Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 15, 2012

Recession/Deficit Solutions

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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The Greatest Economists of the 20th Century

Agreed that you Stimulate Your way Out of a

Recession

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Solutions to The Deficit

Stimulus or Austerity

(Part 1)

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The  Outstanding Success of

The Obama Stimulus

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Why Stimulus Works

&

Austerity Doesn’t

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The Obama Stimulus cost $787 billion.

Our national debt is @ $15 trillion.

A 5.2% one time addition to our debt.

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Under Obama & his Stimulus

Job growth went from -800,000 to +300,000

GDP went from -8.9% to +3.9%. = +12.8%

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Millions of jobs

created millions of taxpayers

& the GDP expanded.

Taxes paid by those with jobs

REDUCE the deficit

year after year after year…

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Everything was working until

*The Stimulus ran out

*The Austerity/Banksta Republicans

won the House of Representatives

&

*Obama, himself, put more focus on

austerity instead of stimulus

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Republican blocked virtually every

stimulus/jobs growth plan.

&

Had to be dragged kicking and screaming

for even a payroll tax cut

.

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Let’s see what happens to

the deficit

when Banksta/austerity

gain even more control.

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Examples – Austerity as a Solution

The European countries in economic trouble.

Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, & Spain

.’

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Ireland’s “free market” economy was

the goal of every Banksta in America.

The Baking Industry had “captured government”

Regulators were no where to be found.

Then Something Hit the Fan

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Ireland was the first country to impose

The Austerity Solution

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The Deficit

Exploded Higher

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Ireland Government Debt To GDP

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Ireland’s unemployment rate exploded

from 4.6% in 2008 to 14.3% today

..

IRELAND with Austerity

A 311% INCREASE in Unemployment

A 433% INCREASE in Debt to GDP

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In Hard Economic Times

Austerity = More Debt

..

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More Examples

The Other 4 Troubled European Countries

who have adopted the austerity solution.

All have

Debt to GDP ratios that are still exploding higher

All  have unemployment still exploding higher

For data on these countries see this LINK

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Next Blog – Common Sense works, Regulated Banking works, When Austerity works, Those plutocrats that don’t give a damn, but say they do – More Solutions.

FINIS


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November 4, 2011

Privatize Gains, Socialize Risk

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

See New Photo/Stories of the 99% Each Day at


LINK


Americans rarely think about another video media out there except the  one owned by our corporate oligarchy.

The other 97% of the world sees something very different. Here one of those OWS videos from Al Jazeera

Occupy Wall Street, Occupy The World


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A Keeper

Banksta’s are trying to rewrite history and absolve themselves of the 2008 meltdown. True in one sense we all share reponsibility but Banksta’s top the list. Its the banksters lobby that moves politicians to change laws cutting regulations and regulators.

LINK


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Whose To Blame

Bankstas

Certainly, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain share some of the responsibility for the European sovereign Debt Crisis.

What about all those bakstas and their friends who bought the sovereign debt/bonds of these countries

These bankstas are NOT naive simpletons who had no idea of what they were buying.

Banksters bought the debt because they thought the profits could be privatized and the risk socialized.

They bundled the sovereign debt and took insurance on the opaque unregulated Credit Default Swaps/Derivates market. This further leveraged the debt – just like what happened to mortgages in 2008. It all blows up.

Fool me once shame on you, Fool me twice shame on me

How YOU will help pay for Europe’s debt or more socialized risk on Monday


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STOCKS


Same Question

Will The Baby Bear Market Hang On?

Checkout the link to the S&P 500 chart on right side of the blog. We had a 5% meltdown that gave us a  bear cub (20% fall is the usual signal for a bear market) But, the last two days we have taken back almost 2/3 of those losses. So the cub may vanish by Monday

The major monthly jobs report comes out today and its always a short term market mover. Results below

Positive surprise – Rate down to 9.0 – past months higher. Past month revised higher. Oct private sector jobs +114,000 Not recession numbers and a moderate surprise. Good numbers for economy.

Should not impact stocks significantly. “A companies stock goes up often when they cut jobs and down when they add them”. – Steve Leseman CNBC.


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Reading The Tea Leaves


  • Our secondary indicator, the Put Call Ratio fell to 1.07. Its 50DMA which is at 1.15 = NEUTRAL
  • For more on MO & PCR see POSITION Section of blog (scroll down)

Technical observations on MO & PCP –

  • After using the PCP for several months the MO is clearly more accurate. Investor411 may drop the PCR. We’ll give it a couple weeks.
  • The 50 Day Moving Average of both Indexes is a better baseline to use than MO’s 0.00% and the PCP’s 1.00
  • A rising MO 50DMA , what we have now, usually correlates with a bull run. The relatively rapid rise in the MO’s 50DMA (below 0 to +25) is almost always associated with a longer rally

Technicals are now NEUTRAL. Just a hint of bearish sentiment on the MO.

Short Term Prediction Still Holds - So, at least for now, that baby bear is in trouble.


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Positions

SPY -  stop/loss order at  moved up to 1224. We will keep moving this stop loss order higher as the SPX moves up.

GLD - Breaking out – A buy the small dip consideration - The EU lowered its interest rate yesterday 0.25%. There are many reasons historically investors like gold – fear, inflation, deflation, printing $$$ and lowering interest rates is just another. Lots of strong fundamentals behind this DGP is the more risky double long gold ETF.

IMAX – Could be back. See :) D in comment section of blog – Let’s see what Paul has to say


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Long Term Outlook

3 to 6+ months

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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March 1, 2010

Hit Men

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Columnist Frank Rich

Frank Rich

“The… Obsessed and the Deranged

There is a symbiotic relationship between governments and capitalism. Without the checks and balances, or regulations from government capitalism will allow greed to run wild. The catastrophic 2008 economic meltdown was just another example of the long line of history that keeps repeating itself. Obviously capitalism works economically better that pure socialism, but when human being whose only bottom line is profit are left alone their schemes explode in bubbles of over leveraged greed.

The NYT’s Frank Rich has another excellent editorial similar to the one in Investors411 last Monday. His focus was on Francis Joseph Stack III, the terrorist/right wing hero who drove his own plane (he was rich enough to own a plane) into an IRS building to protest his tax situation. Rich has a far more extensive list of anti tax right wing zealots and politicians who give Stack III a pass or praise.  Urge you to read his editorial  It’s enough to make you wonder who is palling around with terrorists now.

George Soros

Economic Hit Men

(Part 2)

Banks are the good guys – It’s the loan sharks, or almost  totally unregulated entities that bring economic systems, taxpayers and countries to their knees that are the economic villains. Technological innovation is great for financial institutions, but unregulated it can also create over leveraged Frankensteins from AIG to Lehman Brothers.

Niall Ferguson, in his book The Ascent of Money points to two other financial entities that are today’s “economic hit men” – Hedge Funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds. Both can place massive amounts of highly leveraged capital in short positions against a currency,stock,  bond, or country.

  • Hedge funds are almost totally unregulated entities that pool money of ultra wealth individuals and can leverage it in a multitude of ways. There are thousands of the hedge funds who often take highly leveraged short positions on for example the survival of Greek bonds. (A current example). The “capo dei capo” of hedge funds is multi billionaire George Soros (also a major Dem. fund raiser)
  • Sovereign Wealth Funds have even more capital than and they can use their power as an economic weapon to take over or crush other economic entities.  “More powerful” than hedge funds and centered primarily in Arab dictatorship’s and China their power is staggering. Ferguson cites (page 358) a 2007 Morgan Stanley report “That within 15 years they could control just over 9% of total global financial assets.”

Bottom Line – There’s a Financial war out there. Some may call it a competition. There are some major sharks that are circling debtor nations (us) – Shadow financials, hedge funds, Sovereign wealth funds. SHARKS BITE AND GO INTO FEEDING FRENZIES. The more in debt you are the jucier you look to hungry sharks

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.51% up
NASDQ -0.08% up
S&P 500 -0,21% up
Russell 2000- +0.00% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.(No changes this weekend)

Last Week’s Fearless Forecast

“Everything technical (volume & McClellan) is showing that we are running out of rally room…Rally Ho, but it gets sold off at end of week.”  US Markets were down 0.4 to 1.5% for the week, so the Forecast, for the most part was accurate.

—————

Chili earthquake is going to impact copper prices – Chile world’s #1 producer of copper. Earthquake means copper prices going to rise.  In Boston all we’ve had is some rain, but up and down the East cost huge amounts of Snow will have a negative impact on the US economy.

Internationally the acronym to remember is PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain – These are the European countries, like the USA that have over leveraged debt problems.  The difference is these problems are peaking now & ours have been covered over by less transparency ant trillions of dollars. This comparative weakness will continue to make the dollar stronger & a stronger dollar usually means weaker stocks.

————

This Week’s Fearless Forecast

The US markets are trying to rally, but economic fundamentals seem to be moving in a different directions.  Similar situation to last week. Markets looking to rally, but economics keep declining.  Call – Flat week. – Rally gets sold into at end of week.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Index rose slightly  to +31.71 We are somewhat oversold, but have a ways to go to +60 Oversold territory.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

No change in major ETF positions.

ETF Positions

  • 10% of portfolio EWZ (Brazil)
  • 6%of portfolio FXI (China)
  • 10% of portfolio MOO (agriculture)
  • 3% of portfolio IMAX (3D)
  • 2.5% of portfolio TYH (3x what techs do) (Down from 7.5% last week)

Will be lightening up when/if positions reach oversold 0n McClellan Oscillator.

Also,  Set what’s called a stop/sell orders on at @ 3% above what it was bought for

  • recently bought (added to) EWZ
  • 1/2 of MOO, a longer term position.
  • The remainder of THY

Stocks

  • IMAX – doing fine – really hope this will be a long term hold – and there will be other dips to buy into on the way up.
  • Looking for entry point to buy PRLN & VPRT as well as some other stocks on YOUR watch list (scroll down on link)

Other stocks on YOUR watch list - the earliest I would nibble is when the McClellan Oscillator falls below 0 (zero)

Not adding to any major ETF positions until markets become oversold again.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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