Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
May 31, 2012

Assaults on Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Remote Control

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How YOU are CONTROLLED

Framing & Buying

Democracy

(A Multi Part Series)

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The US Supreme Court Passed

The infamous Citizens United by

a 5 to 4 vote.

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ALL 5 votes for changing

the laws governing elections

were made by

RIGHT WING

Justices

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As Democracy Withers

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“Ask NOT what you can

do for your country”

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Ask What  price  that

Politician or Media Outlet

can be bought for.

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How Easy is it to Form a Corporation?

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Any Plutocrat with $49

can form a Corporation and

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  • Create A Super PAC
  • Give Unlimited Contributions
  • Give Hidden Contributions
  • Coordinate with Political Candidates
  • Buy YOUR Democracy

LINK for more Info

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A more Transparent & Bloody

Assault on Democracy

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Syria

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  • Latest from correspondent within Syria at BBC


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STOCKS

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Cartoonist forgot the Irish Iceberg

Otherwise accurate & ominous

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The EU is the world’s great

hope for Democracy.

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You have to have a functioning Democracy to join. One wonders if the USA would now qualify in light of  our Supreme court’s Citizen’s United decision.

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Timeline of Known Events

Impacting Stocks

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  • Irish Elections this week
  • 1st Friday in June – US unemployment figures.
  • June 7th – Important meetings in EU
  • June 17th Greek elections
  • June 19th & 20th – Our Fed meets.

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Austerity

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The world may be finally waking up to the fact that this whole ultra right wing/tea party concept of

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Austerity NOW  presents

a far greater risk of

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DEPRESSION

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rather than

a simple solution.

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In fact those cans that that are supposed to be insecticide in the cartoon should be considered food supplements instead.

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Our Canary In a Coal Mine

Stock Market(s) Barometer

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The Canary may not be Dead Yet

But the yield on the 10 year Spanish bond

is rising close to the 7.00% Danger Zone.

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Today  a huge drop – LINK

6.45% at 8:20 EDT

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So Stocks should rally

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NB.- Paul has picked up on the fact that AAPL rose yesterday, despite a stock  meltdown.


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No changes in LTO till Spanish bonds close below at least 6.25%.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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May 30, 2012

Democracy For Sale

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Damn Proud

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Both my wife  and I last night were

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Damn Proud

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in voting for Brookline

to join the other 50+ towns in MA

and 5 state legislatures in the USA

to Repeal  the Supreme Court’s

Citizens United Ruling.

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From Now on

411′s Major political focus

will be the fight for


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In the USA

Finis


.


.


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October 5, 2010

We The Wealthy & Corporate Giants

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

DeclarationIndependence.jpg

We the People? or We the Wealthy People & The Giant Corporations.

Iraq

Still in chaos following elections almost 8 months ago. Pro Iranian Mullah Sadr has joined one side giving the side of former president and Sadr a clear advantage. Longest time any country has taken after election to form government.

We The Corporation

On Feb. 22 in a 5 to 4 vote the Supreme court  struck down federal regulations that restrict the amount of money corporations can put toward political advertising during elections.

  • Now, any corporation can legally give millions to a candidate while YOU are restricted financially.
  • What’s worse - Any millionaire can for a nominal fee form a dummy corporation by incorporating and directly give hidden money to a candidate or attack add group.

Money is the mother’s milk of politics and obviously this ruling puts both corporate power and individual wealth above the voice of we the people. Yes democracy has changed as both major parties have been lavished by corporate buying power. This holds especially true for what Tom Friedman termed the Tea Kettle Party.

History is full of wealthy oligarchies falling to people power. The 20th century is a great example of the rise of democracies. It is disheartening to see the world oldest running democracy move in the opposite direction.

Yet, at some point  in time people stop thinking  “about what happens one or two steps ahead” (from mathematician John Paulos – see blow) and wake up. Example – Tea Kettle platform (Tea Party) A tax cut for the wealthy, more foreign wars, and cutting taxes on huge corporations is going to decrease the deficit for our kids.

Warren Buffett says it best – “It’s class warfare, my class is winning, but they shouldn’t be.” Source for this & other Buffett quotes.

Firefighters and Homeowners

The comments section always has some of the best editorials and news. Paul R on the privatization of fire departments.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.72% down
NASDQ -1.11% down
S&P -0.80% down
Russell 2000 -1.45% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Stocks fell primarily because of the rise in the dollar. (see below)

John P Hussman PhD is a mathematician who predicted the recession. He often comes up with some interesting mathematical models for what’s happening. His Oct. 3rd newsletter

His view -”To some extent, I view current market conditions as something of a “Ponzi game” in that valuations appear neither sustainable nor likely to produce acceptably high long-term returns, and speculators increasingly rely on finding a greater fool.”

Hussman Quotes mathematician John Paulos on human nature and stock markets - “people generally worry only about what happens one or two steps ahead and anticipate being able to get out before a collapse… In countless situations people prepare exclusively for near-term outcomes and don’t look very far ahead. They myopically discount the future at an absurdly steep rate.” Undoubtedly, we have periodically missed returns due to our aversion to risks that rely on the ability to find a “greater fool” in order to get out safely. But it is important to recognize that speculative risks are not a source of durable long-term returns.”

With the extremely light volume and the dominance of market manipulators (BB/HFT’s etc) Investors411  is taking the position that these guys have a pretty good call on what’s happening. Therefore, a cautious approach based on the MO, the dollar, the BDI and major support resistance levels seems prudent. (see below).

The one differing point of view with Hussman is that emerging market are increasing becoming stronger and are more able to fend for themselves. Therefore the US can catch a cold economically and stocks can still rise. Just hope we don’t get the flu or worse.

Earnings season starts Thursday with Alcoa reporting and bloom next week.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose  +0.45% Monday.  We had the biggest rally in the dollar in over a month. Today will act a confirmation of the rally. We could see a reversal of the trend.  For stocks falling dollar trend is = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.06% Monday.  An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. Now consolidating for last few sessions = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]   Fell to -7.92. Still lots of room to move higher or lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

From yesterday – “Hard to see any serious stock reversal with the dollar continuing to fall. The BB/HFT’s algorithms seem to be set to buy the dip.” - The dollar have its biggest single day rally in a month and this reversed stock market mo jo. A one day reversal is obviously NOT a trend.

Traders – The market manipulators have been “buying the dips”- like yesterday’s fall of the MO into negative territory. Those who are looking for a safer entry may wait till -20 on the MO or more.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)  One of several foreign ETF’s that have broken out and starting to get over extended.
  • USO (price of oil/commodity). Exploded through resistance level and nearing 5 month high. Part of this is tied to dollar falling.
  • SSO (2x what S&P does)  Still held onto last 1/2 of SSO. But will place another 2% trailing stop loss today.

Traders – Will continue to use/ buy SSO & TYH on dips if MO falls to @-20. For concepts on individual stocks see Paul R.’s always enlightening comments on right side of blog.

InvestorsEWS and USO are getting over extended from their base. I like to sell 1/2 the position and let the rest ride as long as I have @ a 10% profit.  Will buy back in at next dip. I am looking forward to building a larger position in both. Will add other foreign ETF’s along with UCO (@2x USO on bigger dips) See Positions section.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 26, 2010

Obama Brian Freeze

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Obama_Hoover

Obama’s Brain Freeze

Obama is seeking to Freeze many Domestic programs headlines the NYT today. Also check out Bob S’s & Mama Jama’s recent comment on right side of blog.  We have the answer as to what Obama would cut - domestic programs.

Here we are with a 10% jobless rate and well over 16% jobless rate if you count those no longer on the rolls. US Corporations from IBM to Apple  are growing because they are growing their investments (now well over 50%) overseas. Housing numbers still hurting, banking mess not fixed and the vast majority of US workers and unemployed believe we are in a recession and Obama freezes domestic spending.

It’s a huge flip flop Stimulate the economy to create jobs – now a year later he cut domestic spending and guess what’s going to happen to jobs & the economy.  Job loss has decreased from -700,000 to about -50,000 per month. Not bad . However, we are still NOT anywhere close to creating the kinds or number of jobs (+250,000 a month) it takes to stimulate a jobs recovery. Take $300 billion of the stimulus away in domestic cuts and hopes of a recovery will evaporate.

When the jobs picture flattens or worsens and Obama asks for more $ to stimulate it you will have a flip flop flip

So maybe this will buy Obama a few points of popularity this week, but it is just what Herbert Hoover did and FDR did. They took away the stimulus too soon and in both cases the depression got a whole lot worse. Bob S first mentioned the FireDogLake site but it has an excellent compilation of criticism on Obama’s move

We the Corporation

Common Cause and Talking Point Memo are both reporting that the recent Supreme Court decision (see past few investors411) opens the way for Foreign Investors/governments who own chunks of US corporations or whose companies are registered in the USA to contribute to US campaigns.

Example  A Saudi Prince or wealthy Chinese investor (really their government) who owns say @ 5% of a US shadow bank will have a lot more power to intimidate or influence any candidate than.  Foreign investors have over the last decade bought huge hunks of American companies and are very influential in corporate board rooms. You the far less wealthy  taxpayer and voter will soon have even less power in YOUR democracy than rich Communists or Arab dictators

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.23% down
NASDQ +0.25% down
S&P500 +0.46% down
Russell2000- +0.16% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Stocks rallied a bit in decreased volume. Volume,our #1 confirmation factor of price move, is still very Bearish. We’ve had at least 3 significant falls in BIG increased volume. This is enough distribution (major players moving to sidelines) to turn a market.

AAPL reported after markets close d. This is one of the stocks whose results can move markets. Last evening there was no change in price after its report. Lots of news surrounding a new Apple product Wednesday

Fed meets over next two days – expect little/NO change.

Bernanke reconfirmation vote – Looks like he will get reconfirmed and that should help stocks. But two problems –

  1. he/the Fed will be weakened because the Fed chair usually almost unanimous
  2. The Fed is like everything else from the Supreme Court on down an almost totally political organization. Any appearance of his independence was shattered by him lobbying senators for his appointment.

State of the Union – Markets are worried about what Obama will do about shadow banks. See Sunday’s and Monday’s Investors411 for more on this. We need to fix the too big to fail systemic problem – this will hurt stocks, especially financials in the short term – but stocks, our democracy and our country will be better off in the long term .

Significant indexes

  • McClellan Index at -64.84 =  still significantly oversold.  (see Sunday’s Investors411 for more)

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Did not pull trigger on any longer term ETF investments. Waiting for state of the Union address to see what Obama does about Shadow banks.

YOUR Stock watch list

NB – I feel much more confident with ETF’s because they reflect global trends than individual stock. Too many things can go wrong with individual stocks.

  • SEED In a buy the dip position directly above 50 day moving average
  • AAPL obviously a market mover who again is sitting on its 50 day.
  • AMZN Lower highs lower lows on chart – removed from list
  • HMIN - Failed breakout . China play. Will recover when  China does.  Will drop from list soon
  • CAAS CAAS hanging in there 50 day moving average.
  • PCLN Fell below 50 day moving average, but no big volume on downside move. A potential buy in any market reversal.
  • F Now less over extended.
  • DRWI New – Big exporter to China -  Was too overextended to buy, and now only a bit overextended. No big volume as stock dropped= good sign. Potential buy the dip.
  • ENOC New – Reduces costs for utilities – No big volume behind its recent fall. Potential but the dip when it hits 50 day.
  • ATHN New - Software reduces costs for health care - Broke its longer term bullish trend in big  volume – Will drop from list soon.
  • IMAX Great long term chart – falling back to its 50 day moving average. Still a buy the dip opportunity

All these are better buys in an oversold market. That condition exists NOW.

The problem is not knowing how aggressive Obama is going to be about shadow banks/too big to fail institutions.  We should have a good idea by state of the Union – Wednesday night.  You could gamble either way.

Caution – I have continually overestimated Obama when it comes to almost everything. He may be all talk about business accountability and the Paul Volker/Elizabeth Warren faction within his government will loose.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010. Sorry have not had a chance to work on this last weekend.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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January 24, 2010

Dr. Jykell& Mr Hyde

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Poster from 1880

Your Comments

The Day Democracy Died – or the Corporate takeover of America – has received more of YOUR comments (7 public and 4 personal) than any other editorial. We the People , in the USA,  has become We the Corporation. Check out all the insightful public comments (scroll down). Most are listed on the right side of blog.

Fundamentally Democracy has changed in the USA. Investments are taxed at 15% and working class Americans are taxed at

  • $8350 to 33,950 = 15%
  • $33,950 to 82,250 = 25%
  • $82,250 to 171,550 = 28%
  • 171,550 to 372,950 = 33%
  • above 372,950 = 35%

Bottom line here is that our tax structure encourages investment/gambling on corporations for a living rather than working for a living. People like me are spending more and more time investing/gambling , in part because of the lower tax rates rather than working.

Bottom Line This adds to the destruction of the work ethic in America . It also make the wealthy who own most stocks, (trust fund children, hedge fund managers, those in the ultra upper class) wealthier. Again the corporations win and working Americans loose.

Even Investors411 is kind of a Dr. Jekyll & Mr Hyde by offering investment/gambling advice while at the same time recognizing that we are all (as one of you put it) on the Titanic (perhaps a better name would be the Good Ship Democracy) rushing from one side to the other.

There is a quantum shift in that investment advice below

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.09% down
NASDQ -2.67% down
S&P500 -2.21% down
Russell2000- -1.79% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

US stocks got toasted in HUGE volume – AGAIN – Technically – It’s starting to look like a market that is going elliptical to the downside  or a climax sell off. Four reasons were given for stocks big drop this week.

  1. China – China was going to tighten credit and therefore growth would slow.  The BDI which measures the flow of goods, specially China imports shows no signs of collapsing  (see below)
  2. Obama will go after shadow banks . If successful this would mean to big to fail firms like Goldman Sachs will be broken up into several pieces.  All the shadow banks can now (Supreme Court decision) spend whatever they want (including your tax dollars and the trillions that the Fed is loaning them at 0%) to prevent this.  It’s an election year and within the Obama administration Bernanke, Geithner & Larry Summers are solidly behind the too big to fail banks. Summers even helped to write the legislation that created shadow banks.
  3. Bernanke will not get reappointed – Bernanke was one of the arsonist who brought the world to edge of an economic meltdown and one of the firemen to bail it out. If Bernake’s appointment goes down so will stocks. The uncertainty created by a new Fed chair would hurt stocks. But according to most reports Bernanke has won needed support over weekend .
  4. There is no V shaped recovery – My best read of the tea leaves is they are right as far as the economy/jobs are concerned. But earnings reports are showing a lot more  big companies with international exposure are beating earnings on the top and bottom lines.

Relevant indexes

  • McClellan Index ($NYMO) at -79.33 = significantly oversold .  Well beyond the  @-60 or oversold level.
  • BDI -  The BDI/China has come down from highs in mid November. The Baltic Dry Sea Index has leveled off over the last month and started up the last two days.

Two events, outside of earnings which have been rather  good, significantly impact stocks - The Bernanke appointment (Tuesday) and Obama’s State of the Union (Wednesday)

Long term Outlook has changed to NEUTRAL because some key technical levels were broken in big volume.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

I’ve set up two charts. Put them on a split screen and compare. Both are 18 month charts McClellan Oscillator & the S&P 500 Notice that only 4 times in the last 18 month has the McClellan dropped below 80.  Each time it rebounded. It did reach @120 – 3 times  The Oct. 2008 meltdown, The March lows after the Obama election and a 6+% November correction .  3 times the McClellan has reached 80 and rebounded. Once it reached 100.

Bottom Line – chances are good we are going to see some sort of rebound this week. US markets are oversold and could go lower, but this looks like a good place to add 10 to 20% .  If McClellan goes lower (past 100) I’d add more. Fundamentally -  the situation is no where near as bad as it as at the beginning of 2009.  Working class American’s are going to suffer – but stocks with International exposure to emerging markets are going to flourish.

Everybody else is selling, now we start to buy.

SELLING & BUYING

More on exact buys and Sells on Monday.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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January 22, 2010

The Day Democracy Died

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Psycho House

1/21/2010

The Day Democracy Died

We the People , in the USA,  just became We the Corporation . In a real sense all campaign finance reform has been virtually abolished . The US Supreme Court in a partisan 5-4 decision gave corporations and their lobbyist (or any entity) the permission to spend whatever they want on any election . Any candidate who dares stand against any wealthy special interest can be threatened and overwhelmed by money in an election. For more read the lead NYT editorial The Court’s Blow To Democracy

It may take a few years for the real impact to be felt. Here are s ome examples

  • Locally Developers and corporations will be far more able to buy town and state politicians who appoint the local zoning boards and make the laws. If they want to put a strip mall next to your home and crush the value of the houses in your neighborhood they can.  Businesses on the local and state level will get to pay less taxes and YOU will have to pay more.
  • Big Shadow Banks – YOU bailed out the big banks for their mistakes and they got HUGE bonuses. Forget Obama’s declaration to fight the Shadow Banks. Goldman Sachs (4.3 billion in profit last 1/4) and the other shadow banks know can throw billions at politicians that oppose any taxpayer bailout. The bailout era may have  just begun .
  • Military Industrial Complex – Any weapons company knows it needs a war and fear mongering to grow profits.  Now they can spend whatever they want. The criteria for choosing a weapon will also change from its effectiveness to whichever company has the most money to intimidate a politician. If a poll doesn’t support a war/weapons system they can overwhelm him/her in a reelection with money.
  • Monopoly s – The biggest winners are the biggest companies. In every industry the most powerful company rules. It will be far easier forcing smaller competitors out of business once the giant corporations own local state and national politicians. Example EXXON – The biggest corporate entity will have the most money and therefore own the most politicians. Each competitor will get shoved aside or gobbled up starting with small business and ending with their major competitors.
  • Freedom No other functioning democracy allows the legal corporate buying of politicians . People have the power in these democracies. The corporate board rooms in the USA will be the oligarchy where decisions are made on everything from taxation to your freedom if you dare to challenge their power.
  • Taxpayer – The taxpayer has been thrown under the bus.  As corporate taxes fall either deficits will grow or you will be forced to pay the difference.

There will be some corporations and individuals (perhaps Google & folks like Warren Buffett) that will work for the betterment of the world. But greed/profit is the bottom line for corporations. Your $25 contribution or work for a candidate can be overwhelmed by Exxon’s or Shadow Bank’s  $2.5 billion contribution. Our constitution centuries ago was  created for We the People – now its changed to We the Corporations. Remember yesterday 1/21/2010. If there is no change – Democracy as we know it has died.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.01% up
NASDQ -1.12% up
S&P500 -1.89% up
Russell2000- -1.76% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

US stocks got toasted in HUGE volume.

Obama threw down the gauntlet at the shadow banks and stated he never wanted to see an institution that was too big to fail. "Never again will the American taxpayer be held hostage against these banks that are too big to fail."

However, the Shadow Banks now have the power (see above) & enormous amounts of money (lots of it your tax dollars) to defeat any meaningful reforms.

  • McClellan Index at -49.56 = Almost significantly oversold.  Only 10 points till  @-60 or oversold.

Sorry, just too upset about Supreme Court decision to even think about stocks.  However, obviously, investing in the biggest corporations, in the long term will make the most money.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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September 9, 2009

Market Updates – The End of Democracy?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The End of Democracy?

E.J. Dionne who writes primarily for the Washington Post had an editorial entitled It Could Be the End of Democracy as We Know It . LINK

What Dionne is referring to is an upcoming Supreme court decision that threatens to overrule a 1990 decision that upheld the long-standing ban on corporate money in campaigns.

Yes, McCain/Feingold legislation made it much harder for corporate giving and it still got through. However this legislation would open the floodgates.

HAVE WE so quickly forgotten the #1 lesson of the 2008 economic meltdown-that Greenspan as he admitted was wrong and “free markets” could not regulate themselves ? This week US corporations may be given unfettered access to buy politicians. Indeed as Dionne explains “President Barack Obama’s health care speech on Wednesday will be only the second most consequential political moment of the week.”

Quantum Shift in Savings

Another unheralded event is not making headlines. That the quantum shift of Americans from net borrowers to savers . Since Reagan took office and reversed the trend of diminishing national deficits (see last Thursday’s blog for data on deficits as part of GDP) The shop till you drop,go into debt up to your eyeballs era is coming to a close for the American consumer.  MSNBC reports that in July “Americans cut debt by $21.6 billion in July; $4 billion was expected” LINK

Some conclusions from this data:

  • How is there a quick economic recovery if American’s save more?
  • Saving more is obviously a good thing and increasing debt bad.
  • Real Organic growth is going to come from outside the USA (countries like China who were huge net savers and are saving a little less now)

Financial flows like this reinforce the concept that in the USA any recovery in GDP is going to be slow to materialize and real organic growth is going to be led by emerging markets whose middle classes are growing and don’t have huge deficits.  Even countries like Germany who have been net savers and whose businesses do not worry about paying health care costs are at a distinct advantage over the USA.

This is why Investors411 focuses on foreign ETFs that have organic growth and growing economies/middle classes – Invest in where the money is and will be flowing

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.59% up
NASDQ +0.94% up
S&P500 +0.88% up
Russell2000 +1.03% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

Major US indexes rose again.  This time volume rose,but was still below average.  Stocks are rising because the dollar is falling. It took a massive hit yesterday.

This week , FEARLESS FORECAST - is for an up week .

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The BDI has leveled off and started to rise over the last two weeks, +33 yesterday.

Each day this looks more like a base has been formed above a key support level – Bullish short term outlook for BDI and we have certainly recovered from the devastating lows of Dec./Jan.

The BDI is 41% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost +170% from early April to Jun e

——-

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

The dollar dropped of the table and through its major support level. It fell a whopping-1.16% % yesterday. Dollar closed at $77.26. Its  major support level is @$77.5 . Short term Bullish for stocks

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

Bottom Line – Both the BDI & the Dollar are forecasting at least a short term rally. Key to look for is can the dollar get back over its $77.5 support level.


Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

Sold 1/3 (or 6% total stock) position in FXI (China) last week A Mistake . With both the dollar falling and the BDI finding technical support and rising China again looks like the place to be invested in. Investors411 has only 12% of its portfolio invested in China. Looking to now add to this position.

Individual stocks-Another reason I hate individual stocks is because an event like a big conference can impact the stock. Apple has one of those today.  Will Steve Jobs show up? How will he look, what new product will they feature? – I have no idea on how to answer these questions that will move the stock. All I know is technically it outperformed the major US markets and like NVS is at a new high.

Taking advantage of falling dollar. There is a downside to a falling dollar, especially a currency that falls like a stone. However for most American companies that rely on exports for real organic (not cost cutting) growth benefit from this.  It also inflates the prices of commodities. Its no accident that as the dollar reaches a yearly low commodities like gold, oil, and copper reach highs. So any country or commodity play looks good right now.

Right now Investors411 is caught with its pants down because we are not more fully invested in countries & sectors where the money is flowwing.

Have to update positions section (away all weekend) Investors411 problem is that we are under invested in equities. The predicted 5 to 10% correction this month almost happened last week (-4+%), but close doesn’t count.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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May 8, 2009

Market Updates – Swine Flu kisses

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

WHAT’S UP? – Let’s take a day off from bashing, thrashing and smashing politics & economics. Looking at the lighter side – Swine Flu kisses; Obama and bankers; Obama changes middle name; Late night  comedians on politics; and how I created the Iraq war.

Is Swine Flu transmitted by Oinkers? 

No – So kids, find a pig & lick, lick, lick 

Barack Obama in a private meeting with bankers – “my administration is the only thing standing between you and pitch forks.” (Fortune magazine pg.64)

The Co – Star of the New Star Trek Movie

A&E

Salon composite/AP Photo

Barak “Spock” Obama

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From Late Night TV – About the replacement of a new Supreme Court Justice. (from About.com:Political Humor)

“A vacancy on the Supreme Court. This is something we haven’t seen in a while. Let’s just hope the president is better at picking a justice than the justices were at picking a president.” –Jay Leno

“They say President Obama will most likely pick a woman. And I think that’s probably true, because today, Clarence Thomas was seen renting porn.” –Bill Maher

“Barack Obama may choose Hillary Clinton as Souter’s replacement. So the big question now is, well, can she make the transition from pantsuits to robes.” –David Letterman

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Just ask my kids and Grandchildren – Everything I say is absolutely true.

The one time I ran into Cheney and Bush was in the 2000 campaign.  They were planning Iraq war. Bush turned to me and said,  ”We plan to kill millions of Muslim’s and one sculptor.” Being a sculptor I asked why kill a sculptor? Cheney turned to Bush and said,  ”See I told you liberals wouldn’t care about the Muslims.”

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STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -1.20% up
NASDQ -2.44% up
S&P500 -1.32% up
Russell2000 -2.41% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Major markets retreated in huge volume. What Wall Street calls a “distribution” day. A significant loss in increased above average volume. = Bear’s dance.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) fell -2.88% in increased, above average volume.

Monthly Jobs Report – (breaking news 8;30 EST) -539,000 jobs is bad but below expectations. Rate now up to -8.9%. from 8.5%. Last month revised down a bit. (699,000 to 663,000)

Best spin – third month in a row job loss declined and smallest loss since Oct.. Better than expected news good for stocks

Stress Test

The big news is the announcement of the ”Stress Test” on 19 biggest Shadow Banks. You can read about some analysis here (NYT) & here (Tim Geithner) here.(Simon Johnson)  Obviously, I’d pick Simon Johnson’s to read.

What’s good is bad - The stress test basically mandates that banks have a certain amount of capital on hand. This is good because it keeps them from being over leveraged. However, as banks raise the capital to meet this quasi mandate they will have a difficult time loaning out $ because loans are liabilities.

10 of the 19 big Shadow banks were found to be a total of $75 billion short. Why it’s easy to be skeptical of this number is the introduction of “mark to market” accounting and the fact that when relatively smaller Lehman Brothers went belly up they had @ $400 billion in over leveraged debt.

Bottom Line – Wall Street investors have accepted these numbers and bullish for stocks.

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Repeat - All  Investor 411 positions (except GLD) are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by a wide margin. See Positions.

RepeatThe $64 Trillion dollar question - We have rapidly created an incredibly massive subsidy system for America’s Shadow Institutions – How do we disconnect from these wealthy welfare recipients?


Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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