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Turning on the Light

So many spend so much time analyzing darkness instead of just turning on the light

One such organization that turns on lights for Cancer patients is

First Descents

“Cancer taught me about death and First Desccnts taught me how to live.”

From personal experience (a daughter who is a cancer survivor & she took me to one of their camps) I can’t begin to tell you in words the impact this organization has on the lives of everyone involved.

Yea I hope you explore their site and get involved. But even more I hope that YOU have the courage to make your first descent into any new life enhancing challenge. Turn on a light.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.76%	Down
NASDQ	-0.89%	Down
S&P 500	-0.81%	Down
Russell 2000	-1.55%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• Debt crisis in Europe is expanding. Interest rate on Greek 2 year bond rocketed to high of 35.19% yesterday. How is Greece ever going to be able to pay this back?  Most talking about major problems in Italy whose banks and bonds got toasted yesterday. Real problem –   European banks still make bets on bundles of securities (credit default swaps) You tend to cringe each AM as the rates for these CDS’s move higher.

• The odds of the British PM staying in office over the Rupert Murdoch scandal went from 100 to 1 to 8 to 1 overnight.

• An editorial that turns on some lights from Dylan Ratigan – The Real Debt Deal

• Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically to -47.70 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) We’re  somewhat oversold now, but momentum shows there’s probably more to come.= Neutral/Bullish

• $USD The Dollar rose +0.48% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range with slight, but erratic momentum for dollar bulls, For stocks= Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves – -48 on the MO, is usually a figure that oversold stocks bounce higher from. But how high and far is up to the the fundamentals of Europe and US debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• May 20th forecast still in effect.

• It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki dance over the debt will end. Yesterday’s blog (click on date in calender at top right of blog) contained a tea leaves reading of what and why.

• No asset class, with the possible exception of gold or shorting equities, could come out of this unscathed. Example – Cash – worse case senerio - US defaults – Dollar implodes your US greenbacks become toilet paper. Inflation soars and your cash becomes burnt toilet paper. Of course, other asset classes will probably do worse.

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Paul’s Corner

Hello world, it’s July 19 and pre market futures are up, let’s RUMBLE!

Eh excuse me! After a rotten day yesterday you actually expect us to believe it’s going to be a good day in the market you say?

Well that’s just it, at the moment this is a news driven market and it’s dangerous to play in the market with your grand children’s inheritance. A stock or two at the moment Ok, but please don’t sink your cash hoard into the market quite yet. Ian Woodward has just posted another gem of a blog and it’s worth the read. It’s title “Stock Market Spooked: Send In The Clowns” sums it up nicely!

LINK

My favorite HGSI “High Demand Search” for July 18 shows the following top three groups had the action yesterday:

Gold (18.00%, 18 securities)

• Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
• Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV)
• AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)
• Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
• Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN)
• Coeur D’Alene Mines Corporat (CDE)
• Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)
• Goldcorp  Inc. (GG)
• IAMGold Corporation (IAG)
• Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
• Minefinders  Ltd. (MFN)
• New Gold  Inc. (NGD)
• Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)
• Novagold Resources  Inc. (NG)
• Randgold Resources  Ltd. (GOLD)
• Richmont Mines  Inc. (RIC)
• Royal Gold  Inc. (RGLD)
• Yamana Gold  Inc. (AUY)

Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods (9.00%, 9 securities)

• Carter’s  Inc. (CRI)
• Coach  Inc. (COH)
• Fossil  Inc. (FOSL)
• Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)
• Lululemon Athletica  Inc. (LULU)
• PVH Corp (PVH)
• Under Armour  Inc. (UA)
• VF Corporation (VFC)
• Warnaco Group  Inc. (WRC)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (9.00%, 9 securities)

• Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP)
• Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd. (EXXI)
• EQT Corp. (EQT)
• EV Energy Partner LP (EVEP)
• Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)
• Northern Oil & Gas  Inc. (NOG)
• Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
• W&T Offshore  Inc. (WTI)
• Whiting Petroleum Corporatio (WLL)

It’s interesting we have these groups as the top three groups once again, Gold, High End Retailers and O&G Exploration. It’s almost like a broken record. These groups keep coming to the top of the list. Perhaps the market is trying to tell us where to place your bet!

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

GLD & SLV – Shouda, Woulda, Coulda – I did not buy into any of the gold or silver ETF’s yesterday. Waiting for a dip is like waiting for Godot. Will try again today.

Disclaimer - Personally I own a group of dividend stocks including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and some general ETF’s that track market indexes. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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“The Toxic Spider”

Rupert Murdoch’s “News” empire is under siege.

The man who is most responsible for tuning news into its vilest and lowest common denominator –  sensationalism, fear mongering, bias, hatred, manipulation, rigid partisanship etc. is embroiled in a worldwide scandal.

The steady stream of influence peddling, bribery, hacked emails of parents of Iraq vets to kidnap victims that is coming to light  is exposing the greed based empire for what it is – A toxic media spiderweb  from Fox News & The WSJ to the London Tabloids.

Many in the Murdoch empire have already resigned and been arrested  the Head of Scotland Yard has also reigned in wake of the scandal. Th FBI is now investigating in the USA.

More sources - Bloomberg/Businessweek, John Nichols/The Nation, & David Carr/NYT

Murdoch empire has been able for decades to throw millions at anyone who questioned their ethics or through the empire’s news machine crush his opponent. Perhaps this time the empire will spend billions to make it all go away.

As one editorialist put it when this is all over the collectve intelligence of the english speaking world may be raised by a few IQ points

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.34	Up
NASDQ	+0.98	Down
S&P 500	+0.56	Flat
Russell 2000	+0.66	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• GOOG’s earnings results led bulls on Friday. Earnings week in full force this week, but every investors is looking over their shoulder about negative consequences of defaulting.

• The High Frequency Traders and major institutions dominate and manipulate US equity trades. HFT, manipulators have formed a lobbying group to clean up their image. Like most lobbying groups, this is supposes to make us sheep feel good about the wolves circling the flock.

• Technically, the price charts of major US indexes looks like they may be building a bearish head and shoulders pattern. If support breaks, we could see some roasting and toasting of US equities,

• Two of our successful forecasting tools listed below

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically last week  from OMG overbought to neutral. -11.80 Lots of wiggle room for equities to go higher and lower.  = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar had a series of hyper interday swings last week. -0.17% Friday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Prices tried and failed to break out to new five month highs. (see link to chart) The failure creates a strong resistance level and is bearish for the dollar in the long term  and therefore bullish for stocks. For stocks= Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves – From a week+ ago – Shorter term  - OMG oversold levels will be reached in any rally.  This put big pressure on rally to let off some steam. We did more than let off some steam from overbought conditions. Investors started to worry about US and European debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• May 2oth forecast still in effect.

• From Last blog Post on 7/6 – The key is to watch for is when Wall Street prices start to react negatively to the debt crisis. Longer term value  investors are taking necessary precautions to protect their portfolio due to the debt problems in Europe and the USA.

• Reading Tea Leaves – I think the wealthy oligarchy that manipulates and makes money off US & other markets will not let the USA default on its debt. They to have too much to loose. On the other hand, there are many on the far right that feel they would benefit from the economic chaos that would occur.

• Fear usually trumps greed, but when you drive a speeding car to the edge of a cliff and step on the breaks at the last second it may be too late to matter.

We are entering uncharted waters where even holding cash may turn into a loosing position.

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Your Stock List

Repeat from last week

Paul has published to a spreadsheet of YSL #4 in the comments section of the blog.

Like the past 3 YSL’s is beat the S&P 500 our benchmark S&P 500 again, but this time our gains were meager in comparison to the other three YOUR Stock Lists.

A new YSL is under construction. If You are on the email List send in your choices to me this week.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a bigger hit.

GLD & SLV - Gold has broken out to a new high and will probably surge higher today.  Silver should follow. Reasons for this is instability in Europe and US (debt crisis) Investors are rushing into these safer havens (especially gold) in anticipation of problems getting worse. I will probably add SLV to Investors411 portfolio or for those that can tolerate higher risk AGQ (ETF that is double Silver) (Warning on AGQ – it is tied to London trading exchange not US – see me if you want more on this)

I’d prefer to add GLD or DGP (double gold ETF) but fear is will open too high and would prefer a dip.

Long term Investors - GLD is by far the #1 investment (from over 20) that we have held in the non profit I’m Treasurer of. We have held a position in GLD for over 6 years.

Disclaimer - Personally I own a group of dividend stocks including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and some general ETF’s that track market indexes. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

Obviously, day and swing traders are subject to some potential mega moves ahead in the market. Your stops may get busted and if you hold an issue overnight there is a chance that major US indexes could move dramatically higher or lower.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Morally Ugly

The Brietbart/Sherrod controversy is perhaps one of the most morally ugly examples of what passes for news in America. Brietbart. a major right wing news source/blogger produced a snippet of a speech given by a relatively minor black Obama administration official, Sherrod, supposedly proving she was a racist against whites.

The vast echo chamber of FOX news (From Glenn Beck to owner Rupert Murdoch) & right wing media who is desperately truing to prove Obama is a racist splashed the story all over the media.

Shirley Sherrod after getting hammered 24/7 by the right wing & American media, was asked to resign (thrown under the bus) by Obama administration who along with the FOX & company thought this would distract for the big Financial Regulatory Bill signing.

Turn out when the whole speech is played there is no anti white racism and the farmer  Roger Spooner who is the supposed focus of Sherrod’s racism says -

No way in the world. No way. No way. I don’t even want to talk about it. It don’t make sense. She was just so nice to us as – she didn’t – there wasn’t no – there wasn’t no racism attitude at all in it. Heck no. … They don’t know what they’re talking about,”

The Glenn Beck, Rupert Murdoch tie above was intentional. Because it ties big business with those that spew unfounded hatred. They do this kind of fear mongering because it sells and produces results – both politically and monetarily.

When the Republican Congressman jumped up in the Obama State of the union and shouted “YOU LIE” he was overwhelmed with donations. Like the congressman, Brietbart whose actions are morally reprehensible will flourish.

The lemming like American media and this time the White House rushed to echo another right wing smear. When the truth comes out you hear almost nothing from Drudge to FOX on their rush to judgement. There is one word to describe our right wing, fear mongering hate filled media – Disgrace

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-1.07%	up
NASDQ	-1.58%	up
S&P 500	-1.28%	up
Russell 2000	-1.86%	-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

How markets react to news is the key to forecasting direction. APPL is the “darling of HFT/BlackBox traders.” As Paul R concluded yesterday (see comments section) AAPL was going nowhere despite a great earnings report. Good analysis. This was probably due to the overbought (MO near 50 yesterday) nature of the market.

So along comes Ben Bernanke speaking in front of congress and traders focus on the worst of what he has to say = Bearish

US markets fell in increased average volume = Bearish

Mr Softy MSFT reports after bell today

Under traditional circumstances, you’d figure if the 800 lbs gorilla, AAPL, can’t move markets higher then nothing in future earnings reports this month will push stocks up. But with HFT’s dominating trading anything goes.= ??????

Bottom Line = Investors411 is far more focused on overbought/oversold (MO) levels than daily chatter.

Significant Indexes-

• McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +25.52 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. = NEUTRAL
• US Dollar –  The dollar  rose a significant +0.79% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] The dollar is important  to stocks – Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The Black Box traders, have used the inverse relationship of the dollar as a key part of their trading system. Earnings have trumped this indicator for now, but yesterday it looks like this inverse relationship  trumped earnings.  = NEUTRAL
• BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also good proxy of China.) BDI was in free fall from a high of @4200 to 1700 . This is a huge-60% drop in 8 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a 3 year chart of BDI for context.  A small but important four day rally indicates the BDI seems to have found a bottom — a short term bullish sign. BDI now at 1782 Fundamentally the-58% drop is very BEARISH

Reading Tea Leaves-

Bummer, Just when the MO shows US indexes are almost overbought enough to put the odds of going short (using ETF’s that short major US indexes) more in our favor, the MO falls back into Neutral territory.

Several of you have asked about YOUR stock list. – If/when the MO goes negative (below zero) we should start putting it back together. We will use the old list as the foundation. One major difference this time – Let’s look for more liquid stocks, because those are the stocks that get juiced by High Frequency Trades. This also means that the higher beta stocks (more volatile) are apt to do even better.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Updated over weekends Investors411 holds ONE position in SH at this time

As the MO approaches oversold territory will again consider ETF’s that short the market.

Strategy - The same as before - If/as US major indexes become more overbought the more ETF’s that sort the market will be purchased. Starting out with SH. Then the higher above 60 the MO goes, the more SDS (200% short the S&P 500) and other even 300% short ETF’s will be used the higher the MO goes.  See POSITIONS section at top of blog for more.