Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 3, 2012

Two Scandals Explode

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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International Banking

Scandal Explodes

b

.

Too Big to Fail

Bankstas

Skim YOUR money from

2005 to 2009

Before, During, After 2008

worldwide financial meltdown

.

Massive Furor in UK/Europe

Where’s the Outrage Here?

.

Who owns the politicians

and the media?

.

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“There’s vast criminality in Wall Street now.


It’s bribery, theft, fraud, bid rigging, price


fixing, gambling, loan sharking. All of these


things, it’s all organized.” - MATT TAIBBI

.

.

Just 1 of the 17

too big to fail

Banksta/Vampire Squids

has settled with

gov’t regulators

[List includes a who's who

of too big to fail US banks]

.

Skimming/profiting from

YOU and World Hunger

.

Today’s Headline

Barclay’s CEO resigns

in disgrace

______

.

We’re all outraged that none

of the plutocracy ever goes to jail

under Obama

.

.

The catastrophic outrage is

Romney and Republicans want to

cut Regulators and Regulations

that are catching bankstas

who steal YOUR money

.

******************

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Drug Cartel Scandal

Explodes

.

$3 Billion Fine

Biggest Ever

.

.

Glaxo Smith Kline

.

Failure to Report safety problems

Promoted drugs for unapproved uses

Drugs that cause heart failure

Drugs we give our Children

Seven Years of deceit

.

At least, the Amounts of Fines

are increasing

$22+ billion collected

.

.

How much longer are

you

going to remain silent?

.,

Romney and Republicans

are demanding

less regulations, less regulators

and “free markets”

for the Banking and Drug cartels.

.

******************

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STOCKS

.

.

.

Unless we get

regulators and regulations

the ultimate end pictured above

.

But for now

Second half of 2012 Outlook now

in POSITIONS section of blog

(scroll down to Outlook for 2nd 1/2 of 2012)

.

From Yesterday

“Short term - Hopeful, of bullish bias (see above) till earnings season – Starts end if next week.

If stocks can hold onto or add to Friday’s gains today/this week – its positive for US stocks”

We held onto Friday’s gains = Bullish

.

The McClellan Oscillator

is at OMG overbought levels

+85.09.

For over three years it has been

impossible to move higher from

OMG overbought in the short term

.

Expect, at least consolidation

before any significant gains

.

Long Term Outlook

3+ months

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS


.


.

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April 18, 2012

A Photo and Spain

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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Investors411 is [Mostly]

Taking a Break Today

But…

.

.

From Stock tips to political Debate

The Comment Section is Open and

.

.

This photo taken yesterday at

Fenway Park in Boston and

.

Tax Dodgers at Fenway Park

.

View Full Size Photo HERE

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Spanish 10 Year Bond Rates

.

The current #1 factor influencing US and world wide stock prices is how close Spanish Bonds prices are to 6.00%. This level has become a potent resistance level.

As of  7:21 EDT Spanish 10 years fell further to 5.80%. (Day/swing Traders – check out SB 10 year price if you want to trade on the expected poor opening – based on some less than stellar tech company earnings reports) There is some kind of major bond auction in Spain Thursday.

Longer Term – It must also be noted the the US 10 year bond is very low – This forces $ into stocks.

.

Same Outlook as yesterday

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 10, 2012

Mr Burns/ The Simpsons

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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First  -  A Fun

Quiz

Slowly scroll down, because answers are on the bottom

(I got 9 of 14 right)

.

.

Pass it on

Source and facebook link

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****************************

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STOCKS

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Italy (Pictured Above)

.

___________

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Eurogeddon is

One Step Closer

this AM

.

Meltup in Bond Yields Continues


  • Italian 10 year bond yield is rising this AM, (up 1%) but not past Thursday’s high. 5.54% (8:15 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone but along with Spain in a month long meltup thats increasing in speed.
  • Spain’s 10 year bond yield moving in concert with Italy. Up 2.99% to  5.92% (6:15AM EST)

We have a problem

.

It sure looks like the

Central Banks are losing control

in Europe.

.

.

Where The Hell is the

Cavalry???

__________

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Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell  to -76.92. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) We are in oversold territory at @-60.  MO is  = Bullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. & a three year chart. Remember – The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms.  Check out the charts. Last dip was to - 85 in March, then -110 in November and then a 3 year low of -140 last April.

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Fundamentals Trump Technicals

.

.

The Meltup in Bond Yields

Trumps our Bullish MO

.

**********************

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  • Spanish bonds over 6% will change the log Term Outlook to NEUTRAL.
  • Technically we do have a buy the dip possibility, but its getting trumped. So let’s wait for a lower MO.
  • US markets, especially AAPL, holding up surprising well, despite Europe’s troubles.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Very Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 9, 2012

Racism and Media

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Yes We Can

America*

.

.

We scored another victory against

women haters an racists late last week

.

.

The Influential Conservative Publication, National Review

fired

serial “misogynist” and “racist

John Derbyshire last week.

It’s a free country and racists and women haters, have their right to free speech, but those of us who believe in equality have the right to fight back against their hatred.

The enlightened action by the National Review would never have come about unless we all had stood up against another public figure with a history of hatred toward blacks and women - Rush Limbaugh

.

Derby is a Tuna compared

to the Great White Whale

.

.

Now 67 Advertisers have pulled adds from Limbaugh’s show. (Walgreens the latest) Add this to the @100 who have said preemptively they would not advertise.

Limbaughs

20 Worst Racial Attacks

..

.

Investors411.readers know why some people feel Limbaugh must continue to spew his vile hatred of women and blacks.

.


Without Limbaughs millions of like minded haters,

right wing candidates would lose much of their support.

.

Of course you all remember Romney’s Bain Capital

is one of the hidden owners behind Limbaugh’s network.

*Thanks to Yankee Bob for the term “Yes We Can America.”

Thanks to the National Review for firing Derbyshire and earlier MSNBC for suspending Ed Schultz for two mysogyist remarks. ..

.

********************

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STOCKS

.

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

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_____________

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The Dreaded

Triple Whammy

.

.

Mamma Yokum

.

Mamma Yokum was a beloved  character from the old Li’l Abner cartoon.

.

She could “melt a battleship with her

Triple Whammy”

.

We may not have had something as sever as a triple whammy over the three day weekend, but we sure had three big pieces of bad news.

.

______________

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Repeat from last week

The Stock Cycle

A graph from Zero Hedge on what’s moving stocks now

.

The Good News -  We are in the “Market Sells Off/ Outlook Deteriorates (closer to the end) of the cycle.

The Bad News - is three fundamentals have smacked down stocks across the world.

.

  1. A disappointing  US jobs report saw less jobs growth than the last three months and less than expected numbers (Expected – 180 to 200 k  jobs created. We got 120 k). Poor economics starts to bring on talk of Central Bank intervention.
  2. CPI numbers out of China were worse than expected. (3.6 instead of 3.3) Greater chances of inflation mens less chance of intervention by their Central bank.
  3. Italy and Spain bond yields are moving up this AM (see below)

.

_____________

.

Mohamed El Erain

on with the markets

fixation on Central Banks liquidity

Mohamed is the #2 at the mother of all bond firms PIMCO.

.

____________

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Another Strong fundamental

- Earnings Season

Starts this week.

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______________

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Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell  slightly to -52.67. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) We are approaching overbought territory at @-60 MO is  = NEUTRAL/bullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. & a three year chart. Remember – The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms.  Check out the charts. Last dip was to - 85 in March, then -110 in November and then a 3 year low of -140 last April.
  • Not there yet, but we are getting down close to buy the dip territory.

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______________

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Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses several different gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks and bonds.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield is rising this AM, (up 1%) but not past Thursday’s high.  5.45% (6:45 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone but…

.

The Canary  Coughed.

.


*********************

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When Do We Hear the Trumpets?

.

.

Will the Central Banks ride to the Rescue?

.

Paul Krugman editorialized last week that our fragile economy needs needs stimulus not austerity. He believes Bernanke and the Fed are intimidated by the Republican’s call for his head.

Jobs growth certainly rose much faster when the Obama stimulus impacted the economy. than after the Republicans took over congress.

Our Fed’s “Operation Twist” is in effect and runs out in June. Our interest rates on our treasury bonds are very low.

It is Europe that’s the clear and present danger, because of the rising bond rates and their closer proximity to 7.00%. That’s when the casino of unregulated derivative gets threatened.

Best Read of Tea Leaves

.

.

After an obvious stock meltdown early this AM, the most significant factor is – Are Central Banks Losing Control of the Spanish/Italian bond market?


The final look at the Spanish 10 year bond

NO change at 8:45 AM EST.


**********************

.

  • If you’re a short term trader you already run for the exit.
  • If your a long term investor you’ve got plenty of gains behind you and can weather a healthy 5 to 10% dip/correction
  • The key metric for both trader and investor is those rising yields on Spanish and Italian bonds.
  • Tomorrow – Will the MO get low enough for a buy the dip opportunity.


Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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March 23, 2012

Santorum Shocks

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

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Santorum Shocker

.

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“Obama’s Better Than

Etch A Sketch Romney”

.

Have you ever seen a major candidate from one party say the other party’s candidate (Obama) would make a better president?

.

Lead story/interview from  NBC More from Huffington Post More from CBS

Why the “Etch A Sketch” Label will stick - Time Magazine’s Joe Klein

.

.

Romney, spent yesterday emphasizing that the bailout save the USA from a

“full scale depression.”

Bush, Paulson, Bernanke and a majority of Dems supported the bailout.

.

*******************

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A Personal Note

.

.

Serial Misogynist

Rush Limbaugh

.

As CDB says in the comments section of the blog – “few have problems with those who make one or a few politically incorrect statements.” True.

.

Personally, I have a wife, daughters and grand daughter and I am going to defend them to my utmost ability against anyone who dehumanizes and objectifies them. Especially, someone who continually does this day after day, after day.

Bullies wont stop unless YOU take a stand.

.

******************

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STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Headline

.

openingimage

.

China

Is The Bubble Bursting?

(Photo from ETF Digest)

.

  • The possibility of a hard landing as the Chinese economy slows down became more real yesterday. This sent shivers to stock markets around the world. Story from International Business Times
  • Its a bit surprising that US stocks fell as little (@-0.5%) as they did (lighter volume too) on the China news.
  • More confirmation of a hard landing for the Chinese economy would have a negative impact on US and world equities.
  • The major fundamental behind stocks remainsCentral Banks printing money and low interest rates. It forces money/people that want a higher rate of return into stocks and other riskier assets.

Therefore a Long Term Bullish Bias

______________

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Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -49.53. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) MO approaching oversold territory = NEUTRAL/bullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. From two days ago - “The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms. However,…the chart  looks like we maybe heading down the next few days. Would love to see a dip low enough (past-60) for a clearer MO buy signal.”

.

______________

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Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up again  to 5.16% (7:15 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone, but its started to rally again
  • Reports out of Spain (the second largest European country in trouble) are worsening. Rising to 5.49% rate at yesterday’s close.
  • Our USA canary in the coal mine - The US ten year T bill broke out of its trading range two weeks ago. Hardly something to worry about yet. Rates have fallen last two days to  2.27% yield. But rising rates is something to keep an eye on.

_____________

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.

Reading Tea Leaves


Bottom Line – From two days ago “The rally off the last dip is cooling off…. So this does look like a ”healthy”rest for stocks. If our MO goes low enough, perhaps a buy the dip situation will arise.”

We have had warnings of a fundamental shift in China. How dramatically and/or fast China slows down is significant. Probably not a concern, because China will manufacture (lie or exaggerate) about data. But something to keep an eye on.

Still looking for the MO to drop low enough to “buy the dip.”

.

********************

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YOUR Stock List

.

A week or two ago Paul Listed some of the stocks in YSL #8 that had become potential “Buy The Dip Candidates.”

Your never near 100% (unless your a HFT trader), but there have been, as Popeye would say,  some

.

Winner Winner

Chicken Diner Stocks.

.

  • FT - Footlocker - chart
  • CMG – Chipoltechart
  • DLTR – Dollar Tree – chart

Considering three down days in a row,

The Results Deserve some

Trumpets

.

There’s more – Review the whole list here (March 12th blog – scroll down)

Check out the comments section of blog for more.

_________

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A Special Shout Out to George

who suggested buying Etch a Sketch Stock two Days ago

Etch a Sketch stock (Ohio Art OART:OTC US) went from $4.00 to $12.50 yesterday. This is one very small company. Proving, once again, how important fundamentals are to stock prices.


..

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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March 22, 2012

War on Women

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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War On Women

.

Photo is Link to 60 second video

Extended Cut (96 seconds) here

Video’s speak for themselves. Spread them. If you use Facebook – A Link

From men telling women what to do with their bodies to women earning  75% of what men do,…

.

Discrimination still exist.

.

*****************

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Romney’s Platform Like

Etch-A-Sketch

Shake it up & Start over again

.

Mitt Romney Etch A Sketch

.

All politicians change positions, But…

Mitt Romney

has, become the poster boy for

.

Flip Flops

.

The Romney campaign’s senior advisor  told the media that Romney’s campaign positions were like “Etch A Sketch.”

They would wipe the slate clean and start all over again in the general election. From Politico the storyincludes clips from original statement, Santorum/Gingrich response, Democrats response and analysis.

.

How would you feel if the advice given in Investors411 was NOT what I really believed?


Thanks to George for the heads up on this.

..

*******************

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STOCKS


.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol..

..

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

.

Headline

.

.

Movie – Hunger Games

.

Maybe you’re one of the 26 million who have read the books,

If not, this weekends movie will help you understand the above photo

.

  • Check out chart of Lions Gate, the producer of Hunger Games. The movie is in 3D. So, YSL 2012 stock IMAX may benefit. Avatar was a much better movie in 3D. Judging from the previews It’s hard to see a big upside IMAX stock move happening because of Hunger Games. Maybe a smaller move.
  • Bottom LineThe three day rally in Lion’s Gate shows FUNDAMENTALS (Lions Gate new movie) are the engines that drive stock prices.  Everything from our Old faithful MO to astrology may offer guidelines or warning signs, but fundamentals rule.
  • The major fundamental behind stocks is Central Banks printing money and low interest rates. It forces money/people that want a higher rate of return into stocks and other riskier assets.


Therefore a Long Term Bullish Bias

______________

.

.

Old Faithful

McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -25.00. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) NO technical pressure on  either bears and bulls = NEUTRAL
  • 6 month chart of MO. From Yesterday – The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms. However,…the chart  looks like we maybe heading down the next few days. Would love to see a dip low enough (past-60) for a clearer MO buy signal.”

.

______________

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.

Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up  to 5.07% (6:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone, but its started to rally again
  • Our USA canary in the coal mine - The US ten year T bill broke out of its trading range over a week. Hardly something to worry about yet with at a low 2.29% yield. But rising rates is something to keep an eye on.

_____________

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Bottom Line – The rally off the last dip is cooling off.  Fundamentals have NOT dramatically shifted. So this does look like a “healthy” rest for stocks. If our MO goes low enough, perhaps a buy the dip situation will arise.

.

********************

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Paul’s Corner

.

.

AAPL, AAPL, AAPL, AAPL

I gotta buy AAPL,

I just hafta buy AAPL!

.

Gee it’s worth more than the coffers of Mitt Romney, more than Rush Limbaugh, it’s the most valuable company in the world I just need to buy.

Or do I? Let’s be old fashioned and take a look at the chart. I know some folks don’t see the sense at looking at a chart, why look at a chart when it’s a company like AAPL? The AAPL store is standing room only and the customers go around the block so why look at the chart?

EW asked a few days ago “what’s an extended stock?”. Well EW AAPL is a perfect example of an extended stock, in fact it’s a very extended stock.

Being extended doesn’t matter, it’s APPL! Oh really? Well let’s take a look at AAPL’s chart, yeah yeah, I know you don’t need to check the chart, it’s AAPL.

A stocks chart is a history lesson of its performance over time. One of the first things to check when looking at a stock chart is how far it’s from its moving averages, and the typical moving averages used are the 17, 50 and 200 DMA’s.

The following chart shows under what conditions a stock is extended, is dangerous to buy and should be watched closely for profit taking by the institutions.

LINK

So EW, please be so kind and get out your pocket calculator and tell us if it’s dangerous to buy AAPL at this point.

And the answer is?

While we patiently wait for EW to find the calculator, I have an easier way to check a stock extension. Using the proprietary Ian Woodward indicator available on HGSI software we can pictorially chart a stocks extension and evaluate if it’s safe to buy or even own a stock.

LINK

This indicator in the top of this chart shows the stocks extension from its moving averages, the 17, 50 and 200. The top thin blue line is the sum of all three and we call it the High Jump Indicator. History shows in the recent past how high above its averages AAPL gets and corrects. As you can see AAPL is roughly double its historical point of correction and if history is correct, AAPL will correct.

So my friends, is it safe to buy AAPL at this time?

.

**********************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 21, 2012

Hypocrites

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Hypocrisy and

and Rich Republican


Now that so many Americans have made it – own their own homes and have at least hundred of thousands in investments. Lets take a look at some of the benefits we had getting started on the road to riches from 1950 to 1980


  • No threat of “outsourcing” your job.
  • No K Street lobbyists creating tax breaks for the wealthy.
  • A Capitalist Banking system then, not a deregulated casino

.

.

This is just some the advantages we had growing up and starting out. If you were middle class it was hell of a lot easier to make it in America – To buy a house – To raise a family – to save money.

Now, right wingers want to hold those struggling accountable. Here’s what they say.

.

“I worked hard to get where I am,

so should you.”

.

Bloody Hell

.

Hypocrites!

.

Look at all the advantages

YOU had!

We’re not calling for a 100% reversal. All we’re asking is give those who want to work some of the advantages that YOU had growing up.

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*******************

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Republicans

.

Romney wins Illinois Primary 46.7% to 35.0% for Santorum.

Romney outspends Santorum 7 to 1 and blasts him with negative adds.


.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

.

Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

,

Headline

.

Bulls Take Time Out

.

  • On the 10th day of the current short term rally stocks pulled back slightly in lower volume This predicted rally comes as no surprise to Investors411 readers.

Investors411 has been CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH for months.


  • We are in a sustained Central Bank (ECB, our Fed and Japan) manipulated. liquidity rally that began in October.
  • The long term trend remains (sorry for the repetition) - “Don’t fight the Central Banks – As long as they are dumping liquidity (printing money) to cover up losses anyone who has thought stocks would falter over the last three years has been on the wrong side of this trade.”

______________

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.

Old Faithful

McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -23.66. (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) NO technical pressure on  either bears and bulls = NEUTRAL
  • 6 month chart of MO. The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms. However, a short term look at the chart,  looks like we maybe heading down the next few days.  Would love to see a dip low enough (past-60) for a clear MO buy signal

.

______________

.

.

Canary in a Coal Mine

.

Investors411 uses two gauges to determine how well Central Banks are doing at manipulating stocks.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield up slightly to 4.90% (6:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.
  • The ECB is providing the liquidity to keep these bond prices low so the European canary still singing Ode to Joy.
  • Our USA canary in the coal mine - The US ten year T bill broke out of its trading range over a week. Now at a resistance level. Hardly something to worry about yet with at a low 2.37% yield. But rising rates is something to keep an eye on.

_____________

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Bottom Line – [No Change] “We reached a level in the US where traders/investors believe the economy might be catching hold or, if not, the Fed has our back. The economy catching hold would be truly remarkable since emerging market GDP’s are decreasing, Japan’s disasters and Europe’s recession.”

.

If the liquidity keeps flowing

stocks will keep growing


____________

.

AAPL

.

.

Mea CulpaObviously Investors411 should have spent more time talking about and endorsing AAPL over the last few months.

.

  • Short Term – Monday’s dividend announcement and stock buy back,means a whole new range of value investors, who love dividends and buybacks) are now willing to Buy The Dip. Exactly what happened at yesterday’s open.
  • Just a better and dominant player in so many computer related areas.
  • 700,000+ Chinese workers and 45,000 US workers make it a Chinese company that happens to have its headquarters in USA.
  • Long term trade barriers [25% tax on all US goods going to China and a 2.5% tax on Chinese goods coming here] insures Apples dominance in faster growing Chinese markets and here.
  • An over extended stock that a new supply of  ”value investors” are willing to buy.
  • It will probably take some significant fundamental to stop the bull run. But when this happens there will be a big hit because so many long (call positions) will panic and sell.

.

********************


.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 9, 2012

The Exodus

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Limbaugh Exodus

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“Take the bone out of you nose and call me back”

Limbaugh to Afro American woman caller

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  • Media Mattes reports of the 86 adds on the Limbaugh show yesterday 77 were public service announcements.
  • Only two of these adds were intentional. The other 7 have announced they are trying to get their adds off.
  • 50 advertisers have Dropped Limbaugh

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Video of Rush Limbaugh

Seventy Sexist Smears

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  • The Mays family that founded Clear Station – owner of Limbaugh show and other similar shows – are massive contributors to the Romney campaign
  • As mentioned previously on this blog  -  Bain, Romney‘s firm, along with another company own Clear Channel

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Misogynist and racist bullies, will proliferate unless WE take a stand


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International Woman’s Day

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Yesterday was the 101st International Women’s Day.

Lets take a look at the growing global impact of women economically

To my three outstanding daughters and life partner – I’m damn proud of everything you’ve accomplished. Most of all putting up with me.

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

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Headline

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Central Banks

Push Markets Higher

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  • They seemed to have kicked the can down the road again in Greece and not created a Lehman Brothers type event that would ripple though the unregulated casino of credit default swaps.
  • This has been accomplished by the ECB basically printing even more $$$ than our Fed- WSJ story
  • Today’s monthly jobless number should not be a major factor, unless it goes well outside expected results 8.3% unemployment and 200,000 jobs created.
  • Results Are – Rate flat at 8.3% and 227,000 jobs created. Both Jan & Feb revised up. A bit better than expected.
  • The long term trend remains (sorry for the repetition) - “Don’t fight the Central Banks - As long as they are dumping liquidity (printing money) to cover up losses anyone who has thought stocks would falter over the last three years has been on the wrong side of this trade.”

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Old Faithful

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Almost too good to be true. Old Faithful – The McCellan Oscillator – has worked yet again as an indicator of at least a short term bottom.

  • From Wednesday – “Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -87.13.  (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Oversold territory which starts at -60. OMG oversold starts at -90 =BULLISH” Today the MO has risen/stands at to -18.31. Just a tad bullish, but lots of room for either bears or bulls = NEUTRAL
  • From Wednesday - A three year chart of the MO shows it has dropped below -87.13 only 7 times. The lowest of those lows was @-140 after the end of QE 2 in April of 2011.
  • One of those 7 times the MO got below -80 over the last three years it did do a double dip a couple weeks later to a lower number. There is a significant chance of this happening again. (See Bottom Line below)

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Canary in A European Coal Mine

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  • Italian 10 year bond yield again this AM to 4.76% (7:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.
  • European canary still singing Ode to Joy.

Bottom Line – This was mentioned in the comments section yesterday.

Many many retail investors (long term holders) have left the market since the 2008 meltdown. Many of those that remain have waited for a break even point where they could get out without losing $$$. Major US indexes are near that point now so there should be some additional selling into rallies.

It would be healthy for markets to move sideways or take at least a 3 to 5% dip after a 20+% run higher since October. But stocks and economies are being manipulated by Central Banks and this might not happen.

If the liquidity keeps flowing stocks will keep growing

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 7, 2012

Movie Concept

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,


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A Movie Concept

By Yankee Bob

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I am disappointed to find out that Romney, thru Bain, thru Clear Channel is not only in a cozy relationship with Right Wing radio but, it could be argued that he is the most powerful man in it. Romney may no longer be running Bain but, he still is the most important voice there as the biggest shareholder, a board member and most every one there probably owes their job to him.
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Bain  controls Clearchannel.  Clearchannel brings us the agitated voices of Right and Fringe Right. Nothing  and nobody can survive there  if it offends the ultimate corporate head which is Romney.
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Hey- I have an idea for a movie.

Lets take a somewhat young and handsome  rich guy and run him for President.
We’ll bill him as an outsider even though he hails from a politically prominent and connected family. We will bill him as a competent business man even though he is a famous Vampire Capitalist and his biggest success, the Utah Olympics succeeded because of massive amounts of money from the fed gov.
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He secretly has control of the dominant air waves in the US. Therefore he can frame his own message, he can shape and attack public perception of his opponents. He can have his minions attack   and frame his opposition while he gets to stand in the shadows.
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How many people still believe the Birther nonsense, and how many still believe Obama is secretly a Muslim and has an agenda to make the US a  Socialist weak state. Mitt can have this drumbeat going every day without showing his hand.  He doesn’t even have to write the scripts.
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He only has to choose voices that will be friendly and useful to the cause of framing things the way that benefits Mitt.  Will mistakes be made? Will they overreach/ Sometimes but what a concept.
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Romney can pull the levers of the Air waves without public scrutiny that he  is doing so. What a concept. It is brilliant. It’s been exposed now but guess what?? None of the TV networks are covering the story None of them are talking about Rzomney’s influence thru Bain, thru Clearchannel.
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The whole debate and coverage of Rush this week is in terms of  how despicable his words were. It has not been about how Rush is a useful tool for Romney. Are the TV networks afraid to talk about it? How damaging would it be for Romney if they did?

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Rush Limbaugh

It’s not only women  Limbaugh dehumanizes –

heres a top ten list of his racist quotes ,

35  companies have dropped Limbaugh.

32 Companies according Media Matters. (16 hours ago)

One medium sized blog has picked up on the Bain/Limbaugh/Romney connection


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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Insight into how Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.

  • From yesterday –  Investors411 warned of “some other dark clouds on the horizon”. Technically a pull back (say 3 to 5%) would be healthy for the market. So would a flat consolidation period. It now looks more like we may get the pull back…Short term :-(
  • Brazil, a key emerging market, announce its GDP for 2011 at 2.7% vs 7.5% for 2010.  Expected, but not good news, especially because it came after China lowered GDP expectations. Their Central bank will probably do some money printing.
  • Lots of hair pulling over Greece, but Europe has had years to get ready for a possible Greek default. Maybe now, maybe later, but a default will come. The International banks, unlike the Greek people, will take the smallest of hair cuts over this.
  • The long term trend remains – “Don’t fight the Central Banks - As long as they are dumping liquidity (printing money) to cover up losses anyone who has thought stocks would falter over the last three years has been on the wrong side of this trade.”
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -87.13.  (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Oversold territory which starts at -60. OMG oversold starts at -90 =BULLISH
  • A three year chart of the MO shows it has dropped below -87.13 only 7 times. The lowest of those lows was @-140 after the end of QE 2 in April of 2011.

  • Italian 10 year bond yield fell  this AM to 4.97% (6:30 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.
  • All the trouble in Greece is NOT having much of an impact on Italian bond rates. Therefore, our canary in a European coal mine is still singing.

Bottom Line -  From yesterday “A buy the dip opportunity may be opening up for both long term investors and short term traders.”.

Investors411 has editorialized from Feb 13th through 29th that the world wide banking system is not capitalism, but a unregulated casino extraction system which is building a another  bubble.

But,

  • there is no sign that that bubble is ready to burst yet. Italian bonds at 4.97% and 10 year US Treasuries at 1.94% show a hell of a lot of stability.
  • Out MO technical index is starting to scream oversold = bullish
  • Oil is higher, but price juiced by Israel/Iran war fears
  • Our most significant bearish sign - The dollar has rallied significantly 3 of the last 5 days (dollar up = stocks down)
  • Slowdowns in China & Brazil have to hurt global growth and might not yet be fully priced into stocks.

This situation does not look as traumatic as the ending of QE 2 and the nuke disaster in Japan. The MO is already at -87 and the S&P is ONLY down 3% from its high.

Every time the MO got this low over the last 3 years (and as stated above it has fallen once to -140)( It also did a double dip that was a couple week apart at the end of QE 1 in 2010) you would have come out ahead weeks to a month later.

Therefore, buying this dip, looks like the right call today.

Buying a bigger dip in the MO a better call – if it happens

NB – Of course a technical trading pattern, like the one on the MO, can be right 7 times in a row and fail the 8th.

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Paul’s Corner

Well folks don’t blame me we had almost 3 weeks warning yesterday was coming! Back on Feb 15th we had a shot across the bow where the VIX flashed a warning sign. Read Paul’s Corner from Feb 16th.

Paul’s Corner

Wait you say, that’s 1 day out of a sea of green on the charts we have been enjoying since Jan 3! My good friend and mentor Ian Woodward publishes a great blog giving you verse and examples of what was going on and what to watch for. Ian has been warning for weeks the exit light was flashing.

As I have written about several times, Ian recently found a neat way to look at the market he calls it “%B*BW“, (Percent B Times Bandwidth). The folks over on the HGSI bulletin board named Ian’s new indicator the “Woody”, it’s very simple it takes the position of an index within its Bollinger Band and multiples it by the Band Width of the Bollinger Band. When it turns yellow from green watch out!

Well the Woody once again gave us fair warning and it looks like the Woody was correct again, look at the chart of the various indexes and the Woody.

Woody Index Chart

I can’t recall how many times I have looked at a day like yesterday and thought it’s just one day, tomorrow will be better (futures are up as I write this morning). Typically we will get an up day or two and then it drops even further and before you know it we are down 6 to 8%.

The following link is for a spread sheet I put up last evening and shows the condition of the various sectors in the market. Scroll up through this past year and see how long corrections took and what sectors led the way out.

Sector Spread Sheet

Ian Woodward’s Blog from last evening pretty well sums up what we were looking at these past few weeks, it’s a good lesson.

Ian’s Blog

As Ian suggests, yesterday we had a 5 bucket down day and a 5 bucket down day is NOT to be ignored or forgotten too soon!

Tums?


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 5, 2012

Hate Radio

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Who Owns

Rush Limbaugh?

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Mitt Romney???

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Carbonite CEO –

“Limbaugh overstepped any bounds bounds of decency”

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After 3 days of smearing a pro contraception Georgetown law student Sandra Fluke with diatribes and labels like “slut” and “prostitute…”

seven different sponsors suspended or eliminated backing for Limbaugh’s show.

Limbaugh, of course isn’t the only one in hate radio that slanders and and plays on the emotions. Remember the “hate radio” controversy surrounding the shooting of congresswomen Gabby Giffords and the slaughter of 6 innocent people?

We desperately need to do something about the vitriolic rhetoric that is being used to tear this nation apart.

Some major media outlets like NBC & CBS have suspended radio hosts for their “overstepping any bounds of decency” from racial slurs, to libelous  accusations, to attacks against women no matter what side of the political spectrum they were on.

But their is one company Clear Channel Communications that broadcasts Rush Limbaugh, the highest rated radio show, and so many more like him – Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage  etc. – that refuses to act.

Back in 2006

Bain Capital and a partner

Bought out Clear Channel

Romney At Bain

  • Bain, of course, is the firm Mitt Romney used to run.
  • Bain gives Romney millions each year as part of his golden parachute
  • Bain executives are million dollar donors to his campaign.
  • Since 2006 Bain, Romney’s Firm, has been a silent owner of the largest “hate radio” network in America.

Romney called what Limbaugh did “inappropriate.” Inappropriate is a term you use when you eat steak with your salad folk.

Obviously, Romney does not own Limbaugh’s show, but their are some clear connections

Imagine someone slandering your partner, daughter, grand daughter, on the biggest radio show in the nation with the words like “slut” and “prostitute” until sponsors dropped the show. Limbaugh issued a weak apology in writing on his blog.

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Do you think Romney’s Bain capital

should suspend Limbaugh?

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Investors411 readers now have the hidden story

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Romney’s former company, Bain with a partner

is running the largest hate radio network

in America.

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PS – Kudos to Popeye & CDB and many who took action against against Limbaugh. (see comments section of blog)

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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Insight into How Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.


  • Major Piece of BAD News this AM – China cuts GDP forecast from 8.0 to 7.5  Story
  • Monthly employment report will be a key metric this week.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -37.65. 50 Day Moving Average at @+21 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Close to oversold territory = NEUTRAL
  • If you look just at the chat pattern of the MO it is clearly bearish

  • Italian 10 year bond yield almost flat today at 4.91% (8:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.

Bottom LineThe news of the cut in China’s GDP is trouble, but not entirely unexpected. The dollar’s reversal (moving higher) could be the start of a negative trend for stocks. So now besides higher oil prices due to Iran war mongering, two other dark clouds have emerged.

We are starting to get some across markets and fundamental negative signals, yet the Central Banks pouring liquidity into the USA and Europe has trumped these moves in the past.

So we note the clouds, but still go with the trend.

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Paul’s Corner


The Dow is 13,000, the Nasdaq is almost 3,000 the S&P 500 1400, and all is well with the market? Looks that way but if you look at the numbers, the indexes are being carried by the big cap stocks like AAPL and the small cap growth stocks are headed to the woodshed.

One of the ways I look at the health of the market is to see how many stocks in the S&P 1500 are above and below the middle of their Bollinger Band. When the market is healthy and in a good bull run we usually see 80%  of the 1500 above the middle of the Bollinger Band or “>0.5” and obviously 20% below “<0.5”.

During January when the market was moving we had many days with the ratio 80:20.  During February this ratio started to turn over and this past week we finished with a 37:64 ratio, which means 64% of the stocks in the S&P 1500 are below the middle of the Bollinger Band. This suggests a deteriorating market.

So if the numbers are so bad, why are the averages so good? Well if we look at the Nasdaq 100, the big cap fellers like AAPL, the current %B ratio is currently 60:40. This shows 60% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 above the middle of the BB and they are holding the indexes up.

Another place to peek, let’s look at the Russell 2000, the small cap stocks. As of Fridays close the RUT had a ratio of 22:78, that’s right 78% or 1560 of the stocks in the index of 2000 were below 0.5 or middle of their Bollinger Band.

Well it looks like the “money” is flowing into the big caps and out of the small caps. If all of the money is flowing into the big caps, when will the “supply” of money run out and the big boys head for the hills? That’s the big question and I sure don’t know, perhaps Barr knows? JS do you know? [great question - editor]

My good friend Ian Woodward put up a great blog Saturday evening  where he looks at the market and suggests we are walking on pins and needles.

Take a look: LINK

Ian goes into great detail as to what he sees in the market and has a good chart showing how the %B of the S&P 1500 has decayed. Lot’s of mumbo jumbo, but it’s all good stuff as they say.

Jeffrey Scott an HGSI user is hosting an online webinar this Wednesday evening. It looks like we will be discussing short candidates. Join in, it’s a free webinar and Jeff always does a great job.

Registration Web Link: LINK

Oh, one last item, Your Stock List as of Friday had a ratio of 63:38, that’s pretty good!

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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