Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 19, 2012

We’re Back

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Because of your emails

Investors411 is back.

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However, instead of a daily basis

411 will  published two times a month

The focus will be the same

Stocks/economics/politics

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The comments section,

as always remains open

on a daily basis

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For Your Patience

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As many of you know this editor

and many of you spent much

of the last three months

working for the election of

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Rachel Maddow on

The results

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STOCKS

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PAUL’S CORNER

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I had the great pleasure of attending Ian Woodward’s HGSI Workshop this past October in Palos Verdes California. Lots of great review and always some new material that would as Ian suggests “knock your socks off!” and it did! Ian shares some of the finest market knowledge you can find. Ian produces a great blog and it will keep you on the right side of the market.

IAN’S BLOG

Ron Brown presented some great new searches for finding strong stocks. Ron suggests following stocks with strong consistent accumulation and he gave us the software to find the winners. Ron also gave a great presentation on trading options.  He showed us how to find proper stocks to trade options using the HGSI software. Options are new to me and the information Ron gave will be a great lesson.

Gil Morales, a long time analyst that worked for William O’Neil of Investor’s Business Daily, gave us an excellent presentation on shorting stocks. We came home with Gil’s presentation showing proper chart formations for shorting.

Dr. Jeffrey Scott, a longtime HGSI user, gave a good lesson on creating your own index of stocks to follow that will show when the market is breaking down. As a group we selected 24 strong stocks with great chart patterns. These sorts of stocks usually are fat with profits and will be the first to cash in with a collapsing market. Here is a chart of the index and it shows a break down with the market, but bounced nicely Friday. The leaders are usually the first to bounce up when the market turns up, we’ll keep an eye on this

Chart.


The following chart of Nasdaq Composite clearly shows the warning signs as we headed into this correction. A look at the chart with moving averages is all you need!

Chart

The current MO for the NYSE is -53.92, past history shows we usually bounce from this point, but there is a lot more to the down side that the MO can go. It’s probably too soon to start nibbling.

Watch the comments section if the market turns up I will start posting a


“stocks to watch list”.

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Even when Barr takes a break from posting, remember we can always post comments and questions to the latest blog post, so don’t go away mad………

Paul

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Obviously much of 411′s data  (see links at heading on top) is out of date.

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Over the Thanksgiving holiday

I’ll try to update

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There are many significant problems for stocks

including the fiscal cliff, tax selling, Europe, wars, and more

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But , as Paul points out,

our main tool

reached oversold/buy territory

last Thursday and is now

sitting just above oversold levels

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So I’m thinking about nibbling on stocks

rather than selling

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But, I sure understand being hesitant.

The main danger to bulls is unpredictable

fiscal cliff and Mideast war

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How to use McClellan Oscillator

here

(Scroll down)

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A Trade

Those of you who know how, my best advice is a put/call combination trade whose options expires in January/February or beyond. This is based on the belief that US markets will move dramatically as fiscal cliff deadline looms. (42 days) Also if there is a solution stocks will move dramatically.

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___________________

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Long Term Outlook

(3+months)

NEUTRAL.



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July 16, 2009

Market Updates – THE Secret Cult

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

"The Family"



THE FAMILY – The Secret Fundamentalist Group at the Heart of American Power - is the title of a New Book by Jeff Sharlet.

This group of Congressmen and Senators has met secretly for decades and has a "C Street House" in DC where some members actually live. They believe that "they were chosen by God not the people for their leadership positions" They are " a Christian Mafia" that are answerable to each other and not the voters. Hillary Clinton has actually praised their leader Doug Coe .

Some high profile events besides Sharlet’ s book (who lived with this group for a year) have blown their cover.

  • Philandering Governor Mark Sanford (R. SC) is a member of this group
  • Philandering Senator John Esign (R. NV) is a member of the group
  • Congressman Zach Wamp (R. TN) has recently partly broken the code of silence

When The Family members talk about accountability, they talk about accountability to this invisible group not to the voters. This is NOT democracy. The Family has existed for decades and was "deeply involved with lots of the death squads in Central Americas."

Rachel Maddow has an expose on the cracking the cover of this secret, mysterious, powerful, christian, fundamentalist cult who have secretly spread their tentacles throughout the world  here (video)

NPR also has interview with Jeff Sharlet here

Jeff Sharlet has his own site here

Your Comments

Check out the comments by Bob Sadinsky & "Confused Investor." on the comments section of blog.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +3.07% up
NASDQ +3.51 % up
S&P500 +2.96% up
Russell2000 +3.85% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Markets exploded  higher in increased above average volume. Not quite kick ass volume, but decent volume, especially for the NASDQ. Finally volume confirming Bull’s Rule.

The benchmark S&P 500 broke through a resistance level and finished at 932 . The last resistance level is 956 – this year’s high. The NASDQ also financial broke a resistance level and ended the day at 1862 , The NASDQ high for the year is 1880 . Now reasonable to expect that this year’s high will be challenged – Bullish sign.

Financials/Shadow Banks are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because t he Obama administration & the Fed has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown. The NYT did an editorial on this (see yesterday’s updates) Yes fixing the problem could have a negative short term impact on financial stocks, but everyone would be better off with a more transparent & ethical banking/financial system in the long run.

All of this rally is probably a false sense of security, because the fundamentals that created the problems have not been fixed. But for now ride the momentum .

After Intel’s fundamentals surprised investors, the next two stocks to look at are Google & IBM. They report after the closing bell. Alcoa (commodities) was the first to surprise, but markets did nothing. Now investors are  expecting a better than average earnings reports from these two tech giants. If we get decent numbers or forecasts (it does not have to be a "grand slam,") the tech rally should get extended.

JP Morgan reported earlier today and did well.  Few expect other banks to have the blowout numbers that Goldman Sachs had.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) A massive 6+% gain on top of yesterday’s significant 3+% gain. So the prediction on Monday about a bullish turn has come true again.  Price rise here is bullish for stocks across the world. Bulls Rule – gaining momentum.

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bullish
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is on the verge of falling down through in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+. Dollar closed at $79.40.

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Monday’s Fearless Forecast for week So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week Intel surprise is a strong fundamentally Bullish factor

Changing Long Term Outlook back to NEUTRAL – Both the BDI (world trade) and technology are green shoots

Our Positions

Personally I’m adding to positions early this AM and/or on any dips. (5% to 10%) addition .

  • Added another 2.5% to INF (see positions section at top of blog)
  • Added 5% to QLD (see positions)
  • For those traders (not longer term Investors) who bought recommended FAS made over +11% yesterday. This could go higher,  but no one went broke taking profits. So either set a 5% stop below current price or sell. I took profits at Adding the the close yesterday.

Adding another 5 to 10% today on any dip. Next two positions to be added on small dips.

  • EWZ had huge volume behind its rally yesterday
  • EWS (Singapore) NEW ETF not previously discussed. This market has outperformed all other major markets. It sits smack dab in the middle of trade routes and has a huge port facility. It is on the verge of breaking out of a multi month consolidation pattern.

If Google & IBM fail to deliver we can temper this move back into stocks.

From Yesterday – Rally ho

Note to Confused Investor (see comments on left hand side of blog) – Will clean up the Positions section this weekend. You’re right. Remember this is just one person writing, editing and publishing this blog.  Please allow for some foot dragging and especially poor grammar.

Note change in Long Term Outlook up ANOTHER level to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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June 11, 2009

Market Update – Terrorism in the USA

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP? – Another terrorist attack in the USA – Rachel Maddow editorial on terrorism – O’ Reilly,  Boss Limbaugh, left and right wing anti Semitism, hate groups and those who water them – Obama as the #1 target. – Reading Stock tea Leaves – Change in GEX position – and more.

Terrorism in the USA

Image: Rachel Maddow, MSNBC Anchors

Rachel Maddow Editorial Linked Below

Photo – Virginia Sherwood for NBC

  • Gun loving terrorists ambush/kill 3 Pittsburgh cops. They were afraid Obama may limit gun rights.
  • Abortion Doctor killed by pro life terrorist at his church
  • Army recruiter killed by newly converted Muslim Terrorist
  • Latest headline – Security guard a holocaust museum killed by anti Semitic, right wing, anti government, anti black terrorist, who believed Obama was not born in the USA.

These are the last 4 major terrorist incidents involving loss of life that American Corporate media has splashed on the front pages.  Of course they missed all the deaths/terrorism due to domestic violence.  This mostly involves killing women, who may have it better here than in many other countries, but are still second class citizens in the USA.

Many in the USA are part of a violent, gun loving culture that preaches hate, loves it torture, & and is conditioned by fear mongering. Boss Limbaugh (Talk show host Rush Limbaugh) according to a recent USA Today poll is #1 person on the list of the leaders of the Republican Party (To be fair a majority thought the party leaderless) Limbaugh preaches that Obama is more dangerous that al Quaeda.

Another influential hate monger Bill O’Reilly repeatedly likened the deceased abortion doctor to Nazi doctors and called him “Baby killer.”  Even members of the far the left wing in this country has started using anti Semitic statements referring to all Jews. While its hard to prove a direct link, People like Limbaugh,  O’Reilly and others  water the ground of this hatred.

Is the threat of right wing extremism getting worse? Economic turmoil and our first black president have further enraged the hate. Rachel Maddow has an excellent editorial on her MSNBC show last night.

Obviously, the major target of all these haters is Barak Obama.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.27% up
NASDQ -0.38 % up
S&P500 -0.35% up
Russell2000 -0.80 % -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

$USDThe dollar is the index to watch You could write a book on the dollars influence on everything but for us the bottom line right now is – When the dollar goes down -stocks and oil prices go up and visa versa.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) have been flat for three weeks. Financials has been the leading sector and as financials go so go the markets. Financials are lagging Techs. Yesterday financials down -1 .52%

WTICOil prices closed up +1.89 to $71.33 As stated before – “Higher oil prices are an indication of economic recovery, but also hurt that recovery because it means energy prices will rise.”

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade). Stated before -  This is extremely important because one of the greatest obstacles to a worldwide recovery is the lack of trade between countries (protectionism) Down for sixth day in a row, but the rate of decline is slowing. This follows 24 days of going up. So extended moves the normal this index.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Volume has Never really confirmed the breakout we had last week. Even though staying above breakout levels is a confirmation, one would really like to see an increased above average 1%+ gain for major US indexes.  We keep bumping up against another breakout level and failing.

Right now, markets seem to have over extended themselves and a 10% correction would be good in the long run for stocks . Trading is very light except for the NASDQ which is near average. (Summer trading is usually light)

Conclusion – Very light trading – This is a traders market and traders move fast.  Still expect and hope for a slight pull back or consolidation.  As stated before looking for entry points/dips to buy back into  some or all of the following –  QLD, EWZ, IFN and PBW (see GEX below) –

China, India & Brazil are growing and they are leading the world out of the recession. The USA has some “green-shoots” of hope, but there are big long term problems here.

Positions – (See positions section of blog for more)

  • FXI – our major position here rose +2.89% yesterday. This is the third failed attempt at a breakout. FXI was actually up 2=% more almost at a new high and pulled back.  It looks like FXI has formed a short term top.
  • GEX – alternative energy - +0.77 yesterday. GEX is trading at or near anew high for the year. We are going to change to the other major ETF that does alternative energy PBW . This alternative energy ETF is more liquid but its also outperforming GEX. We have been in PBW in past years and went with GEX because it outperformed. This will be a slow transition over the next month. Already sold 1/2 position in GEX and will add that $ to PBW on a small (5%) dip.  Then sell other 1/2 and wait for a dip.
  • The HEDGE – Almost no change. You can get a rough idea how this position does by looking at the difference between the NSDQ and S&P 500 – (-0.03% and multiplying it by 2) instead of looking up SDS and QLD

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING G !

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