrarian to stocks and More willing to buy more than sell right now

Disclaimer I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.


Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)


*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)



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March 29, 2011

Hold Em or Fold Em

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,


Obama on Libya

Here’s the NYT  editorial – basically an favorable review on an overdue speech to nation. Also the far right’s Bill Kristol  kudos from the Weekly Standard – “You’ve Come A Long Way Baby”

Both Popeye and Mama have made a understandable point in the comments section of Investors411 – This is tomahawks instead of teachers we are fostering and there is no clear and present danger to the USA. Many state the obvious – this multilateral action will be judged by wether Ka Daffy goes or stays. Good points -but

But consider a more pragmatic approach. You get there by putting one step after another and moving toward your goal. In the case of Lybia there are concrete steps that should be recognized.

  • Nicholas Kristoff in NYT said words to the effect that  you can’t prvent every genocide, but preventing one is a good thing
  • This was a multilateral approach (UN & Arab League backing) not a unilateral one like Iraq
  • No boots on the ground invasion force, but the use of diplomacy and force.
  • Genuine thanks not a phony pulling down of Saddam’s statue directed by a US army psychological operations unit.
  • The “Arab Spring” of revolutions across the Mideast would have been endangered if action were not taken.


KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary




Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.19% down
NASDQ -0.45% down
S&P 500 -0.30% down
Russell 2000 -0.25% -



Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

The QE1 & QE2 chart relative to stock prices that was in yesterday’s Investors411  is now in the Strategy Section

  • Another weak volume day. Slightly higher
  • Some entity sold big time into close. Otherwise we would have had weak volume & slightly higher
  • $99 billion in Treasuries are being sold this week. That’s a lot more than the Fed POMO alone can soak up. Fed usually buys a bit under $6 billion most days.
  • Take Advantage of This Bull Market While It Lasts is a worthy editorial from Equity Network Corporation.  Specifically they talk about reacting NOW on the news before it gets rehashed over and over again by media. Precious metals as an inflation hedge is the top call for a bullish year.  I’m not so sure about post QE @ (June 30), but hope they are right.



Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.11% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three/four day bull run stalled yesterday.  For stocksBullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +9.78 . Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Yesterday was no exception – the +30 resistance level was too strong for bulls to break. = Neutral



Reading The Tea Leaves

Stock markets are dynamic and fluid. Forecasting tools change depending on what kind of market we have. Right now both Fed liquidity injections and High Frequency trading are impacting markets and many traditional tools (like volume) are not working as well as they used to

Bottom Line - Different times demand different forecasting tools.

Both the dollar and the MO have worked well for many many moons. See (click on links) charts above.

Hold Em & Fold Em

If you’ve  followed Investors411 you know we have a proven winner in both The Dollar and the MO as market forecasting tools

  • The dollar going down far more often than not translates into stocks going up.
  • The MO’s longer term +/- 60 & shorter term +/- 30 are both reasonably accurate points momentum swings the other way (oversold or overbought) The + side of the MO is overbought and the – side oversold.

Investors411 has repeatedly show why markets like seemingly bad news – it means more Fed quantitative easing. There are also key ETF’s to watch (see below) like USO (oil an inverse correlation) and tech leader AAPL that impact markets.

There hundreds, perhaps over a thousand different ways tell YOU – Hold Em or Fold Em. These seem to be working quite well now.

Short Bottom Line – We had our bull run off a -60 on the MO and paused as stocks got overbought. But obviously not all technicals (the MO being oversold/overbought) that moves markets. The headlines like earnings, Japan, Libya/oil, QE 2 are the drives and the technicals are the road signs of when to hold em and fold em.

So right now were in a holding pattern. The MO could fall to buyable levels and rise to fast and we’d have to sell. The momentum seems to be with the bulls.

What to watch today – Market movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments



The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up 8% now
  • A Hedge – Day one = UWM -0.60% & EWV + 0.55%  So day #1 was a wash.

UWM - – Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)



Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

We are on the cusp of change from NEUTRAL. We could swing back if stocks dip

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


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November 12, 2010

Snidely Whiplash

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Gang of 21

Snidely Whiplash – Shadow Banker

Imagine if you will, a gang of 21 Snidely Whiplashes [AKA Shadow Bankers.] The problem is you don’t have to imagine – THEY EXIST

Here’s the List of the Fed’s 21 Primary Dealers. Just what powers do they have besides borrowing money for nothing and what are they now up to?

  • You can sell bonds to them and get freshly minted greenbacks in return.
  • Our government has blessed them with opaque accounting rules so who knows what they do with the money.
  • The bulk of their money certainly is NOT going into mortgages or helping small business grow -
  • Lots of Dudley Doright’s (Snidely is Dudley’s arch enemy) suspect that that money is going into Black Box/High Frequency Trades that keep pushing stocks higher. They invest on algorithms and market distortions NOT valuation.
  • Lots of Dorights suspect the money is going into more complex massive derivative market – A still totally UNREGULATED Market
  • Who believes shadow banking culture has changed?
  • Did the Sindlely’s buy off enough in congress to crush banking reform? Will they further weaken reforms in place?

Life is pretty good if your name is Snidely “Big Taxpayer Bonus” Whiplash right now.

Dudley Doright (below)

CiscoWhy their earning Matter to YOU

Teach giant CSCO earnings report shattered the stock yesterday (-16.21%) Its report showed slower than expected growth in Europe, US and especially government spending.

In the US the Obama stimulus/tax cuts, and other world wide stimulus programs have run their course. The US stimulus along with the The Fed’s “print and dump” of $$$$ has been primarily what’s holding up GDP in the USA and improving the jobless picture.

The training wheels have come off the economic trike and yesterday and Cisco is saying things don’t look good. Add to this

  • Palin and other Tea Kettlers (Tom Friedman term) have come out against Bernanke and the print and dump of Fed cash.
  • Lots more Republican governors after election who are going to further cut state spending.
  • No new stimulus seems likely in Congress with Republican takeover of the House.
  • Many European governments are cutting government spending also.

Emerging markets are doing well, but the US & Europe are running along an economic cliff with blindfolds on. Long term we do need to make some serious decisions about our economic future. See NYT editorial – Some Fiscal Reality – that Popeye suggest in comments section of blog.

Fiscal reality while running along an economic cliff.  Yikes.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary



Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.65% up
NASDQ -0.90% up
S&P -0.42% up
Russell 2000 -0.45% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Big volume behind yesterday’s selling with CSCO leading the way down -16.21%. Lots of that volume was the massive 500+ million CSCO shares traded.

Stocks keep absorbing body blows of bad news. See below. We reached a critical resistance level for the dollar. If the dollar breaks out of its range to the upside it should be one uppercut to the chin that could send stocks tumbling to the mat.

Under what used to be a normal market where Investors & a stocks value ruled bears would already be in charge. Mantra - Black Box/High Frequency traders dominate 50 to 80% of this market and they are buying the dips.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] For the 4th day in a row the dollar rose a significant amount. +0.75% yesterday. Dollar broke its support level last week, but yesterday it broke back up through that resistance level. The trend for stocks = BEARISH/Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  a massive -3.59% yesterday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. The BDI has been overshadowed by the dollar moves. Sitting directly above major support. Big breakdown though its support level = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell  to -20.02 yesterday.  = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Three major Bearish sign emerged yesterday.

  • The BDI broke down through its support in a BIG way -3.59% Probable cause – No real unity apparent at G20 hurts world trade.
  • The USD has had a massive 5 day rally. Sure looks like its resistance level will crumble today. (see chart). Stocks have held up remarkably well through the dollars assent, but breaking through resistance is BIG. . If two resistance lines fall – watch out.
  • CSCO massive 16% decline held up though out the day. This is a huge drop for a major major tech stock on earnings. The rest of tech did remarkably well,

When you add CSCO to the dollar’s rise & the BDI’s fall its three strikes. Perhaps a silver lining here is the falling 50 day moving average for the dollar (another significant resistance level) is just $0.56 higher. The dollar is rising like a rocket, but taking out two signicant resistance levels may be hard.


The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • EEM (emerging Markets) Have stop on position at what it was bought for.
  • DGP (2x gold)
  • TYH (3x tech stocks) Bought at 40.63 yesterday. Sold 1/2 near close at at 42.06 for minor @ 3/4+% gain. Stop on the rest at 39.25 – If this gets stopped out today then there will be no gain

Short term traders – TYH was bought because the BB/HFT traders keep supporting stocks. The dollar’s gains were significantly for the 5th day in a row so I sold 1/2.  Probably should have sold it all – but greed won.

Not entering any positions on dip today, but watching UUP (tracking ETF for dollar closely).

Traders & Investors with tolerance for high risk.-  Any significant drop in equities should bring the MO down to -25 (see above) support level and an opportunity to buy. Today is very significant, if we end up with the Dow down 100+ points it will mean the MO has broken support and is probably on its way to -60 or beyond. That would be a point we could start to nibble again.

Investors - I know its been a long wait for the MO to agin get close to -60/oversold/ safer to buy area. Be patient and also remember when we cross -60 everyone going to be saying the sky is falling. MO at -20.02 and today some major bearish signals came into play. So we should reach oversold soon. Today is very significant, if we close with the Dow down 100+ points it will mean the MO has broken support and is probably on its way to -60 or beyond. That would be a point we could start to nibble again.

Remember we are revising YOUR Stock List so send in your choices to me or post them in the comments section of blog. YOUR Stock List works because YOU send in stock ideas. Here the guidelines for entries.

  • The 50 day moving average must be moving up. That’s the blue line if you are using Stockcharts
  • No thinly traded stocks. Absolute minimum $2.5 million dollars worth of this stocks traded each day.  (example over 500,000 shares traded and worth $5) Over $5 million is preferable. Smaller stocks are too easy manipulated by major players.
  • Maximum 2 entries.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocksETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


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July 16, 2010

Obama’s Birthday Presents

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A portrait shot of a serious looking middle-aged African-American male looking straight ahead. He has short black hair, and is wearing a dark navy blazer with a blue striped tie over a light blue collared shirt. In the background are two flags hanging from separate flagpoles: an American flag, and one from the Executive Office of the President.

Obama’s Victories

It may be over the top  to call the events of yesterday Obama victories (credit/blame should be spread), so lets call them birthday presents.

Bottom line -  We should have done better, but it could have been a whole lot worse.

  • The BP oil gusher in the Gulf looks to be completely capped. Also, victory for oil industry who now proves they can stop leak at 5,000+ feet.
  • SEC gets record settlement against shadow bank GS, legislation to prevent what GS did is included in financial reform legislation, but GS wins by preventing a whole lot of bad PR by going to trial.
  • The biggest birthday present is the Financial reform bill passes congress. (Senate, 60 -39)
  • Another big victory is Republican leadership, like in health care, promising to repeal it all instead of saying well keep this part because its good and eliminate that.

Here’s the lead NYT editorial on Financial Regulation. Some relevant points.

  • “Since January 2009, the financial sector has spent nearly $600 million to weaken reform” – they scored many victories.
  • “the margin of victory was really about partisan politics and not the bill’s content.” Majority of blame here is on Republicans, but NYT does not mention Democrats are not without partisan transgressions.

Investors 411 has beat the drum for a tougher bill and it to be more inclusive of transparency in government agencies. However, we got more out of this than we did out of health care legislation. Both are steps in the right direction that need amending.

The next big battle is who heads and is on the board of resolution authority and consumer protection. Geithner is opposing Elizabeth Warren as the new head of Consumer Protection Agency. Warren is perhaps the #1 hero in the accountability, transparency and reform of Wall Street.

YOUR Comments

Sorry I’ve run out of time. However Ewanapat has a fabulous link to a controversial article on Ron Paul/David Stockman . This continues the debate over Barney Frank & Ron Paul stated by SE

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary


Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.07 up
NASDQ -0.03 down
S&P 500 +0.12% up
Russell 2000 -0.87% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Mantra for week “Earnings Season begins this week. - How markets react to news has usually been the key. If a stock shrugs and goes nowhere on good earnings news you know there’s trouble ahead. Remember Black Box algorithms  dominate even more as volume declines.”

  • 2nd Weak volume flat day in a row = Mildly bearish
  • Stocks rallied into close = Bullish
  • BP seems to have fully cap oil spill = Bullish
  • GS settles with SEC, pays record $550 million fine, but avoids prolonged bad PR = Bullish
  • GE reports lowers forecast. Down @2% in pre market trading - Bearish
  • GOOG reported earnings and was down @4.5% in pre market trading (7:45 EST) = Bearish
  • BAC reports and is down @4.5% this AM = Bearish
  • Fin/Reg is over. No ore questions what will legislators do. = Bullish

You can check pre market trading here – Just type in ticker symbol

Significant Indexes-

  • McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +43.48 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. The Black Boxes have not allowed the MO to rise above 80 since 3/09.  Now close to overbought position = mildly bearish
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell a massive -1.04% yesterday [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] The dollar is important  to stocks – Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The Black Box traders, have used the inverse relationship of the dollar as a key part of their trading system. This inverse relationship is part of their algorithmic system. There was a delayed reaction the last time the dollar fell over 1.00% – The next day we had an almost 3% rise in stocks.  For stocks =BULLISH
  • BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also good proxy of China. BDI is in free fall from a high of @4200 to 1700 yesterday. This is a huge -60% drop in almost 8 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a 3 year chart of BDI for context. The BDI fell a much decreased -0.53% yesterday. The decrease could be the start of the BDI finding a bottom – a bullish sign, but too early to tell. Fundamentally the 60% drop is very BEARISH

Reading Tea Leaves

From yesterday is Black Boxes push markets slightly higher. Reasons – dollar probably continues to fall  & momentum higher at close yesterday.”

Today – Yesterday’s huge drop in the dollar gives bulls something to rally on. See analysis of events above. Is the BDI turning? – another sign of hope. The MO is at 43 and there is some wiggle room till 60 and a lot of distance to major resistance at @80. Bad earnings news from giants GE, BAC & GOOG will hurt budding rally.

Wow  - an enormous amount of cross currents impact US stocks differently. Looks like a roller coaster rally. Watch UUP the ETF for the dollar – if it keeps falling stocks go higher.


The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Updated over weekends Investors411 holds ONE position at this time

Same strategy still holds. Our one small short position SH seems to be in some danger today. Short term  traders may  get in trouble with short positions today.

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June 10, 2010

Secrets, Clffs, & Dancing

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Center for Public Integrity


Center For Public Integrity

The two top groups of journalists out there doing investigative journalism in the public interest are the Center for Public Integrity. and - Center for Responsive Politics

Both groups aren’t afraid to go after the polls and power brokers/lobbyists whoever they are. Stories like-

The main focus of YOUR comments over the last few days has been on BP. These two sources above will help. The Huffington Post today echos what YOU said yesterday British Petroleum’s is Worth More Dead than Alive. Yesterday’s -15% drop in BP stock price, if continued, means that YOU – the Tax payer could end up paying for this disaster because BP may soon become bankrupt.

Rolling Stone, sorry Obama fans, front page story is The Spill,the Scandal & the President The Spill is clearly BP’s fault, and Cheney/Bush put the lobbyist and former business executives in place in far more than the energy industry. But, Obama has failed to clean house. Not the change we can believe in

Big Political Shift?

The lead NYT story today focuses on what Investors411 mentioned yesterday – California’s overwhelming passage of Prop 14 -

“traditional party primaries will be replaced in 2011 with wide-open elections. The top two vote-getters — whatever their party, or if they have no party at all — will face off in the general election.”

There are positives and negatives in this legislation. But overall it seems to give more power to moderate voters or have candidates appeal to a broader base in order to win. There are lots of variables, but its certainly a change.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary


Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.41% down
NASDQ -0.54% down
S&P 500 -0.59% down
Russell 2000 +0.10% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks are dancing on the cliff’s edge. Last few Investors411 have focused on how close the major indexes, especially the benchmark S&P 500 are from breaking their last major support level. The S&P (SPX) yesterday closed at 1055 and that edge is at @ 1040.

Major indexes are down @-13 % from their highs. Two different talking heads on the financial channels have mentioned -15% down is a significant figure. Because if its reached over 80% of the time it means -20% or an official bear market will follow.

When you combine this with the fact that we are close to this years low/support level its like dancing on the edge of the cliff.

Good news is stocks fell in decreased, below average volume = Bullish

Bad news volume increased as stocks fell & we ended the days near the low= Bearish

Bernanke spoke to the markets and created a bright picture in the AM. He emphasized “Don’t Cut Spending.” and our recovery while slowly progressing was still “fragile.”

Besides the dollars decline from highs what Yankee Bob brought up – BP - was behind the late day selling. Of course its impossible to exactly know since perhaps 80% of the trading is done by the huge sophisticated computers of mega institutions and their proprietary algorithms.

Futures are up dramatically this AM = Bullish

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose a bit yesterday to -21.25 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. We are a smidge overbought, but basically = NEUTRAL
  • US Dollar –  The dollar fell about the same amount for second day in a row -0.35% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. The dollar had fallen @ 1.00% but rallied in mid afternoon, sending stocks lower. NB – The currency markets dwarf the stock markets in size.

Reading the Tea Leaves – The dollar will probably dominate stocks till earning season. That’s along time for a lot to go wrong or other shoes to drop in Europe. If you want to get really depressed here’s The Black Swan author Nassim Taleb on Debt, Spreading Like a Cancer

Hopefully you don’t share his gloom and doom, I’m more optimistic. But he makes some relevant points.

Traders – Rally day that gets sold into because few want to hold longs over weekend. Watch for news out of Europe.


The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekend.

Investors -It’s simply NOT a time to be in stocks. The long Term Outlook is negative – CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH. Why invest when it looks like stock will be lower over the next 6 months.  The single largest positive we have is stocks become so oversold they stage a counter rally and over the period of perhaps a week to a month you can make profits going long.

The second way to score (make money) is to use the ETF’s that are short the market like SDS (2X short S&P 500), UUP – that is an investment in a rising dollar and/or GLD. The strategy remains the same – buy the dip.

One reason to invest so that you make $ if the markets fall is a hedge. Your income may suffer, so at least on the other end you’ll make money.

Investors411 opened a 2% position in UUP (ETF tracks the dollar)at @25.60 (Have to double check this figure) Will buy more on dips.

Still holding very minor positions in VCI, ESRX & SDS



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May 12, 2010

Mental Health Break

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,


Mental Health Break

From the NYT a photo/video Lens on the World

Absolutely fascinating!

Grant 1949 writes in the comments section yesterday - They just keep finding ways of stealing more money from the people who are just trying to survive… read full comment on right side of blog or here

Yep, It’s frustrating when you see the growing divide between those working just trying to keep their heads above water and the power elite in this country.  Frustrating when only 33 Senators vote to break up the big shadow banks. I agree

Hope we all can take some time out today and just ENJOY!!! Give yourself a Mental Health Break

Check out three of  hundreds photos I loved from the Lens on the World – (If you surf the site it just takes a second to load each photo these take @ 10 seconds)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary


Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.34% down
NASDQ +0.03% down
S&P 500 -0.34% down
Russell 2000 +0.85% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Stocks held onto the gains made on Monday in expectedly lighter volume. After you have a climax sell off in HUGE volume you expect volume to wind down. = Bullish

The old pattern did NOT returned yesterday, & institutions sold into a 1% rally at the end of the day.  Markets are dominated by huge institutions (Hedge Funds, Banks, Investment houses etc) who all have super fast computers and use trading algorithms. About 1:30 these “black boxes” decided to sell and we ended lower.= Bearish

The benchmark S&P 500 closed  at 1155.79. S&P next major resistance level is the 50 Day Moving Average at @ 1172 and support at @ 1150. This is the major trading range to watch. What happened yesterday was the upper end of the trading range was approached/hit (@ 1172) and the HUGE institutions sold. = Bearish

Great source for what’s happening live in markets around the world & in the US before 9:30 EST Wall Street opening at CNBC Slight upside bias for US right now,Europe, Asia basically up, but this could change in an instant

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell  to -53.40 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is just below OVERSOLD territory = buy = Bullish
  • US Dollar – rose +0.38% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important  Dollar is down from last Thursday’s closing and Friday’s interday high. Still close to breakout levels = Neutral
  • The BID – has broken out to a new 5 month high. The Baltic Dry Index measures the cost or flow of goods/trade between countries. This is positive for export countries like Brazil and China, Goods costing more means trade is increasing = Bullish


The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions yesterday) - These are positions I actually own

I revised all positions held by Investors411 yesterday. In POSITIONS (Click on the word at the top of the blog and scroll down to 2010)  As part of house keeping I’m going to eliminate the 2009 positions this weekend.

FXI – Investors411 bought this ETF in the China ETF.  This was done based on the volume behind China’s bounce on Monday and the fact that the BDI is rising.  Like most long ETF position there is a 5 to 7% stop loss limit.

Bottom Line - This is a canary in the coal mine investment - if China can NOT move up despite a rapidly improving BDI (see above) then stocks all over the world are in trouble. There are a lot of investors fearful of a China bubble bursting.  We’ll see.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL


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March 4, 2010


Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Behavioral Economics

Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman is “widely regarded as world’s most influential psychologist” who is also the father of Behavioral Economics. “The Riddle of Experience vs. Memory.” is a very powerful & worthwhile video presentation on understanding why/how your perception of happiness and pain are impacted by memory vs. experience.  The Q&A at the end is especially significant.

From stocks to politics reality is one thing but how you experience that realty determines your action. Investors411 has reference Kahnenman in the past and will in the future.

Millions in America are addicted to pompous windbags screaming and ranting. Kahneman has scientific and logical insight into something that might actually help make you HAPPIER.

Make Markets Be Markets

In less than 18 days we handed out almost $800 billion to financial shadow institutions. In 18 months of the Bush & Obama administrations we have done nothing to fix the problem. The Roosevelt Institute featured a conference on financial reform with perhaps our best hope for some sort of protection Elizabeth Warren as one of the feature speakers.  Lots of other significant personalities attended

Health Care’s Last Stand

Here today’s NYT Editorial on health care – “Congressional Democrats can either move forward legislation to fix this country’s broken health care system or throw away a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

Many of you over the past year have posted comments on this. Including the last one from Popeye (a public option supporter) who thinks “we are kicking a dead horse”

Personally, this legislation does not “fix” health care – it is way too watered down. But, the NYT is right – you will see no significant reform for a generation if it does not pass.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary


Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.09% down
NASDQ -0.00% down
S&P 500 +0.04% down
Russell 2000- +0.15% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Another day that saw stocks rally and fold at the end of the day. Investors are selling into the rallies because the general market conditions are oversold. = Bears taking over.

The big data point is tomorrows jobless number.

Investors clamored to buy Greek debt. Good news for Greece and European Union. But this problem is far from over.

Overbought markets can be very sensitive to bad news.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell to +54.74 yesterday We are now just below +60 or Overbought territory. Still time to seriously consider selling into any rallies.


The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

  • recently bought (added to) EWZ (Brazil) was sold at 72.00 Sold the shares bought on 2/11 for 65.75 Still holding onto shares bought last year at 59.5.  @+6% profit
  • IMAX – Sold 1/2 the shares when it hit stop/loss order at 13.4.  @+6% gain. Wish I had sold earlier into the rally as I suggested.

Investors411 has sold the rest of TYH. & 1/2 of MOO, EWZ & IMAX. Will sell more positions if McClellan rises significantly. Plan to buy if it drops. Will probably buy some at $NYMO (McClellan Oscillator) reaches zero.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL


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December 22, 2009

Market Updates – Santa Clause Rally?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

A Santa Clause Rally for stocks?

YOUR Questions on Health Care

The NYT has come out with its editorial supporting the Senate Health Care Bill. You may disagree with the Times or Nate Silver (See Bob Sadinsky’s comments on right of blog)  but they have the facts. They do omit some of the downside and you can post your objections in the comments section. New York Times takes a clear position – ” A Bill Well Worth Passing LINK

YOUR questions (see D’s comments onside of blog)

  • “Cadillac” Plans – These are the plans that cover virtually everything and have (almost) no co pays. I believe they are above $8,500 a year for an individual & $23,500 for a family. They are going to get taxed.
  • Cuts in Medicare – There is fraud and waste in medicare. An NPR debate on this revealed the following on home health care providers. Obviously home health care saves money  because it often prevents nursing home stays. Example(s) There are now @ 10,000 home health care companies – 800 alone sprang up in Houston About 1/2 of all insulin injections in homes (3 times a day) are now done in Dade County Florida. 1/2 of insulin dependent elderly or disabled diabetics don’t live there. These major anomalies show that some are CHEATING the system. The list went on.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that only got 1 recommendation.

  • HMIN Hotel Inns And Hotels Management – Discount hotels in China – China is growing and this is a discount hotel chain that’s growing faster. Chart shows after a rally HMIN has formed a base. If/when FXI moves higher HMIN should do even better. On chart notice all the big volume spikes on up days = bullish
  • CAAS China Automotive Systems – Another small cap China stock. Remember the Chinese now buy more cars than Americans. Small caps usually outperform in any rally. This chart is pulling back to its 5o day moving average and that is a buy the dip opportunity.
  • VPRT Vistaprint - You happened to picked the company that does my business card’s.  My wife thinks they are the best deal out there. Chart shows and a rising blue line (50 day moving average) and that’s always good. A recent dip makes it a buy the dip opportunity. Volume getting weaker is not a good sign.
  • SHOO Steve Madden – Shoes – Apparent the shoes to buy right now. Again lots of those green volume spike bars on chart. This shows some institutions are buying
  • FSLR . First Solar – Solar technology and building a huge plant in Mongolia (China) Just about every analyst who follows alternative energy has something to say about FSLR. Chart not in clear upward trend as above 4 stocks. Perhaps a good buy because of China connection but right now weak technically
  • GE - General Electric Industrial giant – Basically, so big it follows US markets. Chart shows consolidation pattern right now. Under performing US markets right now.

Ran out of time – more tomorrow – For those of you who love the danger of individual stock picks the top 4 should do well if markets move higher.

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid


Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.83% down
NASDQ +1.28% down
S&P500 +1.05% down
Russell2000- +1.32% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks are rising despite a rising dollar. We almost had a significant rise in both the dollar (+0.41% ) and a barely significant (above 1.00% ) rise inmost major stock indexes. Volume decreased.  Yes this a market that is NOT making new highs (NASDQ & S&P 500) in GROWING volume.  That’s troubling and indicates an expanding bubble – unless we can grow volume.  However the relationship between the dollar and stocks is breaking down in a positive manner for stocks. They are both RISING = Bullish for stocks

McClellan Oscillator at +25 (see below) gives us some wiggle room for stocks to move higher before we reach overbought levels of +60 = Santa Clause Rally caps

FEARLESS FORECAST Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary LINK


Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade& China) . -104 yesterday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart)


The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.41% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.75

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish


$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +25.17 This is a little Overbought Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal


The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades


Positions section of blog was updated over weekend.  44+% Invested in stocks -

  • FXI (China) 18% (selling 6% into any rally – 24- 6=18% – see Friday’s update)Still holding on
  • EWZ (Brazil 16%)
  • MOO (agriculture (10)%

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.


See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog


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June 6, 2008

Market Update – The Truth About War

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Uncategorized - Tags: , , , ,

Sorry limited time this AM – No time to format.

The Truth About the War

Finally, after years of Republican stonewalling the Senate’s Intell Report has become public. It is the lead editorial of the NYT. Finally we are getting the facts about of all the propaganda, fabrications and lies that sold the American public on the Iraq war. Last week Scott McCllelen, Bush’s press secretary revealed his insider’s view and now the Senate has published the facts. Most Update readers of are already aware of that the causes of the Iraq war were fabricated propaganda. But the more sources that bring these injustices to light the better it is for our country, democracy, morality and the world.

From the NYT

The report shows that there was no intelligence to support the two most frightening claims Mr. Bush and his vice president used to sell the war: that Iraq was actively developing nuclear weapons and had longstanding ties to terrorist groups. It seems clear that the president and his team knew that that was not true, or should have known it — if they had not ignored dissenting views and telegraphed what answers they were looking for.

Over all, the report makes it clear that top officials, especially Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, knew they were not giving a full and honest account of their justifications for going to war.

NYT editorial


Everything moved higher. Oil prices gushed higher and stocks exploded to some of the best gains of the year

Obviously something is not right when oil prices rise 4.49% and major stock indexes also explode about 2% higher. You would expect stocks to fall if oil rises and visa versa. Volume was a bit above average for both stocks and oil – so volume did not confirm either move. The big question is which one will continue to go higher?

Reading the tea leaves – Answer – In the short term stocks should go up and oil go down. Oil prices are so extended above their 200 day or 40 week moving average they need to take a breather.

Every technical analyst on the planet knows that oil prices are way over extended. What probably happened yesterday is that a lot of traders (traders as opposed to longterm investors) got caught shorting oil and had to buy to cover their shorts when oil gushed higher. 4.49% is a huge move for oil. There was no major fundamental of story behind the price increase. Best guess is a bunch of major oil speculators colluded to drive oil prices higher and when a resistance level fell everyone was thrown into panic.

Short term it looks like energy related ETF are going to flatten or fall because oil prices are so over extended are way over extended.

NEUTRAL – Long Term Outlook


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