The Truth & It Hurts

How the rest of World reports a story – WikiLeak’s on Iraq war -

Iraqi Father and Daughter

On Friday at 5:00EST the largest leak of classified military documents ever was realeased on the Iraq war by WikiLeaks. They covered the Iraq war from 2004 to 2009. Here’s WikiLeaks war logs referenced & outline (400,000 classified documents to browse)

This is the major international headline throughout most of the world. Our media (covers only 4% of the world’s 7 billion people) as you might guess is downplaying this document dump with – other data, stories, personal life of Wikileak founder etc..

So, since you get those sources, lets look at what the rest of the world sees and reads

• Al Jazeera –  This is their English/International version.
• Le Monde (in French)
• The Guardian (English)
• Der Spiegel (Germany)

These are 4 of the 5 (The last was the NYT) that were given the documents in advance. You can’t deny what Sec. of State Clinton said in condemnation - “in the most clear terms… the disclosure of any classified information that will put the lives of Americans and others at risk.”

Some rather obvious observations

• The extent of torture, war Crimes, murders, civilian deaths were far greater than originally reported in Iraq.
• Dehumanizing the other side is pretty standard in war, but 96% of the world that’s not American gets to see the Muslim parents and children suffer. Most American’s  don’t.
• The single largest cause of creating  Islamic terrorism since 2003 has been the “unjust” (word of UN secretary General) invasion of Iraq & war on terrorism

American (including me) will go back to our football games, digesting political fabrications, and our lives. But Remember YOU are paying for all this.

The father, brother, son, daughter, relative or friend of those who are murdered, tortured raped and assaulted can and do turn into tomorrow’s terrorist.

How would YOU react if it was your child???

Photos from IrregularTimes.com

Killing Ants With

Republican Leadership

Popeye in Comments section of blog states – John Boehner Republican and next [possible] speaker of the house called the pitifully weak shadow bank fat cat financial reform bill “KILLING AN ANT WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON.” What plant is he on?

If the Tea Party Patriots and Republicans win the next election John Boehner will be Speaker of the House – This guy thinks, that financial crisis/reform is just an “ant” John McCain made light of the financial crisis before the election and it handed Obama the election. Boehner had the benefit of hindsight.

There is still at least one Republican who has not drunk the Tea Party Kool Aid – Senator Lindsey Grahram -To Tea Partiers in a meeting: “‘What do you want to do? You take back your country — and do what with it?’…Everybody went from being kind of hostile to just dead silent.”…you [TPP's] have no vision…you will die out.”

Bottom Line – As much as you and I disagree with what Obama is doing, the Republican alternative is far worse

Cheney/Bush Won

For years Investors411 has demonstrated US media bias. Latest proof of how Cheney/Bush fear mongering patriotism to a gullible supposedly liberal media (New Your Times & LA Times)working . This Harvard study on terminology proves it – Is water boarding torture?

• NYT -If other countries waterboarded it was called torture 85.5% of the time.
• NYT – If US waterboarded after 2004 it was called torture 1.6% of the time
• NYT – Before 2004 water boarding was called torture 81.5% of the time.

YOU are manipulated daily not only by content, but choice of words and stories the media uses. Even in the NYT

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Mantra for week - “ Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the ”Black Boxes” of  huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.” They make up 80% of trading and right now the huge currency markets are dictating their moves.”

Clash of the Titans

Gravity/Fundamentals.

The Black Boxes got overwhelmed by gravity or market fundamentals. So has the month long inverse relationship between the dollar and US stocks. We’ve seen a lot of non black box investors panic and take their $ out of stocks this week. Bad fundamental economic news finally is trumping everything else (see yesterday’s Investors 411 for reasons)

The BDI going over a cliff (-44% see below) is further indications of economic meltdown.

Technicals – Two times in the last two days the Dow has dipped 100+ points (-152 yesterday) only to recover most of those losses. S&P down 8 of last 9 days is certainly another indication that stocks are oversold. Another is obviously the MO. It went below -60 interday (oversold territory) in the 100+ point declines – then recovered.

This is the kind of day investors hate, but short term traders love = VOLATILITY

The bulls titan has a meltdown in the dollar, an oversold market, and knowledge that large dips are getting bought.

The bears titan has a week of horrible fundamentals worldwide & the BDI. Also, Bond traders are running wild. (sorry for lack of explanation here – takes too long – but its bad for stocks)

Icing on the Cake – The Monthly Jobs Report.

The jobs report comes out this AM and anything unexpected could create wild fluctuations. Remember the jobs report is very significant to the long term economic well being of the USA, but it matters far less to the US stock market.

The JUNE Jobs Report Headlines - -9.5% Unemployed vs -9.7 in May = +0.2%, Private sector jobs up +83,000 vs +33,000 in May.

Basicaly in line or a slight positive surprise. This data does not say armegeddon, but you need +200,000 a month to ofset population growth and lower unemployment long term. Stock futures initially moved higher, but are now flat.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell a we bit to -52.19 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. –  & Investopedia on –  How the MO works. In May the MO reached two lows – one at -120 and the other close to -130. Therefore, potential for more downside risk. = Still NEUTRAL, but almost oversold
• US Dollar –  The dollar fell an unheard of -1.75% yesterday [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] This is the single largest move in the dollar in the last 6 months probably a lot longer. The support level was more than broken it was devastated Mantra - right now is very important Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. Yesterday stocks and dollar going down together. – A Total Disconnect - Stocks indexes should have soared – up 2 to 4% on this news.  = Bullish
• BDI - The  Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped = Bullish. Also good proxy of China) BDI is in free fall from a high of @4200 to  2351 yesterday.( This is a huge -44% drop in 6 weeks.  Often a leading indicator for stocks. Here’s a week+ old chart of BDI showing broken support levels. The BDI fell -2.29% Rate of decline increasing as it nears support level =Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekends

Have not yet had a chance to Update over last 2 weekend but there are NO positions held at this time.

Short term Traders - Would buy into any big move to downside, especially if dollar is falling. Use ETF’s that go long 2 & 3 times indexes.

Investors willing to take big risks – Remember The long term outlook is still Cautiously BEARISH.

A significant fall near the end of the session could be a chance for a small nibble. Technically what’s setting up is probably a bear market rally. Realize this may only be a short term trade that you sell 1/2 on only a 5% gains and you should set a stop/loss on trade.

Long Term Outlook =CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

WHAT’S UP? Thanks to all of you who wrote in comments and set the agenda for both SmackDown and Torture; The endemic of torture – accountability, your comments, definition, & its cost in American lives; Shadow Banks and the Stress test;  Flu Pandemic hits stocks; Major changes at GM;  Market – Technicals & Fundamentals.

TORTURE

-

Definition of Torture

• The Spanish Inquisition waterboarded and we called it TORTURE (Frank Rich - Link)
• The Japanese waterboarded (WW 2) We executed those responsible and called it TORTURE (see ewanapt’s comments)
• The vicious dictator Pol Pot(Cambodia) waterboarded and we called it TORTURE
• The scum in North Korea waterboarded and we called it TORTURE
• The Cheney Bush administration waterboarded and we call it ”ENHANCED INTERROGATION TECHNIQUES.’

Commission on Accountability

The endemic and acceptance of torture has dramatically altered the moral character of our nation.

Torture authorized  by the Cheney/Bush administration was not used in one singlular Jack Bauer (TV show 24) moment but instead spread throughout the world.  Authorized torture approved by the government elites – from the 84 ghost prisoners to Gitmo to Abu Ghraib to Afghanistan – flourished throughout the world. See, Andy Worthington’sTen Terrible Truths About Torture

One of the greatest outrages of our time has been the change in America’s character to accept torture. Character and moral values used to be what separated us from Chairman Mao and al Quaeda.

Please join me and others  calling for an independent non partisan commission to examine and publicly report on their findings. See-

Commission on Accountability.org 

Dick Cheney

The Overlooked Cost in American Lives

Our use of  Torture killed  a whole lot of Americans “The reason why foreign fighters joined al-Qa’ida in Iraq was overwhelmingly because of abuses at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib and not Islamic ideology,” says Major Matthew Alexander, who personally conducted 300 interrogations of prisoners in Iraq.”  

Torture and the “unjust” occupation/war in Iraq was the #1 recruiting tool for Islamic terrorists. who have and will kill thousands of Americans. See  ”Torture? It probably killed more Americans than 9/11″ -LINK

STOCKS

Technicals & Fundamentals

Mantra -Forget all about the major indexes - What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

We are in the second 1/2 of earnings season.

Possible Flu pandemic negatively impacting markets throughout world.

Major changes coming out of GM. They are dropping major lines of cars and more.(breaking)

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +2.24% Friday in increased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) 

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.94. We are moving close to strong resistance level at @ 11.3.  This is the resistance level all Wall Street is watching.

BDI -Baltic Dry (Sea) Index has rebounded. (see BDI chart on side of blog) Translation – world trade is doing better.

Reading the Tea leaves – Stocks are in a tug of war-but the trend looks up. Here’s a CNBC article that agrees with this outlook. Technically we are consolidating, but there has been more upside days in big volume than downside days in big volume. Fundamentally the big event is the May 4th “Stress Test” announcement. Here some more info on the Stress Test.

Fearless Forecast.-  It’s hard to see the FLX break out above the 11.3 resistance level before the “Stress Test” on the shadow banks becomes public. But, at the rate the current administration is caving into the big banks a breakout seems likely after 5/4

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

WHAT’S UP – This week a myriad of revelations on TORTURE have exploded. The eruption was centered on the release of a 2002 Bush administration “Torture” Memo.  We are wrestling with questions of greed, torture, an “unjust” war, and what used to be our moral leadership of the “free world.” What will the new tend(s) be?

Abu Ghraib prison photo

We Don’t Torture

*John Stewart, as usual,  uses humor on a humorless subject to cut to the heart Video Link

* The 2002 Bush administration torture memo authored by Jay Bybee can be found here (its long)

*  Attorney General  Eric Holder in his confirmation hearing defined “water boarding” as torture. His opinion is the one that counts. Don’t remember what he said about other techniques described in memo.

* Does torture work? 3 points of view from – Editorial in Politico

• Cheney – Yes Period.
• Obama –  May work sometimes, but shouldn’t be used.
• Hillary – No Period

* Ali Soufan the FBI supervisory agent, after 7 years, finally broke his silence over “the false claims magnifying the effectiveness of the so-called enhanced interrogation techniques”  See editorial in NYT

* A Torture Timeline – From Foreign Policy (“a web exclusive”) 

Photo – Iran torturing Gay’s –  Link - or worse Iraq - Link

Accountability

* Whose going to be held accountable?  Just the lowly flunkies at Abu Ghraib? Already the NYT has called for the impeachment of Jay Bybee.  In the comments section of the blog Popeye seems to want the heads of Cheney, Bush and Rumsfeld on a pole. 

* So what do we do? Is Popeye right?  Obama is tip toeing on the top of a picket fence in avoiding a decision. If Obama falls onto the fence – ouch

• A hyper political trial in the middle of a world wide economic meltdown
• Just turn this page in history and forget about it?
• Nail the lawyers (Bybee and others) and let the rest go?
• Another solution?

Post YOUR comments at the bottom of the blog (preferable) or send them to me and I’ll post them under anonymous or under an alias.

STOCKS

Technicals & Fundamentals

Mantra -Forget all about the major indexes - What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

Earning season continues - 

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +4.70% in decreased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) This leading index is the one to watch.

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.70.

The major fundamental is that the government is going to announce the results of a “Stress Test” on the 19 major shadow banks on May 4th. However, today the Banks start to get the preliminary info.

If all (or almost all) the banks pass the “stress test” it will be looked at as a phony.  If a bunch of banks fail then they will get toasted and others might rise.  This is all very vague and no one knows the criteria for the stress test.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!