Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
September 29, 2010

No Respect

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Getting No respect – Rodney Dangerfield

No Respect

Yesterday 53 Democrats voted to end the filibuster on a bill that would give tax breaks to companies that brought outsourced jobs back to the USA. It failed to get the required 60 votes to break the filibuster.

It’s remarkable that almost NO media outlet is giving this important jobs bill coverage “aimed at small manufacturers, including a payroll tax exemption for companies that move jobs to the U.S. Ill. Senator Dick Durbin was the bill’s chief sponsor. What’s more important than Jobs, Jobs Jobs for the American economy and workers?

The TEA Kettle Movement

What is getting all the news instead of substance is the “Tea Kettle Movement”  (Tea Party) That’s just “letting off steam.” The above & following quote is from NYT’s Pulitzer prize winning Tom Friedman

“The Tea Kettle movement can’t have a positive impact on the country because it has both misdiagnosed America’s main problem and hasn’t even offered a credible solution for the problem it has identified.”

Bottom LineScreams and anger gets the attention in our corporate controlled media instead of substance and jobs. Is Friedman right in his assessment?

Investors411 is going an break for a few days, the comments section will be open. Also next week Investors will be shutting down Thursday and Friday. Happy trading.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.43% up
NASDQ +0.41% up
S&P +0.65% up
Russell 2000 +1.07% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - ”The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. CNBC’s Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.

US Markets -

Stocks rallied moderately in increased volume. The NSDQ’s volume was even above average. But average volume is @30% less than this time last year.  Lack of volume shows that the retail investor has all but vanished and financial manipulators are in control.

One of those manipulators is our FED that again used the POMO to push money into the economy yesterday. Perhaps this served as a reminder to investors that the FED is ready to “do whatever it takes” to insure economic health, even if inflation is the end result of all this money flowing into markets.

Markets moved higher on some worse than expected consumer confidence news.  Higher stocks on bad news is bullish.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell  -0.41% yesterday. After sharp two week fall some sort of consolidation is to be expected. Looks like we have had a very short consolidation.  Longer term trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a tiny +2.16% yesterday.  An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall, now pushing higher. Could be return to bullish trend. Another day or two of positive gains would turn this index’s trend bullish But for now = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]   Rose to +14.96. Still lots of room to move higher or lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The vast majority of stocks/ETF’s move with the markets. Here’s what to look for while Investors411 is on hiatus. The comments section is still open.

  • Same guidelines on the MO. But we are no where near overbought. so still room for bulls to run.
  • Check out the movements on the dollar. If bears continue to rule stocks will go up. However if this fall turns into a crash & burn we are all in trouble.
  • For rally – Benchmark S&P 500 has resistance at 1170 and major resistance at 1220. For reversal support level around 1130. We’ve already tested this level and its held.
  • The bulls are running right now.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore) 2% trailing stop loss on 50% of position/ 4% trailing stop/loss on the rest.
  • USO (price of oil/commodity).
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I now have a 2%trailing stop on 1/2 this trade and a 4% on the rest.
  • TYH (3X technology) 2% trailing stop on this ETF. for today.

Obviously choosing just one or two stocks to invest in has lots of risk. Example AAPL drop at open yesterday (see comments section of blog) or GMCR 10+% drop in after hours trading.

Each YOUR Stock List’s had over a dozen choices.  Diversity is a key word in investing. So a less risky investment would be 1/2 or more of a group of stocks.  This also is exactly what an ETF does.

Your can make great gains as we did with IMAX earlier this year (up 65+% at high), but its safer to hold ten stocks, even if they are more volitive or high growth stocks that you folks seem to choose for YOUR stock list.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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August 21, 2009

Market Update – Rodney Dangerfield

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Rodney Dangerfield

The late comedian’s famous line was "I don’t get no respect." He’d bemoan his obviously earned lack of respect.  The same holds true for Obama. Doggie’s Mom points out in the comments section that under Obama we have had a financial recovery. Yet Obama gets no respect.  It all comes down to Health Care and leadership.

Where’s the Obama who stood tall when he ran for president? Where’s the passion that made us believe? Where’s the vision? Where’s the guy who withstood all Hillary, McCain and the far right threw at him? Where’s the Obama charisma?

Obama gave a milk toast talk yesterday stating "We’re going to have Heath Care Reform." He wasn’t exactly cardboard, but he was certainly no George Bush putting his arm around a 911 firefighter telling us its all going to be OK.

There’s a time to be cool, analytical, smart and a consensus builder, and there’s a time to stand and fight.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.76% down
NASDQ +1.01% flat
S&P500 +1,09% up
Russell2000 +1.25% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Yet another  weak below average volume rally. Therefore no confirmation of the price move either way. The major indexes are all approaching yearly highs. Hard to see any significant breakout because the volume is soooooooo weak.

Sometimes, the unexpected happens – Just about any technical analysts sees the above weak volume rally and in no way expects a rally. So if a rally happens all these technicians (and there are lots at major institution) are forced to cover. Consequently markets move higher.

The one fundamental that is the driving force behind the stocks surging is financials – From AIG to Citi, to B of A to GS and many others.  They are borrowing $ for nothing and getting very credit worthy clients to make loans to. They do not have to use mark to market accounting – so the books don’t reflect potential losses. Government is doing nothing to regulate them and the health care debate consumes all the news.

One should hope for some sort of regulations to return on those who caused the worldwide economic meltdown – but the too big to fail shadow banks are raking in the profits. This is the gravy train of wealth creation right now .

——–

The big number to focus on will be the August unemployment number in early September.

S ignificant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern .  The BDI fell - 70 t he n -9 0 & -80 yesterday. We’ve again broken a support level and formed another lower low. The mid term trend since early July is clearly bearish, with a series of lower lows and lower highs. @ 2298 is a major area of support and the BDI has fallen since early June from 4291 to 2534

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bearish pattern
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

Bottom Line This is NOT looking good . While we are still a long way off from major support levels but the mid term (since June) bearish trend is growing. T he case for trade barriers between nations and a growing worldwide recession is getting stronger.

While this index does not have as immediate impact on stocks, as the Dollar does, it is very significant to long term worldwide economics.


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$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

The dollar fell -0.17% yesterday and, you guessed it, stocks rallied. The Dollar is in a range between $79.5 and $77.5 . A breakout to either side will seriously impact stocks. Dollar closed at $78.35

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

A gradual reduction in the price of the dollar is part of the solution to global worldwide recession

This is the index to watch because its impact is immediate.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on "Positions" at top of blog). Check it out

Still have not had a chance to revise Positions section of blog.  Buying on dips – Smaller positions in FXI (China) & EWZ (Brazil) have been added to. Also an SPX (S&P 500) position has begun to be built on dips . Will update over weekend.

  • Considering selling the smaller amount of China stock recently added at a loss and a small amount of longer term position on China.
  • Going back into US financials as a longer term play on dips – If Dems & Obama are going to do nothing to regulate these massive (too big to fail) institutions and continue to throw cash at them – T hey will continue to make $$$$$. FLX , UYG (2X) financials & FAS (3X financials) are the ETF’s to use depending on you level of risk.
  • This is shaping up to be at least a 5 to 10% correction . Perhaps we’ll have to wait till September when volume should pick up for a bigger correction.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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