Quite simply the average Joe and Jane across the world are saying do I want to invest in this mess – represented by the dollar?

or

Something more tangible and less corrupt, like gold or silver – It shines.

I’m not saying we are going over the edge into the abyss and I strongly doubt that the dollar is going to go the way of Zimbabwe currency.  But there is dramatic change happening and its happening NOW

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In answer to one of your emails – No Investors411 has not become a gold & silver blog – I just want you to be aware of the trend and the geopolitical ramifications. This trend is VERY related to politics.

Also I hope you make some profit from investing.

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Special thanks to RF for sending in a list of Bernie Sander’s Top 10 corporate freeloaders who pay Little to NO taxes or link here

So, you going to ignore him?

Tax and Spending

Since Obama and the Republicans answer to the shadow bank, military/industrial and other business cartels in Washington it is important to get get a more unbiased point of view on the budget. Here’s one from today’s NYT. Tax and Spending Myth and Realities A must read since  the cartels dominate the flow of information.

Military/Industrial Cartel

Just how powerful and dominate is this cartel? Their budget has gone up a staggering 81% in the last ten years.  Nothing comes close to creating debt like the military budget yet they are so powerful a cartel that neither Obama, the Republicans or the media address the problem in a substantive way.

The $700 billion yearly usually used as an approximation of the  defense department’s budget is as phoney as a three dollar bill.

• Foreign wars (Iraq, Afghanistan) are treated as supplemental budget items and not included
• Veterans affairs are not counting in this budget, yet this is closing in on 8.5% of total budget.
• Homeland Security (almost 3%) is not part of this budget and so are other smaller related military expenditures.
• Since programs like Social Security are paid for with their own tax or fees and are currently in the black they are not part of the growing federal deficit.  If you eliminate these programs as debt contributors, the military budget alone wind up contributing over 50% of the growing national debt. Some put this figure much higher

So if we take the $1,000,000,000,000+ military budget and increase it by 81% growth over the next 10 years you come up with a $4 to $6 trillion dollar increase over the next ten years that almost every politician in the USA ignores.

You’ve seen Republican’s ignore the King Kong of deficit creators in the Room (far bigger than the 800 lbs. gorilla) and today you will see Obama in a speech to the nation virtually ignore it.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

• This is different. What has been a 3/4 day market correction has happened in light volume. Used to be we rallied in light volume and sold off in heavy volume.
• The dollar , oil and MO have fallen significantly and the likelihood of at least a technical rebound is growing (see below)
• Republicans seem to want to play politics with the Debt Ceiling. This could have a significant negative impact on stocks. More on this in later Investors411. Surprised the Wall Street part of the Republican party seems to be caving into the Tea Party wing on this.
• The key to US equities remains how accommodative the Fed can be. If it is limited by the debt ceiling or something else – watch out below. Everything will suffer.
• Fed announces POMO schedule though May 14. $80 billion, plus a second program of $17 billion. Can’t help but wonder if this second program will continue beyond the supposed end June 30th. Analysts very divided on a QE #3(more quantitative easing after June 30th)

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Dollar fell moderately yesterday -0.23%.  The trend since start of year is bearish with lower highs and lower lows on chart, We are at a lower low.  For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -51.72. Almost oversold. = Neutral/Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

From yesterday – “Looks like we are in for a correction. The dip last month took the MO down to -85 (see link to chart above)” and in past has gone as low as -135.MO at -51.72 now

Bottom Line  Till it Breaks Down – No Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market. So we are nearing a buy the dip territory.

The dollar at a low, oil prices plummeting last 2 days, and the MO nearing oversold levels shows we are ready for a rebound. If oil , the dollar & stocks continue to fall I will buy the dip. The further the better. This may only be a short term play (day, days, a week, or more).

Debt ceiling Republican soap opera politics in Washington could really hurt stocks. Question becomes will US default? Investors hate uncertainty and this is yet another bond holder to get out of treasuries.

This could kill the duration of the expected rally higher.

What to watch today – For shorter term traders Market movers.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down – Big hit in last two days – for stocks – Bullish
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks. Now bullish
• AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. AAPL rebounded yesterday. Perhaps the start of a rebound rally? Still, overall = Bearish
• Japan Rector Developments - This keeps getting worse.
• EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended and now correcting.

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Positions

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

” it’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary [or portfolio or election] depends on his not understanding it.“ Upton Sinclair

Some Examples

• Shadow Banks – The largest financial meltdown in history in 2008 and more fraud revealed over phony mortgage documents – No one goes to Jail. No massive amounts of money go to fund regulators, no return to the rules that prevented the crisis. All the politicians from Obama on down look the other way because it is the Wall Street money that gets them elected.

• The Poor  The Children and The Elderly – Wall Street shows record profits and bonuses. GE and other corporate giants pay NO taxes. Taxes for the wealthiest in the USA have been slashed for decades and off shore accounts abound. Our Central Bank is flooding its members shadow institutions with money.  Who will Republican politicians sacrifice for financial gain? Not those who fund their elections.

• Climate Change – “So the joke begins like this: An economist, a lawyer and a professor of marketing walk into a room. What’s the punch line? They were three of the five “expert witnesses” Republicans called for last week’s Congressional hearing on climate science.” One scientist was funded by the billionaire industrialist Koch Brothers  (they also fund the Tea Party) but he reversed his position (Paul Krugman) and is now an outcast.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

• Yawn - Another low volume rally. Fed liquidity has a muzzle muzzle on the mouths of bears.
• Jobs numbers have improved dramatically -700,000 when Obama took office to +216,000 last month
• Now Bulls have two strong fundamentals – Jobs are recovering and Fed’s liquidity injections.-
• A jobs good number Friday started a rally that got hurt by rising oil prices (Libya and upcoming NIgeria elections) and falling APPL stock. So gains were tempered.
• New quarter and attention will turn to earnings.
• Emerging Markets are red hot right now and exploding higher – Rally leaders.
• Monday’s are often the best day of week for stocks.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar saw a huge rally collapse and ended  a wee bit lower -0.03. Chart pattern showing volatility/erratic so short term hard to call, but longer term bearish  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +52.29. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. This is, therefore, the highest the MO has been since early September 2010 = Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

• Technically, the MO is screaming oversold.
• Fundamentally Japan keeps getting worse ( more tons of radioactive water dumped into ocean -11500 tons today). Libya is a stalemate and looking like a quagmire. Great if your a weapons manufacturer, but bad if your the taxpayer funding them or worse if you’re getting killed.
• Europe still titters on the brink with the many PIIGS near default.
• Housing figures are deteriorating as is consumer confidence
• Our financial system is still corrupt and protected by the vast majority of politicians form both parties. – No one goes to jail
• Our markets are still manipulated by our Central Bank – by keeping dollar low, zero % interest rates, buying federal debt, and adding liquidity.

All the above would absolutely toast any other stock market. However we bubblisciously move higher.

When will the bubble pop?

The dollar is the key metric to watch. What’s holding the dollar up is that the other major currencies are also so bad – Europe and Japan.

What to watch today - Market movers – UUP still has most influential, unless others make some huge move.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bearish
• Japan Rector Developments – This keeps getting worse.
• EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting over extended.

Bottom Line – Fighting the Fed is a loosing strategy. They Rule.

Stocks are significantly oversold, but there are many in the wings waiting to buy the oversold dip. Now is not the time to buy most stocks wait for the dip

June 30th is the day POMO stops and this could pop the bubble. But, until then dramatic rises in energy or a fall in the dollar are the critical warning signs. Remember, A slowly falling dollar is good in the short term for stocks. A huge fall show lack of confidence in the USA.

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Positions

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - I’ve jaw boned this for way too long and waited for the right dip, but missed it.  This is a credible long term asset to have. I’d buy any dip. I do own both in other accounts.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Obama on Libya

Here’s the NYT  editorial – basically an favorable review on an overdue speech to nation. Also the far right’s Bill Kristol  kudos from the Weekly Standard – “You’ve Come A Long Way Baby”

Both Popeye and Mama have made a understandable point in the comments section of Investors411 – This is tomahawks instead of teachers we are fostering and there is no clear and present danger to the USA. Many state the obvious – this multilateral action will be judged by wether Ka Daffy goes or stays. Good points -but

But consider a more pragmatic approach. You get there by putting one step after another and moving toward your goal. In the case of Lybia there are concrete steps that should be recognized.

• Nicholas Kristoff in NYT said words to the effect that  you can’t prvent every genocide, but preventing one is a good thing
• This was a multilateral approach (UN & Arab League backing) not a unilateral one like Iraq
• No boots on the ground invasion force, but the use of diplomacy and force.
• Genuine thanks not a phony pulling down of Saddam’s statue directed by a US army psychological operations unit.
• The “Arab Spring” of revolutions across the Mideast would have been endangered if action were not taken.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

The QE1 & QE2 chart relative to stock prices that was in yesterday’s Investors411  is now in the Strategy Section

• Another weak volume day. Slightly higher
• Some entity sold big time into close. Otherwise we would have had weak volume & slightly higher
• $99 billion in Treasuries are being sold this week. That’s a lot more than the Fed POMO alone can soak up. Fed usually buys a bit under $6 billion most days.
• Take Advantage of This Bull Market While It Lasts is a worthy editorial from Equity Network Corporation.  Specifically they talk about reacting NOW on the news before it gets rehashed over and over again by media. Precious metals as an inflation hedge is the top call for a bullish year.  I’m not so sure about post QE @ (June 30), but hope they are right.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.11% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three/four day bull run stalled yesterday.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +9.78 . Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Yesterday was no exception – the +30 resistance level was too strong for bulls to break. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Stock markets are dynamic and fluid. Forecasting tools change depending on what kind of market we have. Right now both Fed liquidity injections and High Frequency trading are impacting markets and many traditional tools (like volume) are not working as well as they used to

Bottom Line - Different times demand different forecasting tools.

Both the dollar and the MO have worked well for many many moons. See (click on links) charts above.

Hold Em & Fold Em

If you’ve  followed Investors411 you know we have a proven winner in both The Dollar and the MO as market forecasting tools

• The dollar going down far more often than not translates into stocks going up.
• The MO’s longer term +/- 60 & shorter term +/- 30 are both reasonably accurate points momentum swings the other way (oversold or overbought) The + side of the MO is overbought and the – side oversold.

Investors411 has repeatedly show why markets like seemingly bad news – it means more Fed quantitative easing. There are also key ETF’s to watch (see below) like USO (oil an inverse correlation) and tech leader AAPL that impact markets.

There hundreds, perhaps over a thousand different ways tell YOU – Hold Em or Fold Em. These seem to be working quite well now.

Short Bottom Line – We had our bull run off a -60 on the MO and paused as stocks got overbought. But obviously not all technicals (the MO being oversold/overbought) that moves markets. The headlines like earnings, Japan, Libya/oil, QE 2 are the drives and the technicals are the road signs of when to hold em and fold em.

So right now were in a holding pattern. The MO could fall to buyable levels and rise to fast and we’d have to sell. The momentum seems to be with the bulls.

What to watch today – Market movers

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

UWM - – Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

We are on the cusp of change from NEUTRAL. We could swing back if stocks dip

Japan – TEPCO in Japan has finally called for outside help. Even Greenpeace is on the ground saying their readings differ from TEPCO’s (science over politics) Common Dreams web site has a fascinating  real time tweeter updates TEPCO admits protracted and uncertain operation to contain crisis. Here the short version of the best video yet on the tsunami

Taxes –  GE made $14.2 billion in profits last year and over $5 billion in the USA. Guess how much they paid in taxes last year year Wait for it, Wait for it,  Wait for it – ZERO.  Now remember your taxes are due by April 15. Only in America

Financial Reform – Seems that virtually all Republicans and some Democrats are doing everything possible to make sure that those too big to fail shadow banks that destroy the meager measures the Dodd/Frank Bill put in place. The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday

Libya – This call may be premature, but it looks like after the allied/UN air strike many who supported Ka Daffy are changing sides. At least his army in the eastern 1/2 of the country has melted away. Al Jazeera reports no resistance to rebels in his home town. Huffington Post live blog

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Here’s the chart that demonstrates what Investors411 has been saying  since last year and why the Bulls Rule in our liquidity driven Fed manipulated stock market. (I realize most of you are sick of me saying the above again and again, but NOW is the opportunity to profit from this)

• This chart was done by Kevin McCElroy from Seeking Alpha.
• Want to know more? – Impact of POMO on Dollar by LFB from SA

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally on Friday.
• On the surface it looks like the rag tag exuberant bunch called rebels in Libya are winning, because oncee air strikes clobbered exposed military units resistance became almost non existent – For stock = bullish. For oil = Bearish For Ka Daffy = Bearish
• Black Swans (Big event bad news) everywhere. From John Nyaradi on this week’s outlook in stocks. Remember bad news is more often than not an elixir for stocks because it means a stronger possibility of more quantitative easing.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.74% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three day bull run For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +24.38 Getting oversold. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30 = Bearish /Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The Bulls have had a stellar 7 day run in weak volume. (weak volume rally= calling card of a liquidity driven manipulated market)  They are starting to come up against some technical resistance that may slow them down – A rising dollar and the MO nearing overbought levels. “Merger” Monday  has historically been the best day of the week. If Ka Daffy supporters don’t have the stomach for a fight you could see rally continue. The however  perversely good news (lower oil prices if Ka Daffy looses) may turn out negative because it would mean less of a chance of QE ##

Short term rising dollar and oversold levels should hold bulls back this week.

War room

Every major group of traders is sitting in their war rooms discussing the end of QE #2 (quantitative easing) and how it will impact markets before/on/after June 30th (ending date)

Will the Fed do a QE #3? Since we have over 3 months till this happens bulls should rule unless too many traders front run what they perceive is the end of quantitative easing. Frankly, there are whole mess of investors out there who believe there will be a QE #3.

So best read of tea leaves is still bullish till June 30th. More low volume rallies. (see chart above)

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

UWM – - Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. - approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversly to the dollar

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Your Stock List seems to be turning the corner and has 5 breakout stocks

3 of the 4 major indexes are above their 50 DMA’s and the NASDQ is sitting on its 50 DMA.

Focus today is on Quantitative Easing (sometimes referred to as QE 1, QE2, Fed POMO)

The following is a link to a three year chart of the benchmark S&P 500

Notice the strong correlation between quantitative easing and stocks moving higher.

• QE #1 starts in the spring of 2008 (along with FASB) and market move dramatically higher
• QE #1 ends at the end of the 1st quarter in 2009 – stocks move down.
• QE #2 announced in Nov. of 2010. Stocks move higher again (they start a month+ earlier in anticipation of more QE 2)

Since November 2010, the chart pattern has been bullish with low volume rallies. The Fed buys treasuries from (and gives them a 0% loan rate) shadow banks and they, wink wink, know what to do with the money – prop up stocks.

• Major Fundamental events (Japan & revolutions/oil prices) can only dent this steady march of low volume rallies higher.
• Every technical analyst realizes that low volume rallies for month after month are basically an impossibility.

So unless there is another unforeseen factor, stocks should again move higher till QE 2 runs out on June 30th. If stocks fall then QE #3 is possible. This is a bubble building manipulation that benefits the ruling wealthy class in the USA, so it should continue.

Bubbles pop and working class American’s will pay the cost or go under (inflation or monetary collapse). However, for now, stimulus (Obama tax compromise) FASB & 0% interest rates are still in place. So the future looks decent for stocks till the bubble bursts.

You might think the above is the “monster” Bernie Madoff, but please consider a far bigger monster – the 5 largest US shadow banks.

The Slow Motion Coup D’etat

There has been a slow motion Coup D’etat in the USA.

You could argue it began in the 80′s when we the US oligarchy’s wealth started to grow and working class Americans were pushed further into debt. However, now its become an outright white collar criminal enterprise that along with a compliant Federal bank and government is harvesting trillions of dollars and placing a crushing burden on working class Americans.

Even the loan financial figure, who had nothing to do with the 2008 financial meltdown, jailed Ponzi scheme crook Bernie Madoff warns in the New Yorker – “It’s unbelievable. Goldman … no one has any criminal convictions—the whole new regulatory reform is a joke. The whole government is a Ponzi scheme.”

Matt Taibbi calls Goldman Sachs - A great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.

Its unfair to single out Goldman from the other 4 major “to big to fail” shadow banks or the network of 21 primary dealers that our central bank (The Fed) and most federal politicians protect.

What’s a safe long term investment out there for working Americans?

• Your home? 2008 sure crushed that
• Your pension plan? See Yankee Bob’s comments on Wisconsin’s 100% self funded pension plan yesterday (scroll down)
• Your Social Security?
• The US dollar? – (see below)
• The manipulated stock and bond markets?

None of this is safe from partisan destruction or government backed shadow bank raids.

Many economists, including Robert Reich, track the redistribution of wealth in America. In 1980, the weathiets 1% held 9% of the wealth now its over 20%.

Now we have the 5 too big to fail shadow banks with an almost infinite liquidity from the Fed, and no oversight doing whatever they want. (Aside – Hush don’t tell anybody but guess where most of Ka Daffy’s $30 billion in frozen assets, along with countless drug cartel billions are?). Yes other sectors of the US economy are the same. But, its the financials that lead because they are leveraged.

God help our debt ridden butts when one of the crooked too big to fail banks goes belly up. So, the oligarchy will keep them on the unregulated dole till we run out of bonds, credibility or whatever you want to call it.

“Our government teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.” Judge Louis D. Brandeis

_____________

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

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_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building reasserting itself as the dominant trading pattern.
• Libya/oil disruption still has potential to disrupt trading pattern. Until the oil fields start burning its impact on stocks should diminish.
• Aside from KA DAFFY no oil dictators seem in danger today
• From Seeking Alpha – Like the title Was That It for The Correction? & author has a decent sector analysis chart at end.
• Fed and Buffett were jaw boning the markets yesterday.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell yesterday -0.50%. Short term support level around $77 was broken.  Let’s see if it holds or confirms the breakdown today. For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to to +16.97 Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Getting close to +30 resistance level. Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

There is a significant change going on in the way America is viewed.

Virtually every time there is a major worldwide crisis, investors flood into the safety of the dollar. This time the dollar has fallen and yesterday broke its short term support level.  Perhaps any analysis of this is thrown off by the Fed’s manipulation or liquidity dump. But a falling dollar in the short term is usually good for stocks. Longer term it shows a lack of confidence in the USA.

A little wiggle room in the MO till strong resistance at +30.

What to watch today

USO - oil prices

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. As long as it hangs in above that everything OK

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Positions

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Buy the dip. Why not its a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding.  Hopefully longer term holding. Stop still set about 2% below rising 50 day moving average. Will buy more on dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Many web sites that focus on precious metals are calling this a manipulated commodity. A buy the dip ETF

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set at @ 2 % below rising 50 DMA. Again would buy a dip

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Bush/Obama holding hands with world’s richest totalitarian

Totalitarianism

Egypt - Day 16

Latest from Egypt

• Mubarak’s Minister  says – Violence if protestors don’t back off. & NYT
• Striking workers join protestors
• The Information Wars is topic of Al Jazeera’s monthly show tomorrow in NYC at Columbia 2:45 EST.
• Remembering – web site devoted to Photos of young  killed by dictator

There are a whole string of mostly American back dictators backing the inhumane Mubarak. Remember Saudi Arabia where most of the 911 hijackers come from?

This oil rich totalitarian regime along with our American media and governments collaborate to keep what happens in their totalitarian regime from YOU. Not Investors411. Let’s present the reality of Mubarak’s biggest backer and Bush/Obama’s biggest hand holders -

How the Saudi’s treat

• Jews – They send out text books across the world depicting Jew’s as monkey’s and pigs.
• Journalists - For criticizing an electric company a journalist was given 50 lashes in front of the company and put in jail for 6 months.
• Women – For going unaccompanied with a man to a building a women was given 300 lashes and a one year jail term

The above facts are from Human Right’s Watch founder Robert Bernstein video [source - Bloomberg's Taking Stock show with Henry Pimm - Paul's favorite financial network]

We sell $60 billion worth of weapons to the Saudi’s from our military industrial complex yet almost No Americans have ever heard of Cyber Dissidents.org who fight for freedom and justice in a gulag of dictatorships.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Flat to moderate declines in weak volume.
• Short term over bought US indexes took an out of breath break yesterday.
• Mantra till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. .
• Mantra #2 – 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades ‘s chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
• Major fundamental causes for Wall Street concern at the moment – Inflation in emerging markets, European debt, will the Suez canal stay open.
• Another Bearish forecast – “Yield Curve” is steepest ever – difference between rates of 2 (so low) & 10 (rising, but down 2.23% yesterday)year treasury bonds.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell  yesterday  -0.46%. Looks like dollar bears may be back and for stocks that’s = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to to +10.38. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level.  Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantra - A manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed to pay off their over leveraged debt.

Photo - Helicopter Ben Bernanke - Dishing out a Tsunami of liquidity to US economy

Major emerging markets are in a meltdown. A correction of 5% to 10% has turned into a 10% to 20+% meltdown. Inflation is the enemy. China, Brazil and India all had about a 2% drop yesterday.

From yesterday - Gold, and commodities may work as a hedge on inflation, but when it comes to the USA,  going short equities provides much more protection.

Falling dollar – The other major factor keeping US stocks in rally mode is the falling dollar.

Bottom Line –

• Short term – too many up days in a row. Minor correction due
• Longer term – Fed liquidity tsunami is having a negative impact on the rest of the world, but keeping US afloat. Problem s what happens when the liquidity dries up? But when is uncertain (QE #2 goes to June) and if economic news is bad will there be a QE#3.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)  See $USD above for more. Dollar may be turning back down. From yesterday -When after a short rally a stock/sector index opens and closes at same price it often indicates a reversal. We’ve had a significant reversal down. Today will confirm/or not, that reversal

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high in moderately higher volume. Up 4 days in a row.

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Positions

UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dips. Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Have set stop/loss for last 1/2 at 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Another Day where I’m one with snowblower. Hard to find places to put snow. 8 inches last night and today worse heavy wet snow.

Trends/Economics/Politics

• See comments section from yesterday for some excellent commentary by bloggers on Egypt. Link here scroll down
• Consensus view that Al Jazeera has the best live commentary and is ahead of other sources. This revolution/demonstrations is happening throughout Egypt not just in Cairo
• Seems like Dictator has now organized some counter demonstrators. Outcome of this is still in doubt as a defiant Mubarak spoke last night and made some more cosmetic changes. Democracy advocates want him to step down now. Fights breaking out.
• This is going to get bloody Mubarak has launched a counter revolution. Mobs of Pro dictator thugs with knives rocks etc. are attacking Pro democracy forces that will provoke violence could will cause the army to clear the street.

Stocks

• Big rally in moderately higher volume. This volume is down form the same time last year. Both the DOW & the S&P 500 broke out to new highs and broke significant psychological resistance levels. (Dow 12,000 and S&P 1300)
• Fed POMO manipulations are pretty much universally recognized now as manipulating stocks higher.
• Snow has an impact on markets if it keeps major brokers and traders away today and this gives Fed even more influence.
• McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +25.94 Remember +60 is a rough guide for over bought. You can also analyze this chart like a stock. So we still have wiggle room for more of an upside move.
• The Dollar is dropping like an anchor down a significant -0.86%  The dollar market is far bigger than stocks and has a ways to go before reaching support (looks like about $$1.25 lower to support level)
• Wall Street news this AM from Rachel Granby
• Violence in Egypt could hurt stocks

We have room to run higher with the Fed POMO program as the usual catalyst.

The ETF bought early yesterday were UWM, REMX, CDB. Will take profits at over 5+% on 1/2 UWM. See comments section for more

Your Stock List has 26 new entries and many multiple votes. It will be at least a week before a new YOUR stock List is Published and

Barr

The FIX Is In

Or How the Bulls have Rigged the Stock Market

On the surface its simple and been covered in past Investors411. The Fed prints & dumps money into the economy. Yesterday’s dump was 8.309 billion More money  = more wealth in USA. This drives the dollar down relative to other currenies and US companies sell more goods abroad because they are cheaper.

But the devil is in the details – The FIX is being run by US shadow banks, our opaque central bank/The Fed & The Treasury. Here’s how

• You buy Treasury bonds from the US Treasury
• But our Fed buys bonds from from its 21 Primary Dealers

Aside – Primary Dealers is basically a synonym for giant opaque shadow banks. “Somethings Rotten in the State of Denmark” Let’s use Goldman Sachs as an example. The Fed buys these bonds from GS through its NY Fed office. William Dudley, runs the NY Fed and is also Vice Chair to Bernanke. Oh. by the way, Dudley was also chief economist for Goldman Sachs for over 20 years. Ya think, GS is getting a good deal or front running the bonds it sells to the Fed? Take a look at the recent rise in yield of the 10 year Treasury bond. (Link to chart on right side of blog)

Never forget there are puppet masters who pull the strings of the puppets we call democrat and republican politicians. But let’s get back to the bulls rigging the stock market.

• Remember we allow our shadow banks to be giant investment brokers
• The giant investment houses run Black Box/High Frequency Trading units.
• Follow the money. – Is the $$$ these primary dealers are making going to finance mortgages or is it going into the stock market?

Aside – Now if you are a greedy investor, like me, scroll down to “Reading The Tea Leaves” which maps the course of the money as it flows into stocks and how to make $$$ from it.

• So,  for investors. shadow banks, globalized US companies, most stocks the fix is in.
• Good economic news – No worries thing are getting better for the economy and stocks should go higher. But shadow banks could loose a major source of revenue.
• Bad Economic news - No worries Shadow banks, investors, globalized companies will all prosper.

You betcha, This short term fix is another bubble building. We are still the world’s economic Big Kahuna and we’re getting away with this market manipulation because we can and it works.  What were doing now should work for months. However once you turn on the steroids its hard to stop injecting. What’s really needed is fiscal reality – raising taxes/cutting social security/stop building an unsustainable military empire/cutting medicare.

Europe is taking a different road –  The Black Swan (great name) Nassim Taleb who predicted the 2008 meltdown and says that Europe is making more progress on debt than the US He’s right.  If your looking years into the future their austerity measures will work much better than what we are doing.

START Treaty (Haven’t forgot about it – Monday)

STOCKS

Investors411 tries to keep it basic.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

World Stocks -.

USA – Rally was confirmed yesterday and volume was relatively high,  and there’s a chance just a few people may be reentering stocks.

Job’s number for October = Rate Up to -9.8% Gain of +39,000 jobs Far Worse than expected.

Europe – Most major European markets did better than USA. The Black Swan (great name) Nassim Taleb predicted the 2008 meltdown and says that Europe is making more progress on debt than the US He’s right.

Emerging Markets – EEM (ETF for emerging markets) again outperformed US stocks. Up +1.96

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Chart Pattern for benchmark S&P 500 has formed a classic 8 month long cup and handle trading pattern. Stocks are accelerating to the breakout point now @ 0.50% higher (SPX at 1121 & breakout 1127) The acceleration into the breakout resistance point is OMG news for stock analysts.

When you break out to a new high and an 8 month major chart pattern is involved, it often is like adding  jet fuel to the breakout.

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Reading The Tea Leaves -

Bulls Rule – Today the employment numbers will probably show solid improvement. This will probably rally the dollar, and the dollar moving higher might hurt stocks. If it show an unexpected rise – the same thing will happen.

It’s the dollar/stock relationship that is key. One mantra of Investors411 has been a reminder that High Frequency Traders dominate/make 50% to 80% of all trades. They trade in both the larger currency markets and smaller stock markets.  Dollar up = Stocks down and visa versa. Here’s why the bulls are in control

• For 8 trading days the dollar went up (one was flat) Most of these days were significant moves higher.
• For those same 8 trading days stocks did NOT move down but sideways
• For two days the dollar have now fallen significantly and stocks have rallied significantly

Basically, the trend is stocks move sideways on bad dollar news and rally on good news.  There are some fundamentals behind this that have been mentioned in the past and will go over on weekend or Monday. But the important part is that bulls sure look like they are in charge.

Additional points – BDI seems to be showing early indications of a reversal in trend and that’s good news.  MO at +5 gives us lots of room to move higher. Rough interday gauge for MO is 100 Dow points are worth about 20 points. So Dow goes down 100 points MO would interday be at about -15. Reality the McClellan Oscillator has little to do with the Dow

Positions

• EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF)
• UWM – (2x small cap stocks ETF) As mentioned yesterday sold 1/2 of UWM at 39.11 for +9% gain
• UCO – (2X oil ETF) Bought at 11.37

Plan to  buy the dip today starting with UWM and on a huge dip TYH.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

I’d add to positions on YOUR Stock List too. Unfortunately many stocks are overbought (or close to it) right now. Paul R has a good grasp on individual stock positions.