Photo of Lake in Iran

War In Iran?

Is the US already in an undeclared war in Iran?

• Latest – US drone downed in Iran

• Stuxnet/Conflicker worm computer virus attacks Iran nuclear facilities.

• Assassination (bombing) kills top Iranian nuclear scientists

• Other assassination attempts?

• Plot to kill Saudi ambassador in US linked to Iran

Investors411 has reported in the past that Obama is 10 times more likely to use drones in targeted assassinations than Bush.

This sure looks at least like a cold war. Will it get hot? Betting odds from Intrade on an overt US and/or Israel air strike on Iran by June 2012 = 30%

Payroll Tax Cut

Obama makes case for extending Payroll tax cuts for middle class Americans. Most Republicans oppose this. Romney, of course is flip flopping. Taxes would increase by @ $1000 for most middle class families. LINK to story

Presidential Poll Numbers

Most folks realize Newt Gingrich is up in the polls for Republican Presidential nomination. Voting starts in a month. In the first four voting states Romney is moving in the opposite direction. LINK to story. – Poll compilation.

Newt’s rise has been too meteoric, but this is also a significant sign that Romney may be in trouble.

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STOCKS

The Reality

At the end of the year more conservative fund managers (mutual, hedge 401k managers) have to INVEST their money or explain to INVESTORS why their $$$ are earning next to nothing in a money market account.

For the last four+ months worldwide equities have been in turmoil. These conservative fund mangers hate high risk often measured by the VIX (see chart) As you can see the VIX has basically been above 30 for 4 months and recently dropped below.

The below 3o is kind of an all clear signal, and these conservative investors are sitting on 4 months worth of money.

Therefore – There’s a strong possibility we’ll see Santa Clause.

Of course, some strong fundamental factor can  disable Santa’s sleigh.

Yesterday Standard and Poors (a major rating agency) did put most of Europe on “negative credit watch” for a downgrade. Not enough to stop Santa but  a series of events like this my put the sleigh out of commission.

Strong correlation between Europe and US stock opening price

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The End of Men

Hanna Rosen has shaken some of the Insiders (see below) to the core with a culture clash gem/editorial – The End of Men - Edited into bullet points below

• “Earlier this year, women became the majority of the workforce for the first time in U.S. history.
• Most managers are now women too.
• And for every two men who get a college degree this year, three women will do the same.

• For years, women’s progress has been cast as a struggle for equality. But what if equality isn’t the end point? What if modern, postindustrial society is simply better suited to women? A report on the unprecedented role reversal now under way— and its vast cultural consequences….”

Men may be threatened by this so I suggest only women check out the video presentation Rosen writes for the Atlantic where you can find the whole editorial

Insiders and Outsiders

From The Library of Economics Liberty an absolutely fascinating piece on  how our government works. In goes into depth on The Symbolic Uses of Politics, by Murray Edelman. Here’s some quotes on Arnold King’s review of Edelman’s work

Edelman divided the political sphere into insiders and outsiders (Kling’s terms). Insiders are basically special interests: small in number but well organized and with specific goals. Outsiders, or the “unorganized masses,” are the rest of us: we have some interests, but we are poorly organized to pursue them and therefore are generally unsuccessful. In particular, Outsiders suffer from poor and limited information, and therefore are especially susceptible to political symbols.

“Given these differences, the Insiders use overt political dramas as symbols that placate the masses while using covert political activity to plunder them. What we would now call rent-seeking succeeds because Outsiders are dazzled by the symbols while Insiders grab the substance.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.48%	up
NASDQ	+0.68%	down
S&P 500	+0.60%	down
Russell 2000	+1.05%	-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Typical melt up in light/abysmal volume. Nothing out of ordinary, especially in holiday week
• As long as the Fed is buying bonds and the primary banks (wink wink) deploy that money low trading days of the holiday season should see some more  melt ups.
• Now Fed is not just stimulating USA, but seems to be helping Europeans Oh, is there going to be a war between Bernanke & Ron Paul in a month or two.
• What’s up in fundamentals for today – GDP and more
• Interesting eye candy – The 25 best and worst performing stocks since Lehman’s went belly up.
• All major indexes at new highs for the year.

Reading The Tea Leaves -

The BDI is not an index many analysts watch. But it is very relevant to world trade and especially emerging markets. When it is on the rise emerging markets are almost always outperforming. (see Monday’s Investors411 for more). BDI at 1886 with major support at 1700. This is the dark cloud on the horizon.

Major indexes are pretty far above their 50DMA indicating we are close to oversold. Do not expect any huge moves.

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Yesterday Paul R came up with this great investing tool that every trader/investor should consider before buying/selling. Here’s the post from the comments section of the blog. Check out yesterday’s comments for more. –

Take a look at the following stock charting site.

http://www.monest.net/tools/st…

It has a very neat charting function where you can plot the large volume trade/players against the small volume trade/players.

See diagram:

http://people.delphiforums.com…

Select the indicator shown on the upper right of the chart, enter your stock symbol on the upper left and draw the chart. Look at the bottom of the chart to see large vs. small players.

As you can see on the chart TRW has seen large trades taper off while the small trades increased. The thinking is, be careful of a stock when large volume trades are falling while small volume trades are increasing.

Take a look at your favorite stocks.

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Positions

• EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
• #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) -
• #2 UWM
• EUO – (double short the EURO currency) Bought Friday at 20.76

A Santa Clause rally for all our stock positions is in progress.

UWM - Up +2.23% yesterday. All this week and most day for over a month this ETF that Investors411 has a double position in has outperformed other major indexes.

EEM - Up +1.47% yesterday. Reason for yesterday’s outperformance was that it’s been under performing for weeks and therefore bounced higher. Again under performing major US markets over last month considering taking profits on last 1/2. Will place the 2% trailing stop loss on this ETF today

EUO - Up +0.47% yesterday Has started out in the green up almost 3%. Will take profits on 1/2 this trade if it reaches 5% Stop placed at what it was bough for.

Your Stock List #3 – 14 of the 16 stocks in YSL moved higher yesterday. A couple had some very song moves.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Guest Editorial – A Call to Arms

Let’s march on Washington! – By Bob Sadinsky

What good does it do to keep calling or writing to your spineless legislators! For decades now starting with the Vietnam War,public opinion has been aligned with stated Democratic positions but the GOP with help from ConservaDems has thwarted  Progressive issues. The GOP has fought tooth and nail to prevent,Unionism,the 8 hour work day,overtime, Equal pay for equal work.  They fought to deny health insurance for decades and seat belts and mining regulations. They defanged OSHA and the EPA and beat back the ERA! They fought against Medicare and Social Security,viciously. Nixon actually ran as a peace candidate for his second term. He promised to end the war and then he tried to obliterate SouthEast Asia and only ended the war when we had actually lost.

The GOP revisionists today  like,the swiftboaters ,say we lost because we lacked the political will to win. They can’t answer simple questions like what was our strategic interest there and why did you ask Johnny to fight and to die there?  Kerry tried to do that and the press allowed the swiftboaters to make the real War Hero look like a wimp  and a traitor next to Bush and Cheney,the draft dodgers. No one can answer that today about Afghanistan or Iraq yet we are again expanding an unpopular war! The GOP has been so wrong for so long,it’s amazing they are still around.

Unless it violates someone’s rights,in a democracy like ours,the public sentiment of the majority should rule! It doesn’t!! Oh,I’m wrong. If you have enough money to spend you can legislate to strip a hated minority of their basic human rights under the Bill of Rights! Today it’s Gays. Tomorrow,it’s you!

Bush and Cheney declared you are with us or against us and proceeded to muzzle our rights. They demonized the Press. The Right Wing Liberals demonize Liberalism and Progressives. Their ability to turn the US into a Fascist State,….grows. I shudder to think what will happen when the Dems lose Congress the next time. I don’t think the Dems will be left with the ability to filibuster to prevent draconian measures.

Progressives and Liberals have to take to the streets or we will be marginalized and swept aside! Use your voices before we lose the ability to do so.

Bob, an old friend and fellow artist, is a frequent critic/commentor to Investors411. Read his comments on right hand side of blog.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that only got 1 recommendation. I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

• MVIS – Microvision Inc. – This stock has gone all the way from below 1 in March to above 5 and has settled at just above 3. This is exactly where its 200 day moving average support line is. MVIS (laser projection devices for head mounted displays & hand held devices) is at its inflection point and I don’t know enough about the fundamentals to even make a guess on their future. However technically there has recently been one strong volume rally day and that’s bullish.
• SEED – Origin Agritech LTD – Talk about shooting up. SEED, a top player in the seed industry in China went from 5 to 14 in late Nov. in truly massive volume on mews of its genetically modified corn being approved in China. It has  now settled at @10. Really tempting buy the dip opportunity. Still a long way from 50 day moving average at @7.5. This stock often mentioned with another – FEED
• NVS – Novartis – Drug maker that Investors411 owned.  The swine flu added to the value of this European stock. We got out at the high and NVS dropped and is now flat. Rising dollar may be hurting the stock price since this is a European company. Done for now – too many other fish in the sea.
• FCX – Freeport McMoran – Copper and Gold – Basically a commodity or China play. Copper and Gold supplier. This big company has outperformed China and gold. I’d rather own the ETF that tracks copper, but a decent play. Right now it has retreated from high and forming a base.
  

Some of the stocks from yesterday and today may be hidden gems for traders. Tomorrow – The stocks that got more than 1 vote

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.50%	down
NASDQ	+0.67%	down
S&P500	+0.36%	down
Russell2000-	+0.81%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks rose for the second day in a row despite a rising dollar. Bullish news for stocks despite weak volume. Traders, more and more, look like they are coming around to the belief that we will have a V shaped recovery in the USA.  Emerging markets in the shorter term led the world. Now the USA seems to be the locomotive.

Caution – These are not big games and especially VOLUME is weak. However, the cumulative move is bullish especially for USA. Short term bullish move here will positively impact world.

McClellan Oscillator at +31 (“a bit overbought” – see below) gives us some wiggle room for stocks to move higher before we reach overbought levels of +60 = Santa Clause Rally caps

A Santa Clause Rally strictly defined is the period after Xmas till 2 days into New Year, Historically S&P 500 is up 1.5% in this period since 1960

NB – There is an important distinction between short term traders and long term investors

FEARLESS FORECAST – Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade & China ). -91 yesterday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart) Right now the BDI is in free fall and this is not good for emerging markets & especially China. World trade is decelerating as the dollar rises. Perhaps a new link between the rising dollar and falling BDI is establishing itself.  (see 8/18 explanation  of fundamentals behind falling dollar)

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now breaking down as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.26% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $78.28 . The dollar is breaking down as a predictor of stock movement. Stocks are moving higher on a stronger dollar. The second day in a row, = Bullish for stocks

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +31,30 This is a bit Overbought Position. We have a ways to go till we reach overbought (+60). This means rally could continue for at least a few more days.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+ =  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Big Mistake – Back on 12/8 (click on calendar date on top right of blog and scroll down) Investors411 announced to buy IWM & UWM (@2x what the IWM does). For some reason (too busy with other stuff) I never pulled the trigger on this trade. Big Mistake! Both indexes track small cap stocks and the UWM is up 10%+ & IWM 5%+ .

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move. Traders (not investors) may be able squeeze in a quick trade on the above UWM or IWM if we get a short dip.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

A Santa Clause Rally for stocks?

YOUR Questions on Health Care

The NYT has come out with its editorial supporting the Senate Health Care Bill. You may disagree with the Times or Nate Silver (See Bob Sadinsky’s comments on right of blog)  but they have the facts. They do omit some of the downside and you can post your objections in the comments section. New York Times takes a clear position – ” A Bill Well Worth Passing “ LINK

YOUR questions (see D’s comments onside of blog)

• “Cadillac” Plans – These are the plans that cover virtually everything and have (almost) no co pays. I believe they are above $8,500 a year for an individual & $23,500 for a family. They are going to get taxed.
• Cuts in Medicare – There is fraud and waste in medicare. An NPR debate on this revealed the following on home health care providers. Obviously home health care saves money  because it often prevents nursing home stays. Example(s) There are now @ 10,000 home health care companies – 800 alone sprang up in Houston About 1/2 of all insulin injections in homes (3 times a day) are now done in Dade County Florida. 1/2 of insulin dependent elderly or disabled diabetics don’t live there. These major anomalies show that some are CHEATING the system. The list went on.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that only got 1 recommendation.

• HMIN Hotel Inns And Hotels Management – Discount hotels in China – China is growing and this is a discount hotel chain that’s growing faster. Chart shows after a rally HMIN has formed a base. If/when FXI moves higher HMIN should do even better. On chart notice all the big volume spikes on up days = bullish
  
• CAAS China Automotive Systems – Another small cap China stock. Remember the Chinese now buy more cars than Americans. Small caps usually outperform in any rally. This chart is pulling back to its 5o day moving average and that is a buy the dip opportunity.
• VPRT Vistaprint - You happened to picked the company that does my business card’s.  My wife thinks they are the best deal out there. Chart shows and a rising blue line (50 day moving average) and that’s always good. A recent dip makes it a buy the dip opportunity. Volume getting weaker is not a good sign.
  
• SHOO Steve Madden – Shoes – Apparent the shoes to buy right now. Again lots of those green volume spike bars on chart. This shows some institutions are buying
• FSLR . First Solar – Solar technology and building a huge plant in Mongolia (China) Just about every analyst who follows alternative energy has something to say about FSLR. Chart not in clear upward trend as above 4 stocks. Perhaps a good buy because of China connection but right now weak technically
• GE - General Electric Industrial giant – Basically, so big it follows US markets. Chart shows consolidation pattern right now. Under performing US markets right now.
  

Ran out of time – more tomorrow – For those of you who love the danger of individual stock picks the top 4 should do well if markets move higher.

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.83%	down
NASDQ	+1.28%	down
S&P500	+1.05%	down
Russell2000-	+1.32%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks are rising despite a rising dollar. We almost had a significant rise in both the dollar (+0.41% ) and a barely significant (above 1.00% ) rise inmost major stock indexes. Volume decreased.  Yes this a market that is NOT making new highs (NASDQ & S&P 500) in GROWING volume.  That’s troubling and indicates an expanding bubble – unless we can grow volume.  However the relationship between the dollar and stocks is breaking down in a positive manner for stocks. They are both RISING = Bullish for stocks

McClellan Oscillator at +25 (see below) gives us some wiggle room for stocks to move higher before we reach overbought levels of +60 = Santa Clause Rally caps

FEARLESS FORECAST – Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade& China) . -104 yesterday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart)

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.41% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.75 . 

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +25.17 This is a little Overbought Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+ =  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Positions section of blog was updated over weekend.  44+% Invested in stocks -

• FXI (China) 18% (selling 6% into any rally – 24- 6=18% – see Friday’s update)Still holding on
  
• EWZ (Brazil 16%)
• MOO (agriculture (10)%

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH