Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 19, 2012

We’re Back

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

.

Because of your emails

Investors411 is back.

.

However, instead of a daily basis

411 will  published two times a month

The focus will be the same

Stocks/economics/politics

.

The comments section,

as always remains open

on a daily basis

.

For Your Patience

.

As many of you know this editor

and many of you spent much

of the last three months

working for the election of

.


Rachel Maddow on

The results

.

—————————

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STOCKS

.

PAUL’S CORNER

.

.

.

I had the great pleasure of attending Ian Woodward’s HGSI Workshop this past October in Palos Verdes California. Lots of great review and always some new material that would as Ian suggests “knock your socks off!” and it did! Ian shares some of the finest market knowledge you can find. Ian produces a great blog and it will keep you on the right side of the market.

IAN’S BLOG

Ron Brown presented some great new searches for finding strong stocks. Ron suggests following stocks with strong consistent accumulation and he gave us the software to find the winners. Ron also gave a great presentation on trading options.  He showed us how to find proper stocks to trade options using the HGSI software. Options are new to me and the information Ron gave will be a great lesson.

Gil Morales, a long time analyst that worked for William O’Neil of Investor’s Business Daily, gave us an excellent presentation on shorting stocks. We came home with Gil’s presentation showing proper chart formations for shorting.

Dr. Jeffrey Scott, a longtime HGSI user, gave a good lesson on creating your own index of stocks to follow that will show when the market is breaking down. As a group we selected 24 strong stocks with great chart patterns. These sorts of stocks usually are fat with profits and will be the first to cash in with a collapsing market. Here is a chart of the index and it shows a break down with the market, but bounced nicely Friday. The leaders are usually the first to bounce up when the market turns up, we’ll keep an eye on this

Chart.


The following chart of Nasdaq Composite clearly shows the warning signs as we headed into this correction. A look at the chart with moving averages is all you need!

Chart

The current MO for the NYSE is -53.92, past history shows we usually bounce from this point, but there is a lot more to the down side that the MO can go. It’s probably too soon to start nibbling.

Watch the comments section if the market turns up I will start posting a


“stocks to watch list”.

.

Even when Barr takes a break from posting, remember we can always post comments and questions to the latest blog post, so don’t go away mad………

Paul

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——————————

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Obviously much of 411′s data  (see links at heading on top) is out of date.

.

Over the Thanksgiving holiday

I’ll try to update

.

There are many significant problems for stocks

including the fiscal cliff, tax selling, Europe, wars, and more

.

But , as Paul points out,

our main tool

reached oversold/buy territory

last Thursday and is now

sitting just above oversold levels

.

So I’m thinking about nibbling on stocks

rather than selling

.

But, I sure understand being hesitant.

The main danger to bulls is unpredictable

fiscal cliff and Mideast war

.

How to use McClellan Oscillator

here

(Scroll down)

.

A Trade

Those of you who know how, my best advice is a put/call combination trade whose options expires in January/February or beyond. This is based on the belief that US markets will move dramatically as fiscal cliff deadline looms. (42 days) Also if there is a solution stocks will move dramatically.

.

___________________

.

Long Term Outlook

(3+months)

NEUTRAL.



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July 3, 2012

Two Scandals Explode

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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International Banking

Scandal Explodes

b

.

Too Big to Fail

Bankstas

Skim YOUR money from

2005 to 2009

Before, During, After 2008

worldwide financial meltdown

.

Massive Furor in UK/Europe

Where’s the Outrage Here?

.

Who owns the politicians

and the media?

.

.

“There’s vast criminality in Wall Street now.


It’s bribery, theft, fraud, bid rigging, price


fixing, gambling, loan sharking. All of these


things, it’s all organized.” - MATT TAIBBI

.

.

Just 1 of the 17

too big to fail

Banksta/Vampire Squids

has settled with

gov’t regulators

[List includes a who's who

of too big to fail US banks]

.

Skimming/profiting from

YOU and World Hunger

.

Today’s Headline

Barclay’s CEO resigns

in disgrace

______

.

We’re all outraged that none

of the plutocracy ever goes to jail

under Obama

.

.

The catastrophic outrage is

Romney and Republicans want to

cut Regulators and Regulations

that are catching bankstas

who steal YOUR money

.

******************

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Drug Cartel Scandal

Explodes

.

$3 Billion Fine

Biggest Ever

.

.

Glaxo Smith Kline

.

Failure to Report safety problems

Promoted drugs for unapproved uses

Drugs that cause heart failure

Drugs we give our Children

Seven Years of deceit

.

At least, the Amounts of Fines

are increasing

$22+ billion collected

.

.

How much longer are

you

going to remain silent?

.,

Romney and Republicans

are demanding

less regulations, less regulators

and “free markets”

for the Banking and Drug cartels.

.

******************

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STOCKS

.

.

.

Unless we get

regulators and regulations

the ultimate end pictured above

.

But for now

Second half of 2012 Outlook now

in POSITIONS section of blog

(scroll down to Outlook for 2nd 1/2 of 2012)

.

From Yesterday

“Short term - Hopeful, of bullish bias (see above) till earnings season – Starts end if next week.

If stocks can hold onto or add to Friday’s gains today/this week – its positive for US stocks”

We held onto Friday’s gains = Bullish

.

The McClellan Oscillator

is at OMG overbought levels

+85.09.

For over three years it has been

impossible to move higher from

OMG overbought in the short term

.

Expect, at least consolidation

before any significant gains

.

Long Term Outlook

3+ months

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS


.


.

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June 10, 2012

Privatize Gains/Socialize losses

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Yogi Berra

.

Deja Vu

All Over Again

.

.

$126 Billion Spanish

Bailout

.

The US economy’s GDP

is over 10X

Larger than Spain’s.

Therefore, relatively, this is an

.

OMG massive

$1.26 Trillion Bailout

.

Ours was mere $700 billion.

.

____________

.

Banksters

..

Privatizing Gains

Socializing Risk

in Spain

.

.

When Eurozone was Introduced the regulators

allowed banks to buy unlimited amounts

of government bonds

without setting aside any equity capital”

.

Sound Familiar?

In 2004 our SEC allowed US Banks

to become massively over leveraged too.

.

Banksters didn’t care. They could

extract money from bundled loans

and profit by selling them on the

opaque derivatives market

.

_____________

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411′s Most used image of

Banksters

The Vampire Squid

.

.

The Truth

Whose Really Getting

Bailed Out

.



Banksters & Plutocrats

across the world

get Bailed out

.

But since the derivatives

market is opaque,

who knows?

.

____________

.

Spain’s

Housing/Financial Bubble

began to pop in 2007/2008

just like the USA.

.

AUSTERITY

[Cut spending, No bailout for middle class, Raise taxes]

was introduced as the solution

the result -

Job loss, recession and

worse yet to come

.

.

Small consolation -

At least, now, the ECB

is demanding NO new

AUSTERITY

measures with this bailout

.

Spain, has already been

driven onto poverty.

Unemployment has

already gone from

8% to 24+%

.

.

Postscript

.

Obama is NOT a

Teddy Roosevelt -

A President that stood

up to Plutocrats/Banksters

.

.

However, Obama did stimulate,

cut taxes and again forced an

additional payroll tax cut.

.

Imagine if

we followed Austerity

instead of Stimulus

.

Our unemployment has NOT

exploded from 8% to 24%

.

For a Real SOLUTION

see Robert H’s

editorial/comment

.

Obviously, we should see

major worldwide stock

rallies

Monday


Finis



.


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April 25, 2012

Austerity or Growth

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

.

It’s Official

Keynes & Krugman

are Right

.

Prize Award Ceremony

.

At least for the Dutch

French and most of Europe

.

Keynes and Krugman are two Nobel Prize winning Economists who believe you stimulate your way out of a recession. Austerity plunges you deeper into the recession.


After several years of austerity right wingers in France and Holland (yesterday’s elections), plus many more got the message.

From Yahoo Finance

the money quote

.

“The “austerity” idea, you’ll remember, was that the continent’s huge debt and deficit problem had ushered in a “crisis of confidence” and that, once business-people saw that governments were serious about debt reduction, they’d get confident and start spending again.”

.

“That hasn’t worked.”

.

____________

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The Obama

Economic Triumph

.


Facing Financial Armageddon,

a -8.9% GDP rate & the losses of Almost -800,000 a month

Obama took offic in Jan 2008.

.

By the end of 2010 GDP had soared to between +2% and+3%

and job growth had turned positive up to +250k a month


.

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP

In 2010 the uncompromising

Tea Party Republicans took over,

the Obama Stimulus Ran out, and

therefore, growth came to a halt.

.

  • Moving from a -9% GDP to a +2/3% GDP is real Change You can Believe in
  • Moving From a -800,00 jobs a month to +200,000 jobs is real Change you can Believe in.

.

Please show me another President

who has taken GDP from -9% to +2/3%

.

The problem

.

We have a big deficit, Europe already shown austerity leads to another recession, Japan got clobbered, China’s GDP is shrinking and Apple’s huge earnings success yesterday just leads to more Chinese jobs.

European voters have realized that just austerity doesn’t work.

.

So should you.

.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

.


  • APPL had one of those OMG earnings report.  Sales were so so in the USA, but in China they were spectacular.
  • Spanish Bonds have fallen for the last two days and are SIGNIFICANTLY  below the 6.00% danger zone at 5.79%. Latest update for traders HERE
  • NB -Apple’s earnings are a reflection of their business doing spectacular in China and not in the USA – Reuters story

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Kudos to Monitor (long term Apple holder) who a full day before the earnings report suggested AAPL return to YOUR Stock List.  Apple should lead tech and the S&P, but obviously don’t expect results like last quarter. There will be a group of investors/traders who will again buy the first dip.

Longer term – The Cavalry sure looks like its come to the rescue in Spain. Friends of the FED and ECB are keeping Spanish bonds below the danger Zone.


.

*************************

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PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Your Stock List

.


.

April is almost over

Now is your chance to get your favorite stock

added to Your Stock List!

.

Effective April 30 all current YSL members are being removed.

On May 1 we will announce  the new list

.

List YOUR top stocks in the comments section or email them to Barr ASAP.

The only requirement is that a stock trades at least $5,000,000 dollars a day. Example –  Stock XYZ is worth $10 and trades 500,000 shares a day. This way we eliminate stocks that are not liquid and subject to more manipulation.

If you like defend your stock in a sentence or two.

From YOUR selections Barr & I will try to to come up with a list of 10 to 15 stocks that again will beat the S&P 500. These stocks will be tracked throughout the month. Entry and exit points will be suggested.

.

As most of you know

This process has worked!

ONLY because of

YOUR  participation.


Of the 8 stock Lists only one

has failed to beat the S&P 500

.

Group performance results for the month of April will be listed Tuesday morning.


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*******************

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Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL

These bonds are now back below 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 23, 2012

Santorum Shocks

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

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Santorum Shocker

.

.

“Obama’s Better Than

Etch A Sketch Romney”

.

Have you ever seen a major candidate from one party say the other party’s candidate (Obama) would make a better president?

.

Lead story/interview from  NBC More from Huffington Post More from CBS

Why the “Etch A Sketch” Label will stick - Time Magazine’s Joe Klein

.

.

Romney, spent yesterday emphasizing that the bailout save the USA from a

“full scale depression.”

Bush, Paulson, Bernanke and a majority of Dems supported the bailout.

.

*******************

.

A Personal Note

.

.

Serial Misogynist

Rush Limbaugh

.

As CDB says in the comments section of the blog – “few have problems with those who make one or a few politically incorrect statements.” True.

.

Personally, I have a wife, daughters and grand daughter and I am going to defend them to my utmost ability against anyone who dehumanizes and objectifies them. Especially, someone who continually does this day after day, after day.

Bullies wont stop unless YOU take a stand.

.

******************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Headline

.

openingimage

.

China

Is The Bubble Bursting?

(Photo from ETF Digest)

.

  • The possibility of a hard landing as the Chinese economy slows down became more real yesterday. This sent shivers to stock markets around the world. Story from International Business Times
  • Its a bit surprising that US stocks fell as little (@-0.5%) as they did (lighter volume too) on the China news.
  • More confirmation of a hard landing for the Chinese economy would have a negative impact on US and world equities.
  • The major fundamental behind stocks remainsCentral Banks printing money and low interest rates. It forces money/people that want a higher rate of return into stocks and other riskier assets.

Therefore a Long Term Bullish Bias

______________

.

.

Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -49.53. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) MO approaching oversold territory = NEUTRAL/bullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. From two days ago - “The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms. However,…the chart  looks like we maybe heading down the next few days. Would love to see a dip low enough (past-60) for a clearer MO buy signal.”

.

______________

.

.

Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up again  to 5.16% (7:15 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone, but its started to rally again
  • Reports out of Spain (the second largest European country in trouble) are worsening. Rising to 5.49% rate at yesterday’s close.
  • Our USA canary in the coal mine - The US ten year T bill broke out of its trading range two weeks ago. Hardly something to worry about yet. Rates have fallen last two days to  2.27% yield. But rising rates is something to keep an eye on.

_____________

.

.

Reading Tea Leaves


Bottom Line – From two days ago “The rally off the last dip is cooling off…. So this does look like a ”healthy”rest for stocks. If our MO goes low enough, perhaps a buy the dip situation will arise.”

We have had warnings of a fundamental shift in China. How dramatically and/or fast China slows down is significant. Probably not a concern, because China will manufacture (lie or exaggerate) about data. But something to keep an eye on.

Still looking for the MO to drop low enough to “buy the dip.”

.

********************

.

YOUR Stock List

.

A week or two ago Paul Listed some of the stocks in YSL #8 that had become potential “Buy The Dip Candidates.”

Your never near 100% (unless your a HFT trader), but there have been, as Popeye would say,  some

.

Winner Winner

Chicken Diner Stocks.

.

  • FT - Footlocker - chart
  • CMG – Chipoltechart
  • DLTR – Dollar Tree – chart

Considering three down days in a row,

The Results Deserve some

Trumpets

.

There’s more – Review the whole list here (March 12th blog – scroll down)

Check out the comments section of blog for more.

_________

.

A Special Shout Out to George

who suggested buying Etch a Sketch Stock two Days ago

Etch a Sketch stock (Ohio Art OART:OTC US) went from $4.00 to $12.50 yesterday. This is one very small company. Proving, once again, how important fundamentals are to stock prices.


..

**********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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March 12, 2012

That Giant Sucking Sound

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

.

Job Creation

.

.

Jobs chart above is the number of jobs created over last four years. It does not include Friday’s report which has upward revisions of last two months and a +227k for February.

,

This enhanced version does

.

Depending on your political bias you give Obama lots of the credit/blame for the number of jobs created.

.

Let’s take a closer look at job creation.

.

“That Giant Sucking Sound”

.

.

Ross Perot, was the most significant third party candidate for President in my lifetime. His “giant sucking sound” quote was the jobs leaving the USA because of globalization and our so called “free market” trade treaties.

At the time, we all thought he was a bit crazy. But, times have changed. Here’s two big reasons why.

.

Our Systemic Jobs Problem

.

Globalization


  • Jobs abroad – Apple Computer700,000 plus jobs in China and only 45,000 in the USA. Latest editorial by Bob Kutner (from my home town) Steve Jobs and American Jobs. FYI – I’m typing on a MAC
  • We tax all Chinese goods at 2%, while China taxes all US goods at 25%.

.

Ross Perot was proven right a long time ago -

The “giant sucking sound” is jobs going abroad.

.

Job Creation Under Obama

.

.

The Factors

.

  • Obviously systemic Globalization as described above – A systemic NEGATIVE for US job creation.
  • Stimulus Package, Tax Cuts, and Jobs Bills (give it whatever grade you want) Introduced second month of Obama presidency – POSITIVE Impact
  • QE #1 & 2 (plus other Fed measures like low interest rates) – Introduced early POSITIVE Impact
  • Republican take over House in 2010 – NO new jobs bills passed since – NEGATIVE Impact.
  • Last year – Japan meltdown, European Crisis, Emerging Market’s GDP ‘s shrink.  - NEGATIVE Impact.
  • Lots of Baby boomers start to retire this year - POSITIVE impact.
  • Auto Industry saved – POSITIVE Impact
  • Well over 500,000 government jobs cut since Obama took office. Most of any president - NEGATIVE impact

Perhaps some major factor impacting jobs has been missed. Consider, also, we did face financial Armageddon when Obama took office.

.

What would you do different?

Are there other factors?

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

.

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

,

Headline

.

Central Banks

Push Markets Higher

[Same as Friday]

.

  • The long term trend remains (sorry for the repetition) - Don’t fight the Central Banks – As long as they are dumping liquidity (printing money) to cover up losses anyone who has thought stocks would falter over the last three years has been on the wrong side of this trade.”

______________

.

Old Faithful

.

Almost too good to be true. Old Faithful – The McCellan Oscillator – has worked yet again as an indicator of at least a short term bottom. A bit under 20 times in the last three years it has been a very accurate measurement of technical tops and bottoms.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to -0.17.  (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) NO technical pressure on  either bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

.

______________

.

.

Canary in A European Coal Mine

.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up slightly to 4.88% (8:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.
  • European canary still singing Ode to Joy.

Bottom Line

.

Repeat – “Many many retail investors (long term holders) have left the market since the 2008 meltdown.

Many of those that remain have waited for a break even point where they could get out without losing $$$. Major US indexes are back near that point now.

So there should be some additional selling into rallies.

It would be healthy for markets to move sideways or take at least a 3 to 5% dip after a 20+% run higher since October. But stocks and economies are being manipulated by Central Banks and this might not happen.

.

If the liquidity keeps flowing

stocks will keep growing

.

******************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

.

Additions and Changes

to Your stock List!

.

As I suggested in the comments section Friday, don’t go crazy here thinking the correction is over! Trade if you want but be careful. We had signs this was coming for over a month, all of that won’t disappear in two days.

.

ADDITIONS

.

FL – Foot Locker, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of athletic footwear and apparel. The company operates in two segments, Athletic Stores and Direct-to-Customers.

HD – The Home Depot Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer.

IMAX – IMAX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment technology company specializing in motion picture technologies and presentations worldwide.

URI – United Rentals, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental company. It offers approximately 3,000 classes of equipment for rent to customers comprising construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities, homeowners, and government entities.

.


TRADERS

.

CMG – continues it march to the stars, quite an impressive chart, Moe’s South West grille has a better product, but isn’t publicly traded.

DLTR - great chart, headed for the BIG dollar in the sky!

ENB - basing, above the 17, 2 kahunas the past two days

FAST – good chart, buy any small pull back

FL – nice tight chart, buy any small dip

IBM – good chart, buy any small dip

HD – nice tight chart, buy any dip

IMAX – back by popular demand, check with : ) D for trading suggestions!

KLAC - Sitting on the 50, appears to be coming out of a dip

LEN - on its way with the home builders, extended

MA – near 52 week high, extended

MNST – gap up Friday, 52 week high, buy any small dip

RYL - Above the 17 & 50, buyable

TSCO – good chart, above the 17, buy any dip

URI – above the 17 buy able.

WATCHERS

.

AKRX – pulled back with 2012 guidance, sitting on the 50, I sold

BKI – HGSI indicators are now green, on the 50

KOG – above the 17 and the 50, basing.

DUMPSTERS

.

SIMO – As Rick Santorum suggests, I might throw up looking at this chart.

CATM - sitting on the 17 just above the 50, basing removed from Your Stock List to make room for new additions.

FTK – at the moment a very annoying stock, buy at your own risk

Be sure to check earnings release dates, that’s your responsibility not mine!

Disclaimer – all comments for education only, buy or trade at your own risk. At time of writing I do own some of the stocks listed.


..

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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February 10, 2012

Et Tu Barack

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

.

Et Tu Barack

.

.

Pac Man


This week Obama confirmed he’s part of the Oligarchy that is tearing American democracy apart and transferring trillions of dollars of wealth from the vast majority of Americans into a kleptocratic American aristocracy.

.

Obama Endorsed

Super PACs This Weeks

.

Some of the best editorial

.

.

There are a few rays of  democracy/sunshine

left in America’s political system

.

Elizabeth Warren (D) and Scott Brown (R) in Massachusetts have agreed NOT to allow Super PAC money in their campaigns.

Warren and Brown’s Pledge May Not Hold up, but

Lots  of us will keep up its fight for Democracy.

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

  • Market Fundamentals driving stocks have NOT changed in any dramatic way. Of course, they can in the future.
  • A “healthy” 2 to 5% technical correction seems like it could happen.  Paul pointed yesterday to AAPL  (overextended/climax selling) as a probable cause for a technical correction.
  • Right now I view this as a buying opportunity.
  • Still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Barr

Paul’s Corner


Hit the top?

I learned from my good friend Ian Woodward (HGSI) a long time ago to let the market tell you which way the market is going rather than  guessing. Each evening I take a quick look at the market to see if we have any signals as to which way the market is heading.  After the close yesterday, HGSI gave us the first update of the evening about 5:30 ET and within a minute or two I knew where the market went and the possible direction it is going. Here are a few of the notes I scribbled down on my note pad.

VIX up 2.6% today, Russell small caps off while Naz 100 up, Consumer Staples top of the list today, looks like flight to quality. MO on the S&P 1500 fell to near zero. No major damage to YSL. Stay away from SIMO! All HGSI Indicators for SIMO are red!

So it appears the money is heading for security. Pre market futures are down and the rest of the world has been trading off over night. The last few days the markets have struggled to finish positive and many high flying stocks closed off with profit takers emptying the till near the close. So will we trade down or up today? Um ask Barr I don’t know, but I will be ready to protect my profits. Buying new long positions at the time takes some real guts which I don’t have!

As I have mentioned several times, HGSI and EdgeRater are giving a great video class series on using the two products for superb market analysis.

Ian Woodward gave an excellent 45 minute presentation this week on how he analyzes which way the market is going by following %B and his new proprietary “Woody” indicator. This video is classic Ian and he gives you the whole basket of what to look for in the market and how. A long time market guru, one of the sharpest folks I know and a great teacher, here is the link to his video:

IAN WOODWARD VIDEO

This video class series is still going on and available for you to participate. While taking the classes you get free use of HGSI and EdgeRater software.  If you are serious about developing your investing skills, this is one class you need to take, and for crying out loud, IT’S FREE!

HGSI Course Register:

My favorite high demand stock search produced the following results for Thursday Feb. 09,

HIGH DEMAND  LINK

As always please make your own trading decisions. All comments above are based on chart action and if you think I can read the charts, I have a bridge I can get you a great deal on!


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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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February 2, 2012

The Million Dollar Club

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Whose Buying Democracy?



The Million Dollar

Super Pac Club

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At some point in time $1,000,000 or even the Adelson’s (now) S11,,000,000 million will seem like chump change to give to a Super Pack.

By then our democracy will be like Russia’s oligarchy or  the one Party state of China.

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The Oligarchs contributing to Super PAC’s


Romney’s $1,000,000 Super Pac Club

  • Steven Lund - Formed a company just to contribute then company vanishes.
  • Edward Corner – VP Bain – Had to be outed.
  • Jeremy BlickenstaffLund’s Son in Law
  • Julian Robertson – Hedge Fund Owner/Manager
  • Paul Singer – Hedge Fund Owner/Manager
  • Robert Mercer – Hedge Fund Owner/Manager
  • John Paulson – Hedge Find Owner/Manager

Every one for these individuals, because they are associated with/runs a venture capitalist or hedge fund pay the same tax Romney did for all his years at Bain

15% or less – You suckers pay more.

How many Swiss and Caymen Island Bank account’s here?

Obama – $2,000,000 Super Pac Club

  • Jeffery Katzenberg - Dreamworks

What’s missing ?

and More Important

(I’m just one person up against a deadline)

  • Bundlers for Unions and Companies that amass millions
  • The massive Pack of donors who give more than legal $2,500 to a campaign, but less than a $1,000,000
  • The donors who give to both sides
  • The oligarchs who are smart enough to wait till the last quarter to give so that their names won’t be made public till after the election.

The Bottom Line

Below

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Short Term Outlook

  • “Golden Cross” -  This term has a lot of significance especially for long tome technical analysts and old school investors. It’s when the 50 Day Moving Average of price crosses the 200 DMA. That happened yesterday = Bullish
  • Repeat from Monday -” A lot of 2012 has to do with politics. Do we keep the Bernanke/Obama team that has almost doubled the S&P 500 and led to a slow, but steady economic recovery in place or do politics dramatically alter this?”
  • Repeat – Long term - As long as interest rates stay low, and there is liquidity without inflation – investment money seeking higher returns will be forced into stocks and bonds. This dynamic has not changed under Bernanke/Obama even though other significant sectors of the world have taken some big hits (Europe & Japan) or are slowly pulling back – China.

The POSITIONS page does not yet reflect the 2012 Outlook.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +45.61 . 50DMA at +8.96 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)  Short term = neutral/BEARISH
  • The MO can be read like any chart (see  above link) This is the 6th time in 6 weeks the MO has approached +60. It failed the other 5 times. That’s one very very strong resistance level.
  • Mantra - Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • Combination Option Trades – Congratulations to two of you who made $ on an AMZN combination options trade.  Not a lot, but a 10 to 25% profit. NFLX , we all made out on this one last quarter, reported last night. The option prices were too high to risk this trade, but it sure looks like it may have worked again.

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Paul’s Corner

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Your Stock List 2012 Changes and Updates

KLAC – being added to Your Stock List.

KLA-Tencor Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries.

Chart Comments

AKRX – broken out of a 2 month base, hit 52 week high

BKI – fell after earnings report, bounced off of the 50 dma, watch

CATM – broken down though the 50 dma, all HGSI indicators red, ready to be removed from YSL, however reports after the close this evening Feb 2, est 0.36, we will wait for the report and watch the chart before and final decision to remove.

CMG – riding up the 9 dma, a true warrior! I love the chart but not the food!

DLTR – riding up the 17 dma

ENB – all indicators green, recently bounced off the 50, shows strength

FAST – riding up the 17

FTK – in a correction, never broke the 50, watch!

IBM – top of current trading range

KLAC - riding up the 9 dma

KOG - chart trending down with the oil stocks, sitting on the 50

LEN – basing on the 17

MA – correcting, buyable if it crosses up through the 50

MNST – has been a monster of a stock, pulling back from it’s recent high, in a dip, buyable as per our buy the dip suggestions, link below

RYL – Basing on the 17

SIMO – basing and in a dip, buyable as per our buy the dip suggestions, link below

TSCO - reported after the close Wednesday. Came in at 0.96 vs est of 0.91. Revenues reported lower than expected. Trading down about -1.5% after hours. Support is at the 17 dam 78.40. If it breaks, the next support is the 50 dma which is about 74.

Note: good stocks ride up the 50, great stocks ride up the 17, warriors ride up the 9, stocks in an exhaustion run ride up the 4!

Buy the dip suggestions

LINK

Many of these stocks are about to report earnings, have you checked the dates?

Disclaimer – All chart comments are for education only, please do your own research and make your own decisions. Kindly don’t blame me or Barr if you buy a dog and lose your life savings.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

The benchmark S&P 500 is at 1324. The 50 day moving average is at 1260 and rising. We would have to come close to the 50 DMA before a significant change  in Long Term Outlook is considered.

We are up against strong technical resistance. But ultimately its fundamentals that will determine market direction. What Central Banks (US & Europe) do and will the payroll tax cut be continued, are the foreseeable  major factors determining market direction.

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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January 30, 2012

Buying Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

.

Buying Democracy

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How money

Wins Campaigns and  Destroys Democracy

Part 2

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What if Sheldon Adelson (8th richest man in USA and pictured above) decides to give Newt Gingrich’s Super Pac more than the $10,000,000 he already has? After all $10 million is not even close to one day’s profits from his giant gambling empire.

What if Adelson gives $100,000 million?

What if a Saudi Prince through an American corporation he own/controls/influences  decides to give a $100,000 million?

What if George Soros (7th richest in the USA) decides to give Obama $100,000 million?

Just because Adelson’s chosen to be open about his contribution, doesn’t mean the others have to be open about their contribution.

Money sure helps win elections. (There are some other infuencing factors)

  • Gingrich & Romney spend the same amount of  money in S. Carolina and Gingrich wins.
  • Romney spends the 5 times what Gingrich does in Florida and Romney wins

Where is the Outrage in the media?

There is almost none.

Why?

Because both Democrats and Republicans are out getting all  wealthy oligarch Super Pac money they can.

Its all legal.

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Here’s a photo of one leader who has consolidated power in a supposed democracy with the help of his own wealthy oligarchy. Now, Even billionaires who opposed him are in Siberian jails.

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Russia’s Vladimire Putin with a former friend

Think this will never happen in the USA?

Did you ever think there would be a legal $10,000,000 campaign contribution to influence a presidential campaign by a Vegas casino owner in the USA and no one cares?

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Short Term Outlook

  • Technicals (Just a reminder of how to evaluate markets/sectors/stocks) Technical analysis identifies the trend by looking at charts of how stocks move. Simplest form a stock price goes up = bullish trend. Down = bearish trend.
  • Chart patterns get a bit more complicated than simply up = bullish and down = bearish, but all in all they act as signposts, or traffic lights on a (price level) road. The worst signs are U turn and Detour.
  • Fundaments- These are the drivers of stocks –  The earnings reports, the jobs number, GDP, money supply and a host of other significant factors.
  • Fundaments are the drivers and the car that move along the road. One good or bad earning report can shatter any sign or light on the technical road.

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  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO)was basically flat at +46.98(for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)  = NEUTRAL/bearish
  • Repeat from Friday – “The MO can be read like any chart (see  above link) – Three times in January the MO has tried to break out above the 55 to 60 range and failed. Yet is has stayed in a very tight range between 30 and 60. If this range/trend breaks  on the top side bulls win and on the bottom bears win. The fact that the trend is from + 30 to + 60 instead of minus is BULLISH
  • DAX (Germany)  down 1.2%  at 9AM EST. Not good for US markets. Big European Meeting this week. But they are all big meetings. Just lie all 19 Republican debates – each is hyped and hyped
  • Two more considerations for Option combinations. BIDU (Monday earnings) A short term trade.MCP as a possible long option term combination trade.
  • Reading Tea Leaves – It seems the majority of market tea leaf readers I look at are predicting some kind of pull back this week – It would be healthy if markets had a minor consolidation. Earnings season is winding down so outside economic news will start to dominate.
  • The Key to Watch for – Any signs of Central Banks manipulating stocks or bonds. Rumors of a QE #3 abound. (google – news QE 3)

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Paul’s Corner

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Home Builders Fact or Fiction?

This Saturday I posted the following home building discussion into the comments section. I am reposting it here in case you missed it.

Key Report for Home Builders ETF

LINK

Check the video in the report!

Fact or Fiction?

Now before any of you suggest I should have considered this sort of information before adding several home builders to Your Stock List, keep in mind I read the charts, watch the Industry Groups , etc., and trade accordingly.

Six weeks ago or so I posted a list of home builders to check out. Several had nice charts and a very nice price climb since that post. Did any of you profit from that post? URI was on that list and you would have made a bundle!

LINK

Back in October in the comments section I made a post listing home building stocks that were found in my favorite HGSI High Demand Search. I wish I had paid attention to that signal HGSI handed out!

RYL posted earnings Friday and its share price dropped like a rock at the open to 16.96 and almost immediately climbed to 19 and closed for the day at 18.41. I didn’t listen to the conference call but investors must have liked what they heard.

Several other builders (LEN, DHI) have reported good earnings, beat estimates etc. So do we ignore the charts or trade based on one of Cramer’s videos? That video almost makes you scared to never buy a home builder again. Is the economy that bad? I donno, manufacturing factories are opening nicely in my area, they are hiring again.

Semiconductors

Oh, the semis are moving. Your Stock List and your participation is appreciated. Post them in the comments section so we all can discuss them or email them to Barr.

LINK

HGSI Scans

Here is the link to my post in the comments section from Saturday; below that post are several other posts with results of Jan 27 scans I made with HGSI. Some good looking stocks there!

LINK

Remember all comments are for education only, do your own research and don’t try to blame me for losing your grandkids inheritance.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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January 28, 2012

Brutal, Just Brutal

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Brutal, Just, Brutal

Gingrich Super Pac new 7 minute movie on

Romney and Medicare

Came out at 1:00AM EST

Click on word FRAUD above to see it

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What’s even worse for Romney is Gingrich , catches Romney in a “blatant lie” in the Tampa debate about 6 Minutes and 30 seconds into the film.

Gingrich “Did Bain have any work with the government such as Medicare and Medicaid.” Romney “We didn’t do any work with the government.”

Documentation for Film at

MittsBloodMoney.com

That’s Gingrich’s Super Pac title NOT mine

Be Afraid, be very afraid because Super Pac adds  by  members of a corrupt oligarchy and permitted by the 5 right wing Supreme Court Justices who gutted campaign finance reform by voting to allow this are buying our democracy.




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