Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
May 12, 2011

The Vampire Squid

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The Vampire Squid

The People vs Goldman Sach’s

Matt Taibbi back with another editorial in the Rolling Stone. Matt’s the guy who immortalize GS as a Vampire Squid sucking on the face of humanity. He just keeps getting better and better. You can be damn sure that none of the cheerleading financial channels will dare to have him on.

Here’s Some of the money quotes

  • They weren’t murderers or anything; they had merely stolen more money than most people can rationally conceive of, from their own customers, in a few blinks of an eye
  • [Goldman Sachs] – “stands as the most important symbol of Wall Street’s aristocratic impunity and prosecutorial immunity produced since the crash of 2008…

  • used its canny perception of an upcoming disaster (one which it helped create, incidentally) as an opportunity to enrich itself, not only at the expense of clients but ultimately, through the bailouts and the collateral damage of the wrecked economy, at the expense of society. The bank seemed to count on the unwillingness or inability of federal regulators to stop them…

  • stands now on the precipice of officially getting away with one of the biggest financial crimes in history….

  • This isn’t just a matter of a few seedy guys stealing a few bucks. This is America: Corporate stealing is practically the national pastime, and Goldman Sachs is far from the only company to get away with doing it….

  • if Goldman skates without so much as a trial — it will confirm once and for all the embarrassing truth: that the law in America is subjective, and crime is defined not by what you did, but by who you are.”

“Stealing by corporate America is practically a national pastime.” The ruling wealthy plutocracy that benefits from GS rules the USA. Almost untouchable. Yet their financed media finds ways of pitting the middle class who they use and abuse against each other and the poor.

Vast amounts of wealth have been transfered to the wealthy elite over decades while they focus/fear monger you on racial prejudice, patriotism, religious bias, jealousy, greed, endless wars, cutting everything except the aristocracy.

TREND – As other countries develop their middle class, the consumers of the shrinking middle class in the USA will become even less important.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.02% up
NASDQ -0.93% up
S&P 500 -1.11% up
Russell 2000 -1.78% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • The weekly jobless numbers come out today and will act as a confirmation of how the economy is doing.
  • A bad jobless number is not necessarily bad for stocks, because it means it means the potential for more quantitative easing.
  • The dollar rising means many of those who have for months been dollar bears and long commodities are getting out of their positions, This hurts stocks and you saw the damage on Silver (down 8.34%) & oil (down 5.44%) yesterday.
  • BRAVO – The US government finally won a sizable court VICTORY – Hedge Fund bigwig Raj Rajaratham was convicted on all 14 counts of insider trading
  • Translation – You decide - Hedge Funds and others will think twice because this guy should get serious jail time or this is just the tip of the iceberg. Everyones doing it and the underfunded SEC can’t begin to catch all the crooks.
  • How the Wall Street day sets up from Seeking Alpha (Not good)

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a whopping +0.96%yesterday. Third major move higher in 5 day broke through the 50 day moving average. It’s the major reason stocks fell yesterday. Long term trend is bearish, but the short term trend is clearly bullish. For stocks = Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on fell dramatically to +1.98. Back squarely in the middle. = Neutral

________________

Paul’s Corner

We were all set up for our 4th day of the rally, futures looked good and then after the opening bell, the heat mat of the S&P 500 turned almost solid red. “Humph looks like a trying day coming“. Reports of a growth in inventory of crude and gasoline started a slide in commodities. The EURO fell with concerns over Europe’s debt crisis, the dollar rose and you guessed it the market took a hit.

YSL 4 had mixed trading and nothing gross happened to the group. SPRD, CPHD and SAP all had a good day.  SPRD  needs to settle down and base a bit before a buy would be safe. RNOW dropped below the 50 but it did that on low volume.  Volume on many of the YSL 4 stocks was normal or even low.

*****

As I often state, I use HGSI software as my primary stock analysis program. It has great interactive charts, the best screening in the business, the ability to make your own groups and indexes along with excellent support.

Next week May 18th Jeffrey Scott a HGSI user is going to present a HGSI Webinar and will show how he uses HGSI in his successful trading. I invite any of you who are interested in a quality analysis program  and building your trading skills to watch the webinar.

The Power Of HGSI Webinar May 18th from 8:00pm to 9:30pm EDT Registration is required and the webinar is free.

See LINK

Please note, I am a HGSI user, I pay a monthly fee for the program and I receive no compensation for recommending the product.

*****

These past few months have not been easy to trade with a full stomach. Folks are asking for longer term trades,  all of the stocks on YSL have the quality for long term trades. UFS Domtar, a paper company was added to Your Stock List on August 23, 2010. Priced about 57.15 it closed yesterday at 104.26, with an 87% gain in 9 months. It also has a small dividend.  Common stocks can be nice long term investments. It looks like UFS should have not been removed from YSL.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

*****

Editor’s note – Click on POSITIONS at top  of blog and scroll down for YSL 4 & 4.5 Stocks mentioned above or LINK here

________________

Dividend Stocks

Caution - The Critic (in the comments section of the blog) reminds that the two high dividend stocks NLY and ANGC are too far above their 50 day moving averages to buy now and longer term investors should wait to buy the dip.

________________

.

Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – From Yesterday – MO has been an amazing accurate forecasting tool for the past year.  It saying we are getting near a technical top – Yesterday saw a major market reversal led by commodities (silver and oil)

Investors411 mantra has been to wait for the MO to get down toward -60 to buy.

The commodities trade (commodities rally of many months) is unwinding as the dollar goes higher.  Speculators, hedge funds, huge institutions etc. who have built up major positions are unwinding those positions. It took many months to build these positions in commodities and the dollar. It will probably take more than a week to unwind these positions.

UUP – The tracking ETF for the dollar still the index to watch.

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

I have a position = Either I own it personally or a member of my family does.  I also manage an account for a non profit organization.

The Investors411 PortfolioThe stocks in YSL #4/4.5, REMX, plus all trades mentioned  in this section. (example the SLV and ZLS trades mentioned in April and May) AGNC & NLY will be added on a dip

  • REMX – Still trading above 50 day moving average which would be a buying point if your interested in owning rare earth mining companies.
  • ZSL (double short silver) – A potential trade today. Silver is just a % point of two from its last week low. Silver bears are going to try break the bulls today. If they do you might catch a significant downside move.  All of this depends on the dollar. Dollar/Euro trade is at a major support level. Bad news in Europe could set off a chain of events that drive Silver and oil lower.  Not a solid trade with and established trend, but one with potential because momentum with bears. Will mention in comments section if I am about to make trade.

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch foPaul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 9, 2011

Praising Bush

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Due to the overwhelming requests from YOUR emails and conversations Investors411 is going to be focusing more on LONG TERM INVESTMENTS. Investors will still cover trends, YSL’s, ETF’s etc., but for May one segment will focus on Long Term Investments – Dividend Producing Stocks. (see below)

Praising Bush

Investors411 has roasted and toasted Bush over the years. However, I do give former President Bush  credit in helping to catch bin Laden.

Two actions that former President Bush took helped in capturing bin Laden. No matter how you feel about the illegitimacy and uselessness of the Iraq war, these factors still count.

  • Bush replaced Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld with Bill Gates. Gates team was far superior to Rummy’s.  He was there in the situation room with Obama when the navy seals raided bin Laden’s hideout.
  • Bush replaced incompetent generals with the far more able Petraeus. Petraeus realized it was important to win the hearts and minds of the people, an almost impossible tack when your an occupier of a foreign country. He didn’t win all the heart and minds, but he was better at it than his predecessors. His conduct lead to a better situation overall and therefore more actionable intelligence.

Yes, for frequent blogger, EW, Obama get’s the lion’s share of credit, but let’s not forget Bush.

Manipulated vs. Managed

For many moons, Investors411 has used the term “manipulated” when referring to Bernanke, the Fed, POMO, Quantitative Easing etc.  A perhaps better, and certainly softer term would be “managed.” Manipulated has a more negative connotation.

Only time will tell wether managed or manipulated is the more appropriate term.  So far “manage” works for no depression, a robust stock market, -700,00 to +250,000 employed. But many see dark clouds for the future. So lets call it – managed/manipulated

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.43% down
NASDQ +0.46% down
S&P 500 +0.38% down
Russell 2000 +0.49% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • OIL (WTIC) traded all the way from @$102 to $95 and settled at $98 Down almost 13% for the week
  • Silver stopped the bleeding and rallied over 2% Friday after a 25% to 30% fall for the week.
  • Other commodities fell less severely and stocks were down
  • The major question in investors minds is the indecision  between deflation (double dip recession) and inflation.
  • This week - Europe Crisis, Commodity Rally/Rout, Economic Conditions
  • Big rally at open fell apart because of rising dollar.
  • Thursday’s weekly jobs number (horrible last week) is the big number for the week.
  • NB – A lot of $$$ has come out of commodities and is looking for somewhere to park - so advantage bulls

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Second big move higher +0.97% on Friday. Sure looks like dollar bulls won the week long war (see Thursday’s Investors411) This move wiped out almost 11 days of the dollar falling. For stocks = Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on Friday  rose to -13.31 Below zero which is bullish, but not yet overbought = Neutral

________________

Dividends

Dividend Stocks vs. Non-Dividend Payers

Dividend producing stocks have two potential advantages.

  • The potential for capital appreciation
  • A second revenue stream from a dividend which is payed out to investors by the company

See chart above for long term results

Filters

In order to choose from the aprox. 1600 dividend producing stocks they had to be filtered for certain criteria. So that you may do this yourself the FREE sites I used were -

  • Yahoo Finance – The preceding link is set to KMP,  a dividend producing for stock I own. Yahoo Finance simply organizes it all on one page. Charting to the right, daily activity including the dividend rate (6.10%) & up to the date news in the center, and all the fundamentals listed to the left
  • Dividends.comAgain, the preceding link is set to KMP. In my Google Search I write the ticker symbol “KMP” then the word “dividend” and Dividends.com link is one of the top choices. Up comes a some very relevant information on KMP and its dividend that’s FREE. Great for an initial search. Dividends.com is mostly a PAY site that offers a two week FREE trial and uses some proprietary filters.
  • Lists of Dividend Stocks – All you have to do to get many recommendations on top dividend stocks is, again, use Google – It FREE- WSJ, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, Motley Fools, Jim Jubak, and a host of others offer their top picks.  Hunt away.
  • How Dividends Work – At Dividends.com , Wikipedia and Investopedia there’s more information.

What Filters were used to generate this list.

  • The chosen stock should be a dividend raiser. A stock whose dividend is stabile (good) going up (better) over a sustained period is better than one going down.
  • Capital appreciation – You want the price of the stock you choose to be going up.
  • Performance in a meltdown –  The 2008.2009 meltdown was used as criteria. Those stocks whose went way down may have rebounded well but this list looked for those stocks that were less volatile.
  • Tax considerations – Dividends in Limited Partnerships & REITS are often taxed less.

Later this week, probably Wednesday, Investors411 will start with the sexy, high octane , high risk dividend plays. Two that I own have 19% and 14% annual dividends and some capital appreciation to boot.  We’ll start with those two and their competitors.

________________

.

Positions

Tea Leaves – Bearish dollar, lots of free cash floating around from sellers of commodities(bullish) and a Neutral MO = No clear trend. Hard to call bought probably slight short term advantage to bulls.

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD.

  • ZSL trade was officially closed Friday. If you followed silver and Investors411 you made +20% on SLV in April & +30% on ZSL in May
  • Would consider ZSL(double short silver) again if SLV approached last weeks low. The major part of any fall usually happens early, but there may be more to the downside in commodities in the medium term. A rebound, at least in short term, should continue in commodities.
  • No trending ETF’s currently under consideration

______________

Check out Paul R’s Comments on stocks and sectors daily and Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 6, 2011

Blowing Our Horn

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Blowing Our Own Horn

What other financial/political website has this kind of record?

  • 6 years beating the S&P 500
  • In April recommended you  be long SLV (silver) and you made +20%, Then warned to get out because silver was too high/overbought
  • Then recommended double shorting silver (with ETF – ZSL) and  you made over 35% in May (don’t think we’ll repeat this anytime soon)
  • Run three “YOUR stock list” who have clobbered the S&P 500 in results. The jury is out on YSL #4.
  • Gives you the reasons behind the stock market moves.
  • Has Paul’s Corner on stock analysis
  • All this and some left of center politics too.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.10% down
NASDQ -0.48% down
S&P 500 -0.91% flat
Russell 2000 -0.44% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • TREND - A massive buildup of liquidity driven (Fed POMO program/quantitative easing) into inflation hedges or commodities is melting down
  • This started in silver (4 huge days of selling) and spread to oil (down 10% yesterday) and significantly to other commodities.
  • TREND – Investors now fear deflation and/or a double dip recession more than inflation.
  • The commodities fall has put investors on edge
  • Key data points yesterday: Europe does NOT lower interest rates & weekly unemployment numbers  for USA significantly higher.
  • World markets   & oil continue to fall on bad US weekly employment numbers.
  • Downward revision in weekly’s and huge increase  in WEEKLY unemployment probably more significant than monthly employment numbers. Monthly could act as confirmation.
  • Monthly jobless numbers at 8:30 EST are  - Unemployment hits 9.0% and job increases to +268,000 for private sector last month and revised upward for previous months.

This is a big positive surprise and will mute some of the trends listed above and below

That was written before the jobs report

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a VERY significant /MASSIVE +1.60%. Sure looks like dollar bulls won the week long war (see yesterday’s Investors411) For stocks = Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell  to -31.08 Below zero which is bullish, but not yet overbought = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

In the War over the dollar, the dollar bulls scored a major victory yesterday. Dollar bears are fleeing.  Of course for US stocks this is a victory for the bears

What happened

  • A massive buildup in hedges against inflation is unwinding.
  • This was driven by Fed liquidity (see above) and we saw a massive speculative bubble build in silver.
  • This bubble broke when the CME raised margin rates on silver
  • It spread to oil – down double digits like silver and other inflation hedges/mostly commodities
  • Investors now fear a double dip recession and/or deflation more than inflation.

What to watch today - Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.

Prediction from yesterday – Reading Tea Leaves - “Short term victory for dollar bulls (dollar goes up) and long term victory of dollar bears.”

What me worry?

BOTTOM LINE - Check out silver chart Almost nothing with this much downside momentum stops on a dime.  We have a huge mountain of speculative anti inflation hedges that need to unwind.

HoweverAll this money is coming out of some stocks, but mostly the  massive amounts from commodities. Also there is almost two months more of the Fed quantitative easing. All this money has to go somewhere. So after we get  unwound in speculative commodities and investors have no other place to go to get  reasonable returns, money should flow back to stocks. At least that’s what my friend Alfred E Neuman tells me.

So once again  in our Fed manipulated/managed economy when stocks get oversold (The MO hits -60) Investors411 will buy.  But for now shorting commodities works. (See below) Stay with the trend till it stops.

___________________

Positions

See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX, ZSL (major position double short silver) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position inGLD.

  • ZSL rallied a huge +11.07% two days ago and +25.14 yesterday.
  • The collapse or unwinding of the commodity trade is spreading. First silver spread dramatically to oil and significantly to other commodities. Looks like it will continue.
  • Therefore any ETF that shorts or better double shorts commodities is a decent play.

Jobs report surprise has put a damper on the concepts suggested above. It was written before the jobs report. The monthly jobs report says we need to worry more about inflation than deflation So taking some profits on shorts may work.  No one went broke taking profits.

My read of the tea leaves is the bump from the monthly jobs report will get tempered later in the day and right now the deflation argument stronger.

Remember there a lot of Fed driven $ out there looking for a place to park.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 5, 2011

The Silver Debacle

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

The Silver Debacle

Why this rocks your world even if you don’t own silver/gold/commodities

The Masters of the Universe have created another fine mess that can trace its origins back to the lack of confidence in the American financial system brought on by the 2008 crisis. The root cause goes deep, but that’s another editorial.

The latest announcement after the bell sounded yesterday was that the CME group was going to raise margins for the fourth and fifth time on silver today and again on May 9th. The total amount margins raises = a huge 17% LINK

Silver prices have  plummeted about 20% in the last four days LINK to ETF that tracks silver

Analysis

The world’s entire economiy needs fair credit and banking to survive. When that system miscalculates risk others (the public, investors, & holders of goods) end up paying the price and confidence is shattered. The Silver Debacle is another blow to our wobbly financial system.

Jesse’s Cafe Americana blog has an accurate representation of the short squeeze going on in silver from the silver owner’s perspective. Unfortunately the post is on May 2nd and therefore old news. However the basic analysis is spot on. Some in the money quotes on why silver is falling and magrins were raised.

“The Comex inventory is down to a new low of 33 million ounces of deliverable silver, at least according to their published records [this]…open up a yawning chasm between the paper markets and the physical markets that will be harder and harder to ignore…

Tens of thousands of buyers, both big and small, taking on the banking giants, draining them of silver, bouncing back again and again, and finally leaving them exposed, high and dry, and nakedly short, for all to see. The many, seeking to string the bankers on a rope of silver, and bring them down.”

The raising of margins by CME & others was the retaliation, not selling exhaustion – The reason silver prices are falling.

We have a war on in both the dollar (see below) and silver/commodities. Both sides have a good, bad and ugly. In the silver pits the bankers are now winning.  The end results could shatter or seriously impact far more than commodities trading and stock rallies.  Stay tuned.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.66% down
NASDQ -0.47% flat
S&P 500 -0.69% down
Russell 2000 -1.29% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Down, then fell slightly yesterday  -0.15. Clear bearish trend has flatlined for a week.  For analysis see The War” (below)
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell  to -18.37 Below zero which is bullish, but not yet overbought = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

The War

What to watch today Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

There’s a massive war on out there between bears and bulls over the dollar. The dollar sits as a major multi year support level and if it breaks the dollar will reach new lows relative to other worldwide currencies.  Click on the UUP symbol above and you will find massive trading volume as the dollar index has basically flatlined over the last week. This HUGE volume can be looked at as all the dead bulls & bears in the war.

This is the bulls last stand (historic lows in danger of falling) and they are putting up quite a fight.

How this war resolves itself will dramatically everything from US stocks to worldwide economics.

Reading Tea Leaves – Short term victory for dollar bulls (dollar goes up) and long term victory of dollar bears.

___________________

Paul’s Corner

The blood bath continued Wednesday May 04 for most of the commodities, silver, oil etc. along with a broad sell off in the general market.  Is this the end of the good life as we know it or is there hope for the next time you hit reload on your portfolio?

One of the ways to evaluate the health of the market is to look at the charts of the majors, the Nasdaq Composite, the NYSE Composite and the S&P 500. At first glance things don’t look too good but closer examination we find all 3 of bounced off of their 17 day moving averages yesterday.  The following chart shows the numbers.

LINK

So the line in the sand for the market is the 17 day moving averages for these indexes. If we break below the 17 the next stop/support is the 50 DMA. If we break the 50 we might be looking at 2008 all over again. Until we see the market is safely holding at or above the 17 we sit on our shoe box of cash!

Ok, back to business, it’s always good to see what did well on a down day. About noon the Semi ETF SMH turned up and quite a few of the semis I follow had a decent day.

So are the semis really moving? Off to HGSI we go to check out the  Industry Group List using the Warehouse  we find the semi group closed at # 6  out of the 154 groups.

LINK

The semis gave notice a week or so ago that they were getting ready to move so it does appear the rotation we talked about last week is in full gear.

One of my favorite scans each evening is where I sort for the top 100 high demand stocks of the day and then create a pie chart of the group to see if there is a group showing strength. Today we find the Semiconductor-Mfg group top and the Semiconductor-Equip group third.

LINK

Here are the semi stocks found:

  • Semiconductor-Mfg (9.00%, 9 securities)
  • Analog Devices  Inc. (ADI)
  • Entropic Communications  Inc (ENTR)
  • Intel Corporation (INTC)
  • Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)
  • Microchip Technology  Inc. (MCHP)
  • National Semiconductor (NSM) (Buy Out)
  • SMART Modular Technologies (SMOD) (Buy Out)
  • Spreadtrum Communications  I (SPRD)
  • Xilinx  Inc. (XLNX)

Semiconductor-Equip (7.00%, 7 securities)

  • AXT  Inc. (AXTI)
  • JinkoSolar Holding Co.  Ltd. (JKS)
  • KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
  • Kulicke & Soffa Industries (KLIC)
  • Novellus Systems  Inc. (NVLS)
  • Ultratech  Inc. (UTEK)
  • Varian Semiconductor Equipme (VSEA)

I see a few of the shoe/retail  stocks started running today:

  • Retail-Apparel/Shoe (3.00%, 3 securities)
  • Gap  Inc. (GPS)
  • Ross Stores  Inc. (ROST)
  • TJX Companies (TJX)

Apparel-Footwear (2.00%, 2 securities)

  • Crocs  Inc. (CROX)
  • Nike  Inc. (NKE)

Once the market settles down and gives us a good indication of a turn up, many of the stocks listed would probably make good candidates for a trade, add all them to your watch list. There are many quality semi stocks that didn’t make this list today so do some shoe work and see what other semis look tempting. YSL 4.5 member SPRD (a Chinese Semi) bounced off the 50 today so it too may be getting ready to party once again. Notice I suggested add to your “watch list” and not to your “buy list”!

FWIW I am 99% in cash and at times like this I can sleep. I had stops under all of my stocks before I left the house Tuesday and I was stopped out of everything reasonably well. So do we all use stops?

___________________

Positions

See POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX, ZSL (major position double short silver) RJA (smaller) DGP (smaller) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD.

  • ZSL rallied a huge +11.07% yesterday.  Plan to sell some into rally today.
  • Other commodities are falling in major part due to the silver debacle. Until Silver prices normalize nothing is safe.
  • If you are trading the ZSL you have to be sitting by your computer.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 4, 2011

My Fellow Sheep

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

How we are manipulated

Three examples of  how us sheep get manipulated

Information

There are 57 different algorithms that go into every individual Google computer search.

Example if you type in the word Egypt you might get as the top three choices – “Crisis in Egypt, Protests in 2011 and Laura Logan.” Your friend types Egypt in a google search and gets – “Travel, Egypt Daily News, & CIA fact book”

Ted Logo

TED is an outstanding organization that offers educated and differing views on critical topics by some outstanding people (Investors411 is proud to occasionally link to this site).

Beware Online Filter Bubbles is a topic presented by Eli Praiser on how editors of newspapers used to edit what we read a century ago. Today Google’s, Facebook’s, and a host of other companies use automated algorithms to edit where we go on the web. Absolutely fascinating 9 minute presentation that I strongly urge you to view or going back to being a sheeple.

Political Manipulation

The killing of bin Laden is a story that has some far more obvious manipulations for political advantage. Obviously hundreds of people contributed to bin Laden’s capture and made many critical decisions – CIA technicians, spies, informants, information analysts, upper level military officials, navy seals etc. all the way to the President of the USA. A huge mosaic and team effort.

Obviously here, Democrats want to focus on the “critical” decisions President Barak Obama made that led to bin Laden’s death. The Republicans, understandably, want to change the narrative to anything but Obama. Example: they are trying to make the story about did torture play a role in the killing of bin Laden?

Silver Manipulation

Usually when the supply of something runs low, and the demand is great, the price goes higher. This is basic economics.  COMEX, the world’s largest commodities exchange is running low on silver. Or so the information seems to indicate. COMEX and others have raised the margin requirements on Silver making it much less profitable to buy and sending the silver prices plummeting.

“Another 186 thousand ounces of physical silver” according to source cited above is being “reclassified” by COMEX today.

There ar two clear sides in this silver market manipulation. Those who will profit over silver/gold moving higher and want it to become the fiat currency of the world (gold was before 1971) and those that want the dollar to remain the fiat currency of the world .

The cast of manipulators include central banks and major financial institutions across the world. Right now the dollar manipulators have the upper hand and the silver investors are in panicededfull retreat.

Disclaimer – I posted on this in yesterday’s blog and commented on it at 2:00PM EST. I own ZSL (double short silver prices) NOT recommended for long term traders or for people that will NOT watch silver prices closely today & tomorrow.


_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today - Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

The UUP has seen extremely heavy volume 3 of the last 4 trading sessions. It has leveled off after declining 9 of he last 10 sessions. The last sentence = short term oversold conditions. Opening and closing at the same level in heavy volume usually means a reversal of trend. In this case the dollar goes higher and related stocks/commodities usually go lower.

The dollar is a critical forecasting tool for stocks & commodities. The MO is in Neural, Silver is being manipulated lower.

So ir looks like for the short term bears rule. We’ll get back to the Bubblicious Fed market manipulations (higher) soon.

___________________

Look for Paul R’s enlightened views on stocks ing the comment section of blog

___________________

Positions

SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX, DGP, (smaller) RJA (smaller) ZSL (double short silver)and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD.

  • DDM (double Dow) is doing far better than UWM – Moving into this area that benefits more from falling dollar after expected dollar rally.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
April 27, 2011

Bernanke

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.93% up
NASDQ +0.77% up
S&P 500 +0.82% up
Russell 2000 +1.04% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • The dollar fell enough yesterday to reach a three year low.
  • Repeat from yesterday (NB: all repeat phrases are in brown) - Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
  • Volume was just above average and that average is down from the past. Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
  • Repeat - US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
  • The fall in the dollar is bullish for almost all commodities including gold, silver, and oil.
  • Bernanke speaking – markets don’t expect any major news, but the continuation of present policies -low interest rates and quantitative easing are key dynamics.
  • Markets expecting more of same from Bernanke and this is why they are in rally mode. From WSJ on Bernanke

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] -0.20 yesterday. Not a big fall, but enough to break down to a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to+28.63.  Getting up there but still = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold Investors – The dollar breakdown (See USD above) is one of the key catalysts behind the silver and gold trade.

Repeat from yesterday - The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have NOT changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer… I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

It may be that a 10% correction in silver (SLV is the ETF) is all the correction we get.

Two Trends

  • Everything is getting compressed. We had a massive 25 – 30% run in SLV (AGQ is riskier 2x silver ETF) in April and a 10% correction in two days that may have ended the meltdown -.  Just like that what used to take weeks and even a month to work itself out may be happening in a couple days in SLV. Gold held up very well yesterday. GLD is gold ETF (DGP is riskier 2x gold ETF)
  • The dollar breakdown rulesThe dollar may not be falling like a stone, but it is breaking downThis is positive for many investment categories -gold, silver oil, commodities and stocks.

Reasoning - The rapidness and volatility of the SLV move takes your breath away. Gold should have fallen with silver and didn’t.  Frankly I expected a bigger than -4% move down in SLV yesterday. The footprints of market manipulation are all over the SLV trade. I have no idea who these entities are unlike the Fed’s manipulation of stocks through quantitative easing.   But the fundamentals remain strong for silver and gold.

For Stock Investors -

Repeat from yesterday – Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place… Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover. Markets are expecting Bernanke to stay the course – this is BULLISH. You may see some selling on the news after the speech.

We are still a bubblicious market juiced  by Fed liquidity.

Technically major indexes have formed a powerful inverse head and shoulders trading pattern and a breakout here is bullish

So I’m out on a limb hereBut the call is Bullish across the board. Only major problem is if Bernanke and Fed make a dramatic change and throw a monkey wrench into investors expectations.

Arnold’s back, and he was only gone for a day. – The dollar is breaking down to lows and stocks breaking out to highs. I’m not making a big investment in stocks, because the MO is too high, but cautiously nibbling on (especially on a dip)

  • UWM (2x small cap stocks) again as a longer term investments.
  • GLD slower and steadier than SLV. SLV is riskier or for those that love great risk AGQ are options, but I’m going to wait a day or three on SLV. (MO relevant to stocks, but not as relevant to silver, gold, or rare earth metals)
  • REMX – Buying any dip – Will try to add to Rare Earth Metals ETF’s. If you know how to read a candlestick chart you’ll see investors have bought the dip for the last 6 trading sessions – usually a bullish sign.
  • See YOUR Stock List for other options

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers. UUP is key

  • USO ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

CautionBecause of Low volume,  and high frequency trades, its very easy for entities from the Fed to hedge funds to manipulate prices Quantitative Easing is one huge manipulation of stocks (higher).

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List.

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (smaller) RJA and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
April 26, 2011

When did Democracy die?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

DSC00109

Photo from Common Dreams

Chris Hedges is a graduate of Harvard Divinity School and a 2 decade long correspondent for the NYT – also CSM, DMN, & NPR. The Acadamy Award Winning Film – The Hurt Locker opened with a quote from a Hedges’ book.

One can defend may things about capitalism. However, Hedges writes a potent editorial that starts -

When did our democracy die?”

You may think this introduction is over the top, because the fact that I’m bringing you his words shows that the flame of democracy still burns. However,  Hedges does make many substantive points that are thought provoking.

  • When did the press, labor, universities, the Democratic part.. wither and atrophy”
  • Is “corporate power” … “inverted totalitarianism?”
  • Over decades – “a massive redistribution of wealth.”
  • “These [corporate] elites do not have a vision [of democracy] . They know only one word—more.”
  • The money quote -

although the heads of state or elected officials in Congress have become largely irrelevant. Lobbyists write the bills. Lobbyists get them passed. Lobbyists make sure you get the money to be elected. And lobbyists employ you when you get out of office. Those who hold actual power are the tiny elite who manage the corporations

What do YOU think?

Is Democracy Dead?

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.21% down
NASDQ +0.20% down
S&P 500 -0.16% down
Russell 2000 -0.17% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • All eyes on silver trade yesterday and today as climax buying (LINK to definition) reached a peak yesterday and a meltdown in foreign markets this AM.
  • Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
  • Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
  • US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
  • Good contrarian article on the possibility of a dollar rally. This would hurt stocks. Do see possibility of short term rally.
  • News of the week  - Bernanke speaking after the Fed Meeting Wednesday (Thanks to EW for mentioning this in comment section of blog)
  • What investors want to hear from Bernanke is more quantitative easing or QE 3.
  • The big longer term news is the ramification if the dollar continues to fall (See editorial above)

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   -0.17 yesterday. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to +10.47. = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold investors - Obviously  these commodities went elliptical or had a climax run. or a blowoff top yesterday. Translation – So many investors bought silver that it ran out of buyers. See SLV chart below and look at the big volume SLV on last Thursday & Friday and the record massive volume yesterday. Look at how far above its 50 day moving average (blue line on chart) SLV is.

Silver is the leader and gold went along for the ride. So it too is taking a hit in sympathy with silver.

Since its peak Sunday night SLV is down almost 10% as I write.

The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have not changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer. This is much harder to predict than a climax run. Because the fundamentals are so strong, I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

For Stock Investors – It’s the middle of earnings season and volume was abysmal. That means the Fed’s quantitative easing rules and the bulls have the momentum. One very significant point is the dollar did not rally as silver fell from yesterday’s high. Perhaps it will today and this will negatively impact stocks. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction.

Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place, but may be in correction for the next day or two. Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover.

For long term traders and everyone –  Arnold, the Terminator’s, famous words for gold/silver – “ I’ll be back” invested in silver/gold. We had a year’s run compressed into a month.

The learning part of all of this is sell into a climax run. Judging from the comments section lots of you did just that.

CONGRATULATIONS

NB – Check out chart of REMX. (Rare Earth Metals) It too had a climax run around New Years day. It reached a high of  @27, then and is now over 28. Consolidating gains after breaking out to a new high.

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.
  • SLVWent elliptical and in meltdown

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List.

Check out YOUR Stock List. - 6 or 7 of the 15 stocks are at highs

Disclosure – I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (small covered call position@ $40) RJA and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
April 25, 2011

Dollars, Gold & Silver

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

silver

Is the dollar collapsing?

Is gold/silver the new world currency?

Worldwide there may be a quantum shift happening as the world shifts from a manipulated currency(ies) to gold/silver or a more tangible monetary base.

The single news item that may be the final straw was a Chinese banker announcing that “China should cap forex reserves at $1.3 trillion U.S. dollars.” China currently has $3.04 trillion invested in US dollars.

This has set off some massive buying of silver and gold across Asia last night – putting jet packs on the already soaring gold and silver prices.

The Trend - The US dollar has been the fiat currency for the world and that is changing. Why?

  • We run a massive shadow banking system that has NOT been fixed
  • We run an over extended military empire. Fastest growing part of our debt.
  • We have massive debt.
  • We have growing economic inequity between upper and lower classes
  • We have ideologically based political system that fear mongers and shouts instead of seeking solutions

Quite simply the average Joe and Jane across the world are saying do I want to invest in this mess – represented by the dollar?

or

Something more tangible and less corrupt, like gold or silver – It shines.

I’m not saying we are going over the edge into the abyss and I strongly doubt that the dollar is going to go the way of Zimbabwe currency.  But there is dramatic change happening and its happening NOW

___________

In answer to one of your emails – No Investors411 has not become a gold & silver blog – I just want you to be aware of the trend and the geopolitical ramifications. This trend is VERY related to politics.

Also I hope you make some profit from investing.

___________

Special thanks to RF for sending in a list of Bernie Sander’s Top 10 corporate freeloaders who pay Little to NO taxes or link here

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.42% down
NASDQ +0.63% down
S&P 500 +0.53% down
Russell 2000 +0.74% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Gold and the much more volatile silver have exploded higher this AM across the world (see above editorial)
  • To curb this speculation the Shanghai Gold Exchange has raised margins on silver futures.
  • Don’t worry if you don’t understand the above. It’s governments (in this case China in the lead) trying to stop panic buying of silver.
  • Dow hit a high last Friday and if other indexes break out of their trading patterns its a strong bullish move. (These indexes formed a reverse head and shoulders pattern)
  • For the time being, as long as Fed continues to dump money into economy – buying on dips and holding remains the trend. Investors411 has been CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH since November (with only a few days back to NEUTRAL)


________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Major question is as silver/gold rises like a rocket is the dollar going to collapse?
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Irrelevant today

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

From 4/13 – Debt ceiling Republican soap opera politics in Washington could really hurt stocks. Question becomes will US default? Investors hate uncertainty and this is yet another bond holder to get out of treasuries. – “stocks” was the wrong word – It may help in the short run, but it could hurt the US far worse in the long run. Just another reason for people to panic into gold/silver.

What to Hope for todayThe move in gold/silver is really a a climax sell off and NOT the start of a major worldwide currency panic which turns the dollar into toilet paper.

Gold/silver – great profits (+15 to 50+%) for those of you who bought GLD, SLV, DGP, AGQ at the start of the month. The fundamentals behind this trade have NOT changed. No one ever went broke selling into what just about every technical analyst on the planet sees as a climax selling.

Bottom Line – However, the gold/silver fundamentals have not changed.  The oligarchy that rules in the USA has not changed. Buying  dips in  gold/silver has is still a good long term play. Just remember silver is very volatile

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.
  • SLV – Going elliptical

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List can be found in the POSITIONS Section of blog

I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV, GLD, (smaller positions bought on 4/13) EWV, (Note – sold EWV for profit last week) In fact, the single largest investment for a non profit I’m the treasurer of is GLD for the past 5 years.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
April 14, 2011

Top 3 Investments for 2nd 1/4

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Rolling Stone Photo – Wall Street Wives

If you haven’t taken your blood pressure medication this AM – Please take an extra dose before reading below.

Wall Street WivesMatt Taibbi from the Rolling Stone has come up with another jaw dropper. Remember Geithner and Bernanke’s Wall Street Bailout. Seems that the “wives of   JPMorgan bigwigs walked away with $220 million dollars.Opening line of editorial – “Most Americans know about that budget. What they don’t know is that there is another budget of roughly equal heft, traditionally maintained in complete secrecy

The Closing Government Soap Opera. – Remember all the media attention of the $38 billion the Republicans were supposedly cutting from the budget. Two days ago the press went bananas when they found out it was only $14 billion. Yesterday the non partisan CBO put the actual figure at $353 million. Yes, that’s million with an M.

Crony Capitalism - It’s simply not fair to put the blame on the real housewives of of Wall Street or JPM. Now that the Fed was forced to open its books we find out the real husbands at Goldman Sachs got (See Matt Taibbi’s piece) $800 billion from the Fed. Yes, that’s billion with a B.

Get out of Jail Free - The US Treasury Department actually used hash language toward shadow bankers in a sternly worded proclamation Remember the phony foreclosures, robocalls etc. reveled months ago. Billions evaporated thousands lost their homes. Bankers got a tender tap in their wrists. The NYT has finally caught on and its headline story is on No one from Wall Street goes to Jail

GE is to return $3.2 billion tax rebates!? The whole AP story turned out to be a hoax. YOU pay taxes, GE doesn’t. – Bummer

The Prestigious Pinocchio Award. The Japanese government has been less than than honest about the nuclear reactor situation. FYI – TEPCO has just confirmed reactor 4 is open air fussionYANKEE BOB is back in the comments section (scroll down) with an editorial. Here’s a sample – “the gamble with public safety to use Nuclear energy to boil water has failed.”

Maybe we’re more than just a morsal for Wall Street sharks. EW in the comments sections saw Obama’s deficit speech as hopeful – Obama quotes “There’s nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires,” …. “There’s nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and don’t have any clout on Capitol Hill. And this is not a vision of the America I know.”

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Today a format change to focus more time on three investments for the 2nd quarter. But first here’s market news

  • Fed’s ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) & QE 2 is sustaining stock rally and forces anyone who wants a high yield is forces into higher risk stocks,  or junk bonds.
  • Yesterday’s action was no more than a pause (slight uptick) and we’re close, but haven’t reached oversold levels or a buy the dip level yet
  • Paul often makes closing remarks in the comments section of the blog. From yesterday – “If any of you folks like to study the charts, you’ll see on many of the major indicies a clear “double top’ and that often signals coming hell fire and brimstone’s”

___________________

Three Top Investment Areas

Rare Earth Metals - REMX (link to chart)

REMX is the ETF that tracks the major rare earth metal companies. Most data below is from Van Eck Global owner of REMX ETF.

This is a simple supply/demand story. The demand outstrips the supply. China currently provides 97% of rare earth metal production. InDec. of 2010 China announced it would cut exports of rare earth metals 35% because to keep some for their own use. REMX has only 17% exposure to china. It takes a long time to mine these metals so many of the companies REMX invest in have yet to become major producers. Obviously the companies/mines outside China are ramping up production as fast as possible.

Some applications for Rare earth metals include hybrid cars,steel alloys, wind turbines, flat screen TV’s, jet engines & cell phones. So you can understand the demand.

Downside risk – If we fall into a second recession or depression REMX will suffer. However it should outperform because of the supply/demand issue.

Gold - GLD & DGP (2x or ultra long gold)(both ticker symbols are links to charts)

GLD & DGP (2X) are the ETF’s that track gold prices. Obviously DGP carries twice the risk/reward.

Arguably the #1 source for gold information is GFMS Reuters last week featured their supply/demand analysis on both gold and silver. The fundamentals are relevant, but we all know, gold prices move higher on fear of the future.

I follow Jesse’s Cafe Americain on both gold and silver. The technical analysis and inside information is superb. In the future Investors411 will give updates from this site.

SilverSLV & AGQ (2x silver) (both ticker symbols are links to charts)

SLV & AGQ are the ETF’s that track silver prices. Obviously AGQ carries twice the risk/reward.

Silver has more industrial uses. Links to important information on silver above.

If you are considering investing in this area or just want a good laugh you have to watch one of the two bears videos on silver. “You want me to buy more silver? Holy s–t man I’m going to s–t my pants.”

Paul would be a great source on individual gold, silver and rare earth companies if you are interested ask. MCP is the one company that I like in rare earth field. We almost put this on YOUR Stock List #4, but decided REMX would cover the sector.

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List can be found in the POSITIONS Section of blog

I have personal  positions in REMX, RJA, SLV, EWV, (Note – sold UWM into rally) In fact the single largest investment for a non profit I’m the treasurer of is GLD for the past 5 years.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 31, 2011

Shutdown and Stupidity

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Gold

Government Shut Down

The absolute hight of stupidity.

  • Issue #1 is jobs, job, jobs. Without jobs there is no one to pay taxes. Those that have no jobs drain the system by needing more welfare or becoming thieves to survive. Stupid
  • They are arguing over $30 billion when the debt is $13 trillion. This is like arguing over a crum that fell on the floor instead of the huge loaf of bread that is our debt. Stupid

One Solution“We have a one-time, 100 percent tax on all wealth (net worth) of all United States residents, with a $10 million per-person exemption. With household wealth at around $60 trillion, that should be plenty to pay off the accumulated debt and shore up Social Security and Medicare for the next century.” and it would fund all those wars that the military industrial complex needs to grow.

Don’t like that idea- another “The Federal Reserve creates $20 trillion in money but, instead of crediting it to large banks’ accounts at the Fed, it credits it to Treasury’s account. Again, no more debt

Promise that either one would be a one time fix and debt crisis solved. These “convenient concepts” come from the brain of James Kwak at the Baseline Senerio.  For more and is he serious? - here’s the link

Gold and Silver

For the last five years I’ve been the treasurer of a senior center and gold has been our top returning investment.

If you’ve never seen these two bears make a case for something you’re missing a funny and sometimes enlightening video. You may not agree with the doomsday people. I think their case is over the top. But, they do have some valid concepts or flows (moving in that direction)

This is #5 in the series of why by silver. Did you know there are 15 kilograms of silver in each tomahawk missile?

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.58% up
NASDQ +0.72% up
S&P 500 +0.67% up
Russell 2000 +1.31% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Yawn – Another low volume rally. Fed liquidity has a muzzle muzzle on the mouths of bears.
  • Any bears or black swans who have fought this trend or spoken out against it have been slaughtered by Uncle Ben and the Fed.
  • Another $5 billion pumped into economy – Oh and by the way the Fed is now , by far, the biggest holder of US debt
  • Fed POMO all comes to an end on June 30th. – Whose going to buy our bonds/debt then? Of course after July 1 happens, the Fed could say OMG lets do QE #3.
  • Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
  • Big Jobs number on Friday. Means much more for the economy than it does for stocks, Every day foreign consumers are gaining wealth and globalized US companies don’t really care who buys.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.17. Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but it started  a four day bull run that’s stalled out over the last three days and could be turning.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +42.25. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Any significant rally would put the MO over +60 = Neutral/Bearish

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

MO broke its +30 resistance barrier and usually +60  has historically been the level of change – stocks get too overbought. Now is clearly not the time to buy stocks. But to hold or sell.

However the dollar has become the key metric to watch. The dollar is the trump cardIt’s bolded below. There’s a good chance the dollar may have hit a short term top and is ready to fall. This would be bullish especially for gold and silver.

What to watch today - Market movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading just above its 50 DMA. Very Interesting that this latest rally happened without AAPL’s/technologies leadership. Leading sectors rotated to energy & industrials.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up +12% now. MO getting to highwill sell into any rally
  • A Hedge – Sold EWV for 35.55 and UWM for 48,75 – Reasons for sale listed yesterday. The total gain was @+2%

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - I’ve jaw boned this for way too long and waited for the right dip, but missed it.  This is a credible long term asset to have. I’d buy any dip. I do own both in other accounts.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term OutlookCAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
Page: /tag/silver/ : TestLink1 - TestLink2 - TestLink3