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Financial Amnesia

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Old FT Front Page

Since the Editorial boards of the vast majority of US financial journals have yielded to their advertisers or the corporate oligarchy, few papers/jorunals stand out.

One is the Financial Times.

This AM the FTimes is running a story accusing   Wall Street of  “collective amnesia” Investors411 readers know that this collective amnesia is purposeful and enacted so profit can be further privatized and the conseuences (risk) can be further socialized.

“Financial amnesia disarms individuals, the market and the regulator,” … “It causes risk to be mispriced, bubbles to develop and crises to break.”

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Politicizing Science

Michael Mann

We have had an all out attack on science that perhaps stated with trying to prove Cancer had no relationship to cigarette smoking.  They were, for the most part unsuccessful then, but that was decades ago.

Now, Cherry picking data and using a massive political and media machine a corporate oligarchy tries convince an American public that the opposite of science fact is true.

Michael Mann in a TED/PSU lecture/video clearly proves how its done over climate change.

The same kind of McCarthyism is happening in the USA with everything from climate change to evolution to financial meltdown

Quite simply

Ethics and morality are being assaulted by

GREED

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The Dark Side

Ron Paul

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Mitt Romney

Last week Investors411 went over the bright side of Ron Paul. This short video shows the dark side.  The new Iowa front runner proclaims 15 things that are “unconstitutional”

Here’s a sample from Right Wing New’s John Hawkins on the national Republican front runner  “Why Mitt is unelectable.”

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

A Call to Action

Simon Johnson (Former IMF chief economist and MIT Prof.)

You make the difference – The folks at the Baseline Senerio have joined with others, after the President’s speech yesterday to support legislation offered by Sherrod Brown (D – OH) & Ted Kaufman (D- DE) to take stronger action against the shadow banks. (Obama did not endorse this bill) Nobel Prize winner Krugman’s view

I’ve signed their petition and hope you do too LINK

Bottom Line – Since Financial reform bill(s) wind their way through congress a most unusual phenomena is happening – They are getting TOUGHER. Republicans are caving (not a lot but  a significant handful) The harder you push the more protections for  Main Street – YOU, your taxes, your rights, your stock investments – will have.

Consensus on Shadow Banks is starting to move. Shadow’s have even hired and paid a phony front group that has already spent $2,000,000 to pose as a group that wants to break up banks, but actually promotes the opposite. Link to Video

Obviously the outright collapse of shadow banks would be devastating economically. However, what’s needed is legislation with some teeth that protects YOU.

Debate in comments Section

See J Sovjani latest reply – This debate has gone from GM to Dumpsters to Washington Square NYC. . A significant chunk of the folks who are on the private mail list of this blog are artists or craftsmen and you can follow the entire thread by scrolling down at this link

News Junkies

SHerwehe has sen in the following site that lists front pages  of newspapers across the world. I’ve used this site for months and it is really useful because it shows not only the different biases in the USA, but across the world. The US government has a post that actually translates foreign papers, but do not have time to track this down.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Answer -stocks so eat.

The NASDQ had fair sized gains gains in increased, above average volume. The Russell 2000 (small cps) out performed and the other two major indexes inched higher in increased above average volume.  Markets all rallied into the close = Bullish

US equities greeted Obama’s financial reform speech with a rally of almost 100 Dow points (Down @-80 to up +9.37 at close) Obama’s certainly no Teddy Roosevelt. = Bullish

Their is a giant cookie monster of ”programed traders” [ huge institutional investing] that comes at the same time and to the same place (Wall Street) each afternoon and devours all the cookies (stocks) it can eat. Every dip is getting bought no matter the cause. =Bullish

Stocks rallied despite a significant rally in the dollar. The Greek debt situation grows and the dollar is rallying because the Euro is falling. = Bullish

AMZN & MSFT Two tech giants both were down after reporting earnings in after the markets closed yesterday – drops of -5+% in in post market trading, still down but much better in pre market trading= Bearish

Analysis – If markets are down around noon expect the Cookie Monster to eat the cookies, vegetables and whatever is out there

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to +5.49 yesterday.  [Basically, 60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. More sophisticated investors can use the 50 & 200 day MA’s and adjust from there. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. - This is almost right in the middle of NEUTRAL territory
• US Dollar – rose a significant+0.58% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The positive earnings reports are overshadowing the dollar which is in the upper end of a consolidating range between @$80.00 & @$82.20. Dollar at 81.65. If it moves to either side of that range it will impact stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

UWM – Investors – Our long position, ETF, that does basically 2X the Russell 2000 will continue to hold into the weekend. Considering a smaller position in TYH (ETF that does 3X NASDQ) on a dip.

Many of you are reporting excellent results in IMAX, VCI, SHOO, SNDK MSPD & VLTR and others. Do NOT chase these stocks, unless you really know how to day/swing trade – even then most are too overextended to risk a short term buy.  Traders should think more about selling as issues get over extended. Use the basic strategy – see top of blog.

Again McClellan Oscillator is NEUTRAL and a better time to buy (less risk) is when stocks are oversold.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Putting together YOUR Stock List takes a lot of time (every Tuesday), so there is no economics/political section today. Sorry

If you would like to add names to the stock list or want to get on the private mail list that sometimes get additional info – email me at barrjozwicki@gmail.com. Please check out your comments section on right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Despite some bad news on Greek debt and fears of greater financial reform US stocks moved higher in significantly reduced volume.  Moving higher on bad news is a bullish signal

VOLUME – The bible of technical analysis, and virtually all other books on reading chart patterns, Edwards and Magee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, says this, “Volume is of the utmost importance in all technical phenomena.”"Although price action is the most critical of factors in charting, volume tells us the conviction of the marketplace.”  The fact that volume has NOT confirmed the major US indexes move higher over the last 8 months is driving technical analysts to drink.

You have a small core of true believers who are buying and holding and a vast amount of short term traders. The buy and hold investor simply NOT returned to this market.  Without more money coming into stocks its hard to see markets advance – yet they do and in doing so seem to break the basic rules of supply and demand economics.

Bottom Line – Technically I don’t understand why markets are moving higher, but they are. There are fundamental reasons – Stimulus, emerging market growth , etc., that help to justify a rally, but technically you have to at least scratch your head  Old saying, “Markets/stocks can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose a bit to +8.75 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s
  

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From yesterday – “If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.”

YOUR Stock List

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday, you’ll find a lot of winners. One way to back check this is to use the calender at the top of the blog – click on past Tuesdays.

NB -Last Week’s comments in black. This week’s violet. Chart links underlined in Blue

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

• CAAS – Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock Some increase volume behind dip, but at strong support level - A risky Chinese company, but its now or never time to buy the dip
  
• PCLN – Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock Still consolidating after breakout – A buy the dip stock
  
• F – Still going up, but too overextended – wait Huge sell off last week and strong but less volume rally yesterday -Too risky
  
• IMAX Investors411 owns this stock – Went elliptically higher and now must find base. wait. Made a strong move yesterday and broke out of  short term consolidation pattern – A buy the Dip Stock
  
• CSCO, Like AAPL exploded higher, now consolidating A buy the dip stock Seems too over extended from 50 day moving average, but clearly a market leader – Will move with technology
  
• SHOO – failed breakout but still has potential Consolidating in what looks like cup & handle trading pattern – A buy the dip stock
  
• ICON, Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock – Failed breakout back in consolidation pattern – Potential, but too risky
  
• VPRT Falling in heavy volume = bearish – Wait Consolidated and made a move yesterday – Possible breakout candidate
  
• DGIT Thinly traded  Still consolidating in weak volume = bullish A buy the dip stock - A bunch of higher lows over last month in “ascending wedge” pattern & at its resistance level – Potential breakout stock
  
• CTCT Thinly traded - Exploded higher too over extended wait Dropping  – has potential but too thinly traded.
  
• VCI starting to consolidate Still Tempting, but risky Big fall/volume Friday partial recovery yesterday – too risky
  
• CREE -  dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock Still consolidating a buy the dip stock
  
• SNDK – .  dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock Dipped last week and major rally yesterday A buy the dip stock
  
• VSH – .  Dipped/fell in moderate volume. Tempting Strong volume on down days -Weakening
  
• HMIN – Falling Too much downside volume. Rallied in weak volume Too many other stocks look better
  
• RINO – Broke out yesterday in heavy volume = bullish – a buy the dip stock Failed breakout, lower low, Other stocks look better
  
• CTRP – Faces a resistance level & just dipped in weak volume a buy the dip stock Dipped in weak volume last week, rallied off support level – a buy the dip stock
  
• CNAM Went elliptical now finding base. Huge risk but huge reward Wait - Fall in weak volume, two day rally in strong volume – Big risk China stock, but potential big reward. If you got guts a buy the dip play
  

New plays that have similar 3d fundamentals as IMAX. Personally I’m more comfortable with this group because I believe in the fundamentals behind 3d technology.

• DWA (Dreamworks) Consolidating but some big down volume days – wait – rallied yesterday at 50 day moving average – potential. Think their new Dragon 3D movie will be a success and move this stock up.
  
• CNK (Cinemark)  Still a bit over extended – Tempting Consolidated over week & broke out of that pattern yesterday. A buy the Dip Stock
  
• RGC (Regal Entertainment) Too overextended wait for dip.- Tempting Just keeps moving higher

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. New group

• ESRX (Express Scripts) – (see yesterday’s blog) Investors411 own this stock. - Broke out, now a bit over extended wait for dip.
• TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) Gone elliptical – wait for dip. (Sorry had trouble downloading last two charts from Stockcharts)
  

Note – The above section is meant to educate YOU and is basically technical analysis. Many other factors like overall market movement, sector analysis, fundamental analysis, your level of risk and other factors should be considered before buying.

Analysis - Overall market conditions (McClellen Oscillator) are more favorable this week than last. However they are not optimum for buying (see above). 3D stocks and health care sector continue to outperform. Most of these individual stocks do rise in higher volume and fall in lower volume – a bullish sign YOU have certainly chosen some winners.

Personally I  nibbled yesterday ESRX & TYH (an ETF – more tomorrow) and will nibble some more today in a dip.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING