Meltdown!?

NYT has always been the #1 source for accurate news, Headline /story on Japan – Japan Says 2nd Reactor May Have Ruptured With Radioactive Release

Kyoto news agency – quoting the defense minister. A helicopter was unable to drop water to cool the No.3 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant probably because of the high radiation. This sure looks like a latch ditch effort to avoid some sort of meltdown.

Bahrain/Libya/Saudi Arabia

Three thugocracies dominate these countries. All involves in suppressing democracy.   Saudi Arabia has invaded Bahrain thugocracy to help out its oil rich dictator. In fact the Bahrain invasion has ignited Shia vs Sunni passions in Iraq

Yankee Bob has brought up the concept of  Where’s Obama? Democracy, freedom and justice are on the line.  What concrete action is he taking.?He talks the talk but is he walking the walk?  Where is the knight in shining armor? Is he acting to protect the people or fellow members of the ruling oligarchies?

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-1.15%	up
NASDQ	-1.25%	up
S&P 500	-1,12%	up
Russell 2000	-0.86%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan is the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Japan’s stock market closed up 5% overnight. This was due to $325 billion (3 day total) worth of market manipulating liquidity introduce by their Central Bank,

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Chart for last three weeks still clearly bearish for dollar.    Flat yesterday -o,o2% Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar directly above a support level. = Neutral.
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to--68.56. Clearly oversold, but news from Japan trumps everything =Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Japan reactor developments trump all technical aspects of the market

• Oil prices are falling because the thugocracies (dictators) in Libya and Saudi Arabia reasserting their control over region. - Bullish
• MO at oversold levels – Bullish
• Fed pomo market manipulation still happening – Bullish

If Japan nuclear problem shows improvement you’d see one hell of a snap back rally.

Bottom Line - Investors fear a double dip recession. If things do get worse all it means is more Fed liquidity which should drive stocks higher. Warning – if events get too extreme then this will trump everything.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down – Now down below $100.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL -
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

NOTHING Long Term UNDER CONSIDERATION AT THIS TIME -Impossible to predict events in Japan.

However, short term, liquidity/manipulated driven rally is overdue. Good for a play with leveraged ETF’s.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Japan Tsunami/Earthquake video

If you haven’t seen the horrific tsunami/earthquake video it yet - LINK

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Financial/Fed Tsunami of Liquidity

Chart by John Lohman in larger form -LINK

Some complex remarks and charts - Translation – the positive impact the Fed POMO has on US stocks and worries over long term damaging effects on US economy

Yankee Bob is Back, But Where’s Obama?

Yankee Bob is back with another editorial in the comments section of the blog. Many of you have replied. Others commented on stocks with some valuable investment concepts. See Bob’s – “Where’s Obama” (scroll down for this and all other comments from yesterday)

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-1.87%	up
NASDQ	-1.84%	up
S&P 500	-1.89%	up
Russell 2000	-2.64%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• A major meltdown in increased volume. For Months increased volume on down days and light volume on up days was an established pattern, because of the liquidity tsunami.
• For so many months the Fed has been able to manipulate stocks higher in light volume through QE2. Nothing could shake this pattern until we started having oil price over $100 a barrel
• A second important fundamental was the realization that the Fed POMO program (QE2) ends June 30th and people like Bond King Bill Gross front running this withdrawal of funds from Treasuries.
• Is the goose that lays those golden manipulated stock market eggs (low volume rallies) cooked? – See below for answer?
• Today is a confirmation day for yesterday’s move.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar has changed direction. Up  a significant +0.72 % yesterday. Chart for last three weeks still clearly bearish for dollar.   Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index and its trumping the dollar see below For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -44.59 Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. This was broken yesterday.  The short term  MO Stocks outlook = Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

From Earlier this week - Today’s the big day - For three months the bulls have built a strong support level at -30 on the MO. Each time it has been approached it has held. We are just 2 points away. The bears have a big battering ram - oil prices over $100+ for an extended period of time.  The bears battering ram worked and the Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger warning, unfortunately has come true. The “magic” of the -30 level on the MO has evaporated and support levels have fallen.

Short Term – The impact of the Japan quake/tsunami (see video at link), no Fed POMO today, Our top spy says Ka Daffy will win. and “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arab all have potential negative impact today.

Long term – We still have 3+ month of QE2 left. If it looks like 100+ dollar oil and other factors are creating a possible double dip recession in investors minds.  Get ready for a bubble building QE3. Any announcement that leans this way is going to pump stocks.

Perhaps the end result is going to be the Fed will have to keep buying treasuries to stabilize US economy. Stocks should again benefit from this, but at best it looks like a Japanese type of recovery in the USA economically. (lots more later) Big dangers of inflation & deflation. with Fed monetizing so much debt.

Special Note - Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL at long as oil prices keep rising above $100+. or markets confirm yesterday’s fall.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Took a hit yesterday as it approached former high.

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Positions

May buy the dip near of the day

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver SLV and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Special Note - Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL -if oil prices remain above $100+ a barrel for a significant amount of time and/or keep rising.

Bush/Obama holding hands with world’s richest totalitarian

Totalitarianism

Egypt - Day 16

Latest from Egypt

• Mubarak’s Minister  says – Violence if protestors don’t back off. & NYT
• Striking workers join protestors
• The Information Wars is topic of Al Jazeera’s monthly show tomorrow in NYC at Columbia 2:45 EST.
• Remembering – web site devoted to Photos of young  killed by dictator

There are a whole string of mostly American back dictators backing the inhumane Mubarak. Remember Saudi Arabia where most of the 911 hijackers come from?

This oil rich totalitarian regime along with our American media and governments collaborate to keep what happens in their totalitarian regime from YOU. Not Investors411. Let’s present the reality of Mubarak’s biggest backer and Bush/Obama’s biggest hand holders -

How the Saudi’s treat

• Jews – They send out text books across the world depicting Jew’s as monkey’s and pigs.
• Journalists - For criticizing an electric company a journalist was given 50 lashes in front of the company and put in jail for 6 months.
• Women – For going unaccompanied with a man to a building a women was given 300 lashes and a one year jail term

The above facts are from Human Right’s Watch founder Robert Bernstein video [source - Bloomberg's Taking Stock show with Henry Pimm - Paul's favorite financial network]

We sell $60 billion worth of weapons to the Saudi’s from our military industrial complex yet almost No Americans have ever heard of Cyber Dissidents.org who fight for freedom and justice in a gulag of dictatorships.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.06%	up
NASDQ	-0.29%	up
S&P 500	-0.28%	up
Russell 2000	-0.54%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Flat to moderate declines in weak volume.
• Short term over bought US indexes took an out of breath break yesterday.
• Mantra till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. .
• Mantra #2 – 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades ‘s chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
• Major fundamental causes for Wall Street concern at the moment – Inflation in emerging markets, European debt, will the Suez canal stay open.
• Another Bearish forecast – “Yield Curve” is steepest ever – difference between rates of 2 (so low) & 10 (rising, but down 2.23% yesterday)year treasury bonds.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell  yesterday  -0.46%. Looks like dollar bears may be back and for stocks that’s = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to to +10.38. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level.  Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantra - A manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed to pay off their over leveraged debt.

Photo - Helicopter Ben Bernanke - Dishing out a Tsunami of liquidity to US economy

Major emerging markets are in a meltdown. A correction of 5% to 10% has turned into a 10% to 20+% meltdown. Inflation is the enemy. China, Brazil and India all had about a 2% drop yesterday.

From yesterday - Gold, and commodities may work as a hedge on inflation, but when it comes to the USA,  going short equities provides much more protection.

Falling dollar – The other major factor keeping US stocks in rally mode is the falling dollar.

Bottom Line –

• Short term – too many up days in a row. Minor correction due
• Longer term – Fed liquidity tsunami is having a negative impact on the rest of the world, but keeping US afloat. Problem s what happens when the liquidity dries up? But when is uncertain (QE #2 goes to June) and if economic news is bad will there be a QE#3.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)  See $USD above for more. Dollar may be turning back down. From yesterday -When after a short rally a stock/sector index opens and closes at same price it often indicates a reversal. We’ve had a significant reversal down. Today will confirm/or not, that reversal

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high in moderately higher volume. Up 4 days in a row.

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Positions

UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dips. Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Have set stop/loss for last 1/2 at 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Check out the comments from Bob, Monitor, Doggies Mom, D. & Popeye on right side of blog. Are they right?

The Green Revolution

The Iranian Green Revolution has again erupted into massive demonstrations. Today’s lead editorial at NYT Iran’s War on Its People LINK

One video shows protesters stopping a lynching LINK More pro reform video’s of demonstration LINK The BBC (almost always superior to American media) has photos of clashes LINK & Andrew Sullivan (Atlantic Magazine) again outstanding in coverage LINK Al Jazeera (Arab media’s largest outlet) also has lots of coverage LINK Warning some of these pictures and videos are violent

About the worst thing that could happen is if Israel or the USA launched some sort of attack. We didn’t when the satellites of the old Soviet empire crumbled and we should not now. It would create martyrs in Iran and almost all those demonstrating are asking us to stay out. To help - the best YOU can do is spread the news/videos.

The irony here is in Iraq we have put in power the same kind of religious theocracy. Maliki, our supposed puppet head of Iraq, was the first (government/group) along with Hamas and Hezbollah to recognize Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent presidential election. The two major religious leaders in Iraq Sard and Sistani have never even spoken to any Americans.

Yemen & Saudi Arabia

Al Qaeda of Saudi Arabia has claimed responsibility and Yemen was where the attempted bomber of the Christmas plane flight was trained. We seem to be already using drone planes to attack suspected bases in Yemen. These two groups seemed to have merged. For more see LINK

Let’s put together an incomplete list of where these (Sunni as opposed to Shia) al Quaeda terrorists are from or trained – The USA, Saudi Arabia, England, Yemen, Iraq, France, Germany, Syria, Indonesia, Spain,Nigeria, Egypt and the list goes on and on and on and on and grows and grows and grows and grows.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that got the most recommendations I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

• BIDU – Baidu Inc. China’s version of Google. After a HUGE 300% rally tis year it looks technically like this stock is leveling off. The last 3 months it has tried to break out above 350 and failed.  The BDI  which is often used for a proxie on China has fallen for 6 weeks. I’d wait for a turn in the BDI and/or a BIDU breakout over the 450 level before investing.
  
• AAPL – Apple Computer – A company that everyone knows. Along with AMZN & GOOG, AAPL has led tech stocks higher.  Apple has just broken out to a new high. There has been increased volume (a good sign)supporting AAPL for the last few months. Right now US markets & AAPL are nearing overbought levels. Right now this limits upside movement. Still tempting and a buy the dip stock.
  
• AMZN – Amazon – Internet retail giant.  Looks like Christmas season for this giant is going to be better than expected. Investors411 has bought and sold this stock. There was a good buy the dip opportunity a week+ back when AMZN dipped back to its 50 day moving average. Like AAPL a lot of increased volume behind AMZN in the last few months – good sign. If markets move higher these last two will lead. A buy the dip stock.

That’s it – Use the calender at the top of the page and go over all YOUR stock choices made over the last week+.  Some of them are great “buy the dip opportunities”

Next  Stock forecast for 2010

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.26%	up
NASDQ	+0.24%	up
S&P500	+0.12%	up
Russell2000-	-0.05%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Another low volume day. Stocks have been up 6 days in a row on extremely low volume.

Holiday sales estimated to be up 3.6%. This is a positive surprise LINK = Bullish fundamental

McClellan Oscillator at +48.42 (very close to overbought – see below) = Bearish technical

See changes in positions below.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before “Up to flat week” – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +48.42 This is very close to an  Overbought Position. = Time to start lighten up on positions. This does not mean the markets won’t move higher. I’ve set up a yearly chart of the $NYMO LINK You’ll notice that the $NYMO went all the way up to +100 in the big March rally. So + 60 is NOT an automatic sell of everything, but a signal to lighten up. See buys/sells below.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+ =  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Sold (6% of portfolio)  FXI at 42.35. FXI now 12% of portfolio – Profit +36% Will add to the this key position when BDI turns positive for over a week and/or the $NYMO is closer to oversold positions

Very tight stop on 1/2 the position of UWM (ETF that does 2X what small cap sacks do) The other stop at 1/2 is at the price UWM was bought.  Will sell 1/2 into any rally

Now 48% invested in stocks. If you count one mutual fund I’ve owned for 5 years (BRSIX ) I’m 54% invested in stocks. Click on POSITIONS section at top of blog for more.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH