Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 5, 2012

Hate Radio

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Who Owns

Rush Limbaugh?

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Mitt Romney???

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Carbonite CEO –

“Limbaugh overstepped any bounds bounds of decency”

,

After 3 days of smearing a pro contraception Georgetown law student Sandra Fluke with diatribes and labels like “slut” and “prostitute…”

seven different sponsors suspended or eliminated backing for Limbaugh’s show.

Limbaugh, of course isn’t the only one in hate radio that slanders and and plays on the emotions. Remember the “hate radio” controversy surrounding the shooting of congresswomen Gabby Giffords and the slaughter of 6 innocent people?

We desperately need to do something about the vitriolic rhetoric that is being used to tear this nation apart.

Some major media outlets like NBC & CBS have suspended radio hosts for their “overstepping any bounds of decency” from racial slurs, to libelous  accusations, to attacks against women no matter what side of the political spectrum they were on.

But their is one company Clear Channel Communications that broadcasts Rush Limbaugh, the highest rated radio show, and so many more like him – Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage  etc. – that refuses to act.

Back in 2006

Bain Capital and a partner

Bought out Clear Channel

Romney At Bain

  • Bain, of course, is the firm Mitt Romney used to run.
  • Bain gives Romney millions each year as part of his golden parachute
  • Bain executives are million dollar donors to his campaign.
  • Since 2006 Bain, Romney’s Firm, has been a silent owner of the largest “hate radio” network in America.

Romney called what Limbaugh did “inappropriate.” Inappropriate is a term you use when you eat steak with your salad folk.

Obviously, Romney does not own Limbaugh’s show, but their are some clear connections

Imagine someone slandering your partner, daughter, grand daughter, on the biggest radio show in the nation with the words like “slut” and “prostitute” until sponsors dropped the show. Limbaugh issued a weak apology in writing on his blog.

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Do you think Romney’s Bain capital

should suspend Limbaugh?

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Investors411 readers now have the hidden story

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Romney’s former company, Bain with a partner

is running the largest hate radio network

in America.

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PS – Kudos to Popeye & CDB and many who took action against against Limbaugh. (see comments section of blog)

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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Insight into How Investors411 evaluates stocks, markets and trends can be found in the STRATEGY Section of the blog.


  • Major Piece of BAD News this AM – China cuts GDP forecast from 8.0 to 7.5  Story
  • Monthly employment report will be a key metric this week.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -37.65. 50 Day Moving Average at @+21 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Close to oversold territory = NEUTRAL
  • If you look just at the chat pattern of the MO it is clearly bearish

  • Italian 10 year bond yield almost flat today at 4.91% (8:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone.

Bottom LineThe news of the cut in China’s GDP is trouble, but not entirely unexpected. The dollar’s reversal (moving higher) could be the start of a negative trend for stocks. So now besides higher oil prices due to Iran war mongering, two other dark clouds have emerged.

We are starting to get some across markets and fundamental negative signals, yet the Central Banks pouring liquidity into the USA and Europe has trumped these moves in the past.

So we note the clouds, but still go with the trend.

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Paul’s Corner


The Dow is 13,000, the Nasdaq is almost 3,000 the S&P 500 1400, and all is well with the market? Looks that way but if you look at the numbers, the indexes are being carried by the big cap stocks like AAPL and the small cap growth stocks are headed to the woodshed.

One of the ways I look at the health of the market is to see how many stocks in the S&P 1500 are above and below the middle of their Bollinger Band. When the market is healthy and in a good bull run we usually see 80%  of the 1500 above the middle of the Bollinger Band or “>0.5” and obviously 20% below “<0.5”.

During January when the market was moving we had many days with the ratio 80:20.  During February this ratio started to turn over and this past week we finished with a 37:64 ratio, which means 64% of the stocks in the S&P 1500 are below the middle of the Bollinger Band. This suggests a deteriorating market.

So if the numbers are so bad, why are the averages so good? Well if we look at the Nasdaq 100, the big cap fellers like AAPL, the current %B ratio is currently 60:40. This shows 60% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 above the middle of the BB and they are holding the indexes up.

Another place to peek, let’s look at the Russell 2000, the small cap stocks. As of Fridays close the RUT had a ratio of 22:78, that’s right 78% or 1560 of the stocks in the index of 2000 were below 0.5 or middle of their Bollinger Band.

Well it looks like the “money” is flowing into the big caps and out of the small caps. If all of the money is flowing into the big caps, when will the “supply” of money run out and the big boys head for the hills? That’s the big question and I sure don’t know, perhaps Barr knows? JS do you know? [great question - editor]

My good friend Ian Woodward put up a great blog Saturday evening  where he looks at the market and suggests we are walking on pins and needles.

Take a look: LINK

Ian goes into great detail as to what he sees in the market and has a good chart showing how the %B of the S&P 1500 has decayed. Lot’s of mumbo jumbo, but it’s all good stuff as they say.

Jeffrey Scott an HGSI user is hosting an online webinar this Wednesday evening. It looks like we will be discussing short candidates. Join in, it’s a free webinar and Jeff always does a great job.

Registration Web Link: LINK

Oh, one last item, Your Stock List as of Friday had a ratio of 63:38, that’s pretty good!

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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June 17, 2011

#37

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

A TV AD

Why start with A TV ad? Because its the most memorable minute long TV add I’ve ever seen. Its based on a movie The ExorcistMany Thanks to subscriber ER for sending it in.

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Screen Shot 2010-04-05 At 11.32.49 Am

#37

This is no surpriseAnother major scientific study of our health care system in the USA ranks us as #37 in the world WE, again no surprise, pay 50% more for this health care than the European Democracies. If you can get into one of the top hospitals you’re in luck, otherwise hope you are in another major democracy that has decent heath care if you get sick.

If independent scientist study something, mainstream media almost always ignores it.


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England Get’s it Right

Congratulations to England –  “Finance minister George Osborne announced a major overhaul of Britain’s banks, approving a separation of their retail and investment businesses to help avoid another global financial crisis.”

Major investment banks backed up by CNBC, Fox News and others are screaming at Obama’s weak financial reforms here. Political candidates are falling all over themselves courting Wall Street banks. Chances of reform like this happening here are about the same as either the Red Sox or the Yankees NOT making the playoffs.

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Greece

Almost the entire investment world’s eyes are focused on when will Greece default. Some key points.

  • The major point here is this will be no ordinary defaultThere are trillions in derivatives on Greek loans that will have to be paid when Greece default. Like the Lehman collapse this multiplies the seriousness of the situation.
  • All major banks are trying to find others that will buy their toxic Greek derivatives. Perhaps a major reason this process is going so slow.
  • Ireland is in the same boat and perhaps Portugal (China seems to be backing them)
  • The chances of Greece NOT defaulting about as high as the Philadelphia Philies NOT getting into baseball playoffs.
  • Another reason to be bearish on US markets - The dominoes – Greece defaults = Euro falls = dollar rises = US stocks go down. Also – Who knows how many derivatives any bank has on Greek debt?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.54% Down
NASDQ -0.29% Up
S&P 500 +0.18% Down
Russell 2000 +0.27% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Basically flat market yesterday. Volume changes were minor. Worth noting NASDQ under preforming.  Almost every market guru  is shouting BEAR’S RULE The only possible silver lining to this dark cloud is when you get so many people on the same side of the trade, there is a potential for a quick, sharp reversal

  • It looked like US markets were going to meltdown yesterday, but about 3:00PM EST rumors of Central Banks in Europe threatening intervention and everything changed. Central Banks are manipulating currencies and therefore stocks. They can manipulate for a period of time, but eventually market forces (a default in Greece or elsewhere) will trump.
  • The key situation that almost all investment eyes are focused on is Greece and when it will default. Latest (5:27AM EST) on this
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose slightly to -51.27 ( below -30 = somewhat oversold, below -60 = oversold, below -90 OMG oversold) The lower the MO goes the more the chances for some sort of rebound. Obviously, we’re now close to -60 so pressure for rebound/rally is building
  • $USD The Dollar rocked higher two days ago +1.83% and was flat yesterday +0.01% (consider that Investors uses +/- 0.50 as a significant one day move) It broke out through resistance and formed a higher high on its chart two days ago. Yesterday  confirmed the massive move higher. . Big time bullish for dollar and for stocks which usually move inversely to the dollar = Bearish
  • CHART OF THE DAYshow inverse relationship between the dollar (UUP ETF) and the S&P 500

This is a 6 month chart. Dollar up usually means stocks down. Dollar down usually means means stocks up. Hopefully you can see why Investors411 uses it as a forecasting tool. The big volume shown under the end of April/beginning of May low makes that figure a strong support level.

Chart

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  • Reading The Tea LeavesShort term (repeat) - Staying with the same dead cat bounce pattern of lower highs and lows till it breaks down. Pattern in place since early May The dead cat rally bounced Tuesday and fell Wednesday and held/confirmed those losses Thursday = Bearish. Investors411 predicted an MO of -90 to -120 this summer. It may come sooner than expected.

  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term (repeat) -  “See May 20th blog for forecast for this summer.

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought about a month ago.

TZAETF that is 3 times short small cap stocks Bought 1/2 TZA position at 39.75 last Thursday.

Gold/Silver - RepeatNo trends except gold is out performing stocks and silver. A major editorial on this in near future.

Repeat -  More likely to add TZA than subtract. Would buy more TZA in small rally. I’ve been preoccupied with grandkids so have NOT had a chance to trade. I would have bought TZA yesterday and will try today to add to TZA on dip.

RepeatInvestors411 recommends using TZA or SDS as a hedge/insurance against losses in high dividend stock NLY and especially if you own other dividend stocks (see past month+ blogs on dividend stocks.)  This way you protect prices of dividend stocks against falling prices and still collect the dividend.

Repeat Strategy remains

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) .
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

DisclosureI own NLY, & TZA as well as a group of dividend stocks- I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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June 1, 2011

Science/Greatness

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Oxford University

Science and Greatness

Quite simply the rise of western civilization came about through the rise of the  scientific method.

As Western civilization grew that knowledge and scientific methodology became institutionalized in the great European Universities and over the last century in the USA in such institutions as Harvard, Princeton, Stanford etc. As we nurtured both the institutions and the methodology the US leadership role expanded. Now  its in decline. Why?

  • Greed based Science - Major corporations to inure higher profits formed think tanks, lavished money on scientists, bought media networks an dominate those networks revenue streams. Example – At an earl age kids have repeated hypnotically that Captain Sugar must be consumed to become happy like all your favorite heroes.
  • Return to Religiosity - The scientific method  no longer takes a role but blind faith in a religious leader or concept becomes all consuming. Perhaps the best example is the science of evolution being challenged by creationism.
  • Direct assault on Science – Those who win Nobel Prizes and have attended institutions like Harvard or the Sorbonne are look down at an ridiculed as not like us or their ideas are dismissed because the come from “liberal” or “foreign” universities

It is no accident that these are the  three major groups in the Republican party.

  • The business wing that screams for no regulations of what they call the “free market” ( a term that should make you cringe every time you hear it). Everything should be run in the shadows without regulators to maximize the profits. Like 2008 – capitalize the gains for them  and socializes the risk for you.
  • The charismatic religious leader who through the use of fear predicts the end of the world or hell if his/her interpretation of events thousands of years ago is not followed.
  • The Mamma Grizzly’s, Tough Talking Trumps, and all the heroes of the Tea Partiers. They constantly remind us – Those who back science are elites and not like us common folks. Above all never compromise with your fellow Americans because they and the rest of the world are not like us.

Obviously many/most Democrats are held in rapture (a pun) of the Corporate oligarchy and cater to some of the other elements that denounce a scientific method. But its the far right that has changed what made us great. As we sink in the USA, not to worry, China, Japan, and so many other countries are valuing education and even our universities. They are the leaders of tomorrow.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.03% Up
NASDQ +1.37% Up
S&P 500 +1.06% Up
Russell 2000 +1.44% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Absolutely horrible economic news (Consumer Confidence numbers, Case Shiller Housing Price Data & Chicago PMI) So, of course we had our typical big low volume rally. Bad news means the greater likelihood for more Fed liquidity after QE #2 closes on 6/30.  (NASDQ did have BIG above average volume – but I hesitate to put any significance behind it because it could mean that it had more Black Box/High Frequency Traders playing with some volatility))
  • The possibility of a second of a second Greek bailout helped to rally the Euro/sink the dollar = good for stocks.
  • UUP (the dollar ETF) still the index to watch.
  • How bad is our economy? – According to the huge bond market its in the toilet. On the right hand side of the blog is a link to “Treasury Bonds”  All of these bonds are packing low low low yields. =  These investors don’t see a hint of inflation or growth.
  • Reading The Tea LeavesFrom Last week – “Holding with short term prediction of oversold bounce and bears asserting themselves as we get closer to and beyond June 30th.” Last weeks prediction seems spot on.
  • More Tea Leaves-  Last month was the first negative one for the major US indexes. Also, the money supply into mutual funds sunk for the first time this year. There should be continued anxiety over the economy until the Fed demonstrates (as I believe it will) that it once again has our back with some form of managed/manipulated liquidity combined with extended low interest rates.
  • Investors411 has a NEUTRAL Longer Term Outlook through this period.
  • Short term - MO shows any rally will probably be at least a short term peak for most US stocks. Perhaps we’re already at a high for the week+

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell yesterday -0.37%. A five day decline has placed the dollar below its 50 day moving average and that, of course, is bearish for the dollar. But for stocks  = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose dramatically to  +38.36 Check out this link to the MO chart and you will see  since last September each time the MO has been unable to rise over +50. Very reasonable to assume rally will soon become overbought. We’re almost there.= Bearish/neutral

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Paul’s Corner

[Editor's Note - This was written Monday night]

The Second Day of Summer 2011

Friday finished nicely higher for many stocks, has the bull market resumed? In electronic trading Monday oil closed down, under the assumption of a slowing USD economy and debt in Europe. Many of the oil related stocks have done well these past few weeks, we’ll see what happens at 9:30 this morning.

So what moved Friday? Looking at my favorite search for stocks in high demand we see the following top groups. Stocks with decent charts in bold.

Health-Drugs (8.00%, 8 securities)

  • Amarin Corporation PLC (AMRN)
  • Forest Laboratories  Inc. (FRX)
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
  • Novartis AG (NVS)
  • Questcor Pharmaceuticals  In (QCOR)
  • Teva Pharmaceutical Industri (TEVA)
  • Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inte (VRX)
  • Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. (WPI)

Chem-Fertilizer (6.00%, 6 securities)

  • Agrium Inc (AGU)
  • CF Industries Holdings  Inc. (CF)
  • LSB Industries  Inc. (LXU)
  • Mosaic Co (MOS)
  • Potash Corporation of Saskat (POT)
  • Sociedad Quimica Y Minera De (SQM)

Enrg-O&G Explor&Prod (6.00%, 6 securities)

  • Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
  • Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP)
  • Continental Resources  Inc. (CLR)
  • Occidental Petroleum Corpora (OXY)
  • Petrohawk Energy Corporation (HK)
  • Whiting Petroleum Corporatio (WLL)

Semiconductor-Mfg (4.00%, 4 securities)

  • Atmel Corporation (ATML)
  • Avago Technologies Limited (AVGO)
  • Broadcom Corporation (BRCM)
  • Cypress Semiconductor Corpor (CY)

For those of you who enjoy searching for your own stocks, here is a list of HGSI selected stocks with a “lower left to upper right” trending chart pattern. They all are growth stocks with good fundamentals.

AIMC,CEVA,CF,CMG,CDXS,CPX,CY,EMC,FFIV,GLNG,HWD,INFA,KMT,KEG,PTEN,SRI,TSLA,VMW

Stocks listed are for education and NOT a stock recommendation.  Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I’m sure not going to.

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Positions

SLV/AGQ (very roughly 2x silver) SLV is up over 5% since it was placed in hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. Often I take 1/2 the profits between 5 & 10% and let the rest ride. I’ve put a stop in at what the SLV was bought for.  Have reasonable confidence the speculative move behind silver is going to continue along with GLD (ETF for gold)

REMX – (Rare Earth metals) This hopefully long term holding had a almost a 10% move last week in light volume. Don’t know what this exactly means, but the light volume rally in both REMX & SLV is very similar to what has become norm for major indexes in the Fed managed/manipulated US stock market.

Anyone who used Investors411 #1 “buy the dip” of a bullish trending sector strategy on REMX has enjoyed the ride. (wish I had bought more) REMX had fallen below its 50 day moving average (see chart)

YOUR Stock List - Many of the stocks in YSL #4 have had a stellar run over the last 5/6 trading days. You can view the list by clicking on POSITIONS at the top of the blog and scrolling down.

Disclosure – I own both SLV & REMX

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 26, 2011

YOUR Comments

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Mark Haines

Mark Haines

YOUR Comments

Once again YOUR Comments is perhaps the most interesting/informative part of the Investors blog. Everything from investment concepts to political editorials/trends is covered there.

Of special note is a tribute to a tribute to legendary financial reporter Mark Haines who died yesterday started by JS

Link Here (scroll down to read comments)

Today’s from comments has another editorial from Yankee Bob.

Never in my wildest dreams could I envision a Party that is as anti-American as the GOP is They have served themselves up for sacrifice IF AND ONLY IF THE DEMS CAN ACT AT LEAST A LITTLE LIKE THE PARTY OF FDR ….

1. Raising taxes. They won’t raise taxes on the rich or corporations but they WILL raise taxes on services they hate like Abortions Why can’t we have a minimim corporate tax that they can’t squirm out of or why can’t you tax corporate profits earned in the US. You want to declare yourself as owned offshore,..fine. But why can’t your US revenue be taxed here except  that the GOP will be against it.

2.  They are against gov regulation. Disaster in the Gulf. Disaster in Massey Mines. Disaster on Wall St. That’s what less regulation gets you.Their willfull desire for less regulation brings death from food pathogens

3. They are actually clamoring for lifting rerictions on child labor. It’s astonishing. What would that be for except to lower wages.

4. they are against ending the Wars.The Wars that waste trillions of dollars with absolutely NOTHING to show for it. Iraq is still a mess,and Afghanistan is still little changed. If those trillions had been spent on Domestic Infrastructure, then we would  have low  unemployment and a booming economy and good roads,bridges, dams,schools,parks mass transit . The money was spent on GOP wars. We have nothing to show for it but a bloated deficit and a bad economy.

It doesn’t have to be that way but,the GOP demands it. The same money spent on domestic infrastructure,education,transportation  alternative energy projects, and healthcare would have transformed the us into a vibrant dynamo. Couple that with increased tax on the wealthy and making corporations actually pay their share, reducing the defense budget would balance the budget.

Do you realize that the Defense spending has doubled since the fall of the Soviet Union? What a waste! Do you feel safer. Any nut with a pack of matches can burn most of the West but we spend billions on anti-terrorism. On What. Air cargo is still not inspected. Incoming cargo in our ports is scarcely looked at. If the terrorists are so plentiful and represent such a grave threat,…then they certainly haven’t done much.  My dog shows more ambition and determination then they have.

Yankee Bob


Systemic Risk That

Threatens Global Economy

Japan- The amount of radiation spewing from the broken nuclear reactors will soon top Chernobyl. Yesterday had the highest readings yet recorded from reactor #1

Europe’s weak economiesThe financial stability of these countries keeps growing - Story LINK

The problem here is the trend. News keeps getting worse and the solutions used to fix the wounds don’t always work.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up aInvestopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.31% Down
NASDQ +0.55% Up
S&P 500 +0.32% Up
Russell 2000 +1.30% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Yesterday a rumor of Fed POMO #3 spread around 3 PM EST and stocks shot higher. Then the rally collapsed when it became just a rumor. This illustrated again how closely tied stock market bulls are tied to Fed liquidity.
  • Historically, trading decreases before a holiday weekend. So next Tuesday becomes the pivotal day.
  • UUP (the dollar ETF) still the index to watch. In the globalized world, when the goes dollar down stocks movie higher. Why? – It means our goods are cheaper abroad and theirs more expensive here. The dollar’s fall/weakness has been a major factor in stocks moving higher. All this is obviously linked to the Fed’s liquidity injections creating more $ and therefore weakening our currency. [Investors411 will has and will keep repeating the above mantra, because its so important to US equities and greatly impacts and improving US economy]
  • From Yesterday – Reading Tea Leaves -  Getting a little more bearish each day. However still believe and oversold bounce is likely, especially if/as the MO falls below -60 and we reach the 1295 support level.  Right now it looks like any bounce will just be another lower high. Sure looks like the call for bounce is happening.
  • Reading The Tea LeavesHolding with short term prediction of oversold bounce (see MO & US Dollar forecasts below) and bears asserting themselves as we get closer to and beyond June 30th.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocksDollar was flat yesterday -0.01%.  Since late April we have been in a bullish trend and established two higher highs and now a higher low. The dollar is the key index to watch and has a strong inverse correlation with socks. Trend for stocks = Bearish/Neutral (More Bearish than neutral)
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO was basically flat. Closing price  -28.43 Yesterday Investors411 mentioned that stocks in April bounced off a low of just above -50. The same bounce seems to have started now.  Short term trend = Bullish/Neutral

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Paul’s Corner

As expected we had a bounce Wednesday. Silver up another 3.2%, US Oil up 1.7% and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index up 1.3%  The S&P 500 up 0.3%. The small caps, aka “risk trade” lead they way. The oil stocks are moving up once again. Most indexes where up all afternoon and volume a bit higher than normal which is good. Is this the end of the correction or just a bounce?

The following group indexes all were up today with a decent move up through their Bollinger bands.

  • Trvl&Leisr-Gaming Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Products Index (INDEX)
  • Office Supplies&Equip Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Educ/Enter Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Instruments Index (INDEX)
  • Retail-Jewelry Index (INDEX)
  • Chem-Speciality Index (INDEX)
  • BusSvc-Cml Printing Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Financial Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Dent/Med Sup&Svc Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Bio/Genetic Index (INDEX)
  • Constr-Mobile/RV Index (INDEX)
  • Retail-Mail Order Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Networks Index (INDEX)
  • Container Prod Index (INDEX)
  • Hsld-Furn/Office Index (INDEX)
  • Enrg-O&G Equip Index (INDEX)
  • Chem-Fertilizer Index (INDEX)

Here is how Your Stock List looked at the close yesterday.

  • SPRD jumped 8.6% closed on the 50 DMA
  • LYB up 4.63% with the oils, closed above the 50, buyable
  • BEXP up 4.44% with the oils, below the 50 above the 17 buyable
  • CPHD up 3.75% closed above the 17 in buying range
  • KSU up 3.3% mostly white candles the past 8 days, all green indicators
  • POT up 2.68% Below the 50 chart does NOT say buy at the moment
  • RVBD up 2.57% above the 17
  • PCLN up 1.61% chart still breaking down, most indicators red
  • ABC up 1.49% sitting just below the 17, basing
  • ALTR up 1.46% below the 17, above the 50 basing
  • RNOW up 1.32% below the 17  and the 50
  • ADTN up 1.27% appears to have settled down into a basing period, at the 50
  • SKWS up 0.32%, not buyable, on the 200
  • SAP up 0.35% broken down below the 50
  • JNPR up 0.14% Woof!
  • BIDU up 0.28% the mighty BIDU appears to be breaking down, NOT buyable
  • IMAX down 0.04% sell off with a hammer candle stick, usually a bounce after a hammer.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Chart review is for education and NOT a stock recommendation.  Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I’m sure not going to.

____________

Positions

SLV and AGQ had another excellent day. Often, technically,  when stocks/ETF’s gap higher for the third time in a row it means exhaustion or they have temporarily run out of buyers. So if silver again gaps higher at open you could see a reversal. Very tempted to take 1/2  the profits into rally and let the rest ride.

Disclosure – I have a long term position in GLD for a senior center account I manage  and member of my family. I also own some SLV from a covered call position bought over two months ago. I own every position in the hypothetical Investors portfolio which now consists of SLV & REMX

CautionAGQ (2X leveraged silver ETF) does not exactly tracks silver. There are opening and closing distortions. Contact me if you want to know more. Same for ZSL(double short silver) DGP is double long gold – for those that like great risk

Last warning on YSL.

____________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 24, 2011

Reaganomics and Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Reagonomics/Democracy

Paul Craig Roberts is one of the founders of Reaganomics and on Max Keiser’s show (video) had the following to say about the global financial crisis.

The Money Quotes -

“The west prides itself that it is the standard for the world, that it is a democracy. But nowhere do you see democratic outcomes: not in Greece, not in Ireland, not in the UK, not here, the outcomes are always to punish the innocent and reward the guilty…

There is no democracy, there are oligarchies, some of these smaller European countries are not even run by their own governments, they are run by Wall Street

Revolution is the only answer…

We are confronted with a curious situation. Throughout the west we think we have democracy, we hold ourselves up high, we demonize China, we talk about the mafia state of Russia, we talk about the Arabs and so on, but where is the democracy here?”

Just how far to the radical right this nation has turned when the founder of Reaganomics tells us China has more democracy than the USA and calls for revolution.

Your Comments

  • Too Big To Fail lived up to its promise on HBO last night with  A little too much spinning of bankers and Paulson who caused the crisis as heroes. But the postscript was most alarming. Now interconnected shadow banks are even  bigger – only 10 banks have 77% of the capital in the USA. Of course there are no serious pieces of legislation to prevent what happened from happening again – the last minute intervention to prevent the meltdown of the world’s financial system
  • Yankee Bob has another editorial (Link and scroll down) The money quote – “What Bush and his gangsters did is too important to ignore. And to ignore it is to allow the precedent to stand for future use.”
  • Jim J has a link to a 60 Minutes Interview of Tom Drake (use above link to read other comments on this) Popeye money quoteOne big reason 911 happened and Bush never got bin Laden is because of the corruption and mismanagement of the NSA. They had a $3 million dollar program that the whistleblowers [Drake} wanted, but decided to go with a $1.2 billion program sub contracted to private industry that didn't work and had to be cancelled in 2006.
_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.05% Up
NASDQ -1.58% Flat
S&P 500 -1.19% Down
Russell 2000 -1.81% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Markets sank as the dollar rose.  We are breaking a pattern. Usually there are heavy volume declines and this was light volume. Don't know what it means, but reason to raise an eyebrow of worry. Weak volume declines are rare.
  • Fed POMO ($7 billion) arrived yesterday,but had little positive impact. All this quantitative easing ends June 30th.
  • Real negative behind market toasting yesterday was emerging markets. (EEM is the ETF - LINK to chart) Emerging markets are sitting right above major support at their 200 day moving average. Japan & Europe can have strikes against them, but if the engine of global growth emerging markets meltdown, that's STRIKE THREE
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - We have a month long series of lower lows and highs on the major indexes. Fundamental problems abound. However we have a moderately oversold market (See MO below) and the Fed still supplying liquidity. = We are probably in for a rally that reaches another lower high for US indexes.
  • Bottom Line - It will get harder and harder to make bullish calls as June 30th approaches and injections of Fed liquidity stop.

______________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose SIGNIFICANTLY  AGAIN on Monday +0.68%. The Dollar bulls  are back, and momentum could carry the dollar higher and stocks lower = Bearish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -49.17 This is almost exactly April’s low although March’s low reached -90 US stocks moderately oversold = Bullish/Neutral (trying to show a lot more bullish and just a tad neutral.

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Paul’s Corner

Paul’s Corner

Buy and Hold, Dividends, Better Stocks?

As we all know these past few months have been tough to make money trading stocks, I don’t care who you are, it’s been tough. With the stomach wrenching moves of the market of late folks have been asking for “longer term better stocks” and “dividend stocks” thinking that is what is needed so your lunch doesn’t turn into a bad meal at Taco Bell.

Last fall when Your Stock List 3 was introduced, the stocks sat still for a few weeks and then at the start of September the market took off on a wonderful bull run and YSL 3 enjoyed the ride with a very good gain. As they say “a good time was had by all“.

Several of the stocks didn’t make the ride so a few were dropped and a few new member requested stocks were added and the new list was introduced about the same time the market peaked and immediately took a 7%  correction.

Since then due to market rotation, the run and decline of the oils, the collapse of silver etc, the market and YSL 4 has essentially been flat. So is YSL dead? Is the market dead? Of course not, most of the YSL 4 charts actually looked quite good until yesterday’s sell off and the market does what it always does, it baffles one and all and will continue to do so for years to come.

So what has changed in “Your Fathers Stock Market” so we can no longer buy and hold? Be an investor rather than a trader? Well as much as I like to joke about Jim Cramer and his lousy recommendations (Say silver a few weeks back) he had a very good video last week about what  the market is now and what has changed since your dad selected his latest pick with a pencil circling a stock symbol in his favorite news paper.

LINK

So do we complain the good old days of buy and hold or over, or do we get with the program and realize paying attention, has replace complacency?

YSL 4 chart reviews will be made as necessary and added to the comments section as the week goes on so check over there from time to time.


______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 19, 2011

“Donald Ducks” (2)

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Happy Talk

The happy talk by governments and  media outlets around the world have masked the severity of the 2008 economic meltdown. Today, that same happy talk hit reality in Japan.

TEPCO and the Japanese government has continued to underestimate the problems in Japan.

  • The lead story in yesterday’s NYT examined “Vents that American officials said would prevent devastating explosions at nuclear plants in the United States were put to the test in Japan and failed.” (Thanks to frequent blogger Popeye for heads up on this.)
  • Today we learn that Japan’s GDP for the last quarter was almost twice as bad as was predicted. Last quarter’s GDP was -3.7% making Japan officially in a double dip recession.(Two negative quarters of GDP)

The sky is not falling. However, its time for some  realism when comes to economics and nuclear power.

  • The USA is the ONLY country that is NOT stopping to evaluate  its nuclear program in light of the Japanese disaster. Shouldn’t we pause to evaluate nuclear power?
  • Japan was the #2 economic power in the world till this year and its GDP had turned negative before the nuke disaster. Our economy and the worlds is in a fragile recovery. Shouldn’t the immediate focus of our politicians be insuring that we recover?

Without recovery there will be no funds to impact problems of the future. Japan seems to be taking the right role and focusing on recovery. Our politicians in the USA should do the same.

The Donald Ducks”

Headline from Politico

Three of the leading Republican candidates (Gallop Poll) effectively ended their quest for the presidency this week.

Mike HuckabeeAnnounced he would not run – Not to worry he will keep his FOX News show. Directly after his announcement in what only can be considered as bizarre Fox news ran a long infomercial as Donald Trump monologued his assessment of Hukabee, Obama and politics.

Newt Gingrich- Announced that Ryan’s plan to privatize and eliminate Medicare was “too radical.” This brought down the wrath of Republicans and then led Newt to say opps it was the media’s fault. Ryan’s plan will cost more and cover less (Goggle the words – CBO, Ryan & medicare) for American according to the non partisan Congressional Budget Office.

The Donnald - Announced he would no run – Not to worry he will keep his TV show. Trumps tough talk (fear mongering, finger pointing, & bigotry) and constant references to his TV show had catapulted him to the #2 position behind Huckabee (Gallop Poll) in the race for president. Wake up and smell the coffee, this run was all about Trump’s ego and his show. Everyone from the media on down who took his candidacy seriously was played for a sucker. (see Popeye’s remarks in comments section of blog)

The new Gallop poll has two new front runners for the presidency.

Mitt RomneyA candidate in 2008 whose cardboard presentation and flip flops on positions made John McCain look like John Wayne on Steroids. If Newt stays, undoubtedly, folks will evaluate which of the two has changed more positions. Romney wins the cardboard contest hands down.

Sarah PalinMama Grizzly can always say grrrr.

Maybe a better candidate will emerge from the pack. Stay tuned.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.65% Down
NASDQ +1.14% Down
S&P 500 +0.68% Down
Russell 2000 +1.60% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Stocks returned to the most familiar pattern since Fed managed/manipulated liquidity was reintroduced last November – An ultra light volume rally
  • UUP is the tracking ETF for the dollar is still the most relevant forecasting tool for US equities. Dollar. up = stocks down. Dollar down = stocks up
  • The dollar has flattened over last three days and a moderately oversold rallied.
  • Dell had a solid earnings report and investors  ignored the earlier poor reports from Cisco and HP. Commodities also rebounded, but the technicals (Dollar and MO above and charts/explanation below) were the driving Factors.
  • Our Fed managed/manipulated growing money supply had no place to park its money – Treasury bonds are falling, 0% interest rates in stocks, and a whole bunch of added dollars have recently come out of commodities & stocks. Therefore, Path of least resistance was for oversold stocks to move higher.
  • Short term momentum with bulls

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was flat +0.03% yesterday.  After a big run  higher for 8 trading days the dollar has flattened or retreated for the last 3 days. Three flat days is neutral. but momentum is still with dollar bulls. If the dollar continues to move sideways the outlook will change to Neutral. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .MO fell to -40 two days ago and rose to -9.04 yesterday. Accurate prediction from Tuesday MO isOn its way to oversold (@-60) Another bad day or two and we should be ready for at least an oversold bounce. We got that bounce yesterday and, depending on the dollar  could hold onto those gains today. However MO is now near Zero and therefore = Neutral

________________

Paul’s Corner

What an interesting week so far, at the start of the day I don’t know whether I should open a new bottle of Tums or put on the party hat.  Wednesday was a good day and most of Your Stock List looks ok with many stocks in a good buy the dip position.

So how do we “buy the dip” without “losing the house’?

Buying when a stock drops and touches the 17 or 50 DMA or if below when it crosses up through the average is usually a good method. In many instances a stock isn’t at a moving average or is even slightly below the average so we need to place a buy order above the previous days high to get a safe trade.

LYB took a serious hit this week along with the sell off of the commodities and now is in a buy the dip position. I have prepared a PDF  file  explaining  how to safely trade LYB in a  “buy the dip” position .

LINK

Take a look at the stocks in Your Stock List [click on word POSITIONS at top of blog and scroll down for list] and you’ll see most are in the “Buy The Dip” position.  SPRD and JNPR would not have been bought yesterday may 18  using this method since they didn’t raise above their close on May 17.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 12, 2011

The Vampire Squid

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The Vampire Squid

The People vs Goldman Sach’s

Matt Taibbi back with another editorial in the Rolling Stone. Matt’s the guy who immortalize GS as a Vampire Squid sucking on the face of humanity. He just keeps getting better and better. You can be damn sure that none of the cheerleading financial channels will dare to have him on.

Here’s Some of the money quotes

  • They weren’t murderers or anything; they had merely stolen more money than most people can rationally conceive of, from their own customers, in a few blinks of an eye
  • [Goldman Sachs] – “stands as the most important symbol of Wall Street’s aristocratic impunity and prosecutorial immunity produced since the crash of 2008…

  • used its canny perception of an upcoming disaster (one which it helped create, incidentally) as an opportunity to enrich itself, not only at the expense of clients but ultimately, through the bailouts and the collateral damage of the wrecked economy, at the expense of society. The bank seemed to count on the unwillingness or inability of federal regulators to stop them…

  • stands now on the precipice of officially getting away with one of the biggest financial crimes in history….

  • This isn’t just a matter of a few seedy guys stealing a few bucks. This is America: Corporate stealing is practically the national pastime, and Goldman Sachs is far from the only company to get away with doing it….

  • if Goldman skates without so much as a trial — it will confirm once and for all the embarrassing truth: that the law in America is subjective, and crime is defined not by what you did, but by who you are.”

“Stealing by corporate America is practically a national pastime.” The ruling wealthy plutocracy that benefits from GS rules the USA. Almost untouchable. Yet their financed media finds ways of pitting the middle class who they use and abuse against each other and the poor.

Vast amounts of wealth have been transfered to the wealthy elite over decades while they focus/fear monger you on racial prejudice, patriotism, religious bias, jealousy, greed, endless wars, cutting everything except the aristocracy.

TREND – As other countries develop their middle class, the consumers of the shrinking middle class in the USA will become even less important.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.02% up
NASDQ -0.93% up
S&P 500 -1.11% up
Russell 2000 -1.78% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • The weekly jobless numbers come out today and will act as a confirmation of how the economy is doing.
  • A bad jobless number is not necessarily bad for stocks, because it means it means the potential for more quantitative easing.
  • The dollar rising means many of those who have for months been dollar bears and long commodities are getting out of their positions, This hurts stocks and you saw the damage on Silver (down 8.34%) & oil (down 5.44%) yesterday.
  • BRAVO – The US government finally won a sizable court VICTORY – Hedge Fund bigwig Raj Rajaratham was convicted on all 14 counts of insider trading
  • Translation – You decide - Hedge Funds and others will think twice because this guy should get serious jail time or this is just the tip of the iceberg. Everyones doing it and the underfunded SEC can’t begin to catch all the crooks.
  • How the Wall Street day sets up from Seeking Alpha (Not good)

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a whopping +0.96%yesterday. Third major move higher in 5 day broke through the 50 day moving average. It’s the major reason stocks fell yesterday. Long term trend is bearish, but the short term trend is clearly bullish. For stocks = Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on fell dramatically to +1.98. Back squarely in the middle. = Neutral

________________

Paul’s Corner

We were all set up for our 4th day of the rally, futures looked good and then after the opening bell, the heat mat of the S&P 500 turned almost solid red. “Humph looks like a trying day coming“. Reports of a growth in inventory of crude and gasoline started a slide in commodities. The EURO fell with concerns over Europe’s debt crisis, the dollar rose and you guessed it the market took a hit.

YSL 4 had mixed trading and nothing gross happened to the group. SPRD, CPHD and SAP all had a good day.  SPRD  needs to settle down and base a bit before a buy would be safe. RNOW dropped below the 50 but it did that on low volume.  Volume on many of the YSL 4 stocks was normal or even low.

*****

As I often state, I use HGSI software as my primary stock analysis program. It has great interactive charts, the best screening in the business, the ability to make your own groups and indexes along with excellent support.

Next week May 18th Jeffrey Scott a HGSI user is going to present a HGSI Webinar and will show how he uses HGSI in his successful trading. I invite any of you who are interested in a quality analysis program  and building your trading skills to watch the webinar.

The Power Of HGSI Webinar May 18th from 8:00pm to 9:30pm EDT Registration is required and the webinar is free.

See LINK

Please note, I am a HGSI user, I pay a monthly fee for the program and I receive no compensation for recommending the product.

*****

These past few months have not been easy to trade with a full stomach. Folks are asking for longer term trades,  all of the stocks on YSL have the quality for long term trades. UFS Domtar, a paper company was added to Your Stock List on August 23, 2010. Priced about 57.15 it closed yesterday at 104.26, with an 87% gain in 9 months. It also has a small dividend.  Common stocks can be nice long term investments. It looks like UFS should have not been removed from YSL.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

*****

Editor’s note – Click on POSITIONS at top  of blog and scroll down for YSL 4 & 4.5 Stocks mentioned above or LINK here

________________

Dividend Stocks

Caution - The Critic (in the comments section of the blog) reminds that the two high dividend stocks NLY and ANGC are too far above their 50 day moving averages to buy now and longer term investors should wait to buy the dip.

________________

.

Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – From Yesterday – MO has been an amazing accurate forecasting tool for the past year.  It saying we are getting near a technical top – Yesterday saw a major market reversal led by commodities (silver and oil)

Investors411 mantra has been to wait for the MO to get down toward -60 to buy.

The commodities trade (commodities rally of many months) is unwinding as the dollar goes higher.  Speculators, hedge funds, huge institutions etc. who have built up major positions are unwinding those positions. It took many months to build these positions in commodities and the dollar. It will probably take more than a week to unwind these positions.

UUP – The tracking ETF for the dollar still the index to watch.

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

I have a position = Either I own it personally or a member of my family does.  I also manage an account for a non profit organization.

The Investors411 PortfolioThe stocks in YSL #4/4.5, REMX, plus all trades mentioned  in this section. (example the SLV and ZLS trades mentioned in April and May) AGNC & NLY will be added on a dip

  • REMX – Still trading above 50 day moving average which would be a buying point if your interested in owning rare earth mining companies.
  • ZSL (double short silver) – A potential trade today. Silver is just a % point of two from its last week low. Silver bears are going to try break the bulls today. If they do you might catch a significant downside move.  All of this depends on the dollar. Dollar/Euro trade is at a major support level. Bad news in Europe could set off a chain of events that drive Silver and oil lower.  Not a solid trade with and established trend, but one with potential because momentum with bears. Will mention in comments section if I am about to make trade.

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch foPaul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 5, 2011

The Silver Debacle

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

The Silver Debacle

Why this rocks your world even if you don’t own silver/gold/commodities

The Masters of the Universe have created another fine mess that can trace its origins back to the lack of confidence in the American financial system brought on by the 2008 crisis. The root cause goes deep, but that’s another editorial.

The latest announcement after the bell sounded yesterday was that the CME group was going to raise margins for the fourth and fifth time on silver today and again on May 9th. The total amount margins raises = a huge 17% LINK

Silver prices have  plummeted about 20% in the last four days LINK to ETF that tracks silver

Analysis

The world’s entire economiy needs fair credit and banking to survive. When that system miscalculates risk others (the public, investors, & holders of goods) end up paying the price and confidence is shattered. The Silver Debacle is another blow to our wobbly financial system.

Jesse’s Cafe Americana blog has an accurate representation of the short squeeze going on in silver from the silver owner’s perspective. Unfortunately the post is on May 2nd and therefore old news. However the basic analysis is spot on. Some in the money quotes on why silver is falling and magrins were raised.

“The Comex inventory is down to a new low of 33 million ounces of deliverable silver, at least according to their published records [this]…open up a yawning chasm between the paper markets and the physical markets that will be harder and harder to ignore…

Tens of thousands of buyers, both big and small, taking on the banking giants, draining them of silver, bouncing back again and again, and finally leaving them exposed, high and dry, and nakedly short, for all to see. The many, seeking to string the bankers on a rope of silver, and bring them down.”

The raising of margins by CME & others was the retaliation, not selling exhaustion – The reason silver prices are falling.

We have a war on in both the dollar (see below) and silver/commodities. Both sides have a good, bad and ugly. In the silver pits the bankers are now winning.  The end results could shatter or seriously impact far more than commodities trading and stock rallies.  Stay tuned.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.66% down
NASDQ -0.47% flat
S&P 500 -0.69% down
Russell 2000 -1.29% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Down, then fell slightly yesterday  -0.15. Clear bearish trend has flatlined for a week.  For analysis see The War” (below)
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell  to -18.37 Below zero which is bullish, but not yet overbought = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

The War

What to watch today Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

There’s a massive war on out there between bears and bulls over the dollar. The dollar sits as a major multi year support level and if it breaks the dollar will reach new lows relative to other worldwide currencies.  Click on the UUP symbol above and you will find massive trading volume as the dollar index has basically flatlined over the last week. This HUGE volume can be looked at as all the dead bulls & bears in the war.

This is the bulls last stand (historic lows in danger of falling) and they are putting up quite a fight.

How this war resolves itself will dramatically everything from US stocks to worldwide economics.

Reading Tea Leaves – Short term victory for dollar bulls (dollar goes up) and long term victory of dollar bears.

___________________

Paul’s Corner

The blood bath continued Wednesday May 04 for most of the commodities, silver, oil etc. along with a broad sell off in the general market.  Is this the end of the good life as we know it or is there hope for the next time you hit reload on your portfolio?

One of the ways to evaluate the health of the market is to look at the charts of the majors, the Nasdaq Composite, the NYSE Composite and the S&P 500. At first glance things don’t look too good but closer examination we find all 3 of bounced off of their 17 day moving averages yesterday.  The following chart shows the numbers.

LINK

So the line in the sand for the market is the 17 day moving averages for these indexes. If we break below the 17 the next stop/support is the 50 DMA. If we break the 50 we might be looking at 2008 all over again. Until we see the market is safely holding at or above the 17 we sit on our shoe box of cash!

Ok, back to business, it’s always good to see what did well on a down day. About noon the Semi ETF SMH turned up and quite a few of the semis I follow had a decent day.

So are the semis really moving? Off to HGSI we go to check out the  Industry Group List using the Warehouse  we find the semi group closed at # 6  out of the 154 groups.

LINK

The semis gave notice a week or so ago that they were getting ready to move so it does appear the rotation we talked about last week is in full gear.

One of my favorite scans each evening is where I sort for the top 100 high demand stocks of the day and then create a pie chart of the group to see if there is a group showing strength. Today we find the Semiconductor-Mfg group top and the Semiconductor-Equip group third.

LINK

Here are the semi stocks found:

  • Semiconductor-Mfg (9.00%, 9 securities)
  • Analog Devices  Inc. (ADI)
  • Entropic Communications  Inc (ENTR)
  • Intel Corporation (INTC)
  • Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)
  • Microchip Technology  Inc. (MCHP)
  • National Semiconductor (NSM) (Buy Out)
  • SMART Modular Technologies (SMOD) (Buy Out)
  • Spreadtrum Communications  I (SPRD)
  • Xilinx  Inc. (XLNX)

Semiconductor-Equip (7.00%, 7 securities)

  • AXT  Inc. (AXTI)
  • JinkoSolar Holding Co.  Ltd. (JKS)
  • KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
  • Kulicke & Soffa Industries (KLIC)
  • Novellus Systems  Inc. (NVLS)
  • Ultratech  Inc. (UTEK)
  • Varian Semiconductor Equipme (VSEA)

I see a few of the shoe/retail  stocks started running today:

  • Retail-Apparel/Shoe (3.00%, 3 securities)
  • Gap  Inc. (GPS)
  • Ross Stores  Inc. (ROST)
  • TJX Companies (TJX)

Apparel-Footwear (2.00%, 2 securities)

  • Crocs  Inc. (CROX)
  • Nike  Inc. (NKE)

Once the market settles down and gives us a good indication of a turn up, many of the stocks listed would probably make good candidates for a trade, add all them to your watch list. There are many quality semi stocks that didn’t make this list today so do some shoe work and see what other semis look tempting. YSL 4.5 member SPRD (a Chinese Semi) bounced off the 50 today so it too may be getting ready to party once again. Notice I suggested add to your “watch list” and not to your “buy list”!

FWIW I am 99% in cash and at times like this I can sleep. I had stops under all of my stocks before I left the house Tuesday and I was stopped out of everything reasonably well. So do we all use stops?

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Positions

See POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX, ZSL (major position double short silver) RJA (smaller) DGP (smaller) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD.

  • ZSL rallied a huge +11.07% yesterday.  Plan to sell some into rally today.
  • Other commodities are falling in major part due to the silver debacle. Until Silver prices normalize nothing is safe.
  • If you are trading the ZSL you have to be sitting by your computer.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 29, 2011

“Fight of the Century”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

FOTC-thumb

Fight of the Century in Economics

Keynes vs Hayek

Solutions to our current economic crisis set to a music video. These two long dead nobel prize winning economists are the leaders of two major economic theories/solutions.

How this “Fight of the Century” plays out is going to dramatically impact YOUR life.

One significant point is the whole problem reached its apex because financial markets in the USA were unregulated.

However, both sides make excellent points in offering solutions. Some look at either side with Osama Been Forgotten religiosity.  Others with pure greed. Keep an open mind and enjoy.

After viewing – If you want more see site of producers Econostories.tv

Football Players vs Teachers

Collective Bargaining  Question –

Why is it that many Republicans want to obliterate the collective bargaining rights of Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, and Unions, yet they say absolutely nothing about the NFL players who are collectively bargain for their rights?

{Thanks to Harry G, a frequent reader/contributor for this concept)


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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.57% down
NASDQ +0.09% down
S&P 500 +0.36% down
Russell 2000 +0.38% -

_____________

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Broken record – Another low volume melt up induced by the Fed’s injections of liquidity into stocks.
  • While individual earnings reports do impact each stock the High Frequency Traders and their super computers sill dominate the market by making up 70+% of all trades.
  • That USA GDP slowdown prediction that Bernanke announced negatively impacted world wide stock markets overnight.
  • Simple equation is falling dollar good for US stocks/exporters and bad for foreign stocks/exporters.
  • “Officials are unfazed over dollar slide” WSJ
  • The 2008 financial meltdown created a worldwide problem, especially for debtor nations. Spain, because of its size, is perhaps the greatest problem. Unemployment 21.3% and rising inflation at 3.5%.

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Down a significant -0.54 yesterday. Another a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to+ 40.01.  Getting up there but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today – Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

I know the Fed said it wasn’t worried about the dollar. (See comments yesterday on Bernanke’s press conference) But, the downside momentum has picked up over the last couple days and reached significant levels yesterday. Remember we are the world’s fiat currency and our currency is getting devalued.

  • The goodhelps US stocks, exporters, commodities and especially silver/gold.
  • The bad - Hurts foreign countries & raises commodity prices.
  • The ugly - Possible trade war – second great depression.

We have not reached crisis levels, but the direction is bad. Many see a huge storm coming and as a hedge are buying silver/gold

SLV is a juggernaut – It completely obliterated a climax sell off, moved 6% higher two days ago and marginally higher yesterday.

COMEX Silver is the official price of silver. Almost the same as SLV.  $50 is the key breakout level. If that level comes down and shorts are forced to cover, we could see another melt up.

Fear of the future is the fundamental driving this trade. You see this in US consumer confidence numbers and a recent gallop poll that show most Americans think we are in a depression/recession. Link below

55% of Americans see USA in Recession/Depression

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Look for Paul R’s enlightened views on stocks ing the comment section of blog

___________________

Positions

See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

  • Would buy more silver/gold on dip. -
  • The stock/sectors to be in – is those companies that export or make their money abroad. This is because the dollar is getting devalued.

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (smaller), DGP, UWM, RJA (smaller) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 26, 2011

When did Democracy die?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

DSC00109

Photo from Common Dreams

Chris Hedges is a graduate of Harvard Divinity School and a 2 decade long correspondent for the NYT – also CSM, DMN, & NPR. The Acadamy Award Winning Film – The Hurt Locker opened with a quote from a Hedges’ book.

One can defend may things about capitalism. However, Hedges writes a potent editorial that starts -

When did our democracy die?”

You may think this introduction is over the top, because the fact that I’m bringing you his words shows that the flame of democracy still burns. However,  Hedges does make many substantive points that are thought provoking.

  • When did the press, labor, universities, the Democratic part.. wither and atrophy”
  • Is “corporate power” … “inverted totalitarianism?”
  • Over decades – “a massive redistribution of wealth.”
  • “These [corporate] elites do not have a vision [of democracy] . They know only one word—more.”
  • The money quote -

although the heads of state or elected officials in Congress have become largely irrelevant. Lobbyists write the bills. Lobbyists get them passed. Lobbyists make sure you get the money to be elected. And lobbyists employ you when you get out of office. Those who hold actual power are the tiny elite who manage the corporations

What do YOU think?

Is Democracy Dead?

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.21% down
NASDQ +0.20% down
S&P 500 -0.16% down
Russell 2000 -0.17% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • All eyes on silver trade yesterday and today as climax buying (LINK to definition) reached a peak yesterday and a meltdown in foreign markets this AM.
  • Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
  • Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
  • US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
  • Good contrarian article on the possibility of a dollar rally. This would hurt stocks. Do see possibility of short term rally.
  • News of the week  - Bernanke speaking after the Fed Meeting Wednesday (Thanks to EW for mentioning this in comment section of blog)
  • What investors want to hear from Bernanke is more quantitative easing or QE 3.
  • The big longer term news is the ramification if the dollar continues to fall (See editorial above)

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   -0.17 yesterday. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to +10.47. = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold investors - Obviously  these commodities went elliptical or had a climax run. or a blowoff top yesterday. Translation – So many investors bought silver that it ran out of buyers. See SLV chart below and look at the big volume SLV on last Thursday & Friday and the record massive volume yesterday. Look at how far above its 50 day moving average (blue line on chart) SLV is.

Silver is the leader and gold went along for the ride. So it too is taking a hit in sympathy with silver.

Since its peak Sunday night SLV is down almost 10% as I write.

The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have not changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer. This is much harder to predict than a climax run. Because the fundamentals are so strong, I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

For Stock Investors – It’s the middle of earnings season and volume was abysmal. That means the Fed’s quantitative easing rules and the bulls have the momentum. One very significant point is the dollar did not rally as silver fell from yesterday’s high. Perhaps it will today and this will negatively impact stocks. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction.

Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place, but may be in correction for the next day or two. Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover.

For long term traders and everyone –  Arnold, the Terminator’s, famous words for gold/silver – “ I’ll be back” invested in silver/gold. We had a year’s run compressed into a month.

The learning part of all of this is sell into a climax run. Judging from the comments section lots of you did just that.

CONGRATULATIONS

NB – Check out chart of REMX. (Rare Earth Metals) It too had a climax run around New Years day. It reached a high of  @27, then and is now over 28. Consolidating gains after breaking out to a new high.

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.
  • SLVWent elliptical and in meltdown

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List.

Check out YOUR Stock List. - 6 or 7 of the 15 stocks are at highs

Disclosure – I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (small covered call position@ $40) RJA and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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