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“Soft Kitty, Warm Kitty

Little Ball of Fur

Soft Kitty Warm Kitty

Purr, Purr Purr”

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Lullaby from Sheldon’s Mom on

TV’s Big Bang Theory.

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Investors411 is Sleeping Late Today,

It hard to get to work when the Stock Market Looks Like This

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After the best January in 15 years, both the bulls and the bears have been caught in a traffic jam for  almost two weeks. A little movement on the bears side recently, but traffic still stalled.

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Comment Section is wide open and there has been some excellent stock advice as well as political/economic commentary

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Toasting the S&P 500

For 7th Straight Year

Investors Dividend Portfolio toasted the S&P 500

Up 19% vs a -0.17% S&P 500 for 2011

See Friday’s blog post.

Here’s the results from our other portfolios.

More information on all portfolios can be found in the

Positions Section

Conservative Portfolio

ETF’s were chosen for 2011 because they have two streams of income

Ticker symbol, dividend, price change, total gain. Dividend gains were computed last January so they may be slightly off

• FLD +4.38, +10.29, = +14.67

• DTW +4.01, +8.22 = +12.23

• DVY +3.79, +7.54 = +11.33

Total +12.74 vs. -0.17% S&P 500.

While the conservative portfolio toasted the S&P 500, it did not do as well as the individual dividend stocks portfolio which was up @ +19%

Moderate Portfolio

These ETF’s were chosen to mirror the S&P 500, but give diversity

• QQQ +2.14
• SPY -0.17
• DIA +5.14
• IWM -6.36
• EEM -19.81
• DBC -0.74
• USO -0.03
• GLD +10.92

Total -1.19 vs. -0.17 for S&P 500

The moderate Portfolio mirrored the S&P, but was about 1% lower. This was because EEM (emerging markets) took a big hit. There was a warning about inflation attached to EEM.

Aggressive Portfolio

These were individual trades/investments made throughout the year and posted in the daily blog. I don’t have the time to go through approximately 225 posts to compile an accurate grand  total. But, I’m confident these choices overall beat the S&P 500. The vast majority of these trades had gains and losses of less than 10%

The most significant trades of the year was the GMCR Put/Call Hedge Trade that made almost +200 See LINK and previous blog posts.

Investors411 will keep a running total of special trades in the Aggressive Portfolio this year.

Your Stock List

Three Your Stock Lists were run in 2011.  Investors411 stopped running YSLs after 6/30 for several months. A wise move. This summer was when stocks took their big hit.

• YSL #4 +18.69 vs S&P +12.39
• YSL #5 +3.64 vs.  S&P +1.60
• YSL +6.50 vs. S&P +9.50

Total YSL +28.83 vs S&P +23,59

Stay tuned for the 2012 Forecasts and some major changes to Investors411 investment Portfolios

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

“The Donald Ducks”

Headline from Politico

Sorry this part crashed on my computer – Back tomorrow. Just one happy face of a happy guy (ex presidential candidate) from the financial elite laughing all the way to the bank – Donald Trump.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell -0.28% yesterday.  Dollar bulls are on a big run that started 8 trading days ago. Any quick look at the tracking stock for the dollar UUP shows massive volume on up days and meager volume on down days – Great news if you are long the dollar, but NOT good news for stocks. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo fell to -33.34. On its way to oversold (@-60) Another bad day or two and we should be ready for at least an oversold bounce. The bullish side of the Neutral/Bullish will grow, the lower we go. = Neutral/Bullish

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Paul’s Corner

Just time for a quick check up of Your Stock List today. Looks like most took a hit today. All of the major averages to a big hit Monday.  Virtually all of the Industry Groups we down/red today. Protect your capital!

• POT sitting on the 200, up 1.34
• BEXP just above the 200, up 0.22
• ABC looks Ok up 0.23
• SAP Doji candle stick (Indecision), just above the 50, -0.24
• KSU sitting just above the 50 -0.27
• JNPR just below the 50, if it crosses up  through the 50 a buy could be considered. -0.51
• RVBD, above the 50 chart Ok. -0.55
• CPHD chart Ok -0.70
• IMAX chart Ok -0.84
• ALTR Chart Ok -1.17
• BIDU looks to be breaking down, not buyable until it reverses, – 3.51
• ADTN, dropped below the 17, sitting on the 50 – 1.21
• PCLN dropped to the 50, – 17.23
• SWKS - 1.10 not buyable until it crosses up through the 50!
• LYB all indicators red, broken down, not buyable at this time. (Gas index down 5% yesterday)
• SPRD all indicators red, sitting below the 50
• RNOW all indicators red, below the 50.

Don’t forget tomorrow May 18th Jeffrey Scott a HGSI user is going to present a HGSI Webinar and will show how he uses HGSI in his successful trading. I invite any of you who are interested in a quality analysis program and building your trading skills to watch the webinar. See if Jeff can find and good stocks in a down market!

The Power Of HGSI Webinar May 18th from 8:00pm to 9:30pm EDT Registration is required and the webinar is free.

LINK

Please note, I am a HGSI user, I pay a monthly fee for the program and I receive no compensation for recommending the product.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Major news yesterday and today is Spanish debt. Spain is a major country in the EU and if Spain goes down all of the EU get shaken to its roots.  This is making the Euro weak and therefore the dollar strong. This is important. Europe got hit by the 2008 financial meltdown and because of how their monatary system is structured its far harder to smooth over the bumps as our FED does.

Additionally the 10 year T bill yield is still rocketing ahead

Too early to tell if this is a much needed and healthy correction in stocks or something deeper. I suspect the first.

There is also plenty of reasons to be fundamentally bullish.

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Spain is Europe’s 4th largest economy and its 10 year T bill is trading at 5.53% (relative to ours at 3.52%). The posablitity in investors/traders mind of run away inflation in Europe and the USA is growing. Stocks have historically handled a beginning of inflation well, but if it gets too large everything suffers. The good news in all of this is deflation (a much more significant problem) seems off the table. Could go on for thousands of words but here’s the

Bottom Line – Quantitative easing over the past 18 months has kept stocks surging and stabilized our economy. Europe is having a major negative impact on us and it looks like right wingers and others are going to challenge or put road blocks in front of our FED.(I’m all for more transparency, but these guys want to destroy the FED – lead by Ron Paul.)

Right now quantitativ easing is NOT having some of its intended effect of keeping the dollar lower and the T bills/bonds yield low.

This is going to make for a bumpy ride and perhaps  changes investment strategy.

• EUO – an ETF that double shorts the EURO
• PST – an ETF that double shorts 7 to 10 year treasuries.

Of course, this would be a buy the dip situation.

Positions

• EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
• UWM – (2x small cap stocks ETF) – 1/2 position sold
• UWM-
• UWM

Putting stop on 1/2 of  last UWM position at what it was bought for. 40.94 or sell 1/2 for minor 1% gain near open. 2% trailing stop on the rest.

Very Interested in UCO – double oil ETF, but still waiting for dip.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

Photo of stabbed NYC Muslim Cabbie.

Mother of All Traffic Jams

Just How fast is China growing? Just how much does China need more infrastructure? – Now a nine day 60 mile long traffic jam outside the capital - Video

US Islamophobia Grows

Allegedly drunk NYC guy cuts throat of cabbie after he responded yes to question –  Are you a Muslim? He’s being charged with hate crime Story

Pop Quiz

I’ll buy dinner to anyone over 40 who gets this right and hasn’t seen the list. It says a lot about where our country is headed. Here’s a  List of the top 50 social media sites on the web. Can you guess who/what is #1? Nasty Hint Obama is #3

Bruce Lee Plays Ping Pong

Phenomenal add run on China TV by Nokia. You’re not going to believe this (Thanks to AG for the find) It takes @ 15 seconds till the OMG part.- VIDEO

Housing & Wealth Creation

Fabulous article by James Kwak at Baselne Senerio. Own a Home or thinking of buying one? You must check out the article and graph

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades.

The Symphony

Because the High Frequency Traders (HFT’s) use their Black Box algorithms to trade across markets there is a  phenomenally higher degree of correlation between stocks, currencies, commodities (especially oil) and other markets. One inverse correlation has become very crucial in this symphony. That’s the inverse relationship between the dollar and US markets. This is why the US dollar is one of the Indexes followed by Investors411.

Yesterday’s Stock Markets

Even the market cheerleaders on the main financial channel CNBC seem to be growling bears about US & therefore world stocks.

A typical rally day in deceased volume. Because of the BB/HFT’s volume is no longer the #1 forecast tool of major indexes.

We again had absolutely horrible housing news that was worse than expected, yet oversold markets rallied.  How markets react to news is a good indicator of the near term future. For now really bad news is built into stock prices.

Today we will have another bad weekly unemployment report. Since we’re still close to oversold on the MO it will probably take some really bad figures to toast stocks.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD)  [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was flat (up a smidge) for third day in a row, +0.14% yesterday.  Two week rally in place. Now facing resistance at 50DMA. Three flat days in a row could signal a reversal of trend & the dollar start to drop. But until this happens, for stocks outlook = Bearish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell -3.08% yesterday. First fall in a 5+ week long rally. Long rallies are typical in the BDI. This could be a reversal of trend and bad for emerging markets. If BDI fall increases today the outlook will change to bearish = Neutral
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to -48.98 Slipped out of, but is still close to oversold territory = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The massive currency/Dollar market is still key to stocks. Fundamentally, parts of Europe are so bad off its hard to see the dollar not rise in relation to the Euro and therefore probably move higher in relationship to all currencies. UUP the dollar ETF is still what to watch.  It goes one way and stocks will go the other.

Yesterday was probably NOT the near term low for US equities. But remember rallies start from oversold bounces. The last oversold bounce saw a 3 day rally, the two before that 3 week rallies. Of course, everything could get shattered if the dollar soars or we have a really really bad weekly employment number.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small positions in EWS (Singapore) USO (commodity-Oil) & slightly larger in TYH

Traders – Bought TYH at 24.68 & sold 1/2 for +3% gain at 25.50 (10% of portfolio position now 5%) Stop set at 24.43 and will move it higher in a rally. Reasoning behind trade – MO oversold. Big dip at open & double bottom formed. The dollar was flat so I pulled the trigger.

Investors – Any time the MO closes below (if you willing to take more risk – close to) -60 and the markets dip further is a chance to purchase one of the long emerging market of energy rich country ETF’s. See List in Positions. It’s safer to do this if the MO is below -80 and still safer if it goes beyond -100

Long Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Is it time for Investors to put on their helmets and head to the bunkers?

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Paul R in the comments section has found a great source describing the BB/HFT traders and consequences of what they do.

Another increased above average sell off that has been typical of the BB/HFT controlled US indexes for many many moons.

Perhaps its time to bring  out the old  Lost in Space Robot with all its bells and whistles and scream DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER DANGER. This was the third big volume significant downside day in the last two months and that almost always means the worst is yet to come (The Hindenberg Omen?) But BB/HFT’s have made a mokery of this kind of technical analysis. So caution is in order but the Robot is peaking out of the closet.

Here’s what’s holding up US stocks (Clearly NOT the US economy which is deteriorating) – Emerging Markets

EEM the ETF for emerging markets was down about 1/2 of US indexes (-0.77%) How long can emerging markets can things to hold together in the USA (see Reading Tea Leaves)

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD)  [Anything price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Doll moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0.27% yesterday.  Almost two week trend = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rally +3.66% yesterday. 5 week trend = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell to -27.32 = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The good – The 5 week rally in the BDI is a clear sign that emerging market growth is continuing. China’s ( the #1 emerging market) stimulus worked, but almost overheated their growth. They have come down into a more normal range and are becoming more self sufficient every day.

The Bad – Back in 2008 Investors411 stated – the economic mess was far, far far, far, far bigger than expected (best example financial sector & this statement is still posted in POSITIONS section of blog) Economic mega trends (see OVERVIEW section of blog) have started to fracture both the USA & Europe economically. Neither has an abundance of cheap oil (peak oil mega trend)

The Ugly – Obama’s stimulus plan & tax cuts have halted the fall, but the jobs are still going overseas because of globalization mega trend. More jobs will be lost as the will for more stimulus fades. It’s election time and even a $60 billion (may have figure wrong) aimed directly at small business (“the engine of jobs growth”) and formerly supported by many Republicans was filibustered by those same Republicans. Nothing will get done in the next two months.

Longer term - 10s of millions of new jobs are being created each year in emerging markets. Millions more are graduating from universities in these emerging markets. When a computer tech will work 12 hour shift in China for $0.75 an hour and the same tech in the USA costs $18.75  for an 8 hour shift, who is Apple going to hire? (I made up the figures)

Just finished writting this and I’ve talked myself into and even more bearish position.  So lets go with the kitty in a helmet

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - EWZ & EWS sold 1/2 of EWS for 0.5% gain

Because of yesterday’s meltdown  held off on buying USO & will start with a smaller 2% stake in a dip today.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Lights Going Out Across America

NYT’s/Princeton Nobel prize winning Paul Krugman editorial certainly not a rosy forecast.

This is My Lucky Day

Great Video sent in by E.R. Enjoy! Also from same site totally different but entertaining video from flixxy.com

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Same Mantra for the month -The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Paul R in the comments section has found a great source describing the BB/HFT traders and consequences of what they do.

Here’s a look ahead for Wednesday market.

The big news out of yesterday was the Fed meeting and suggesting Long Term Interest Rates can go even lower. That’s bullish for stocks.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar had a huge rally but ended the day up only +0.11%. Rally (+0.85% higher) that collapses is usually bad news for dollar and good news for stocks , but we are still holding support.= Neutral/Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) kept accelerating its move  higher (+4.64%) = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [Basically longer term  - the rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell or short stocks & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell to +7.68 = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The BB/HFT traders because of their size, scope, & frequency are creating correlations across diverse markets. They trade futures in currency, commodities, stocks and other markets.  What this has done is create a greater unity in these markets. One prime example is the dollar going down for a few days almost always means stocks will go up.

While normal investors or traders can’t match the speed or size of the BB/HFT’s, the simple advantage we have, is we can watch their direction. Because of their big size hey leave footprints/trends.  Simply follow the trend.

Longer term – What’s growing the fastest is emerging markets and the US companies that export to them. If the dollar keeps falling, US exports will cost less and US stocks will grow.

Short Term – Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. There’s problems out there from a phony opaque financial system in the US to an overheated housing bubble in China. At sometime major problems like the two examples or others make noise and markets tumble.

The three indexes above are guideposts to what’s happening or will happen. Right now the major fight is over a key resistance/support level of the dollar and it looks like the dollar bears might win. This would be good news for stock bulls.

Our key forecasting tool is the MO is in Neutral. This gives us “wiggle room” both on the up and downside.(see above)

However, despite some potential good news in BDI & dollar, when you look at the chart of the MO you’ll see a series of lower highs and lower lows. This is NOT good. For those who know more about technical analysis the MO has also broken down through a “head and shoulders” pattern. Again NOT good.

Therefore, despite some encouraging news in the dollar & the BDI it looks like in short term we are heading lower.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions .

• EWZ (Brazil – Now 5% of portfolio position) Bought at 69.80. Currently at 70.50. Considering selling remainder.
• TYH (3x technology – 2% of portfolio position) Bought at 31.76 Sold yesterday at 31.08  for -2% loss

Mea Culpa – Investors411 has brought this up a handful of times yet failed to take action each time its happened. Buy GLD on dips.

The Bulls seem to be loosing control and the MO is in the middle of neutral territory.  Perhaps the MO will drop low enough to consider buying again.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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The China Trend

Pew Dec 9th 2009 poll showed American’s believe China is more powerful economically than the USA. 44% of Americans believe China is “larger economically.” It’s NOT, by a wide margin, but its growing a whole lot faster.

Perception is often far more influential than reality. Threat’s why our culture spins & manufactures the news instead of reporting it. Bottom line here is China sneezes and the rest of the world will catch a cold. They used to say this about the USA, but times are changing.

There is one major problem in China’s future and that is when will China’s housing bubble burst? When this happens everything from politics to economics across the world will take a hit.

The good news is there has not been shadow bank massive over leveraging of China’s housing problem.

The bad news is 65 million new vacant apartments and the above housing graph. For more see this LINK

Bottom Line – When this bubble bursts everything from stocks, politics, employment, to even your houses value will feel the impact.  This is the #1 DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER DANGER that hangs over the world’s economy today. You could argue that  a phony opaque financial system is a bigger bubble, but that’s hidden from the perception of most Americans.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Same Mantra for the month -The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Paul R in the comments section has found a great source describing the BB/HFT traders and consequences of what they do.

“Stock futures retreated Tuesday (today) as investors grew a little more cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and after China’s economy showed some signs of slowing down.” – from AP

If your an Investors411 reader, you know the BDI dropped 60% over the last 3 months – Of course China’s imports dropped. However we have seen a recovery over the last two weeks in the BDI.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar rose a heathy +0.38% on Friday. Now sitting again directly on its support level = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is accelerated its move  higher = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) Check out the link to the new chart. Lots more data. [Basically longer term  - the rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell or short stocks & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +40.12 = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

From Yesterday – “There is a 5 week bullish trend. Benchmark S&P 500 at 1121 and every stock analyst watching the resistance levels around 1130.”  Yesterday the S&P closed at 1127.79.

Yesterday was “Magic Monday” where the breakout was supposed to happen. It didn’t and that’s probably going to make the BB/HFT traders anxious.  We tested the 1130 SPX number and the Bearish algorithms of the BB/HFT’s kicked in.

May be wrong, but yesterday sure looked like a day that the bulls legs got weary.

I’ve mentioned “wiggle room” for the MO in the past week or so of up dates. This exists still on the upside, but it comes more into play if the bulls are in charge. The distance to the downside (-60 is a lot further away than +6o) for the MO at +40.12 is far greater

Short term traders who are experienced could trade the wiggle room, but long term investors simply wait for an MO below -60. Be patient it will come.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions .

• EWZ (Brazil – 10% of portfolio position) Bought at 69.80. Currently at 71.12. – 3 times its been up close to 4% in the last few trading days, but has failed to make the 5% profit figure originally projected to take profits. Sold 1/2 for 71.22 yesterday for a measly +2% profit. There is still some hope of building the remaining EWZ into a long term position, but its fading.
• TYH (3x technology – 2% of portfolio position) Bought at 31.76 Currently at 32.26 Considering selling this position ASAP

In trading, one major key is to cut any potential loss and let your winners ride.

Long Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Gulf Oil Spill & the Financial Crisis

Bob Kuttner, often mentioned in Investors411, explains why the Gulf Oil Spill is almost exactly like the Financial Meltdown. [Bob is from my hometown and used to endorse my wife when she ran for school committee]

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Significant Down day in mixed light volume = Moderately Bearish

Massive amount of bad news – N. Korea, BP failed to plug oil, Israel/Turkey/Gaza. Surprised markets did NOT drop more. = Bullish

MO getting close to Oversold = Bullish

Expect Fed and other central banks to prop up Euro again = Bullish

In the long run price fixing rarely works. This is what our Fed and other central banks are doing to the Euro. However, as long as investors are willing to buy government bonds at a low price the situation will hold. Best read of tea leaves – Don’t see any signs of impending breakdown. = Bullish

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell to -50.19 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is nearing OVERSOLD territory.  How the MO works.
• US Dollar –  The dollar rose +0.03% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. Currency markets are now being directly manipulated by out Fed and other central banks. This manipulation to keep the Euro from falling = Bullish.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Have NOT had a chance to update last weeks trade.

YOUR Stock List

Caution - This is mostly just technical analysis and lots of other factors enter into a decision to buy or sell.

Terminology

• 50 Day Moving Average of price- blue line on chart = 50DMA
• 200 Day Moving Average - red line on chart = 200DMA
• Ticker symbol for each stock is a link to a chart.
• Volume - Horizontal red (down days)and green (up days) line at bottom of chart show volume
• * Owned positions
• “Volume good” - translation – relative to major indexes individual stock is looking good – probably more upside volume on rally days than downside volume on toasting days.

Most of you are looking for longer term buys. Remember Stocks are in most cases riskier than most ETF’s. Our main strategy is to buy the dip of a stock that is trending higher.

Relativity – The last YOUR stock List was done on 5/18

• The Dow was above 10,600. Now the Dow this AM is just above 10,000 = almost -6% lower
• MO was at -68 then and -50 now = conditions were more oversold then than now, but still oversold.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

• AAPL . @+1% since 5/18. Last big cap tech stock left standing. Has held up pretty well. Caution – Chart shows its near strong resistance level. Formed double bottom = Bullish Should continue to outperform. Buy the Dip
• SHOO @-6 Chart shows lower highs and lower lows. Old favorite that has produced in past in bearish pattern – Gone.
• *ICON @-6% Another series of lower highs and lower lows – Gone
• DGIT @+0 Firm tend line higher. Higher highs and lows. Good volume. Dipped down @5% from high three days ago. Has had 10% dips in past. Buy the Dip
• *VCI. @-2% Has series of higher highs and lows. Good volume. Big fall -5+% in moderate/weak volume yesterday. Buy the Dip
• SNDK @+5% Broke out to new high and is falling back to breakout level in weak volume. Buy the Dip
• CTRP @-0% Stock has big swings and trouble getting past strong resistance at @42. But series of higher lows & decent volume make it a potential winner – Buy the dip
• *ESRX - @-2% Still outperforming markets, Volume good. Has strong resistance level at @105. Consolidating. Future Breakout candidate. Buy the dip
• *IMAX @-15% Investors411 has sold 3/4 of this position. Our +60% gains are melting away. Dangerous head and shoulders trading pattern forming. Volume not good. At critical juncture. Sell into rally.
• MSPD @-8% Lower lows and lower highs. Oversold right now but pattern broken.

Fresh Five – 5 new stocks

• OSTK (Overstock.com) Exploded higher in early April & May. Now consolidating. Dipped last 3 days in weak volume. Getting close to rising 50DMA. Buy the Dip
• JAS (Jo Ann Stores) Has had trouble (like ESRX) getting past resistance level above 47. Good volume. Dipped last 2 days after attempted breakout failed. In trading range between @40 &  @47 Outperforming.  Buy the Dip
• BIDU (Baidu INC – China’s Google) Outperforms. Broke out/soared  in May & has pulled back. Support at rising 50DMA. Buy the Dip
• SAM (Boston Beer Co.)Great Beer Co. going elliptical on breakout run higher. Wait for correction
• EVVV (ev3 Inc.) Had a HUGE +17% move yesterday in giant volume. Wait for correction (Last 2 both have lots of potential)

On the whole YOUR stock list outperformed major markets over the same period of time. Since generally the stocks chosen have a higher Beta (more volatile) you’d expect them to do worse.

Since Central Banks around the world are flooding the currency markets with money to stabilize the Euro its hard to see another major leg down in stocks right now. Remember, if Euro goes down, the dollar goes up and that hurts stocks.

BP/Transocean/Halliburton, N Korea, Euro Debt, Israel/Turkey/Gaza issues have all seemed to have been priced into the market. Overall, for long term investors still = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

Politically the Obama administration, as every administration before him, will bend over backwards to keep stocks moving higher into elections.

Traders – You’d like the McClellen Oscillator (MO) to be lower, but a short term  trading window is decent. NOT great.

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Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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Nuclear Power

Editorial from Yankee Bob (bolding/color/format mine) in response to my including nuclear power as part of comprehensive energy plan that focused on alternative sources.

Why the hell would you support Nuclear energy??!!

There is no more expensive way to boil water then Nuclear. It’s the most expensive way to produce power when you consider the social costs.

• The deaths from radiation releases that are routine and routinely labeled as safe render it a loser.
• There is no safe place to store the tons and tons of waste unless you’d like to store it under your bed!
• The waste has to be shipped via truck or rail around the country. Sooner or later there will be a deadly accident or terrorists will hijack it.
• The waste will be deadly for 100s of thousands of years. Nice of us to pass the risk on to future generations.

If nuclear is so wonderful,

• why does the industry need the government to guarantee loans so reactors can be built?
• Why does the taxpayer have to assume the risk and get stuck for the tab even if they never produce a watt of electricity??!!
• If Nukes are so safe why does the government have to insure them because private companies won’t?
• What happened to the market place providing solutions?

This new nuke tech they are planning on building does have design problems and has not yet been certified by the regulatory agencies. It’s nuke industry propaganda that is touting their safety,no one else. when was the last time cost analysis factored in the cost of decommissioning a plant? They don’t! What is the cost of the public subsidies for guaranteed loans and gov insurance?

By the way,if you have a meltdown and lose a whole state,do you really think the gov will pay off on the loss of property to common citizens or just corporations? Why can’t we apply an equal amount of public subsidies to good clean solar or wind or geo thermal?

And lastly,without Homer’s Nuke plant making piles of plutonium and where would the weapons industry be. First ,they depended on it for making nuclear weapons and now they make a s–t load of the enriched armor piercing stuff that we have littered Kuwait and Bosnia and especially,Iraq with and it’s probably responsible for the Gulf War Syndrome. Why would you be in favor of Nuclear power? Eventually,we will lose a city or a state.

A shorter rebuttal from John Sovjani

Bob; I think nuclear should be part of the solution. Japan and France get most of their electricity from it. As Tom Freidman has said, we invented and developed it and now other countries are taking it and running away with it. If subsidies weren’t given, which energy tech would succeed in the market place? Also, which technologies do we have now that are proven and how long it will take any of these to have a significant impact without subsidies? Was it 10 years for approval for windmills off Cape Cod?

Have an opinion? Let it be heard in the comments section of the blog Nuclear energy, Immigration & Fixing Shadow financials are the latest topics – but anything goes.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

From Monday – “Sell in May and stay away” an old Wall Street saying.

This is the third or fourth “Distribution” day for major US indexes. Distribution = big, increased, above average volume associated with a major (biggest since 2/4) selling day. Technically 3D days (a pun) is about as big a signal of a market reversal there is, especially when rally days have so little volume. = BEARISH

Technically almost every analyst sees two major obstacles – We reached a “Fibonacci retracement number for the benchmark S&P 500. and US markets are at the place they were before the Lehman Brothers meltdown sparked the massive selloff. = Bearish

This added to a roller coster markets (up, down, up, down), which usually indicates a top has the boys and girls who live by technical analysis running for cover. = Bearish

Lots of analysts specifically  blamed yesterdays massive selling on Greeks who protested austerity measures as conditions for loans. They like most American want to see the Greek bankers pay more. The demonstration was the small picture. Markets selling off so much on this relatively minor news = Bearish

The real problem is in all the PIIGS in Europe got nailed when their bank, like ours were got over leveraged. There are other causes but  over leveraged loans have played a huge role across the world = Bearish

The Dollar (see below) is a major fundamental problem to recovery. As the dollar moves higher two negative factors come into play

• Oil prices, tied to dollar, also move higher. May & June historically have been period oil prices increase before summer driving season.
• US exports cost more abroad, because the dollar is more expensive and this cuts profits. = Bearish

Analysis - Big red bear paw prints all over the place. (see above) This time a low volume rally is probably just not going to cut it and traders will sell into the rally.

About the best hope to stem the tide is improvement in the employment numbers on Thursday. We also have a strong earnings season = Bullish

However, What Investors see, impacting those strong earnings is

• Higher gas prices
• Higher costs to export goods
• Continuation of European debt problem
• No solution American shadow banking problems.

Perhaps we will get a weak volume rebound today.  However these weak volume rebounds are on very thin ice when traders see such massive volume behind sell offs. So the roller coaster ride is probably going to finish where many coasters do – down from the top.

1168+ The 50 DMA & 1150+ (an old high) are two major support levels on the benchmark S&P 500 now at 1173.60

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator fell dramatically  to -46.43 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – The MO broke through a strong support level at -33 support level. Breaking down through support almost always means there is more downside to come.  However support levels do put up resistance to further falls.
• US Dollar – Had a HUGE breakout and was up +1.16% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important Dollar closed at $83.83. The breakout of the trading pattern to a new high for the dollar focus almost all eyes on the growing value of the US dollar. Rising dollar almost always = falling stocks. The dollar is rising and falling because of the fluctuations in European currencies = Greek debt.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Caution – From Monday -The stocks in  YOUR Stock list are especially vulnerable to a sharp correction in the market.

Caution – From Tuesday- More and more US equities are looking like they have reached at least a short term high.  The jobs report on Thursday is critical to advancing markets.

Long Term Outlook – In anticipation of the S&P 500 (click on link to chart at side of blog) breaking through its 50 DMA the long term outlook is going to get downgraded to NEUTRAL.  This may be jumping the gun,but the momentum is with the bears.

YOUR Stock List from last Tuesday. Right now because all stocks could be taking a major correction it is far more significant to focus on the  BIG PICTURE than individual stocks.

Yesterday Investors sold 1/2 of its EWZ position (Brazil) that was bought  many months ago for a profit. The last 1/2 is down from where it was bought. This leaves Investors411 with under 10% position in stocks. (See positions section) Holding onto long term positions in IMAX & ESRX

The good news is as the McClellan Oscillator falls (especially below -60 = Oversold) Investors411 will start buying/nibbling again. Hopefully, more on this tomorrow. What too look for are stocks bucking the trend. (more tomorrow)

Note 2/4 was the last time we had a bigger than yesterday’s sell off and that’s 7 days before Investors411 started to buy. – We all had a good run then. Let’s hope the same pattern sets up.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING