Investors 411 Blog

“He Saved More Lives Than Anyone in Human History”

AP Photo by Bill Meeks

Nobel Prize winner Norman Borlaug died Saturday and American Corporate media ignored the passing of a man who “fostered a movement that save up to a billion lives.” Borland won the Nobel Peace Prize for fighting Hunger

Borlaug grew up on an Iowa farm and developed a type of wheat that helped feed the world. It’s interesting who American media chooses to honor with headlines. You can rad more about “The Father of the Green Revolution” here & here &  HERE

If our plant survives, Borlaug is one of those name will be remembered.

Your Doctor Accepts Heath Care Reform

A 2000 physician survey published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine LINK shows 73% “were willing to accept limits on reimbursement for expensive drugs and procedures for the sake of expanding access to basic health care.” This is quite a remarkable stat since this means a pay cut for doctors.

Can you imagine  the Gordon Gekko’s of Wall Street, your basic American politician, Shadow Bank executives, the Insurance Industry, the Pharmaceutical companies, & the Military Industrial complex taking the same stand?

Bank Robbers

(see Bottom Line below in red )

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+0.22%	up
NASDQ	+0.52%	down
S&P500	+0.62%	up
Russell2000	+1.08%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Obama spoke at noon yesterday and threatened reforms to fix the problems that cause the economic meltdown – Markets rallied – To put it bluntly – the rally was basically Wall Street laughing out loud over fear of his reforms. Wall Street owns far too many politicians, including those in his administration to worry.

Bottom Line – A bank robber steals from a bank and you catch him. He gets punished. A shadow bank top executive steals from a bank in a ponzi scheme and you give him more money or else he will shut down his bank and no one will have any money. Perhaps shadow bank executives lost a small, portion of his/her wealth when the bank’s stock dropped, and a few top dogs lost their jobs – but, so far, that’s all folks.

Fearless forecast for this week - Down early, as dollar stabilizes and fears of regulation (see below/above). But, rallies are getting bought into. So prediction is for another positive week. Repeat – this current rally is based on the dollar falling – Best read of tea leaves is for the oversold dollar to rally for at least a day or two.

Mantra - Protectionism is the great danger to worldwide economic recovery. A trade war especially between the USA and China would be about a big a hit to any recovery.  Yesterday – US and China are “bickering over tires and chickens,” This kind of news should have hurt stocks, but did not. LINK = Bullish when stocks react positively to bad news. However something to watch for further developments.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The BDI has leveled off and started to rise over the last few weeks. BDI fell a minor -17 Monday. BDI trading at 2451 and has recently formed a resistance level at 2388. Would not trust any rally, especially in foreign exporting countries if the BDI breaks down below this number.

Each day this still looks more like a base has been formed above a key support level Longer flat bottoms and slowly moving higher/lower is usually indication of, at least, a short term bottom-Bullish short term outlook for BDI and we have certainly recovered from the devastating lows of Dec./Jan. 2388 is number to watch

The BDI is 41% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost +170% from early April to Jun e

——-

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

One big reason Investors411 is currently  focusing more on US equities (XLF & SPX ) is because of the drop in the dollar making foreign exports more expensive in the US and US exports less expensive abroad. However, On the whole an orderly/slow drop of the dollar helps US markets and a case can be made that it helps worldwide recovery.

The dollar has fallen 6 days in a row.  It fell less again yesterday, but still dropped a small -0.07% yesterday. Dollar trading at $76.61. Rate of fall has slowed dramatically and it looks like a short term reversal is likely. 

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

One major downside – The falling dollar shows a lack of confidence in the USA

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

Added another 5% to portfolio of  SPX (at 1038)

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

“You Lie Boy”

Remember back in Oct. of 2002 when over 100,000 protesters gathered in Washington to protest the Iraq war. Even the supposedly left leaning Washington Post buried the story in its metro section. The paper’s ombudsman later lamented, “a couple of ho-hum photographs that captured the protest’s fringe elements.”

The Same WaPo puts on the front page Sunday, an anti government protest organized by the right wings favorite cable channel (Laughably called FOX news ) of “60,000 to 70,000 almost exclusively WHITE pro corporate interest protesters . The WaPo is only the tip of the corporate mainstream media that has focused on screaming protesters depicting opponents as Nazi’s or socialists rather than on the substance of heath care. LINK

This is no surprise when you consider Pew Research’s statistic that “the politics and the protests of health care, accounted for a staggering 62 percent of all cable news coverage” for one week in mid August.  LINK

Your comments recently have captured this inequity and American’s media focus on the disruptive lunatic fringe elements as a way to hide any legitimate discussion of the issues.

• From  a personal email – Other significant health care issues not discussed LINK to article
  
• From Doggie’s Mom – “Let’s get back on track” LINK
• From Bob Sadinsky – “the race card… Of the 47 million without coverage, I am sure that mainstream thought is that they are either Slackers, Black or Latino or Illegals. So why should my money go to cover them and worse yet,why should my coverage suffer so these “people” can be covered. LINK
• From NYT’s Maureen Dowd – “You lie boy” LINK
• From Think Progress A Sunday protestor (Fox media fan) on why Obama will opress white America video LINK

More and more its looking like the mainstream media is bias is promoting, but hiding an ugly racial divide that is growing in America.

Anniversary of Meltdown

On the eve of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the near collapse of financial institutions throughout the world, President Obama has a major address today.

Sherwehe , who has sent in some other very enlightening emails refers to an article in Vanity Fair entitled “Good Billions after Bad ” LINK to article

The lack of regulations to the “free market” got us is into the worldwide recession. Even Alan Greenspan admitted this. But as good as Obama’s speeches are his administration sure looks like a paper tiger when it comes to doing something. So far no real corrections have been made. Printed $ and tax payer funds have been given to shadow institutions throughout the world. OK, financial markets are recovering, but while their stocks have sizzled reform has fizzled.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	-0.23%	down
NASDQ	-0.15%	down
S&P500	-0.14%	down
Russell2000	-0.22%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Technically Friday’s slight loss in falling, below average volume , is just what bulls like to see.

Fearless Forecast for last week – ” is for a down week” – Except for Friday markets rallied – Therefore, prediction correct

Fearless forecast for this week – Down early, as dollar stabilizes and fears of regulation (see below/above). But, rallies are getting bought into. So prediction is for another positive week.

The second long term risk – Protectionism – If the BDI breaks down further is means huge cargo ships are sitting empty and protectionism is growing throughout the world.

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The BDI has leveled off and started to rise over the last few weeks. BDI fell a minor -22 Friday. BDI trading at 2468 and has recently formed a resistance level at 2388. Would not trust any rally, especially in foreign exporting countries if the BDI breaks down below this number.

Each day this looks more like a base has been formed above a key support level Longer flat bottoms and slowly moving higher is usually indication of, at least, a short term bottom-Bullish short term outlook for BDI and we have certainly recovered from the devastating lows of Dec./Jan.

The BDI is 41% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost +170% from early April to Jun e

——-

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. The multi year chart gives you a much better picture of  where we seem to be headed (down) and the next major resistance level. An orderly/slow fall in the dollar is good for the majority of S%P companies that make most of their $ abroad. Dramatic longer term falls indicate loss of confidence in America.

One big reason Investors411 is currently  focusing more on US equities (XLF & SPX ) is because of the drop in the dollar making foreign exports more expensive in the US and US exports less expensive abroad. However, On the whole an orderly/slow drop of the dollar helps US markets and a case can be made that it helps worldwide recovery.

The dollar has fallen 5 days in a row.  It fell less, but still dropped -0.17% yesterday. Dollar trading at $76.68 Short term Bullish for most stocks

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Last year’s low was around $71, so there is a long way to go before the next major support level.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

This is a dollar dropping rally. Don’t get a sugar high from it.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

The more you know about investing, the more you realize that everyone else (especially the more $ they have or control) knows more, has a bigger support team , more computers, better access to data and knows how to bend/manipulate whatever they are investing in.  These wealthy investors/entities/countries are like huge slow moving/turning super tankers. Therefore, your advantage is to recognize which way the fleet of tankers is moving and get their first.

Baltic Dry Sea Index

Nothing could be less exciting than something called the BDI.  But it is one way to measure the FLOW of money or direction our globalized world is moving in. The top 20 economic countries are meeting in London (see comments by “Critic” from London on right side of blog) The G 20 meets later this week and perhaps the drop in the BDI shows how fractured or nationalized the worldwide response to the recession is.  (Lots more below on BDI under fundamentals)

Money Flows

• To start realize that the standard of living just in the USA has or will drop from 20 to 50%. My guesstimate is combining the loss in home value, investments, jobs and the increase in debt. 
• Other countries, especially those like England, Iceland, and Eastern European countries whose banks adopted the same “free market” unregulated, over leveraged financial system are in worse shape. 
• Protectionism, just like in the Great Depression stops money flows, and we are a global economy. The world wide recession’s greatest danger is nationalism stopping money flows.
• Money flows best when goods are bought and sold. The more people that spend  money the faster it flows. When money is hoarded by an oligarchy or debt is forced on working folks money flows dry up.
• The major question emerging from our “Great Recession” is how to get the money flowing again and whose going to pay for the past mistakes.

Investment Choices

 Our huge debt, over leveraging and reliance on credit before the meltdown hit has put this country in much worse long term position to fix the problems created. This is why Investors411 recommends using hedges (ETF’s that short the markets – see Position sections) when markets rally to far too fast in the USA.

This is also why Investors411 recommends in Brazil and especially China (see Positions section of blog). They don’t have debt, but do have other resources.

Gold, GLD, is also recommended because in the long term all the money thrown by super takers (governments and other entities) to fix the problem is going to create inflation and devalue currency. This usually makes gold and other commodities more valuable. 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING