.

Pinkwashing

.

By Yankee Bob

…

********************

.

Republicans

.

********************.

“Mittastrophy”

(Huffington Post Headline)

In a major upset, Republican candidate Rick Santorum won major victories in three midwestern state primaries/caucuses. Absolutely toasting Romney and crushing Gingrich and Paul.

What’s so mind blowing about Santorum’s trifecta is he has raised only $2.2 million to Romney’s $57 million.

Analysis from Politico

.

********************

.

STOCKS

• Low volume rallies (like this one) have pushed stocks higher since our Fed introduced quantitative easing a couple years back. It is working again.

• Primary obstacles to success are politics within the USA and potential problems with Iran.

• Investors411 has a position in XHB (up 5.27%) This like most of the beaten down sectors that have rallied is over extended in the short term. It would be very heathy for these over extended sectors if  the rallied cooled down for a while.

• Combination Option Trades based on an earnings event – IR is under consideration this week. Reports 7:00 AM EST this AM. While this is NOT an official Investors411 trade – good luck to those of you in it.

• Long term Combination Options Trades considerations WLT (Takeover rumors) MCP (can move a lot based on rumors and news) and USO (based on potential Iran problems and other factors)

Last Night’s

Republican Debate

.

Here’s Andrew Sullivan’s (fiscal conservative/social liberal)

View

“11.05 pm. Frank Luntz just gave us the quote of the night, as explosions – fireworks? – boom around the convention center. “It sounds like Fort Sumter out there.”

10.58 pm. I’m not sure what to say about this evening, except I want to take a shower. I’ve rarely been repulsed by the atmosphere of a debate as I was tonight…”

Want more?

Link here and here

________

Why Republicans want an end to the debates NOW?

LINK

“Romney #47 in jobs creation”

Thanks to EW for heads up on this

.

1. EUO – (ETF that’s double Short the Euro) – You might also want a put on this because they are cheap.
2. UCO – (ETF that’s double long oil)  Oil historically goes up in the spring and this video Thanks to HG for heads up on video.

• DAX way up 1.77% this AM (7:30EST) The correlation between European & US stock markets has become weaker, but still significant. Latest data below.

The Optimist

.

.

Warren Buffett

.

The Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is Challenge

Answered

.

.

Buffett & Republican Senate Leader McConnell

.

The Story

.

The richest man in the USA wants to pay more taxes.

He makes most of his money through capital gains (not work) and feels he should pay more than 15% capital gains tax. He thinks it’s not fair to the rest of us who work and pay a higher tax rate.

.

Buffet’s Secretary pays a higher rate of taxes than he does.

Most Americans pay a higher tax rate than Buffett.

.

So, McConnell and Republicans in congress challenged Warren Buffett.

If you care so much about America why don’t you pay more taxes?

In Time magazine Buffett has put his money where his mouth is and told wealthy Republican members of congress  he would match ALL their contributions dollar for dollar.

Will Republicans Put Up or Shut UP?

_______

Guess who pays a higher tax rate?

.

Uber wealthy Republicans or Brave 911 NYC Firefighter

.

That’s right, uber wealthy Mitt Romney has taken a pledge NOT to raise taxes on the richest 1%, who like him are paying 15% tax rates on the capital gains – most of  their income.

Hell, Romney even wants to hide his tax returns/wealth, unlike all the Presidents from Ronald Reagan to Obama – who has published his last 10 tax returns.

Romney and the uber wealthy skim the profits off the top while you do the work.

Whose side are you on?

Romney or the Firefighter

********************

.

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

• JPM  the before the bell earnings report Friday will set the tone. Big banks are leaders in the current rally and JPM is perhaps the most solvent of the group.

• Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell slightly to +51.53 . 50DMA at +0,37 Getting close to overbought territory – about +60. Since early 2008 a reading near+90 has indicated a reversal is coming, (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)= NEUTRAL/bearish

• Massive drop in Italian bonds this AM. -0.5% = Very Bullish

• Going to take profits on a  chunk of my EUO calls today. Still

• Warren Buffett takes a big position in BAC and the stock rallies 30+% – Why the call him the Oracle of Omaha.

Our President…

… mindful of soaring deficits, was pushing bold action to shore up the nation’s balance sheet. Cloaking himself in the language of class warfare, he calls on a hostile Congress to end wasteful tax breaks for the rich.

“We’re going to close the unproductive tax loopholes that allow some of the truly wealthy to avoid paying their fair share,“ he thunders to a crowd in Georgia.

Such tax loopholes, he adds, “sometimes made it possible for millionaires to pay nothing, while a bus driver was paying 10 percent of his salary – and that’s crazy.”

Preacherlike, the president draws the crowd into a call-and-response. “Do you think the millionaire ought to pay more in taxes than the bus driver,” he demands, “or less?”

The crowd, sounding every bit like the protesters from Occupy Wall Street, roars back: “MORE!”

*******************

The President who spoke these words was not Barack Obama

The year the above speech occurred – 1985

The President was

Ronald Wilson Reagan

• When did today’s Republican Party abandon their hero Ronald Reagan who raised taxes 11 times when faced with a deficit?

• When did the Republicans abandon Reagan’s “bus drivers” and the middle class?

• When did Republicans become the party of the richest 1% of Americans?

“The GOP has undergone a radical transformation, reorganizing itself around a grotesque proposition: that the wealthy should grow wealthier still, whatever the consequences for the rest of us.”

How, Why When?

The LINK

********************

Ohio and Debates

Republicans debated last night, but on Tuesday Ohio voters went to the polls.

They defended the freedom of working Americans to collectively bargain.  By a 61% to 39% vote they granted middle class working Americans the freedom to fight collectively for their rights

All Republican Presidential candidates were against this and latest poll show Obama’s popularity (a supporter of collective bargaining) at least 9% above Republican candidates in Ohio.

Its just one vote/poll/major issue, but when you compare it to the rights we give the elite oligarchy in America its very significant.

Thanks to Jim and Popeye for a heads up on this.

********************

STOCKS

That cut Bear Cub didn’t hang on but his mother is back and she’s angry.

The tipping point was when the Italian 10 year bond rate hit 7.00%.  The rate that others (Ireland, Portugal, and Greece) began their meltdowns. = Meltdown in US Equities.

WSJ on Euro Crisis. -

“the risks to the global economy are broad. The European and U.S. financial systems are deeply intertwined”

Every investors411 reader should realize by now the major link between European Bank debt, European Banks, and American Banks is the opaque Derivatives Market (CDS’a) that exchanges trillions of dollars of privatized over leveraged risk on European Debt.

Media virtually ignores the same derivatives that multiplied the over leveraging in the 2008 financial meltdown, because to many too big to fail shadow banks profit from it.

********************

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -10.66. 50DMA at +22.80. = NEUTRAL

Since derivative markets hides whose on the other side of a transaction, and too big to fail shadow banks and central banks have hidden or irregular accounting, its impossible to accurately predict stock trends.

Therefore Hedge plays like the GMCR listed below is far less risky than picking a market direction.

********************

Paul’s Corner

The Big Blue Line

Dave Landry is one of the many excellent market technicians kicking around Wall Street and is known for his Big Blue Line approach to the market and stock selection. It’s a very simple method; take a look at Dave’s excellent Big Blue Line YouTube video:

LINK

Pay attention to the three ways the Big Blue Line points and his discussion about buying in very oversold markets. Which way is the line pointing with respect to our current market?

Kindly post your thoughts about The Big Blue Line.

A short Paul’s Corner today,  that’s all folks!

[Editor's Note - Landry  presentation is enlightening]

*******************

“Applauding Death”

The Onion

A quote from The Onion has created a massive controversy.

The words “Jon Huntsman Onion” have 453 references asking about the validity of the quote and article, including the first one from ABC news.

Many thanks to RF who often updates us with the Borowitz Report. The “Huntsman quote” below -

“When I saw the numbers and realized Republicans weren’t embracing my message, I breathed easily for the first time in months…They’re terrifying. We’re talking about people who blame the unemployed for their own predicament and literally applaud the idea of letting those who don’t have health insurance die. What would it say about me if they gravitated toward me personally or approved of my political principles?“

The Reality

In the  America I grew up in you cared about your neighbor, community and country.

Today we sanctify greed.

Instead of shared self sacrifice, that person in the voting both could really “blame the unemployed for their own predicament and literally applaud the idea of letting those who don’t have health insurance die.”

The facts on health care aren’t a parody.

We live in the richest country in the world. A country where the 400 wealthiest people have as much wealth as the poorest 150,000,000 Americans or 80% of households.

The Organization for Co-Operation and Development OEDC is 34 nations banded together to promote just what their title says.

Their 2011 Report based on 2005 data show the USA with  far more expensive health care system and we narrowly edge out one other country for dead last in life expectancy. Just like the previous UN study.

LINK To Charts and editorial

********************

STOCKS

The Bulls are Back

The Cute white bear cub no longer leads the Stock Section of Investors411.

The short term bearish trend could not hold on

China leads and they are going to be around for a while. While US markets have moved @ +20% off their early Oct. lows China has moved @ +40% [FXI] FXI -ETF for 25 Chinese stocks – is on the verge of a breakout.

Yeah, Europe still matters, but China alone counts for 25% of worldwide growth.

“Wall Street Profits at Record Levels So Why Aren’t Stocks?” CNBC - CNBC sanctifies greed, so another headline might read “Wall Street Profits are Back So Why Isn’t Employment?”

Stocks rallied into the close on some pretty bad Euro/Italy bond data. Rallies in good news put the bulls back in charge – at least for the short term.

Our two forecasting tools remain in NEUTRAL – So there is plenty o room for a move either way.

• “The flip-flopper tag he [Romney] earned four years ago is taking on new resonance”. “Afraid to Lead” FOX News

• Cain’s 12 year old harassment accusation seem minor compared to other political sex scandals.

• Comparison –  OWS has had over 3000 arrests while those calling for democracy in Syria have over 3000 deaths

• Syria responds to Arab League’s proposal to end violence in Syria with threat – “Volcano” of blood if attacked LINK

• OWS Oakland Thousands peacefully demonstrate, marred by no one hurt vandalism/arrests at night. LINK

• Poll 75% of Americans support Obama’s Leaving Iraq withdrawal LINK

• Fed downgrades future GDP and employment numbers. Stocks hold gains. LINK

• God in politics –  Obama on his jobs plan “Even God wants to put Americans back to work.”  LINK

• Split in Greece over referendum NYT

• Private ADP report shows 110,000 jobs added – juices stocks yesterday LINK

• Europe has an unfunded plan that involves a 50% bond haircut and Greek austerity. If December referendum in Greece fails, then a whole bunch of CDS’s (over leveraged gambling) blow up causing EU & US banks big big big trouble. How German Chancellor feels about the Greek referendum shown in her face below.

The Face

Given

• When Fed stimulus programs first started US quarterly GDP had fallen to between -4 & -5%

• The benchmark S&P had fallen to 666.

• 7 quarter years later US GDP rose from -5% to over +3%

• The benchmark S&P rose from 666 to 1200.

• Unemployment in same period went from over -700,000 to +200,000 a month.

• Martin Feldstein [Reagan's Chief economist] Fed stimulus is reason stocks go higher and strong performance of US economy

Republicans/Tea Party Take over congress in 2010

• Call for no compromise, focus on cutting government instead of stimulating economy, No tax cuts/stimulus for even small business or extension of payroll tax cut. (Obama Jobs plan) They threaten Bernanke.

• Investors411 warns May 20th that stimulus will run out and downgrades stock outlook. Another downgrade today

• GDP falls from +3.3% to +1.5% (last quarter), jobs from +200,000 to 0 created each month.

• There is almost no sign of inflation in the USA as Treasuries are at their lowest ever.- The arguement used against stimulus

• Richard Koo - warns that every time Japan’s government contracts money supply GDP fell. When government added money/stimulated economy GDP rose.

• 100% no accident that this economy started to turn as the Tea Party started to rise.

Conclusion - It took the most massive government stimulus ever to bring us out of the Great Depression – World War 2.  Republicans are growing in power and that means a contraction in government spending. The Fed is under assault and they want Bernake’s head and any stimulus to stop. (No QE 3 – No tax cuts for small business)

We are being pulled back into the Great Recession by the withdrawal of stimulus. Both the end of Obama’s $787 stimulus winding down and QE 2′s end – Predicted on May 20th by Investors411. The rise of the anti stimulus (even tax cuts for small business) contract the money supply, Republicans is the catalyst behind this downgrade.

It doesn’t matter if Republicans don’t want any form of stimulus to heap blame on Obama/Bernanke for problems or they are true believers of cut government stimulus/spending and GDP will grow.

As long as the constrict the money supply side gains power, stocks and more importantly the economy will suffer.

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger

Investors411 The Long Term Outlook is changed to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

Today’s meltdown, is only the start if there is no additional stimulus and we continue to contract the money supply then even the old 666 on the S&P could be challenged in the next few years.

The Lost In Space Robot (old TV Show) that shouted when danger was around went off with a huge commotion and shouted

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger.

__________________________________

_______________________

Paul’s Corner

Looks like the market thumbed its nose at Operation Twist and sharply sold off after the news.  Just a sell on the news or are we in for more trouble?  Ian Woodward posted a great blog last evening with very detailed analysis of what to watch for in the market action.

LINK

All sorts of talk coming out from the Republican candidates on how to create jobs, suggestions range from eliminating the minimum wage, reducing government regulations, lowering corporate taxes and more. Amazon.com has a distribution warehouse in Allentown Pa. Read about how they have created jobs and the new work place conditions we all can look forward to in the new reality.

LINK

HGSI is having another informative webinar next week Sept 28. You do not have to be a HGSI user to benefit from the free webinar. Here are the details:

Join us on Wednesday, September 28th from 8:00 pm until 9:30 pm for “Prospecting and Trading in a Weekly Timeframe” by Ray F Ebert, PhD.

Ray will share his disciplined weekly trading strategies using HGSI and other software. He will provide technical analysis of prospects submitted by the audience.

Earlier this year Ray was selected to be a “Spiker” on SpikeTrade, a trading community managed by Dr. Alexander Elder and Kerry Lovvorn. In his first quarter as a Spiker Ray won first place for equity and second place for points in the weekly competitions. He also leads the Washington D.C. area HGSI User Group.

Register at: LINK

Looking at individual YSL 5 stock action yesterday after the Operation Twist announcement caution is suggested. If you dare to play please use real stops and don’t keep lowering your stop if your stock sells off.  ZAGG is getting toasted at the moment and needs some time to settle down and correct.

Detailed YSL 5 analysis this weekend, maybe. Watch the comments section.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not. Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

_______________________

I am exiting all long stock positions – Today’s meltdown may rebound, but the long term outlook remains bleak for stocks as long as the folks who want to contract money supply, are gaining power. (I’ll wait on GLD till it hits its stop/sell)

What would change this outlook is more stimulus from our Fed to Europe & USA. A realization that constricting money supply hurts stocks and the economy/GDP growth by a greater segment of the population. Unexpected GDP growth  Europe, emerging markets, USA.

HFT’s are obviously powerful enough to manipulate stocks up and down within a range.

_________________________

Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

.

Republicans Walk Out

Eric Cantor (Republican House majority leader) has walked out of the deficit negotiations.

Reason – he will NOT compromise on tax cuts for the richest Americans

From the Wall Street Banksters to Hedge Fund Billionaires we have seen a huge transfer of wealth in the last 30/40 years. Peter Whoriskey from WAPO is latest to come out with data. So lets mix his data with Robert Reiche.

• 1975 – The top 1/10 of 1% = 2.5% of US income.
• 2008 – The top 1/0 of 1%= 10.4% of US income. (They earn over 1.7 million a year)
• Today the top 400 richest Americans pay a  only a 17% tax rate.

Wall Street Banksters,(derivative investors/players that caused the 2008 meltdown) Hedge Fund Manager  and uber wealthy  who invest in the High Frequency Trades (They make $ off the imbalances in trades) and others pay only 15% on their capital gains tax.

The uber wealthy are protected by an army of lobbyist in congress and obviously Eric Cantor and Jon Kyle.  It also sure looks like the uber’s have a piece or perhaps all of Obama on their side too. He sure hasn’t stuck his neck out and lead in  this default crisis.

China

SHIBOR The highly volatile short term interest rate levels in China have come down, but the longer term 1 year rate is steadily rising.

The following is Good news for Europe (depending on your point of view) –  China working with IMF on Europe

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.49	Up
NASDQ	+0.66	Up
S&P 500	-0.28	UP
Russell 2000	+0.35	-

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

• Major News of morning - Two Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit have had their trading halted after falling about 8%.  Obviously bad news – how bad is in the details.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to +5.23 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months.  So we have rally room to till MO gets to +30 to +50 range. = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar rose  significantly +o.79% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. Another rally day like yesterday and the 5/1 rally will have a new high. For stocks short term trend = Bearish

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term – From yesterday – MO now neutral, and momentum with bears. Wrong about momentum High beta stocks were able to rally in increased volume, despite a significant move higher in the dollar. Most high growth/beta stocks make their $ abroad and a stronger dollar cuts their profits. When beta stocks rallied despite the dollar’s rise it showed strength – For now the bulls are back

• Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting.

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term - No change – See May 20th blog.

______________

Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago.

TZA yesterday opened up a massive +4% higher and was way too high to buy.

Repeat longer Strategy remains – I’ll wait till the MO gets to at least +30 to short stocks

• Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
• Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Oxford University

Science and Greatness

Quite simply the rise of western civilization came about through the rise of the  scientific method.

As Western civilization grew that knowledge and scientific methodology became institutionalized in the great European Universities and over the last century in the USA in such institutions as Harvard, Princeton, Stanford etc. As we nurtured both the institutions and the methodology the US leadership role expanded. Now  its in decline. Why?

• Greed based Science - Major corporations to inure higher profits formed think tanks, lavished money on scientists, bought media networks an dominate those networks revenue streams. Example – At an earl age kids have repeated hypnotically that Captain Sugar must be consumed to become happy like all your favorite heroes.
• Return to Religiosity - The scientific method  no longer takes a role but blind faith in a religious leader or concept becomes all consuming. Perhaps the best example is the science of evolution being challenged by creationism.
• Direct assault on Science – Those who win Nobel Prizes and have attended institutions like Harvard or the Sorbonne are look down at an ridiculed as not like us or their ideas are dismissed because the come from “liberal” or “foreign” universities

It is no accident that these are the  three major groups in the Republican party.

• The business wing that screams for no regulations of what they call the “free market” ( a term that should make you cringe every time you hear it). Everything should be run in the shadows without regulators to maximize the profits. Like 2008 – capitalize the gains for them  and socializes the risk for you.
• The charismatic religious leader who through the use of fear predicts the end of the world or hell if his/her interpretation of events thousands of years ago is not followed.
• The Mamma Grizzly’s, Tough Talking Trumps, and all the heroes of the Tea Partiers. They constantly remind us – Those who back science are elites and not like us common folks. Above all never compromise with your fellow Americans because they and the rest of the world are not like us.

Obviously many/most Democrats are held in rapture (a pun) of the Corporate oligarchy and cater to some of the other elements that denounce a scientific method. But its the far right that has changed what made us great. As we sink in the USA, not to worry, China, Japan, and so many other countries are valuing education and even our universities. They are the leaders of tomorrow.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.03%	Up
NASDQ	+1.37%	Up
S&P 500	+1.06%	Up
Russell 2000	+1.44%	-

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

______________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell yesterday -0.37%. A five day decline has placed the dollar below its 50 day moving average and that, of course, is bearish for the dollar. But for stocks  = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose dramatically to  +38.36 Check out this link to the MO chart and you will see  since last September each time the MO has been unable to rise over +50. Very reasonable to assume rally will soon become overbought. We’re almost there.= Bearish/neutral

____________

Paul’s Corner

[Editor's Note - This was written Monday night]

The Second Day of Summer 2011

Friday finished nicely higher for many stocks, has the bull market resumed? In electronic trading Monday oil closed down, under the assumption of a slowing USD economy and debt in Europe. Many of the oil related stocks have done well these past few weeks, we’ll see what happens at 9:30 this morning.

So what moved Friday? Looking at my favorite search for stocks in high demand we see the following top groups. Stocks with decent charts in bold.

Health-Drugs (8.00%, 8 securities)

• Amarin Corporation PLC (AMRN)
• Forest Laboratories  Inc. (FRX)
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
• Novartis AG (NVS)
• Questcor Pharmaceuticals  In (QCOR)
• Teva Pharmaceutical Industri (TEVA)
• Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inte (VRX)
• Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. (WPI)

Chem-Fertilizer (6.00%, 6 securities)

• Agrium Inc (AGU)
• CF Industries Holdings  Inc. (CF)
• LSB Industries  Inc. (LXU)
• Mosaic Co (MOS)
• Potash Corporation of Saskat (POT)
• Sociedad Quimica Y Minera De (SQM)

Enrg-O&G Explor&Prod (6.00%, 6 securities)

• Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
• Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP)
• Continental Resources  Inc. (CLR)
• Occidental Petroleum Corpora (OXY)
• Petrohawk Energy Corporation (HK)
• Whiting Petroleum Corporatio (WLL)

Semiconductor-Mfg (4.00%, 4 securities)

• Atmel Corporation (ATML)
• Avago Technologies Limited (AVGO)
• Broadcom Corporation (BRCM)
• Cypress Semiconductor Corpor (CY)

For those of you who enjoy searching for your own stocks, here is a list of HGSI selected stocks with a “lower left to upper right” trending chart pattern. They all are growth stocks with good fundamentals.

AIMC,CEVA,CF,CMG,CDXS,CPX,CY,EMC,FFIV,GLNG,HWD,INFA,KMT,KEG,PTEN,SRI,TSLA,VMW

Stocks listed are for education and NOT a stock recommendation.  Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I’m sure not going to.

____________

Positions

SLV/AGQ (very roughly 2x silver) SLV is up over 5% since it was placed in hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. Often I take 1/2 the profits between 5 & 10% and let the rest ride. I’ve put a stop in at what the SLV was bought for.  Have reasonable confidence the speculative move behind silver is going to continue along with GLD (ETF for gold)

REMX – (Rare Earth metals) This hopefully long term holding had a almost a 10% move last week in light volume. Don’t know what this exactly means, but the light volume rally in both REMX & SLV is very similar to what has become norm for major indexes in the Fed managed/manipulated US stock market.

Anyone who used Investors411 #1 “buy the dip” of a bullish trending sector strategy on REMX has enjoyed the ride. (wish I had bought more) REMX had fallen below its 50 day moving average (see chart)

YOUR Stock List - Many of the stocks in YSL #4 have had a stellar run over the last 5/6 trading days. You can view the list by clicking on POSITIONS at the top of the blog and scrolling down.

Disclosure – I own both SLV & REMX

____________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

So, you going to ignore him?

Tax and Spending

Since Obama and the Republicans answer to the shadow bank, military/industrial and other business cartels in Washington it is important to get get a more unbiased point of view on the budget. Here’s one from today’s NYT. Tax and Spending Myth and Realities A must read since  the cartels dominate the flow of information.

Military/Industrial Cartel

Just how powerful and dominate is this cartel? Their budget has gone up a staggering 81% in the last ten years.  Nothing comes close to creating debt like the military budget yet they are so powerful a cartel that neither Obama, the Republicans or the media address the problem in a substantive way.

The $700 billion yearly usually used as an approximation of the  defense department’s budget is as phoney as a three dollar bill.

• Foreign wars (Iraq, Afghanistan) are treated as supplemental budget items and not included
• Veterans affairs are not counting in this budget, yet this is closing in on 8.5% of total budget.
• Homeland Security (almost 3%) is not part of this budget and so are other smaller related military expenditures.
• Since programs like Social Security are paid for with their own tax or fees and are currently in the black they are not part of the growing federal deficit.  If you eliminate these programs as debt contributors, the military budget alone wind up contributing over 50% of the growing national debt. Some put this figure much higher

So if we take the $1,000,000,000,000+ military budget and increase it by 81% growth over the next 10 years you come up with a $4 to $6 trillion dollar increase over the next ten years that almost every politician in the USA ignores.

You’ve seen Republican’s ignore the King Kong of deficit creators in the Room (far bigger than the 800 lbs. gorilla) and today you will see Obama in a speech to the nation virtually ignore it.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.95%	up
NASDQ	-0.96%	down
S&P 500	-0.78%	up
Russell 2000	-1.39%	-

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

• This is different. What has been a 3/4 day market correction has happened in light volume. Used to be we rallied in light volume and sold off in heavy volume.
• The dollar , oil and MO have fallen significantly and the likelihood of at least a technical rebound is growing (see below)
• Republicans seem to want to play politics with the Debt Ceiling. This could have a significant negative impact on stocks. More on this in later Investors411. Surprised the Wall Street part of the Republican party seems to be caving into the Tea Party wing on this.
• The key to US equities remains how accommodative the Fed can be. If it is limited by the debt ceiling or something else – watch out below. Everything will suffer.
• Fed announces POMO schedule though May 14. $80 billion, plus a second program of $17 billion. Can’t help but wonder if this second program will continue beyond the supposed end June 30th. Analysts very divided on a QE #3(more quantitative easing after June 30th)

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Dollar fell moderately yesterday -0.23%.  The trend since start of year is bearish with lower highs and lower lows on chart, We are at a lower low.  For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -51.72. Almost oversold. = Neutral/Bullish

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

From yesterday – “Looks like we are in for a correction. The dip last month took the MO down to -85 (see link to chart above)” and in past has gone as low as -135.MO at -51.72 now

Bottom Line  Till it Breaks Down – No Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market. So we are nearing a buy the dip territory.

The dollar at a low, oil prices plummeting last 2 days, and the MO nearing oversold levels shows we are ready for a rebound. If oil , the dollar & stocks continue to fall I will buy the dip. The further the better. This may only be a short term play (day, days, a week, or more).

Debt ceiling Republican soap opera politics in Washington could really hurt stocks. Question becomes will US default? Investors hate uncertainty and this is yet another bond holder to get out of treasuries.

This could kill the duration of the expected rally higher.

What to watch today – For shorter term traders Market movers.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down – Big hit in last two days – for stocks – Bullish
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks. Now bullish
• AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. AAPL rebounded yesterday. Perhaps the start of a rebound rally? Still, overall = Bearish
• Japan Rector Developments - This keeps getting worse.
• EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended and now correcting.

.

___________________

Positions

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”