Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 19, 2012

We’re Back

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Because of your emails

Investors411 is back.

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However, instead of a daily basis

411 will  published two times a month

The focus will be the same

Stocks/economics/politics

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The comments section,

as always remains open

on a daily basis

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For Your Patience

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As many of you know this editor

and many of you spent much

of the last three months

working for the election of

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Rachel Maddow on

The results

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STOCKS

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PAUL’S CORNER

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I had the great pleasure of attending Ian Woodward’s HGSI Workshop this past October in Palos Verdes California. Lots of great review and always some new material that would as Ian suggests “knock your socks off!” and it did! Ian shares some of the finest market knowledge you can find. Ian produces a great blog and it will keep you on the right side of the market.

IAN’S BLOG

Ron Brown presented some great new searches for finding strong stocks. Ron suggests following stocks with strong consistent accumulation and he gave us the software to find the winners. Ron also gave a great presentation on trading options.  He showed us how to find proper stocks to trade options using the HGSI software. Options are new to me and the information Ron gave will be a great lesson.

Gil Morales, a long time analyst that worked for William O’Neil of Investor’s Business Daily, gave us an excellent presentation on shorting stocks. We came home with Gil’s presentation showing proper chart formations for shorting.

Dr. Jeffrey Scott, a longtime HGSI user, gave a good lesson on creating your own index of stocks to follow that will show when the market is breaking down. As a group we selected 24 strong stocks with great chart patterns. These sorts of stocks usually are fat with profits and will be the first to cash in with a collapsing market. Here is a chart of the index and it shows a break down with the market, but bounced nicely Friday. The leaders are usually the first to bounce up when the market turns up, we’ll keep an eye on this

Chart.


The following chart of Nasdaq Composite clearly shows the warning signs as we headed into this correction. A look at the chart with moving averages is all you need!

Chart

The current MO for the NYSE is -53.92, past history shows we usually bounce from this point, but there is a lot more to the down side that the MO can go. It’s probably too soon to start nibbling.

Watch the comments section if the market turns up I will start posting a


“stocks to watch list”.

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Even when Barr takes a break from posting, remember we can always post comments and questions to the latest blog post, so don’t go away mad………

Paul

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Obviously much of 411′s data  (see links at heading on top) is out of date.

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Over the Thanksgiving holiday

I’ll try to update

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There are many significant problems for stocks

including the fiscal cliff, tax selling, Europe, wars, and more

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But , as Paul points out,

our main tool

reached oversold/buy territory

last Thursday and is now

sitting just above oversold levels

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So I’m thinking about nibbling on stocks

rather than selling

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But, I sure understand being hesitant.

The main danger to bulls is unpredictable

fiscal cliff and Mideast war

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How to use McClellan Oscillator

here

(Scroll down)

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A Trade

Those of you who know how, my best advice is a put/call combination trade whose options expires in January/February or beyond. This is based on the belief that US markets will move dramatically as fiscal cliff deadline looms. (42 days) Also if there is a solution stocks will move dramatically.

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___________________

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Long Term Outlook

(3+months)

NEUTRAL.



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August 20, 2012

Dancing Badly

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

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Investors411 is still on

Summer Break

But, we have a Paul’s Corner Below

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Meanwhile,  50 million have

watched this “Dancing” Video

It brings joy to your life

and the planet a little

closer together

.

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One minute into the video

it explodes with

how people all across the world

share

joy, happiness, and dance

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Link Here

for 2008 version

or Use Photo LINK

Thanks to Jim J who found a copy without an add.

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Paul’s Corner

August 2012

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It looks like the market is finally getting ready to go again. We have sat through a correction starting back in April and have seen the Ying Yang of the market for the past few months. Unless you have an iron stomach or were a skilled intraday trader this market hasn’t been safe.

Your Stock List May 2012 has seen most of the stocks correct sharply. Another example that buy and hold isn’t a great strategy these days. So it’s time to put together another list. I recently posted a few suggestions in the comments section:

Comment link A:

Comment link B:

I spent the past few days looking at many of the stocks I stuffed into various watch lists in my HGSI database. I created a list of stocks which look interesting. The following .TXT file lists 100 stocks from my current personal watch list.

Paul’s Top 100:

The following is an Excel file of these stocks with lots of fundie and technical data. This spread sheet sorts these stocks using Ian Woodward’s “Point score”. It’s sorted on the “Raw Combo”, and this basically brings the best stocks (at the moment) to the top of the list.

Paul’s Top 100 Excel File:

Please note many aren’t buyable at the moment but are worth watching for future buy points.

So my friends, you now have a list of interesting stocks to evaluate. I need all of you to make requests/suggestions as to which stocks from this list or your own lists we might add to the next “Your Stock List”. I’m not going to glean the lists any further; it’s up to you folks to participate.

So are we up to the challenge?

Disclaimer: You buy any of the dogs listed on any of these lists, you are a fool! You lose your house, your van, or your show set up from buying these stocks, too bad!

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June 28, 2012

Bankstas At War

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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The International Banking

Cartel’s War on You

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“There’s vast criminality in Wall Street now.


It’s bribery, theft, fraud,
bid rigging, price fixing,


gambling, loan sharking.
All of these things,


it’s all organized.” - MATT TAIBBI

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Today’s Headlines

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Headline NYT Today

“Trading Losses at JPM

could exceed $9 billion

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The “Too Big to Fail”

Cartel/Oligopoly

Caught in another

Skimming operation

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Barclays

(Britain too big to fail banksta)

Fined $450 million in LIBOR

Price Fixing operation

20+ other bankstas involved.

(Of Course JPM is one)

..

Why it matters

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The importance of Libor

is hard to overstate.

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“They are used to value of hundreds of trillions of dollars of financial instruments. Or as Matt Levine puts it, they “set the rates on pretty much all the loans and swaps in the world … CFTC order mentions $350 trillion of [over-the-counter] swaps, $10 trillion of loans, and $437 trillion of CME eurodollar contracts indexed to Libor alone”. Ben Walsh

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STOCKS

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Paul’s Corner

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Last evening I had the time to join in with  the HGSI users virtual market discussions.

These are a group of investors who meet on the computer to discuss the market. Most of the members are in cash as I am and feel this market is too shaky to safely invest in.

The market was looking promising late last week but has fallen back into the choppy zone.

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Ian Woodward posted another great blog

late last evening and is a must read.

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http://www.highgrowthstock.com…

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Ian sums it up nicely

in the following chart:

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http://www.highgrowthstock.com…

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Last week we did have two Eurekas and a Kahuna, but look on the lower right of the chart at the orange bar, that’s  a Phoenix (opposite of a Eureka) and a Phoenix usually cancels the Eurekas.


http://www.highgrowthstock.com…

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Looking at the charts last evening I didn’t find much to consider buying and found many of the cha cha cha stocks had profit taking.

As Barr often reminds us there is nothing wrong with taking profits, let me suggest there is nothing wrong with missing the market bottom.

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Long Term Outlook

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CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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June 4, 2012

Money Flows & Grows

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Money Grows

When You know

How it Flows

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The European Union

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Andrea Merkel/Germany

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Andrea Merle – NEIN

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Andrea Merkel has said NEIN to any

compromises

that would allow the ECB

(European Central Bank)

to stimulate and rescue the EU, like our Fed.

See - Bernanke Hero/Villain

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George Soros

[Left Wing]

on Euro crisis

&

3 Months to save the EURO

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“You can NOT

reduce the debt burden

by shrinking the economy,

only by growing your way out of it”

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Nobel Prize Winner

Milton Friedman

[Right Wing]

LINK

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“buy long-term

government securities [today's QE]

and they can keep buying them

and providing high-powered money

until the high powered money starts

getting the economy

in an expansion.”

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Even this President

Ronald Reagan

.

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when confronted with a

minor Recession chose stimulus

He added more government jobs

.

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Why doesn’t Austerity work when

a country/World is in recession

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If you are having a tough time, you tighten your belt and spend less.

But what happens to a country where everyone tightens their belt?

Everyone spends less and the GDP goes down because no one is buying. Money stops flowing. Unemployment explodes higher and fewer are able to pay taxes.

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No matter how angry you are at

those in debt or the banksters,

that anger just clouds your mind

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The AUSTERITY Solution

to recover from a Recession

Does NOT work.

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This is happening

throughout Europe

as the bankers/banksters/Merkel

who own the debt & derivatives

on the debt demand

only austerity.

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Paul’s Corner

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You Were Warned!

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This Saturday in the comments section, I suggested y’all review Ron Brown’s Weekend Report. It’s an excellent review of the current market and Ron gave examples of simple chart actions that you should review and understand a head and shoulder top and the bear flag.

Ron’s Weekend Market Report:

Ron explained the head and shoulder chart formation and he shows the breakdown of the neck line on May 4, which was a nasty day in the market.

So, what does one bad day have to do with the value of my portfolio? Barr always suggests we buy the dip!

As we look back now, that break down through the neck line was a good warning and I’ll wager my 1 share of FB, the big boys were unloading stock from that point on. If you observe and understand a simple chart formation such as the head and shoulders top, next time you see one you might start protecting your portfolio!

After watching Ron’s movie, I took a look back at that May 4 date using my EdgeRater program to see what sort of warning shot we received.

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http://people.delphiforums.com/SNOTZALOT/may4kahunaresized.gif

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The top circled line in the chart shows how the various indexes, S&P 500, NYSE, Dow 30, etc. moved down roughly 30% down through their Bollinger Bands in one day, we had a Kahuna!.  My good friend Ian Woodward warns that when you have a Kahuna with a 3 bucket down day (down 30%) sit up and take notice! A -30% move down in the Bollinger Band is serious!

From Ian’s last blog:

Kahuna (Little and Big) The Kahuna indicator measures volatility and momentum by looking at the one-day change in %B. The Big Kahuna is a 1-day change in %B of plus/minus 0.40. A Little Kahuna is a 1-day change in %B of plus/minus 0.24. Big Kahunas are signs of strong momentum (either up or down) and work well with the Eureka signal to identify tops and bottoms.

In the comments section from May 7, I suggested a review of Ian’s blog from the evening before where he discussed in detail the previous Friday’s 30% decline in the indexes position in their Bollinger Bands. Please review this blog!


Ian’s May 7 Blog Link:

So, we had a major shot across the bow May 4 and what do we see this past Friday? Another red Kahuna! This one was not quite as strong as the May 4 Kahuna, but it’s still a major move not to be ignored.  As Ron suggests in his Weekend Report, this past Friday’s down volume wasn’t large enough to be considered a “bottom” in the market. (Good grief!)

So my friends we were warned a month ago, just by looking at the charts, gloom and doom were knocking at the door. The charts probably indicate we haven’t hit bottom, are you protecting your grandkids inheritance or have you purchased another bottle of Tums?

Breaking news, added Sunday evening, as one would expect, Ian spent Sunday writing a great blog discussing the state of the market and what to watch for. It’s a must read!

The rest is up to you depending on your stomach:  Foxhole, Short, Dabble, but wait for the QUALITY of the Bounce if you are already out, using these concepts to stay on the right side of the Market.  Don’t forget we need Eurekas and Kahunas to the upside. No excuse now after my last blog note of a Glossary of Terms used.

Ian’s Blog Sunday June  3:

Disclaimer, these comments were written Sunday morning and are intended for education only. As we all know, by the open Monday morning all bets and suggestions are off!

Tums?

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Stock markets and Economies

are more

globalized  and interconnected

than ever

.

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The World’s Largest Economic Block

- The European Union –

is leading worldwide stocks lower.

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  • 411 uses the yield of the 10 year Spanish bond as a leading indicator of market direction – Our canary in a Coal mine. – Bond yield up = stocks down
  • On 3/2 Spanish bond hits a low of 4.87%, in mid April it tries to hold its 6.0% resistance level and in Early May breaks up through the 6.0% resistance. (see chart Below)
  • All major markets, that are interconnected through trading and especially banking, are fixated on Europe’s slow meltdown

No changes in LTO

till Spanish bonds close

below at 6.25%.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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May 22, 2012

Two Destructive Words

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

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The two most

DESTRUCTIVE words to

the American economy

&

The world’s financial system

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“Free Markets”

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“Free Market Banksters

2nd from left

Cartel member from

JMP – Jamie Diamond

.

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Free Market Bankster JPM

after announcing a hidden

$2 billion dollar error,

yesterday announced cancelation of

its $15 billion

stock buyback program


Total  7 day JMP

meltdown - 22%

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Remember the last

“Free Market” Financial

collapse in 2008?

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8 million Jobs lost

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_______

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JPM is just another

Warning

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____________

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Demand and fight for

transparency,

equal access,

& accountability

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Cartels, bankters, & the plutocrats

should play by the same rules

we do

.

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Bring back the sunlight

to financial markets

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  • No freedom to hide in shadows
  • No freedom to have hidden trades
  • No freedom to have opaque markets
  • No freedom to over leverage our money

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Postscript – See yesterday’s 411 for more and be sure to catch the latest editorial from…

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Yankee Bob - LINK Here

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STOCKS

openingimage

OMG Oversold bounce

OMG Oversold Bounce

(photo from ETF Digest)

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PAUL’S CORNER

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..

Yes we had a nice over sold pop yesterday; it was good and probably a good day to unload some excess inventory or losses.  Your Stock List May 2012 has been thoroughly trashed along with the market. I will post the latest performance chart in the comments section this morning.

Until we see a nice convincing higher low in the averages this market ain’t safe to play in.

Personally I’m in cash (except for my 1 share of FB I bought Friday) and have been for weeks now and it doesn’t look like I have missed too much except some healthy losses.  Years ago I would have tried to dodge and weave with every move of the market and I usually lost.  Perhaps it’s  years of wisdom as I now tend to move aside when the market suggests,  perhaps it’s finally listening to my favorite market guru Ian Woodward and his partner in crime Ron Brown (both from HGSI) and of course Barr and his excellent market analysis.

Ian’s blog link:

Ron’s Weekend Market Report Videos Link

If you are serious about your investing, in addition to listening to Barr, taking the time to read Ian’s Blog and watching Ron’s videos will reward you nicely.

One of the successful HGSI software users is Dr. Jeffrey Scott. Jeffrey usually finds the time every month to hold an online webinar where he looks at the market and usually comes up with some great stocks to follow regardless of market conditions. He started this on his own, but now his free to watch webinars are hosted by HGSI. This evening Jeff will hold a webinar from 8 to 9:30 PM ET.

Jeff’s Webinar Link:

Oh, one last thought, until we see a nice convincing higher low in the averages this market ain’t safe to play in.

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No changes in LTO until JPM stops falling and starts to recover & Italian 10 year bond yield starts to fall again back near 6.00%

NBBIG fall in Italian bonds this AM (8:00 AM EDT) down to 6.09%.

LTO back to NEUTRAL if /when we close below 6.05%

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Clear Bullish sign

and a chance for short term traders

who can handle high risk

to go long – but watch the bond rate.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.





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February 8, 2012

Pinkwashing

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Pinkwashing

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By Yankee Bob

Greenwashing is the term given to corporations that do some window dressing to look green  for PR purposes while they go on raping and pillaging the planet. This scandal has uncovered that Koman does the same only in the health field. Pinkwashing.

Koman channels the health discussion over Breast Cancer into politically acceptable areas and leaves the areas the corporations don’t want us to go to alone. It makes people feel like they have a place to put their energy, a walk, and their money, into prevention.
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It’s window dressing.

Koman channels money, or patients into medical companies that benefit from it without raising the ugly head of how we all need healthcare coverage, or what is causing the cancer?
.
Big deal if you give someone a mammogram and they find they have Breast cancer. Then what?
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Koman was against single payer health plan. So now you know you have breast cancer and you have
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NO coverage
Is that fighting for you?
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Also they ignore the dialog of where the cancer comes from. Discussing that in a robust way would upset the corporate apple cart.
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The chemicals allowed in our foods, the chemicals put in the environment. The suspect foods we eat. That is not under attack from Koman.
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Koman is safe for the insurance, health, oil and chemical industries. It’s even a way for them to look good with some pink money.
.
It’s good for business
but it doesn’t do much to defeat breast cancer.
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Republicans

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“Mittastrophy”

(Huffington Post Headline)


In a major upset, Republican candidate Rick Santorum won major victories in three midwestern state primaries/caucuses. Absolutely toasting Romney and crushing Gingrich and Paul.

What’s so mind blowing about Santorum’s trifecta is he has raised only $2.2 million to Romney’s $57 million.

Analysis from Politico

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Strategy/Trends

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  • The monetary, stock and economic trend in Europe is positive. Just like in the USA investors/traders believe the European Central Bank has their back. Bond prices of the most significant trouble country (Italy) have been driven down.
  • We know in the USA the Fed will do whatever it takes. Also,  it seems that there is a slight economic recovery under way in beaten up sectors, tech and small cap stocks.
  • Low volume rallies (like this one) have pushed stocks higher since our Fed introduced quantitative easing a couple years back. It is working again.
  • Primary obstacles to success are politics within the USA and potential problems with Iran.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +29.60 . 50DMA at +18.19 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Plenty of wiggle room for stocks to go up or down.  Short term = NEUTRAL
  • Investors411 has a position in XHB (up 5.27%) This like most of the beaten down sectors that have rallied is over extended in the short term. It would be very heathy for these over extended sectors if  the rallied cooled down for a while.
  • Combination Option Trades based on an earnings event – IR is under consideration this week. Reports 7:00 AM EST this AM. While this is NOT an official Investors411 trade – good luck to those of you in it.
  • Long term Combination Options Trades considerations WLT (Takeover rumors) MCP (can move a lot based on rumors and news) and USO (based on potential Iran problems and other factors)

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Paul’s Corner

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The End of Wall Street As They Knew It

An interesting article published in the New Yorker explaining the evil mix of Wall Street and your friendly banks.

On Wall Street, the misery index is as high as it’s been since brokers were on window ledges back in 1929. But sentiments like that, accompanied by a full orchestra of the world’s tiniest violins, are only part of the conversation in Wall Street offices and trading desks. Along with the complaint is something that might be called soul-searching—which is, in itself, a surprising development. Since the crash, and especially since the occupation of Zuccotti Park last September (which does appear to have rattled a lot of nerves), there has been a growing recognition on Wall Street that the system that had provided those million-dollar bonuses was built on a highly unstable foundation.

It’s a long read but if you are serious about learning about this mess it’s a must read.

LINK:

Ian Woodward from HGSI gave a great presentation today on the HGSI/EdgeRater video course. He spent close to an hour explaining his new proprietary Woody Indicator which gives extremely fast and accurate market timing signals.

It’s not too late to register and watch all of the videos.

REGISTRATION:

High Demand Stocks

My favorite HGSI search showed the Application Software group 2nd in the search with the following charts showing the action. ADSK, BSFT, CDNS, CTXS, PMTC, SAP, SWI

Your Stock List Changes

SIMO is being removed from Traders and being placed in Watchers due to chart action after its earnings report. See yesterday’s comment section for observations of SIMO’s chart action during the day. Extreme caution is suggested if you care to trade SIMO at the moment.

SWI a former YSL member Solar Winds (It ain’t a solar company) being added the Watchers due to recent chart action after their recent earnings report. It also made the high demand search.

Oh before I close, I hope some of you folks own a few shares of TSCO!

As always please make your own trading decisions. All comments above are based on chart action and if you think I can read the charts, I have a bridge I can get you a great deal on.!

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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February 2, 2012

The Million Dollar Club

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Whose Buying Democracy?



The Million Dollar

Super Pac Club

.

At some point in time $1,000,000 or even the Adelson’s (now) S11,,000,000 million will seem like chump change to give to a Super Pack.

By then our democracy will be like Russia’s oligarchy or  the one Party state of China.

.


The Oligarchs contributing to Super PAC’s


Romney’s $1,000,000 Super Pac Club

  • Steven Lund - Formed a company just to contribute then company vanishes.
  • Edward Corner – VP Bain – Had to be outed.
  • Jeremy BlickenstaffLund’s Son in Law
  • Julian Robertson – Hedge Fund Owner/Manager
  • Paul Singer – Hedge Fund Owner/Manager
  • Robert Mercer – Hedge Fund Owner/Manager
  • John Paulson – Hedge Find Owner/Manager

Every one for these individuals, because they are associated with/runs a venture capitalist or hedge fund pay the same tax Romney did for all his years at Bain

15% or less – You suckers pay more.

How many Swiss and Caymen Island Bank account’s here?

Obama – $2,000,000 Super Pac Club

  • Jeffery Katzenberg - Dreamworks

What’s missing ?

and More Important

(I’m just one person up against a deadline)

  • Bundlers for Unions and Companies that amass millions
  • The massive Pack of donors who give more than legal $2,500 to a campaign, but less than a $1,000,000
  • The donors who give to both sides
  • The oligarchs who are smart enough to wait till the last quarter to give so that their names won’t be made public till after the election.

The Bottom Line

Below

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Short Term Outlook

  • “Golden Cross” -  This term has a lot of significance especially for long tome technical analysts and old school investors. It’s when the 50 Day Moving Average of price crosses the 200 DMA. That happened yesterday = Bullish
  • Repeat from Monday -” A lot of 2012 has to do with politics. Do we keep the Bernanke/Obama team that has almost doubled the S&P 500 and led to a slow, but steady economic recovery in place or do politics dramatically alter this?”
  • Repeat – Long term - As long as interest rates stay low, and there is liquidity without inflation – investment money seeking higher returns will be forced into stocks and bonds. This dynamic has not changed under Bernanke/Obama even though other significant sectors of the world have taken some big hits (Europe & Japan) or are slowly pulling back – China.

The POSITIONS page does not yet reflect the 2012 Outlook.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +45.61 . 50DMA at +8.96 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)  Short term = neutral/BEARISH
  • The MO can be read like any chart (see  above link) This is the 6th time in 6 weeks the MO has approached +60. It failed the other 5 times. That’s one very very strong resistance level.
  • Mantra - Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • Combination Option Trades – Congratulations to two of you who made $ on an AMZN combination options trade.  Not a lot, but a 10 to 25% profit. NFLX , we all made out on this one last quarter, reported last night. The option prices were too high to risk this trade, but it sure looks like it may have worked again.

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Paul’s Corner

.

Your Stock List 2012 Changes and Updates

KLAC – being added to Your Stock List.

KLA-Tencor Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries.

Chart Comments

AKRX – broken out of a 2 month base, hit 52 week high

BKI – fell after earnings report, bounced off of the 50 dma, watch

CATM – broken down though the 50 dma, all HGSI indicators red, ready to be removed from YSL, however reports after the close this evening Feb 2, est 0.36, we will wait for the report and watch the chart before and final decision to remove.

CMG – riding up the 9 dma, a true warrior! I love the chart but not the food!

DLTR – riding up the 17 dma

ENB – all indicators green, recently bounced off the 50, shows strength

FAST – riding up the 17

FTK – in a correction, never broke the 50, watch!

IBM – top of current trading range

KLAC - riding up the 9 dma

KOG - chart trending down with the oil stocks, sitting on the 50

LEN – basing on the 17

MA – correcting, buyable if it crosses up through the 50

MNST – has been a monster of a stock, pulling back from it’s recent high, in a dip, buyable as per our buy the dip suggestions, link below

RYL – Basing on the 17

SIMO – basing and in a dip, buyable as per our buy the dip suggestions, link below

TSCO - reported after the close Wednesday. Came in at 0.96 vs est of 0.91. Revenues reported lower than expected. Trading down about -1.5% after hours. Support is at the 17 dam 78.40. If it breaks, the next support is the 50 dma which is about 74.

Note: good stocks ride up the 50, great stocks ride up the 17, warriors ride up the 9, stocks in an exhaustion run ride up the 4!

Buy the dip suggestions

LINK

Many of these stocks are about to report earnings, have you checked the dates?

Disclaimer – All chart comments are for education only, please do your own research and make your own decisions. Kindly don’t blame me or Barr if you buy a dog and lose your life savings.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

The benchmark S&P 500 is at 1324. The 50 day moving average is at 1260 and rising. We would have to come close to the 50 DMA before a significant change  in Long Term Outlook is considered.

We are up against strong technical resistance. But ultimately its fundamentals that will determine market direction. What Central Banks (US & Europe) do and will the payroll tax cut be continued, are the foreseeable  major factors determining market direction.

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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January 30, 2012

Buying Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Buying Democracy

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How money

Wins Campaigns and  Destroys Democracy

Part 2

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What if Sheldon Adelson (8th richest man in USA and pictured above) decides to give Newt Gingrich’s Super Pac more than the $10,000,000 he already has? After all $10 million is not even close to one day’s profits from his giant gambling empire.

What if Adelson gives $100,000 million?

What if a Saudi Prince through an American corporation he own/controls/influences  decides to give a $100,000 million?

What if George Soros (7th richest in the USA) decides to give Obama $100,000 million?

Just because Adelson’s chosen to be open about his contribution, doesn’t mean the others have to be open about their contribution.

Money sure helps win elections. (There are some other infuencing factors)

  • Gingrich & Romney spend the same amount of  money in S. Carolina and Gingrich wins.
  • Romney spends the 5 times what Gingrich does in Florida and Romney wins

Where is the Outrage in the media?

There is almost none.

Why?

Because both Democrats and Republicans are out getting all  wealthy oligarch Super Pac money they can.

Its all legal.

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Here’s a photo of one leader who has consolidated power in a supposed democracy with the help of his own wealthy oligarchy. Now, Even billionaires who opposed him are in Siberian jails.

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Russia’s Vladimire Putin with a former friend

Think this will never happen in the USA?

Did you ever think there would be a legal $10,000,000 campaign contribution to influence a presidential campaign by a Vegas casino owner in the USA and no one cares?

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Short Term Outlook

  • Technicals (Just a reminder of how to evaluate markets/sectors/stocks) Technical analysis identifies the trend by looking at charts of how stocks move. Simplest form a stock price goes up = bullish trend. Down = bearish trend.
  • Chart patterns get a bit more complicated than simply up = bullish and down = bearish, but all in all they act as signposts, or traffic lights on a (price level) road. The worst signs are U turn and Detour.
  • Fundaments- These are the drivers of stocks –  The earnings reports, the jobs number, GDP, money supply and a host of other significant factors.
  • Fundaments are the drivers and the car that move along the road. One good or bad earning report can shatter any sign or light on the technical road.

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  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO)was basically flat at +46.98(for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)  = NEUTRAL/bearish
  • Repeat from Friday – “The MO can be read like any chart (see  above link) – Three times in January the MO has tried to break out above the 55 to 60 range and failed. Yet is has stayed in a very tight range between 30 and 60. If this range/trend breaks  on the top side bulls win and on the bottom bears win. The fact that the trend is from + 30 to + 60 instead of minus is BULLISH
  • DAX (Germany)  down 1.2%  at 9AM EST. Not good for US markets. Big European Meeting this week. But they are all big meetings. Just lie all 19 Republican debates – each is hyped and hyped
  • Two more considerations for Option combinations. BIDU (Monday earnings) A short term trade.MCP as a possible long option term combination trade.
  • Reading Tea Leaves – It seems the majority of market tea leaf readers I look at are predicting some kind of pull back this week – It would be healthy if markets had a minor consolidation. Earnings season is winding down so outside economic news will start to dominate.
  • The Key to Watch for – Any signs of Central Banks manipulating stocks or bonds. Rumors of a QE #3 abound. (google – news QE 3)

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Paul’s Corner

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Home Builders Fact or Fiction?

This Saturday I posted the following home building discussion into the comments section. I am reposting it here in case you missed it.

Key Report for Home Builders ETF

LINK

Check the video in the report!

Fact or Fiction?

Now before any of you suggest I should have considered this sort of information before adding several home builders to Your Stock List, keep in mind I read the charts, watch the Industry Groups , etc., and trade accordingly.

Six weeks ago or so I posted a list of home builders to check out. Several had nice charts and a very nice price climb since that post. Did any of you profit from that post? URI was on that list and you would have made a bundle!

LINK

Back in October in the comments section I made a post listing home building stocks that were found in my favorite HGSI High Demand Search. I wish I had paid attention to that signal HGSI handed out!

RYL posted earnings Friday and its share price dropped like a rock at the open to 16.96 and almost immediately climbed to 19 and closed for the day at 18.41. I didn’t listen to the conference call but investors must have liked what they heard.

Several other builders (LEN, DHI) have reported good earnings, beat estimates etc. So do we ignore the charts or trade based on one of Cramer’s videos? That video almost makes you scared to never buy a home builder again. Is the economy that bad? I donno, manufacturing factories are opening nicely in my area, they are hiring again.

Semiconductors

Oh, the semis are moving. Your Stock List and your participation is appreciated. Post them in the comments section so we all can discuss them or email them to Barr.

LINK

HGSI Scans

Here is the link to my post in the comments section from Saturday; below that post are several other posts with results of Jan 27 scans I made with HGSI. Some good looking stocks there!

LINK

Remember all comments are for education only, do your own research and don’t try to blame me for losing your grandkids inheritance.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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January 26, 2012

Who Owns Big Government?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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Real American

Business Leaders
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Bill Gates
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Nobody’s perfect, but let’s compare.

  • Warren Buffett – Why should I have a lower tax rate than my secretary”
  • Steve Jobs -  Fox News is - “An incredibly distructive Force”

Remember the giant corporations and the weathy have  an army of lobbyists and lawyers in Washington. This is what they pushed for

  • 1998 – Tore apart banking regulations like allowing  banks to merge with insurance companies
  • 2004 – SEC allows bank over leveraging to grow from 12 to 1 to 40 to 1
  • 2008/09 – Financial meltdown. Housing crisis, Bush/Paulson  bailout of too big to fail banks. -9% GDP & stocks tank

Nothing we can do becuse its all legal They privatize gains. We taxpayers subsidize the losses

  • Romney (uber wealthy) paid 13.9% rate on his 2010 taxes while most working American pay far more.
  • Romney’s company Bain, like hedge funds and other investment firms, pay only 15% on their profits while small business pay a much higher tax rate.
  • Romney, sets up $100 millon dollar tax funds for all his sons without paying taxes. We can’t.
  • Gingrich, like all politicians, can exit politics and make millions lobbying for government agencies (Fannie & Freddie)

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ITS LEGAL, ITS LEGAL, ITS LEGAL

Because they own our government.


Elizabeth Warren -

In her passionate plea to fight for the working middle class -


“Washington now works for those who can hire an army of lobbyists and an army of lawyers … 30 largest companies pay more for lobbyists than they do taxes...Who really pays for that?…And the answer is America’s middle class. They’re the ones left to pick up the pieces, to pay the taxes, to keep the country running.”

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He’s Back
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Yankee Bob
on
Taxes and Transparency
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Vampire Mitt is calling on Gingrich to release the entire contract between Newt and Fannie Mae. He isn’t satisfied with the little dump that Newt did on it. He wants it all!

What a schmoe. He wants to see all of Newt’s contract??!! OK,Mitt let’s see all of your tax returns from your years at Bain. How can you argue Newt must come clean and then say one year of your tax returns is good enough? It isn’t and Mitt is pretty much asking for trouble here

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Did you see that Sarkozy is pushing for a financial tax? .01-to .1% on equity trades and the collected money to be aimed at helping the poor.

Think of how much money would go in the Treasury if sales tax were applied to all equity trades even at a modest .01 %. why not extend it to bonds, currency, loans and all. Why do I have to pay a  6% sales tax on a book,a calender, a stove but Mitt can buy a company and doesn’t have to pay on that?

Would Wall Street cease to trade if they had to pay a small tax on their trades? The babies howell about 15% capital gains. Why not a sales tax on trades or leveraged buyouts?

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Short Term Outlook


  • Getting out of the rest of EUO. The ETF that double short the Euro. As announced in the comments section a week or so ago I sold some then. Now the rest. Reasoning –  The bond rates for Italy and Spain are out of danger zone and more talks of concessions from Germany, ECB & IMF.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +57.59. 50DMA at +5.00 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Stocks are slightly overbought, but still have some wiggle room to go higher = NEUTRAL/BEARISH
  • From yesterday - Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • DAX (Germany) up this AM 1.44% at 8:15 AM EST. Put Rally Caps on.
  • NFLX – Wouda Shouda Couda – It sure looks like NFLX is going to be a huge money maker combination option trade this AM after a positive eanings surprise. I did not pull the trigger for the Investors411 portfilio. My Bad, especially becuse I hyped this Options combination trade.

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Paul’s Corner

As many of you know I use High Growth Stock Investors (HGSI) software in my daily stock analysis. I also use a product known as EdgeRater which I use specifically for market analysis and timing.

Chris White the CEO of EdgeRater is giving a free training course for EdgeRater and is incorporating HGSI. Ian Woodward from HGSI will be presenting his new proprietary “Woody Indicator”. This new indicator gives market turning signals several days before any other indicator.

This will be an online video presentation which you can watch at your leisure. You will have free trial use of both the EdgeRater and HGSI software.

Details:

This free course will be delivered in a special online classroom by a progression of videos rather than webinar and so you can consume them in your own time. It’s a new format that I’m trying out and you will get a link to the classroom after you register for the course there’s a welcome message in there right now which will tell you more about the format.

Register Here: LINK

Event Details:

EdgeRater v5 has just been released and has several new updates to work even smarter with HGSIv8. I will be running a free online training course starting this Friday where you can find out how these products work together to provide a dynamic duo of trading tools.

The training will be run over the course of 2 weeks and all registrants will have access to trial versions of both EdgeRater v5 and HGSI v8 if needed. The training will start from the ground up so no prior knowledge of either of these programs is required but it is open to everybody and there are some exciting new findings that will be revealed that will help you stay on the right side of the market.

So if you have ever been interested in finding out how to scan the market for trading candidates and discovering historical performance of trading strategies then you should join me in this unique course starting on Friday.

Register Here: http://www.edgerater.com/events/erhgsi.aspx

Chris White

CEO, EdgeRater LLC

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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January 25, 2012

State of the Union

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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SOTU

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George “Been Forgotten” Bush went over the top with his “your either with us or against us” proclamation.  A line he later regretted.

Remember, those of us who opposed the Iraq war were hated as un American and not Patriotic. Emotions ran high because of the terrible 911 tragedy, but now some healing  has occurred over a war that was a tragic mistake.


The heart of Obama’s speech

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We don’t begrudge financial success in this country. We admire it. When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich. It’s because they understand that when I get tax breaks I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference – like a senior on a fixed income; or a student trying to get through school; or a family trying to make ends meet. That’s not right. Americans know it’s not right.

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Why are Romney’s Poll numbers Dropping?

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Romney provides the contrast to Obama SOTU and makes Bush’s “you’re either with us or against us”  milquetoast.

The following 20 second video is a perfect example of raging extremism. The kind of shouted hatred that twists the minds of so many of our fellow Americans into blind fear mongered emotionalist.  Romney -

“I’m going to Stuff it Down Obama’s Throat”

Click on photo for 20 second video

As far as timing goes Obama caught a huge break that his SOTU address came directly after Romney released just his 2012 tax returns (13.9% tax rate) that have opened a massive amount of new questions. (future editorials)

More on SOTU here and NYT here


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

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Short Term Outlook

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  • Apple had a grand slam earnings report and was up 8% in after hours trading. So were Asian markets
  • Repeat from Last Week - ”We have confirmed a higher high on the benchmark index — the S&P 500 (link to chart of S&P near top right of blog). This is a higher high on the charts and longer term its bullish.”
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell  to +41.48. 50DMA at +3.98 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Stocks are slightly overbought, but overallNEUTRAL
  • From Last week – “We are in a low volume rally” In Paul’s Corner he points out the decrease in volume over the last five days. There have been lots of technicians who are calling for a pull back here. I tend to see 1350 1370 as the target on the S&P 500 before a significant retreat. (S&P now at 1314)
  • Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • DAX (Germany) down this AM 0.67% at 7:00 AM EST. Italian bond’s two week long yield fall puts it well out of the 7% danger zone. But yields rose yesterday and this AM to  +6.23%. The Spanish and Italian bond reversal shows some economic stability returning to two of Europe’s largest economies and is bullish
  • NFLX reports earnings after the bell. Watch comments section for details on possible combination Option Trade.

Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Italian 10 year bond

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2012 Stock Forecast

The Raw Data

..

The Bad

The OVERVIEW Section of the blog contains a detailed outline of the systemic problems. Even better at the end there are 11 different sources that go over the problems and solutions  facing our country and the world.

  • Too Big to Fail Shadow Banks remain a significant problem. Jon Huntsman was the only candidate with a significant viable solution. Current solutions that rely on Dodd Frank regulators are weak unless laws are further change and enforcement dramatically enhanced.  The oligarchy privatizes gains and rest of us socialize their losses.
  • Globalization continues to benefit emerging markets that supply cheap labor and an oligarchy of wealthy Americans who rake in profits. Its devastating to American workers who see the jobs go abroad and profits to wealthy Americans.
  • Apple Computer is the best example of this. Apple employes 43,000 workers in the USA and contracts 700,000 abroad. Giant American companies have loyalty to profits and not to Americans.
  • Our government is simply overwhelmed by corporate lobbyist and money. For more Robert Reich

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Paul’s Corner


Your Stock List 2012 Additions

and Box 7 Stocks

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There are signs of a short term stalling in the market. The market finished flat Tuesday with declining volume, advancers vs. decliners were virtually even all day but finished slightly up, 1619 Advancers vs.  1376 decliners.  The following chart shows how volume has been declining for the past 5 days.

LINK:

There are no signs the world is coming to an end, but a slight pause to refresh is probably in the cards. The home builders took off this morning and most had a good day.

The following stocks have been added to Your Stock List 2012

RYL – The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilders and a mortgage-finance company in the United States. Its operations in homebuilding process range from design, construction, and sale to mortgage origination, title insurance, escrow, and insurance services to its homebuyers. The company offers completed homes; single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and mid-rise buildings, as well as sells lands and lots. It builds homes for entry-level buyers, as well as for first and second-time move-up buyers. RYL reports tonight after the market close, average estimates are 0.06.

LEN – Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding, financial services, and real estate businesses in the United States. Its homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes; and the purchase, development, and sale of residential land. The company’s financial services comprise mortgage financing, title insurance, and closing services for the buyers of homes and others. Its real estate activities include investments in distressed real estate assets.

FAST – Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wholesaler and retailer of industrial and construction supplies. It offers fastener product line under two categories, which include threaded fasteners, such as bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and building projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines and structures; and miscellaneous supplies, including paints, various pins and machinery keys, concrete anchors, batteries, sealants, metal framing systems, wire rope, strut, private-label stud anchors, rivets, and related accessories.

Dave Steckler posted a great blog last evening discussing Home Building and the ITB ETF.

LINK:

In Paul’s Corner this Monday we discussed Box 7 stocks.  The following chart shows the current Box 7 stocks as selected by HGSI criteria.

Keep in mind these are stocks that should be considered turn around stocks. They aren’t guaranteed to make you dime, in fact quite a few Box 7’s perform  really bad, so it’s up to you to carefully pick. We won’t be following these stocks on any sort of basis but will post results from time to time.

CHART:

Disclaimer, stocks listed are for education only, no buy or sell suggestions are made.  At the time of posting I may own any stock on these lists.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
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