Investors 411 Blog

IMAX arc and camera

The Country is Headed in the Right/Wrong Direction

From Pollster.com a compilation of polls Note the trend.

Going Green to the Extreme

The Far Left has its own extreme views. Example – Lisa Hymas – Going Green is a reason NOT to have kids.  Her editorial - Say it loud: I’m child free and I’m proud. Money quote

“the single most meaningful contribution I can make to a cleaner, greener world is to not have children.”

Sorry Lisa, almost everyone feels completely different about kids than you.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.43%	down
NASDQ	+1.12%	down
S&P 500	+0.79%	down
Russell 2000	+2.00%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made each weekend

Another rally day in falling well below average volume. = Bearish

Stocks rallied despite a significant rally in the dollar, oil prices at new highs, and the 10 year treasury bond hitting 4.00% yesterday (see chart on right side of blog) = Bullish

This chart of the benchmark S&P 500 at top has something called the RSI (Relative Strength Index) It is another indicator like the McCellan Oscillator that show when a market is overbought.  In this case overbought= over +70. The SPX now stands at +73.96.. In fact all major US indexes, according to the RSI are overbought.

There many different ways to technically measure buy and sell points (overbought & oversold). The RSI is one and it, unlike the McCellan says we are overbought. Right now the McClellan is working better than the RSI because we haven’t yet crashed and burned. So, for now, Investors411 is going to stay with the McCellan because its working.

When to Hold ‘em and When to Fold ‘em

Stocks – Investors411 has historically sought long term positions (hopefully years or many months) that follow trends. For a List of those trends click on Overview at top of blog. Unfortunately, along came the September 2008 meltdown/recession and those trends got interrupted or broken.  So shorter term positions became more desirable.  The lack of transparency clouding invstments and technology making everything quicker has impcted trends and markets.

Let’s look at two recent buys. IMAX & DWA One worked the other did not. Why.

IMAX – Up 40 to 50% since purchased.

• First there was a fundamental reason to buy IMAX. New technology trend in 3D is emerging and people are willing to pay more for the IMAX experience. Technically the long term chart also looked good.
• But now IMAX’s RSI is at 79.14 (well into overbought territory) and it is the furthest it has eve been over its 50 day moving average. There are a lot of other warning signs but I’m trying to keep this simple.
• Why hold fundamentally – the technology  trend/ demand is still in place and growing for 3D technology. More Imax theaters and a move into TV is emerging. Some potentially block buster 3D movies like Iron Man 2 and another Shrek are coming out.
• Why hold technically – For longer term investors, even though this stock is overbought, it is melting up in weaker volume. If there was a big volume rally (going elliptical) it would be time to sell.
• Technically IMAX is ahead of itself and you’d love to see a sideways consolidation. Yep, you could see a sudden dip, but right now there are plenty of investors wishing they had bought and they will purchase the first dip.

So for now Investors411 will stay put with IMAX and even nibble some more on a dip.

DWA – Lost -4%

• Dreamworks, DWA, looked like a perfect complement to IMAX. Proven kids films and a handful coming out in 3D would increase profits. So Investors “bought the dip” before the Dragons film was release. Technically a not great, but reasonable long term chart.
• What happened fundamentally – Dragon’s did not live up to expectations, in part because of the success of other 3D films (Titans & AIWL) Too many 3D films competing for too few screens. Good for IMAX and bad for DWA.
• I never like losses to exceed 7% (This came out of an old Investor’s Business Daily trading strategy) DWA did go up almost 10%, but Investors is looking for longer term holds or trends it was held.
• What happened technically – A downside move in heavy volume that broke a support level. So both technically and fundamentally there were reasons to sell.

Realize that there are lots of sharks that know more than you or me. What we can do is identify a trend and use some simple technical signs in trading. If the trend and the technicals covered are collapsing or going elliptical in big volume you fold ‘em. If the McCellan goes too high you fold ‘em.

Some of you use other ways to protect stock purchases like selling covered calls and using exponential moving averages.  These sophisticated investors like Paul R. know what they are doing. Most of you just want something to buy and hold that goes up or outperforms over a longer period.

CAUTION – There is nothing out there that’s a sure thing and everything has become riskier since the Lehman collapse and inability to fix the problem.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose significantly to +19.12 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – This downward trading pattern has been broken. Moving toward overbought territory
• US Dollar – rose a significant +0.51% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.]

As stated before -What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. Falling dollar good for stocks & rising dollar bad in the short term

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend Monday) - These are positions I actually own

Limited time this AM – Will try for YOUR Stock List tomorrow. FYI – one recommendation CREE was up over 10% yesterday.

.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

The Bad News

Obama to give major Jobs speech today.

Continuing from yesterday – So there is a lot of good economic news out there . We moved back from a financial meltdown cliff and and the improvement in the last jobs report is sunshine breaking through the clouds.  Obama does deserve some credit, but so do other factors like globalization – The emerging markets, like China are leading this recovery and pulling us along.

There are four major factors that are holding us back .

The HUGE hole – As stated many times since the fall of 2008 – this" financial crisis is far far far bigger" than most people though. We had both a housing & financial bubble’s burst. Many, but not all foreign countries bought into the American concept of "unregulated free markets." The phrase sound good, but countries from the Ukraine to Iceland have been crushed by adopting the American view of unregulated capitalism. This is a deep global hole.

The Consumer – Common sense has made the American consumer save more. This is justifiable. However the American consumer makes up over 70% of GDP growth. If she/he is saving they are not spending & money is not flowing.

Hoarding Banks – To paraphrase a nursery rhyme "All the president’s horses and all the president’s men can’t get banks to start loaning again." Shadow banks are hoarding money, because their balance sheets are so bad – they were caught holding on to too many unsecured assets (credit default swaps) Like consumers, a little hoarding is relatively good when compared too cascading debt.

There are, in partial defense of banks, a lot of potentially unworthy people to loan to. But, unless banks make the loans – money does not flow and the economy does not grow.

Debt – The USA entered this crisis already with a HUGE federal and trade deficit. Wars and nation building (Afghanistan) abroad significantly add to this deficit. We, like all other G20 countries, have used some form of government stimulation to help the economy recover. Our problem is the big debt hole we were already in .

Another big debt, not often mentioned is the debt each state has. As jobs and foreclosures grew & people save more  state revenue consequently fell. What’s happened in CA, MI & some other states will spread. Obama’s stimulus is back end loaded. Only @ 30% has been spent – so some of the remaining 70% will help will help troubled states. The question is – is the remainder of the stimulus and any new jobs program enough to tide us over until the jobs/financial and picture brightens?

The one argument that is impossible to stomach is the right wing mantra that big government can’t solve problems and/or is bad. Obama was handed an economic world that was on fire and he’s created some fire engines and used water (money) to put out the fire  You can disagree with with the methods, but a world left up unregulated capitalist greed is doomed. Without government/Fed intervention (the fire engines and water) we simply would NOT have put out the fire.

Tomorrow – the Ugly.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.01%	down
NASDQ	-0.22%	down
S&P500	-0.46%	down
Russell2000-	+0.13%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar held onto its enormous Friday gains. It looks like it is at an inflection point.  The fact that the dollar went no where and stocks went nowhere means the dollar’s inverse relationship to US stocks is back on.  The dollar is still the #1 forecasting tool.

Fearless Forecast-. From Monday – This week we should be all over the place, but some solid economic fundamentals are coming into the light. This should help stocks in the long run. Once the dollar calms down (expect it to rise and gold to fall) we should improve. Flat to up week .

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI a fell -71 points yesterday and closed at 4036. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1800 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, 9 down days in a row & now up 3 days in a row. Multi day moves in one direction are common and the decline in rate of change usually signals a reversal.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. After, what looks like a technical correction we are agin moving higher.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar was flat -0 Friday . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $75.77 .

The dollar’s rise did temper the rally, but the whole dynamic or fundamentals have changed. See Positions below.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +22.38 This is a Slightly Overbought Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.  Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

We’ve had, and volume has confirmed, a quantum shift in markets. This may be temporary and it may be long term, but it necessitates major changes in positions.

Today is a confirmation day for Friday’s move.  More than anything else – looking for dollar to hold or add to gains .  Will buy some ETF’s and stocks until McClellan says we are overbought (@+60)

Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING

GLD – Sold all GLD for major profit.  (will compute this later)  Gold is still something to hold for the long term and its fundamentals are still credible. Will buy back in on dips.

Gold will rise again, but for now there is just too much downside momentum. Will be back with larger position in GLD & GDP on a dip

NVS -Sold for 21+%

AMZN – Sold for 16+ % profit. This looks like a mistake. Fed Ex had a surprise upgrade in earning. Most of their good news was from abroad, but they ship and AMZN products are shipped.

BUYING

FXI – Adding more to this positions. If Main Street is recovering faster than expected, so will China. Their currency & exports is tied to the dollar. So in one major sense, their recovery is tied, in part, to the USA. They have under performed major USA indexes recently.

IWM or UWM (an ultra fund that does basically 2x IWM) These ETF’s both track small cap stocks (Russell 2000) IF , Main Street is recovering faster than expected they should outperform the other indexes. They have under performed so far and should, like China, make up some lost ground relative to other major US indexes. Waiting for more of  a dip.

BAC - Bank of America. They’re paying back TARP shows solid fundamental strength. (I know they are a shadow bank bad guys) Bought  a small amount of BAC Friday.

Start small & Build your position – Buy the dip.

Again any stock investment or ETF that doubles or triples what a normal ETF does is a short term play for traders and short term investors – NOT long term Investors .

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Shock & Awe for Bears

The unemployment report Friday both shocked and awed Wall Street Bears and almost all economists . Even more than the startled jumping Panda. (Thanks David Fry for photo)

The dramatic drop in job losses coupled with a positive +2.8% GDP growth for the last quarter is certainly good news for every bull on Wall Street and Main St. Economic momentum is flowing in a positive direction both in the USA & especially emerging markets.

Why?

There’s good, bad, and ugly behind the positive economic news . Since, Obama’s Afghanistan policy is such a disaster (at least to those of you who have commented and Investors411 – See additional Clinton, Gates LINK [we're nation building & there for as long as it takes] and Friedman [against surge LINK ] on Talk shows over weekend) lets start out today with the good and give Obama some credit.

There are 4 major reasons why we have seemingly turned a corner. - TARP, emerging markets, printing money, and stimulus.

TARP – Bailing out Shadow Banks was started by Paulson/ Bush and continued under Geithner /Obama.  TARP is working better than almost everyone expected. Last week Bank of America announce plans to pay back $45 billion (plus interest)and losses far less than expected. See NYT. See LINK

Emerging Markets – They kept emerging, especially China. (see past Investors411) They’re the locomotive and we are the caboose.

Printing Money – The Fed just kept printing trillions of dollars faster than a super market buys toilet paper. The unusual part is investors from around the world bought truck loads of that toilet paper in the form of US treasury bonds with insignificant interest rates. If/when rates go up, boy will those  investors have a huge supply of TP to whip their ____.

Stimulus - Around the world governments stimulated their economies with programs. You can make a case for Germany & China’s program being better than ours, but Obama’s stimulus (he was limited by Republican opposition) was relatively good.

Remember the old story of you can give a poor man a fish or you can teach him to fish. Well, economists have ways of measuring just how stimulative throwing money at a problem is. Does your dollar buy  even one fish or lots of fishes?

• The Republican mantra is always cut taxes – Mark Zandi , economist from Moody’s and a McCain’s economic adviser “making all the Bush tax cuts permanent and cutting the corporate tax rate–would raise GDP by at most 37 cents for each $1 of revenue loss. ”
  
• Obama’s stimulus – “By contrast, increased outlays for infrastructure, aid to state and local governments and extended unemployment benefits increase GDP by between $1.41 and $1.57 for every $1 spent.”

The bipartisan Congressional Budget Office measured the whole thing and you can find more on why/what stimulus worked at LINK

Common Sense – Yes there are time tax cuts work especially targeted and in a recession.

But, when you cut taxes to a company you never know where that money is going to go – Fat bonuses for executives, a new home in Dubai (the global sex slave capital of the world), buying financials WMD’s (Warren Buffett’s term for Credit Default Swaps) or sometimes even good stuff like into research & development.

What you want to have happen is DEMAND increase for your product. The more money flows, the more demand. The reason you see sources like CNBC, right wing polls and think tanks always call for tax cuts is they control the companies or the companies are their big advertisers/sponsors.  Greed is good for me is their mantra.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.22%	up
NASDQ	+0.98%	up
S&P500	+0.55%	up
Russell2000-+2.38%		-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Economic Bears were shocked and awed at the fall in unemployment. Great news for Main Street USA, but we have a deep deep hole to climb out of.  This is mixed news for US Stocks.

The news is mixed for Wall Street, because good economic news in employment means the government/Fed will probably stimulate less. Therefore,  financial companies will no longer be able to borrow for nothing,  and their interest rates will rise sooner rather than later.  The dollar also gets stronger and those companies making more because the cheaper goods sold faster overseas will cost more – looss demand & profits.

Technically we had HUGE volume accompany a price rise. Unfortunately, for most major indexes the rally was less than a significant 1%. Stocks first went way up, then down and settled for moderate gains.

Small cap stocks, are more dependent on a recovery on Main Street did gain a significant +2.38% Bigger companies have more contracts abroad.

Fearless Forecast – Last weeks unexpected positive jobs number helped create a positive week. Investors predicted a flat to down week. Oops. This week we should be all over the place, but some solid economic fundamentals are coming into the light. This should help stocks in the long run. Once the dollar calms down (expect it to rise and gold to fall) we should improve. Flat to up week .

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI a small rose +45 points yesterday and closed at 4107. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1800 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, 9 down days in a row & now up 3 days in a row. Multi day moves in one direction are common and the decline in rate of change usually signals a reversal.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. After, what looks like a technical correction we are agin moving higher.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose an ENORMOUS +1.44% Friday . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $75.59 .

The dollar’s rise did temper the rally, but the whole dynamic or fundamentals have changed. See Positions below.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +23,51 This is a Slightly Overbought Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.  Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

We’ve had, and volume has confirmed, a quantum shift in markets. This may be temporary and it may be long term, but it necessitates major changes in positions.

Today is a confirmation day for Friday’s move.  More than anything else – looking for dollar to hold or add to gains.  Will buy some ETF’s and stocks until McClellan says we are overbought (@+60)

Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING

GLD – Investors411 sold all of DGP several trading days ago and 1/2 of GLD on Friday. Last entry into this position was at $92.7 .  Traders should sell the rest and longer term investors could hold onto last 1/2 position (5% of portfolio).

Gold will rise again, but for now there is just too much downside momentum. Will be back into GLD & GDP late.

NVS -The flu scare is over. Thenumber of states that have serious flu has dropped from 43 to 25. Time to take profits on last 1/2 this position. Let’s take our profits 21+%

AMZN – Taking profits. Markets rallied yesterday and AMZN dropped 2.54%. Never a good sign to see NASQ rally 1% and your tech stock drop. Again, this in part, was a flu play. Why be greedy we have about a 16+% profit.

BUYING

FXI – Adding more to this positions. If Main Street is recovering faster than expected, so will China. Their currency & exports is tied to the dollar. So in one major sense, their recovery is tied, in part, to the USA. They have under performed major USA indexes recently.

IWM or UWM (an ultra fund that does basically 2x IWM) These ETF’s both track small cap stocks (Russell 2000) IF, Main Street is recovering faster than expected they should outperform the other indexes. They have under performed so far and should,like China, make up soe lost ground relative to other major US indexes.

BAC – Bank of America. They’re paying back TARP shows solid fundamental strength. (I know they are a shadow bank bad guys) Bought BAC Friday.

Start small & Build your position – Buy the dip.

Again any stock investment or ETF that doubles or triples what a normal ETF does is a short term play for traders and short term investors – NOT long term Investors .

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Dubai On the Brink

Dubai

Another capitalist bubble bursts , as one of the oil Rich Gulf Emirates countries has asked or 6 months forgiveness on debt.  Imagine all homeowners in USA were to skip 6 months of mortgage payments.” Like many Western consumers during the good times, Dubai gorged on debt and borrowed too much to finance a building boom that has gone bust in the downturn. ” NYT LINK

The Dubai debt  is probably between $80 & $90 billion .  Bloomberg story LINK Comparison when Lehman Brothers failed the debt was over $400 billion and a whole lot of other bigger shadow banks were in big trouble.  The US taxpayer bailed them out all the big shadow banks.  Another financial credit bubble bursting of this magnitude is obviously bad for stocks – Asian markets down  3 to 5% today.

Dubai will probably get  bailed out by Oil Rich Gulf Country capital Abu Dhabi . They have a $700 to 800 billion sovereign wealth fund. With oil above $60 they should be able to handle the crisis, and in the end Abu Dhabi and probably Saudi Arabia will gain greater control over the other 7 gulf countries.

What happens is people sell when there afraid and what they sell is those stocks, companies ETF’s that they own. So All our ETF’s are going to get hit . Forget the fact that China’s banks have said they have no exposure to Dubai Our China ETF will get hit. So will Brazil & Gold.

The Right Afghanistan Speech…

That Obama Won’t Give – Steve Clemons (The Washington Note) has an excellent speech by Tom Engelhardt . Clemons is a moderate (backs moderate Republicans like RI’s former Senator Lincoln Chaffee) and if you’ve read his work – an influential intellectual insider not a flame thrower. For Speech See LINK

Your Comments

Check out recent comments on right side of the blog Bob S. has comments on Goldman Sachs and SE on Sarah Palin including a link to a cherry picked, but scary video.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage %	Volume
Dow	+0.29%	down
NASDQ	+0.32%	down
S&P500	+0.45%	down
Russell2000	-0.07%	-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dubai news is trumping Black Friday today on CNBC – the financial channel this AM.

The dollar is going to explode higher and oil lower.  Stocks are set for at least a 2+% fall at the open.  The real question is what happens on Monday after we see US stocks fall perhaps 3% today.  The Dubai crisis will clearly take time to see just how extensive the fall out will be.  Although much smaller than the US debt meltdown last fall we don’t know the extent of the damage.

When investors don’t know they sell.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell -115 points yesterday and closed at 4340. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2100 points since late September. Now, 5 down days in a row. through the former resistance and now support level.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra – Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar fell a HUGE -1.17% Wednesday. The dollar closed at $74.24 . The $75.00 support level crashed and burned. The Dubai crisis is going send money back into the dollar and out of the stock market.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +16.74 This is a Slightly Overbought Position – stocks are neither oversold or overbought in the short term.

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold.

Remember, the record shows over the years I’m a much better ETF (stock) picker than market timer . It’s easier to identify a long term mega trend and harder to time it exactly. Events like Dubai are, for me, unpredictable.

If you are a long term investor you may just want to hold onto positions.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH/NEUTRAL