Bernanke

The Fed’s First Press Conference

This was THE EVENT and hyped in financial circles almost as much as ” the Pope on SNL”. It’s big.

The Fed set’s interest rates, makes huge loans to big banks, buys treasuries, and basically prints money (purists would say the Treasury does that) Many argue that Bernanke, like Greenspan before him, is the world’s most powerful individual

Some Reviews of Bernake’s speech links –

• Financial Times,
• Seeking Alpha,
• Reuters

Some Results

• Stocks moved higher
• Gold/silver moved much higher
• The dollar fell
• Obvious applauds for being more transparent
• No big surprises

The press conference, of course, did nothing to change hardened critics and advocates of the Fed. Bernanke is probably very happy with outcome.

Some  major points and comments.

• He stated -” QE #2 is ending June 30th.” PERIOD. Opinion - If things go badly there will be more liquidity injections (QE#3) perhaps at the longer end of the yield curve (longer term treasury bonds) to help mortgage rates.
• He compared 2008 dollar lows to todays low and said the period the dollar went up in between was just a flight to quality. Opinion – Although the Fed talks a strong dollar they would allow it to go much lower. Many ramifications here, but bullish for US stocks, and very bullish for gold silver.
• He moderately lowered GDP outlook for USA. Opinion – He’s right
• A little bit more hawkish on inflation, but stated commodity “account for pretty much all” of the increase in inflation and focused on other reasons than Fed policy is not responsible for inflation. Opinion – There are other reasons like revolutions and a growing emerging market demand creating inflation, but the falling dollar adds to this, especially abroad.

There was good, bad and ugly side of this and every speech. Some of these details will be worked out over the next few weeks.

The bottom line just for investors – It’s bullish for US stocks, gold/silver, and commodity prices

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.76%	down
NASDQ	+0.78%	up
S&P 500	+0.73%	down
Russell 2000	+0.62%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• The dollar fell again to another a three year low.
• Now a mantra - US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for US stocks, gold/silver and most commodities. in short term.
• Since November Investors411 has beat the drums for bulls because of the Fed zero interest rate policy and injection of liquidity (QE2) This continues.
• Some Reviews of Bernake’s speech links – Financial Times,  Seeking Alpha, & Reuters

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] -0.43 yesterday. Another a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to +36.71.  Getting up there but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today

• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

From yesterday -  ”the call is Bullish across the board…&…It may be that a 10% correction in silver (SLV is the ETF) is all the correction we get. ” Silver/gold exploded higher, stocks rallied and the dollar fell.  YSL #4 should continue to outperform.

Future – Anything that holds onto most of the gains yesterday is bullish today. The dollar trade has easily become the most critical factor influencing equities and Fed manipulations are sending the dollar down. SLV is a juggernaut. Congratulations to all still holding SLV or AGQ.

Since QE2 began Investors411 has been far more bullish than most investment sites

This accurate policy will continue as long as the dollar gets devalued by Fed manipulations.

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Paul’s Corner

You can read Paul’s daily remarks in the comments section of the blog. Here’s his outlook on stocks

Well well well what an interesting day. That over sold rip off of a dog SLV comes in with a 5% gain after Bernanke indicates he will continue to give away the farm to the banks. Watching the last hour or so of SLV trading  it’s sure looks like the black box traders are at the controls.

-  21% (315) of the S&P 1500 stocks are now in an over bought condition, but we  are still a wee bit away from a market peak.

- Many of the oil related stocks took a hit at the open when Conoco Phillips missed estimates because of trouble in Libya. I sold NBR at the open, they reported last evening and missed estimates for  the same reason. By late afternoon many of the oil stocks did recover, but it looks like some damage has been done.

The top group in my high demand search was the  Health-Bio/Genetic group with 10 % of the top 100 high demand stocks for April 27. Here is the list, sorted in alpha order:

Health-Bio/Genetic (10.00%, 10 securities)

• Amgen  Inc. (AMGN)
• Biogen Idec  Inc. (BIIB)
• Celgene Corporation (CELG)
• Cubist Pharmaceuticals  Inc. (CBST)
• Incyte Corporation (INCY)
• InterMune  Inc. (ITMN)
• Momenta Pharmaceuticals  Inc (MNTA)
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals  I (REGN)
• United Therapeutics Corporat (UTHR)
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

Second group  was the semis.

Semiconductor-Mfg (6.00%, 6 securities)

• Altera Corp. (ALTR)
• Atmel Corporation (ATML)
• Cypress Semiconductor Corpor (CY)
• Entropic Communications  Inc (ENTR)
• Microchip Technology  Inc. (MCHP)
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac (TSM)

ALTR is a YSL 4 member and you could have bought it last week sitting on the 50 and you would have a 13.4% gain! (SLV has had a 9.3% gain in the same time frame so don’t think you have to chase the latest fad!)

None of the “Oil” related stocks made the top 100 list so it does appear we have some rotation going on. Many of the semis appear to be raising from the dead.

All of the major indexes finished up with gain,  the color “green” is the predominate color on the various HGSI spread sheets, positive earnings reports are coming in  and Bernanke turned on the faucets again. Happy days are here again?

Disclaimer: Please see below……

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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Positions

See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

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The Winter Democracy Bloomed

The desire for self government, jobs and bread has exploded across the Arab world. In over a dozen countries people are demonstrating for basic human rights. Perhaps the biggest looser in all of this is Islamic fundamentalism and al Qaeda, because the cries of the people are not for religious fundamentalism, but for the common human dignity that we all share. Demonstrators are putting their lives on the line for democracy.

Libya and Iraq are the latest to have demonstrations. Today the NYT focuses on American reaction to Egypt, Bahrain and Iran’s demonstrations

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Shadow Banks Rule

The Chamber of Commerce and Shadow Banks were caught with their hands in the cookie jar,  just as a congressional committee was to convene to amend rules on “casino capitalism.”  How ironic it is that over a 1000 bankers were issued jail terms in the Savings and Loans crisis decades ago and NONE have over the 2008 meltdown.  That’s how powerful the shadows and their lobbyists have become.

Andrew Ross Sorkin from NYT story and MIT prof Simon Johnson. – Derivatives Industry Report Collapses.

But that’s just for openers – The Chamber of Commerce & their shadow allies are not beyond investigating the families of critics and printing false accusations. If you support Wikileaks or speak out against The Chamber, BAC or those who want to run capitalism in the shadows this could happen to you. Glenn Greenwald reports.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.34%	down
NASDQ	-0.46%	up
S&P 500	-0.32%	up
Russell 2000	-0.71%	-

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Technicals Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Nothing’s change much in overall outlook since Monday. Short term because yesterday’s moderate loss the McClellan Index is at a  more buyable level of  +6.97. But not yet near levels bulls would like. The bubble-icious stock market continues.

So today were going to focus on technical analysis. I call technical analysis looking at the pretty pictures/charts of  a stock’s price and volume and being able to make a forecast of future directions from those charts.

Stockcharts.com, the best free site on technical analysis on the web has a school/tutorial that will help you learn more about it.

Technical analysis works best when the markets, the sector and then the individual stock are in alignment or moving in the same direction.  The sum is greater than the parts, but in most cases it the individual stocks that matters most.

So here’s a list compiled by Paul R who has oodles of experience in technical analysis and uses a powerful HSGI program to augment his technical analysis skills.

Below is Your Stock List #3 and Paul’s recommendations. Most importantly use this a a learning  tool it technical analysis. He published it in the comments section of the blog a day ago, so its a bit dated and I’m sure he wants you to read his mea culpa. You can look up each chart pattern by inserting appropriate ticker symbol at Stockcharts.com. (link above) - His comments in Green and technical analysis below.

“In no way am I recommending a buy or sell of any of these stocks. These comments are for education only. (Understand?)

BIDU – getting extended, a hold and not a buy at the moment.

NFLX – getting extended, a hold and not a buy at the moment.

BEXP – went through a buy the dip correction in late January. Broken out, buy if it dips.

JNPR – leader in it’s group, broken out from a strong base, extended now, buy if it dips.

SKWS - Good chart, extended, buy the future dip.

KSU - Good chart, extended, buy the future dip.

DECK – Gone through a correction as has it’s group, buy the future dip.

PCLN - good chart, buy any dip

COH – Gone through a correction as has it’s group, buy the future dip

IMAX – basing, buy any dip if you want as long as if it’s above the 50.

SOHU – broken out, way too extended for my stomach. Not a good chart, it needs to tighten up.

IVN – basing, buy at any time at current chart position

ALV – basing along with it’s group at the moment. NOT buyable at the moment.

SAM – basing, sitting on the 50, buyable at any time

SPRD – Good chart, wee bit extended, wait until it touches the 17 dma again.

FFIV – NOT buyable at the moment, chart needs some serious work.

These observations are just that, observations. My observations are usually worthless. If you buy any of these dogs…blah blah blah. Did I mention these comments are for education only? Pay attention for crying out loud!”

An additional comment from Paul on how to Buy the Dip

Always watch the comments section for different ideas and comments on stocks, economics, trends and politics.

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Positions

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Look for Paul R‘s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

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Why All the Fireworks?

• YOUR Stock List was up +7.6% while the S&P was down -1.9% (see below)
• Enter Investors411 in Google and this site comes up #1
• Happy Rosh Hashanah/New Year

A Little Redistribution

Would a little redistribution of the wealth really be so bad? The middle class is hurting and wants to work. We need to acknowledge the crisis brought on by globalization and how its impacting American workers. (Major topic of many past Investors411) Yes, the Shadow Banking meltdown made everything worse, but again its the middle class that’s has also felt the most pain in socializing the over leveraging at shadow financial institutions.

A message to all you wealthy Americans that have profited from the decades of globalization and those who don’t want to part with a dime to help. We’re All One America. Right now that middle class is hurting. We do need to keep middle class tax cuts and perhaps even offer more. But it’s your turn to step up and help.

Today offering a modest proposal for a new top tax bracket (those making over $410,000) by Annie Lowrey and what it would mean. Lowrey doesn’t ask for the tax rate to return to what it was under Ronald Reagan, but what it was for the weathiest 1% under Bill Clinton.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.45%	up
NASDQ	+0.90%	up
S&P	+0.64%	up
Russell 2000	+0.79%	-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Volume was still below average. The NASDQ was just below average indicating a few traders/investors outside the BB/HFT community nibbled on technology and probably smaller cap stocks.

This lack of volume is just further indication of the power of the BB/HFT traders or the % of the market they control. It’s not your fathers or even YOUR market anymore.  In the past Investors411 have discussed the impact of BB/HFT on trading and will continue to do so.

More Investors411 Guidelines

• The Calendar -on top will take you to any past post of Investors411. Just click on the date and the blog for that day will appear
• Search Box – Just type in a word and if it was tagged at top of blog the last post on that person/subject will come up. Example type in Kahneman then hit search - Bada Bing up will come one of my favorite blogs on the father of behavioral economics and some other outstanding individuals
• HELP, STRATEGY, OVERVIEW & POSITIONS - are all listed at top of blog and offer an array of different information (more later)
• Comments Section - Appears to the right and sparks fly on stocks, economics, trends and politics. Click on the writers Name, Initials and you’ll get the whole post.
• Financial Charts and Blog Roll –  Too the far right are a list of  charts of some indexes & ETF’s that Investors often refers to. They are from Stockcharts.com. A excellent site for gathering free technical data. The Blog Roll contains some frequently used sources.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell -0.28% higher yesterday. Dollar in 4 week long trading range. For stocks = Neutral/Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.95% yesterday. After slight four day hesitation back in rally mode. Remember this is especially relevant (in this case bullish) to those countries that have an export surplus = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +30.84 yesterday. Clearly above zero and within 29 points of the NOT drawn in the sand line of being oversold.(+60) = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The dollar is still the big dog wagging the stock market tail. Flat consolidation pattern holding means the same for stocks. We did have a dash of bullish news for stocks as the dollar fell a bit yesterday, but until consolidation pattern holds – so will stocks.

Considering how strong the run higher was last week in points, we should have another push even higher. Volume is just not as relevent to major indexes because of the BB/HFT domination and the lack of individual investors. Till the MO gets oversold case for bulls strong.

Repeat – UUP the dollar ETF is what to focus on for stock market direction if you are an active trader.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

From Paul “With today’s strong action, “Your Stock List” is up +7.6% since Aug 3. The S&P 500 down -1.9%.” Lots more if you click o the aboved referenced link

You sent in the stock picks that make up YOUR stock List. Give yourself a round of applauds. Paul & I went over the list and did eliminate some candidates.

You can find the complete YOUR Stock List located by clicking on the POSITIONS word at top of blog and scrolling down. Also Paul R has frequent commentary on these and other market news which is especially helpful for active traders. See comments section of blog.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

The Problem is Suburbia

Geography 101

Throughout the last 100 years geography has worked for and against the USA. Today mega trends dominate the flow of what happens. Investors411 has focused on 3 megatrends for years. There are, of course more. Lets look at an overly simplistic view of US history as a geography lesson to understand the pickle where in today.

• We ended the Great Depression with the massive spending of FDR’s New Deal and World War 2
• The end result was a debt that was 30% of GDP (relativity — today its @10%)

How did we fix this huge debt problem? We relocated people into suburbia  - built massive highways, factories, shopping malls and developed greater tolerance. Yes, we had much higher taxes then. The middle class and suburbia flourished and perhaps reached its zenith in the late 70′s (see comments section of blog for amount of wealth in top 1%) The Geography here is we sprspeadead out in & built a vast suburban sprawl , worked hard, eliminated a massive deficit. This achieved a lot for many Americans.

Along comes mega trends of  globalization (jobs move abroad) and peak oil (end of cheap energy sources). Geographically, the suburban sprawl depended on cheap energy and the building of more suburbia to thrive. We did hold ourselves together for a while with innovation (computers/internet) but soon because of “scaling” these too are being developed faster and cheaper overseas.

Now. Unlike almost every other country we’re stuck in a geographical nightmare that is dependent on cheap energy and its own further suburban growth to survive.

If you’d like to see a more radical apocalyptic presentation of this kind of scenario read Minnesota economist Jim Kunstler for a while. (Thanks to AG who first showed me this site)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.01%	down
NASDQ	+0.13%	down
S&P 500	+0.01%	down
Russell 2000	+0.07%	-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Same Mantra for this week -The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the vast majority of trades.

Many thanks to Paul R for providing stock information in the comments section over the last 5 days. We are both working together on YOUR on a stock list. Many of you have sent in stocks to be considered and a few more will be added. Hopefully, we’ll be able to get this together by mid week before we both leave.

Significant Indexes-

• McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell  to +40.41 over the last few days [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. MO is back from overbought to = Neutral
• US Dollar –  The dollar  rose slightly  +0.12% yesterday [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] The dollar/stocks relationship is strong – Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. Dollar  is in a two month long fall and is approaching a major support level. The fall = Bullish
• BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also, good proxy of China.) BDI was in free fall from a high of @4200 to 1700 . This was a huge -60% drop in 8 weeks is very bearish Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a 3 year chart of BDI for context. The BDI has staged a two week rally and is up +16% rally and is at 1942 = Bullish

Reading Tea Leaves-

We’ve had what looks like a four day breather in a month long rally. The MO is back in the upper end of neutral territory. It did establish a higher high above 90 (see chart) This gives the bulls over 50 points (90-40=50) of wiggle  room to move higher. The benchmark S&P is at 1101 and major resistance is at 1131 (see chart) The dollar and the BDI have turned bullish for stocks. So another charge higher is likely.

While the possibility of a good week for stocks exists, not only will we impact resistance levels on the S&P 500, but we will also confront support levels for the dollar. The BB/HFT traders that dominate stocks pay very close attention to the larger currency markets.

Simply put and longer term - GLOBALIZATION is a reality. Jobs and GDP growth are in emerging markets. The US can remain stagnant economically and US stocks can/will move higher along with China, India, Indonesia, Viet Nam etc. There is long term danger here, but for now globalization, peak oil mega trends are back dominating and the financial meltdown (the problem has NOT been fixed)  is not taking its toll on these markets.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

The remaining 1/2 of SDS (ETF that double shorts the S&P 500) was sold at 33.17 on Friday for a +2% gain. Total gain a measly +1% on this position. Again will enter buy short ETF’s when MO gets overbought. This week will wait till/if we reach at least +80.

EWZ (Brazil ETF) - Bought 10% of portfolio position at 69.80 on Friday.

FXI – Under consideration if market does not make huge move higher today.

Any US or foreign stocks that benefits from emerging markets is back on the table.

Long Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Nassim Taleb – “BlackSwan”

Black Swan

There are many doom and gloom prognosticators out there. There are a lot of Johnny Sunshine’s too. Paul R comment’s are today’s editorial. Checkout the other excellent recent comments too. I strongly urge you to also read the 10 points in his referenced Financial Time article.

“Back on Feb 10 Barr mentioned the “Black Swan”. I caught the Wall Street Journal Report on TV last week and they interviewed Nassim Taleb author of many Black Swan articles.

A quick search of the net for “black swan” I found his recommendations for a black swan proof world. LINK

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/tenprinciples…

I really like #2.

2. No socialization of losses and privatization of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalized; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.”

Bottom Line – Nassim Talib – who was right about the 2008 meltdown wrote this article on April 7 2009.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.25%	flat
NASDQ	+1.14%	flat
S&P 500	+1.50%	flat
Russell 2000	+1.45%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Markets recovered a bit on Friday. Some of this may be options expiring.  Nothing to get excited about because as state Friday major support levels and trend lines have been broken.  This usually means the worse is yet to come.

We moved higher because markets were way oversold (See McClellan Oscillator)

Fearless Forecast Last week – Down market at beginning of week and rally at end – was right. But overall prediction of “up week” was obviously toast.

Fearless Forecast This Week - Trend lines and major support levels have been broken. I think European Central Banks like our Fed and Treasury will do whatever it takes to stabilize the Euro.  But the long term damage to their GDP is significant and impacts the world. Hard to see a market recover if GDP is falling. Systemic problems in capitalism and social welfare have to be fixed and this is going to hurt. More investors realize this and sell this week.= Down week.

Obviously expect a roller coaster ride again. Idiot Democrats and Republicans have NOT fixed the “too big to fail” or over leveraged problem that got us into this mess. About 1/3 of the Senators get it – Those that voted for Brown/Kaufman legislation.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose to -90.99 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is OVERSOLD territory. = Bullish. Repeat -Hate to say this, but once the trend broke this index has become less effective.
• US Dollar – Friday the dollar fell again to $85.36 Down a significant -0.52% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important . . Obviously European & other Central Banks are stepping up to buy the Euro.  Looks like this will stabilize the Dollar/Euro relationship at least for now This is good news but markets have failed to move higher on good news = Bearish
• VIX- The “fear” index is at 40 and back in Oct. 2008 it reached 90. We have a ways to go before we reach 2008 fear levels.

Stock markets are totally ignoring their record oversold conditions and the drop in the dollar. Major trend lines have been broken. Bad reactions to good news is a powerful warning sign that the worst is yet to come. Technically, Friday’s gains need a confirmation and trend line reestablished before going long.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

The whole positions section has been refurbished. Many thanks to one of you who wants to be anonymous who helped.

Usually most positions have stop/loss orders 5 to 7% below what they were bought for. The 12% loss in UWM was due to the fact that UWM gapped lower the next day. The huge 40+% gains in IMAX was because they wee bought months ago.

Forgot to mention Friday a 2% position in VCI.

Purchases made on Friday all have stop/sell orders on them at or @2% below the price they were bought for.  Except for 50% of IMAX. and 100% of VCI. Their stops are a bit lower.

NB – Would NOT invest now, but if you are an experienced short term trader you could nibble. – Only on huge dips. Don’t make the mistake I did and hold short term positions over weekend. Get in , make 5+% profit , sell 1/2 and let the rest ride, or get out.

Friday – we saw the Dow dip 100+ points even after the McClellan Oscillator was at a record low of -136. So the dip would have too be quite large before nibbling again.

Bottom Line – Now is not the time to think about going long but  to start to think about using SDS and similar ETF’s that short the market (2X short S&P 500) in a rally.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING