Karzai & Petraeus

Fear Is The Mindkiller

911 was a horrible & catastrophic event that needed a response. Since then just how many US citizens in the continental USA have died from a Muslim terrorist attack? There were a handful who died from Anthrax eight years ago, and when the Muslim army guy went berserk at Fort hood a dozen died. Total – maybe 20

So how many die each year in the USA from lightning strikes? – 90 Over the course of the last eight years(90×8) that’s 720 deaths by lightning vs. @ 20 from Islamic related terrorism within the USA.

You are 97% more likely over the last eight year to die from a lightning strike that a terrorist related event within the USA in the last 8 years. Yet we spend trillions on terrorism (consider all the TV shows, editorialists, fearmongering, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, wounded care, etc etc etc. and nothing on lightning strikes.

Hell I’m far more scared of dying in a traffic accident, cancer, diabeties, a robbery or a lightning strike than I am of a Islamic terrorist incident.  So why spend trillions fighting on the other side of the world instead of spending that money on something useful like cancer research or deficit reduction?

Democrats in congress are blocking $3.9 billion in nation building aid to the corrupt Afghan government. Bravo!

Unfortunately apathetic and fearmongered Americans will do little to support those Democrats standing up to the US war machine and the Obama/Petraeus 3rd surge nation building plan. Nita Lowey is the chair of the budget committee that holding up this money. Give her a call and say - Bravo.

Fear is the Mindkiller, and we live in world where we are manipulated into believing and spending $ as if your chances of dying from an Islamic terrorist are greater than those of dying from cancer or diabeties. Wake up to reality

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Mantra for week - ” Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the ”Black Boxes” of  huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.” They make up 80% of trading and right now the huge currency markets are dictating their moves.

The Dollar War

Both side backed off in the dollar war yesterday. The green army (long stocks & short the dollar) ran out of gas after Friday’s gains. The dollar went up so stocks went down. So the red army (short stocks & long the dollar) gained a little ground and time to regroup.

The war, fought by the black boxes and currency traders is over the rising 50 day moving average/support level of the dollar.

The MO is NEUTRAL. No advantage for either side. (see below)

The dollar’s gain +0.54% (see below) is a very minor comeback for the red army that got crushed Friday. The red army its held gound and made minor gains. However, a rise of 0.54% should have translated to a larger for stocks = Neutral to Slightly Bearish

The monthly jobs numbers on Friday, and earnings season’s starting (second week in July) should draw some attention away from currency war.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -4.41 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works.= NEUTRAL
• US Dollar –  The dollar fell s yesterday +0.51% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The dollar has fallen for the last 3 weeks, but has consolidated (traded sideways) over the last 6 days as the 50 day moving average/support level moves higher. This is where the Black Boxes have focused their attention. Dollar at $85.71 directly above major support/ 50 DMA at $85.14. Monday’s rally = Bearish
• BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish) BDI is in free fall from a high@4200 to  2482 yesterday.(2501 to 2482 yesterday) This is a huge -40% drop in 6 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Now just above a major support level (@200 points lower)Long term. = Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekends

Have not yet had a chance to Update over last 2 weekend but there are NO positions held at this time.

Still watching DGP (ETF that’s double long gold) for a dip close to its 50 DMA) – Will buy.

Don’t plan any buying or shorting (ETF that short the market) until MO reaches overbought or oversold

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING