Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
February 27, 2012

Greed

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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GREED

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The Vampire Bankstas

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In Vegas you need to have actual money to gamble – your own money – You win lose or draw.

What Banksta greed has done since  deregulation  was…

  • take YOUR money, and gamble with it
  • with NO requirement or significant risk to their money
  • and over leverage themselves on opaque derivative/credit default swaps markets

You’ve seen the consequences and now its time for…


The Bankstas Cover Up

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Back before banks were deregulated, a special group of banks that met our Central Bank’s requirements were given special legal privileges and access to taxpayer money.

They could borrow money from the Fed for almost nothing and then lend it right back to the Fed at a higher interest rate – say 3%.

This actually helped money flow through the system.

But after the 2008 meltdown and the banks got soooooooo over leveraged they needed truck loads of money to cover old losses and new (think European debt) So Central banks printed and printed and printed money and loaned it out to their member banks.

How much money was printed for Bankstas?

The Fed (our central bank) balance sheet on 2/22 stood at $2,917,435,000,000 &

the ECB (Europes Central Bank) balance sheet stood at $3,550,000,000,000 on 1/1/12

$6,500,000,000,000

to keep their too big to fail

unregulated Casino open

Tomorrow – Solutions.

Much of this 6 part series was inspired by Dylan Ratigan’s book Greedy Bastards.

Link to Chart/Timeline of Banksta Takeover

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

We’re still in the CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH sweet spot, but there are dark clouds on the horizon.


  • Sweet Spot Mantra - “INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
  • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”

The Dark Clouds/Oil Prices


This is now one obvious call that Investors411 first warned about on 1/6/12 and 1/17/12

Suggested ETFs for oil – USO (1 x oil prices) & UCO (2 x oil prices)

If you bought UCO on Jan. 17th you are now up

+20%

The primary fear behind this rise in oil prices is the threat of war between Israel and Iran.

Intrade, now puts the possibility of an overt air strike against by US or Iran by Dec 2012 at 42.5%.

  • This is political season and fear mongering is what the far right does best.
  • The current PM of Israel is extremely right wing and visits USA on March 5th.
  • Yes this is exactly what happened in Iraq.

Obama – on oil prices

Oil prices have gone up 9 days in a row and 12 of the last 13 days. By most all accounts overbought territory.

However, if you have lots of long positions, you should still think about some protection or taking some profits.

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  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -6.88. 50 Day Moving Average at +20.20 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • The European canary in a coal mine is chirping. But focus is going to be drawn more on Israel/Iran because of the Israel PM visit and politics.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield at 5.45% (8:30 EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.

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Paul’s Corner

SIMO is being dropped from Your Stock List due to chart action.  The Semi Group has been doing well but SIMO broke down and hasn’t been following the group. It’s a maker of flash drives and will be watched for possible adding back to the list.

SWI is being moved from the Watchers section up to the Traders section.  SolarWinds, Inc. designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software to IT professionals. SWI and old member of a previous list is showing good chart action and may give us a good run.

Kudos to Ian Woodward!

You have heard me speak often about the HGS Investors group and Ian Woodward in particular. Ian is an inspiration to all that are lucky enough to come into contact with him. John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger bands concept, had some kind words for Ian when he was interviewed in the upcoming March issue of “Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities”. Here is what Bollinger says in part:

“A little more than two years ago, I had the pleasure of spending time with Ian Woodward, who has been doing some interesting things with Bollinger Bands.  It was an inspiring time for me.”

“Ian Woodward is an amazing guy….A couple of years back, a mutual friend arranged for Ian to drop by and show me the work he was doing, and I was very impressed.  Here was a man nearly XXX years old (true age redacted!!!) with more ideas and energy than most people half his age.  He has taken input from William O’Neil, Richard Arms and me and crafted an approach to investing that seeks to identify and participate in high-growth stocks.  He gives three day seminars twice a year that are jam-packed with interesting ideas.   I even had one of the guys who works for me attend.  I think that in the fullness of time he’ll be known as one of the great analysts.”

Ian’s next work shop is in a month if you are serious about investing you should attend!

http://www.highgrowthstock.com/Seminars/seminars.htm

European Markets are down, our futures are down, have we seen the top? Be careful!

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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March 4, 2011

Real News

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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Real News

Be still my beating heart, Hillary Clinton, gets it and she’s not afraid to tell the world.

Our Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton launched a verbal broadside against American media and its headlined in the Huffington Post One of the sheep/cows has woken up to the fact of just how phony American media is.

Clinton -

  • Al Jazeera offers “real news”
  • US is loosing “information war” in the world

“You may not agree with it [Al Jazeera], but you feel like you’re getting real news around the clock instead of a million commercials and, you know, arguments between talking heads and the kind of stuff that we do on our news which, you know, is not particularly informative to us, let alone foreigners.

More Sophisticated Trading

One of Investors411 mottos is to try to keep it simple. So the following is a bit out of context, but it involves two long term position which I hold and you may be interested in. They involve leveraged ETF’s UCO and TMV, & the use of covered calls.

  • TMV is 3x leveraged (bearish) to 20+ year treasury bonds. I think inflation is inevitable because of all the quantitative easing and yields will eventually rise.
  • UCO is 2x leveraged oil prices. I think, because of growing demand and limited low cost oil higher prices are here to stay.

I have bought these stocks and sold/opened a call option on them. Example – I bought 100 shares of UCO last week at $51, and sold a call at $55 for March 18th. This means the other person has the right to buy my UCO for $55 on the 3rd Friday of the month. That person payed me $160 to do this or about 3% premium. So I made 3% already and on March 18th if everything works out I can sell another covered call on the same UCO and make another premium. Sweet, but there are dangers and lots of other factors involved.

  • Sorry ran out of time and I’ve just started. - to be continued. – see comments section later today for more.


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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.59% up
NASDQ +1.84% flat
S&P 500 +1.72% up
Russell 2000 +2.22% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • The same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building trading pattern gains in small volume. This time is was BIG gains
  • The impact of higher oil prices around the world has become a threat to globalized growth and US markets have not yet decided the impact higher oil prices
  • Many forced to cover short positions, so we had a big swing up
  • Oil prices above $100 (now for two days) will have a bigger impact on emerging markets than the USA. So the longer prices stay high the worse it is for the economy and eventually stocks.
  • Alan Greenspan’s view on the economy
  • Jobs report for February below – Remember a good jobs number means the more likely quantitative easing will end sooner rather than later and/or there will be no QE #3. Scheduled ending June 30th. So good news on jobs may be bad news for stocks.

Employment numbers for Feb. are - 8.9% unemployment Figure and +192,000 jobs created.

Good headlines for the public and about what was expected. AP on numbers

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell again. This time -0.24% yesterday . Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index (see below) For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to  +24.63Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. MO Stocks outlook = Neutral/Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The McClellan Index has worked almost flawlessly over the past few months. Check out the chart above. Therefore, with the MO at +25, in the short term we are probably very near a top. Longer term trend is still with the bulls.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPLBounced off its 50 DMA support level. Back approaching new high

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Inched out to new two month high yesterday
  • RJA 1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • UCO -
  • UWM was bought  yesterday at 47.34

Another 3% trailing stop today on both REMX & RJA today.

UCO -Will sell 1/2 of UCO if profits exceed 5%. 5% trailing stop

UWM – A +25 on the MO shows there is not a lot of upside left in the UWM. So will probably sell into small rally and have set 3% trailing stop. Buying with such a high MO was probably a mistake.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

DBC(Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETNnot an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 29, 2010

Stock Outlook for 2011

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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Stocks 2011

The economic outlook for the USA is no better than 2009 or 2010. Every time we learn more about the unregulated, over leveraged 2008 financial and housing meltdown the wore it gets.

The 3 dominant mega trends are still significantly impacting economics and stocks across the world. Investors411 has added a 4th – Lies/deception/opaque capitalism.  The 4th trend is growing in the world’s largest economy – the USA & ultimately will devastate economics if it continue.

The problems in the USA are both systemic and due to our dependence of unregulated, opaque, casino capitalism.

There are sectors, countries and asset classes that should do well in 2011. So here’s a rough list that I will  go over in detail tomorrow and Friday

  • Gold
  • US financials (I hate these bastards)
  • Brazil, Norway & other energy rich countries
  • Rare earth sector (from steel to solar materials)
  • China’s wind and solar power industry
  • Energy
  • Even US major indexes should do well – as long as Fed supports them.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.18% up
NASDQ -0.16% up
S&P 500 +0.08% flat
Russell 2000 -0.36% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Markets were flat & volume abysmal
  • Infamous AIG rocketed almost +10% higher Monday. Opened higher  and ended day with slight loss. AIG held almost all of 10% gain is Bullish for stock and shadow financials.
  • Repeat – Weak trading means two entities dominate High Frequency Traders and the Fed.
  • Double dip In Housing Prices is happening. – Roubini – Data seems to back up his conclusion that home values are on way down again.
  • Decline in housing value is bad news economically for the economy & your house. But good news for stocks because it gives Fed more justification to keep quantitative easing and low interest rates going.
  • Consumer confidence dips amid job worries

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was unchanged  0.00% yesterday. It started out way down and recovered. In consolidation pattern= Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Both sources have not posted BDI results for yesterday. Strange & I do not know why. From yesterday – BDI is at 1,773 and rapidly approaching its major support at 1700= Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +9.98 = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Paul R stated last evening in comments section that “Looking at the charts and market internals again, things are NOT looking good. Market leaders are breaking down.”

He’s Right - Nothing has felt right about this overbought market. All the major indexes are over extended above their 50 day moving averages. Many of the momentum stocks are consolidating or heading down. This is also a strange holiday week & because of the ultra light volume so its hard to make a clear call.

AAPL is the big kahuna out there for stocks and especially technology. It’s not over bought. If you look at the chart you can see a pretty constant 6 week trend where Apple moves,let’s cal it one standard deviation higher than its rising 50 day moving average. APPL inched out to a new high yesterday. If Apple breaks down watch out!

Always remember – This market is being held up by artificial means – the Fed. That means when bad news occurs like housing prices dipped for 4th straight month & consumer confidence is falling – stock traders think the answer will be more quantitative easing by Fed. This doesn’t mean we can’t have a correction, but over 18+ months its shown there is support under stocks that make buying the dip successful.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) – Sold 1/2  for +9% profit
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO – (double short the EURO currency)
  • UCO – (double long oil) Bought Tuesday at  12.39 (this is a trade of short duration)

Below is rather technical and might make your eyes glass over. However, if you want to have the basic tools for investing I do strongly urge you go to Chart School (see below)

UCO - Trade -Reasoning –  This is NOT a trade I should have made in Investors411 because it breaks the basic strategy of buy the dip of a trending sector. My bad – several of you sent me personal emails on this and the following is my reply.

  • To make any trades (as opposed to long term investments) you have to understand candlestick chart patterns,
  • In fact, StockCharts – perhaps THE best FREE site on technical analysis has a who tutorial or school section.
  • Almost All the links to charts at Investors411 are links to StockCharts.com charts from the $USD to the individual stocks listened on Your Stock List in the POSITIONS section of blog.
  • Tom DeMark developed a 9 day momentum trading system that has nothing to do with Stockcharts, but to understand the system you have to know how to use candlestick charts.
  • Here’s a good example of the DeMark system on ETF’s in video I did go over this on Dec. 1.
  • I believe UCO is going to be a good long term investment because oil is likely to hit $100 or more. Historically oil prices go up as summer riving season approaches and emerging markets are demanding more oil.
  • However oil prices are at a new yearly high and a long term investor (not trader) should buy the dip in UCO.
  • What I saw was a half decent DeMark 9 trade. A breakout that had yet to run out of momentum. It had only 6 days of momentum from a low and I plan to get out on the 9th.
  • This is not the best use of this system. Another reason I regret announcing the UCO trade.
  • However I will hold onto UCO till day 9 and willing to take a 2% hit on the ETF. (I placed a 2% stop below the price I bought it for)

Bottom Line – there are a lot of trading systems out there. This is one of the better known. None of these systems is perfect. I just happened on this system over a decade ago and often use it for shorter term momentum trades. From DeMark’s Wikipedia listing “His timing techniques have become the industry’s standard.”

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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