Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Michael Jackson

Photo – Huffington Post

Jackson’s memorial service ("a variety show with a coffin") was carried by 19 networks and seen by 31.1 million viewers. Chris Hedge’s – The Man in The Mirror editorial has an enlightening view of American culture it begins like this.

"I n celebrity culture we destroy what we worship. The commercial exploitation of Michael Jackson’s death was orchestrated by the corporate forces that rendered Jackson insane. Jackson, robbed of his childhood and surrounded by vultures that preyed on his fears and weaknesses, was so consumed by self-loathing he carved his African-American face into an ever-changing Caucasian death mask and hid his apparent pedophilia behind a Peter Pan illusion of eternal childhood. He could not disentangle his public and his private self. He became a commodity, a product, one to be sold, used and manipulated. He was infected by the moral nihilism and personal disintegration that are at the core of our corporate culture. And his fantasies of eternal youth, delusions of majesty, and desperate, disfiguring quests for physical transformation were expressions of our own yearning. He was a reflection of us in the extreme…"

You can read the whole editorial here

Chris Hedges is author of "Empire of Illusion: The End of Literacy and the Triumph of  Spectacle."

Iran

Friday could be an important day in the country that now has more jailed journalist than any other county. Rafsanjani , who is not an Ahmadinejad backer, is leading Friday prayers and the opposition has promised to flood the area. Story here

Huffington Post’s Nico Pitn ey still #1 in coverage here

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

Markets staged a big time rally and volume increased, but it was still not above average. The major technical question becomes can we break the series of lower highs and lower lows? We have held and formed a strong support level at SPX 875 . The S&P closed at 901 and we need to close above @ 930 to take out the lower high or major resistance level.

After falling, as predicted, to the S&P 875 support level, the bulls have reinforced the barricades and held their position for the last two days.  The longer they hold out the stronger the bulls position becomes. Here come the bulls led by financial stocks that have been soaping up low interest money from the Fed and TARP programs. Loans are not pouring out of these institutions to struggling homeowners, but they are making a killing on the loans they do make, the government bonds and derivatives they sell/insure.  Not having mark to market accounting allows them  special accounting methods other institutions do not have.

Financials are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because t he Obama administration & the Fed has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown. Financials led yesterday’s rally  XLF up +6.4% – Increased, above average volume indicates Bulls Rule – rally to continue in financials.

Mea Culpa – The amount of the rally in financials has caught me a little off guard. I thought all the traders were already long this sector and the rally would be about 2 to 3+% not 6+%.

Earnings season is off to a good start. But technically markets were oversold and the 875 level held. Fundamentally, Still looking for Intel (reports after closing) to set the tone.

Intel’s earnings report (after the bell today) is still the key to any breakout. US markets have started to move higher on good news  So momentum is with the bulls

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 9th day in a row.  However, the rate of decline has slowed dramatically & more each day  This chart works a little different from most other charts in that it is a lot smoother and less volatile. The fact that the decline rate has dramatically narrowed is a positive for bulls

Unfortunately, over the last six weeks we have a series of lower high, lower lows, and a broken support level. That’s positive for bears. Over the last six months we have dramatically risen off the lows – Long term Positive for bulls

In a nut shell the BDI is

• short term - seems to be turning bullish (emphasis on seems )
  
• mid term – clear bearish pattern
• long term - bullish pattern
  

$USD - The Dollar is still comfortably in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+.

—–

Fearless Forecast – So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week

Our Positions

The Hedge – Still little change in overall position QLD -5.11% and SDS +5.89% = a gain of +0.79% This trade may take a months to reach a 5% to 10% gain/loss.

Alternative Energy – GEX/PBW – Now completely out of this sector and looking for a way back in or a buy the dip opportunity. There are several fundamental factors going on here. Most importantly it looks like oil prices are moving lower and that will hurt alternative energy.  If we have a significant summer rally oil prices and alternative energy could rise and we will miss out on some potential gains.

Financials - For traders (not investors) there is potential buy the dip opportunities in the ultra long ETF’s not XLF but UYG (@2x XLF) and FAS (@3x ELF)

Foreign ETF’s – Still would like to see a bit more of a dip to buy more FXI, EWZ & IFN . For a short time, momentum may swing back to US equities, but the long term trend is clearly with these growing economies.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

What’s Up? – Cheney – Truth Serum – Exposing the “Sith” Lord – Darth Cheney; 4 overlooked facts; Col Wilkerson on the “Sith” Lord; Torture; Friday Funnies: Summer doldrums come early to US stock markets; Reading the Tea Leaves

Darth Cheney -Truth Serum 

• More Americans were killed by terrorists under his administration than any other.
• “American Don’t Torture” was at least as big a lie as Clinton’s “I didn’t have sex with that women.”
• Cheney /Bush authorized a massive torture system that include torture to find fictitious WMD’s in Iraq.
• The Cheney/Bush torture program was the (or a) major reason Islamic terrorism has grown. (unjust invasion if Iraq other major cause)

The Abu Ghraib torture photos (early 2004) basally put an end to the massive torture and rendition program. Participants became too fearful of retribution. Therefore, since the beginning of 2004 mainland America has remained safe without a huge torture program. See Steve Clemons/Larry Wilkerson editorial on Cheney for more. 

Col. Wilkerson , Secretary Powell’s chief of staff, is horrified at the damage Limbaugh and the “Sith” Lord(from Star Wars) Cheney is doing to his Republican party. 

Friday Funnies 

In keeping with a new tradition – keeping Friday funny – here’s Darth Cheney, err, Darth Vader video of him conduction the star troopers orchestra

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

-

“Capitalism Could Fail” is the headline story on CNBC this AM by noted bear Marc Faber

6 Insurance Companies got themselves over leveraged and will receive $22 billion in TARP $. WSJ story Insurance companies are a big part of the Shadow Banking system.

Technicals & Fundamentals

Prediction at beginning of week – Right now this looks like natural profit taking after a big run higher. I could develop into a reversal if volume increases. – Unless we have a major move higher we will end the week down.

Volume has dried up to a trickle. Looks like an ocean with no breeze. No breeze means no direction.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) after three down days rose (as predicted – see last two days) +3.34% in below average declining volume. Volume is NOT confirming the price move.

Taking your ownadvise – I did not buy FAS – as I urged short term day and swing traders – boy what a mistake. Would have made @10% and got out. 

With volume NOT confirming the price move – its hard to use XFL today as a short term forecast tool. But longer term bullish trend is still in place.

Market’s Major Mantra – Again If Shadow Banks go up – so will stocks. If Shadow banks go down so will stocks 

WTIC charts “Light Crude Oil”.(see chart) Notice after Oil hit a low @$37 a barrel in Feb. it rose to a range between $48 and $54 for over a month and over a month ago it broke out and two days ago reached a high of almost $60. 

Yesterday oil prices rose +0.76% to $59.42. The major resistance level is @$60 and a move above this would be bullish for stocks and bad for consumers. Summer driving season is around the corner and historically prices rise at this time.

BDI, The Baltic Dry Sea Index, that measures worldwide trade has reached a new high this year. The fact that prices to ship goods worldwide is moving higher is bullish for stocks.

Reading the Tea Leaves – Summer doldrums seem to have started early. The BDI & higher oil prices (secondary forecast tools) are both bullish. The overriding fundamental factor is Shadow Banks – So far they have pretty much got what they want from the Obama administration – Banks privatized gains and Taxpayers socializing losses. 

So after some more consolidation we’ll probably see a move higher. Of course unexpected news can change all this.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

WHAT’S UP? - Prisoner Journalists Roxana Saberi & Sami al Hajj; Media’s huge bias; Understanding why people really act as they do may be completely different from what you have been conditioned to believe; A sucker’s Wall St. Rally? Oil Prices gushing, & Shadow Banks.

AP photo of  Roxana Saberi

The Enormous Bias in the Media

Roxana Sabreri is the American/Iranian jounalist who was recently convicted of spying  in a secret trial trial in Iran. She was released yesterday and American media is understandably happy. It’s a major story and demonstrates many of the many of the injustices within Iran. The months she spent in jail in Iran were clearly unjustified.  This is something almost all of us in “civilized” countries are happy about.

——— 

But have you even heard of Prisoner # 345. – Sami al Hajj –

The rest of the world has

 We see ourselves painted by the light of American media bias. The Muslim world see a differently painted bias.

To create a solution and build a better future you have to at least understand why the other side takes the actions it does.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

-

Long Term Outlook

Quotes from Positions section of blog-  Fundamentals - The problem in the financial sector is far far far far far bigger than fist imagined. Impact of this mess is going to take years to resolve. Quote from Strategy section of blog - This is NOT your fathers buy and hold market. 

It is very feasible to see stocks rally as GDP rises from @-6% in the USA to perhaps 0%. However, the long term viability, after that concept is built into stock prices, is the major concern. The Upcoming War with Shadow Banks will be the first big test for the future. 

Is this a sucker’s rally – From the WSJ 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Major down day for most major markets except NASDQ.  Volume decreased and was below average. Therefore, volume did NOT confirm the price move. The NASDQ had a major loss with increased volume 3 trading days ago.  So far volume has not confirmed the losses on any major index including financials (see below & charts onside of blog)

Right now this looks like natural profit taking after a big run higher. I could develop into a reversal if volume increases.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) fell -5.84%% in decreased below average volume.  Since the current rally began two months ago only 4 times have we had two down days in a row for financials.  So if today is another down day in, especially in light volume, short term traders might (day and swing traders) might see it as an opportunity to buy.

If Shadow Banks go up – so will stocks. If Shadow banks go down so will stocks – The mantra of the markets for the past two months continues.

WTIC charts “Light Crude Oil”.(see chart) Notice after Oil hit a low @$37 a barrel in Feb. it rose to a range between $48 and $54 for over a month and over a month ago it broke out and two days ago reached a high of almost $60. 

This breakout move above $54 has two sides two opposite sides (Bullish & Bearish) to it. 

• Oil above $54 indicates that investors see a recovery in the future that can sustain higher oil prices
• Higher oil prices hurt American consumers whose purchasing power are critical to the recovery.

What happens to Shadow Banks is still the dominant factor controlling what other stocks do. Investors411 has given the good,the bad and the ugly of the privatizing the gains and socializing the risk in Shadow Banks – The clear positive is the gainsonWall Street.

The upcoming war  - We have rapidly created an incredibly massive subsidy system for America’s Shadow Institutions – How do we disconnect from these wealthy welfare recipients?

Most likely senerio for week -  Consolidation or profit taking. Let Shadow banks be your guide.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

Trends –   The worshiping of violence in the USA. Gun permits = mass murders. Shadow banks used to wait for the latest gift from the Bush administration. Now they wait for their gift from the Obama administration to rally the stock market. New Shadow Bank Watch Sector posted in STOCKS section of blog. Happy Passover.

Gun Permits – The Common Thread in 57 Mass Murders Since March 10th

Bravo to local news station Channel 10 in Syracuse NY. The above photo from them is the gun permit of Jiverly Wong who killed 13 innocent people in Binghamton NY.  This story and more carried by Huffington Post.

The recent rampage of mass murders in the USA all had one thing in common – these killers had GUN PEMITS. No where in the developed world is it easier for a mentally deranged or emotionally disturbed sicko to get a gun. 

Americans Love their guns. The National Rifle Association (NRA) protects all gun lovers. Our 3% of the population produces 50% of the world’s weapons.

The Huffington Post story carries examples like the bill in Texas that will allow 300,000 Texans to bring guns on college  campuses.

“There are 280 million guns out there in the USA” says Scott Vogel of the Freedom States Alliance  Do the math 280 million guns is a humongous amount of weapons – you’re bound get an “epidemic” of violence. Just like Tthe more you keep increasing the amount of nuclear weapons the easier its going to be for a terrorist to use one.

You can do something about the causes behind growing violence and join FSA Then again you can wait till one of these emotionally disturbed sicko’s with a gun permit shatters a life close to you.

Happy Passover

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

STOCKS

-

Technicals & Fundamentals

 Markets lost ground as volume was well below average.  You never like to lose over 2%, but volume did not confirm the move so technically  last two days retreat = still short term bullish – a weak declining volume retreat. 

Baltic Dry (Sea) Index - (see chart link on side of blog)  Measures flow of goods/trade and is a leading economic indicator.

Since 3/10 the BDI has fallen each day and yesterday was again  no exception. Another @1.35%  Total loss from high more than 31%.   How many days in a row can an index fall?  Right mow it’s 20 trading days in a row.  The rate of change (fall) has slowed a little. Perhaps a positive.

Reading the Tea Leaves - From Yesterday - As long as  Shadow Banks/Institutions are going to get bailed out by taxpayers instead of bond/stock holders then the rally is on. That seems to be the direction Geithner Summers & Bernanke are headed. Trillions in wealth is changing hands.  

Forget all the other chatter, this massive transfer of wealth to shadow banks, and allowing them to be less transparent is what is holding up US stock markets. 

If your just a dumb taxpayer you have plenty to worry about because it sure looks like your getting robbed.

Shadow Banks Watch

XLF (financials/banks) is therefore the key sector to watch. Checkout the chart and tecnically you will see that the XLF has tried to move above @9.75 for almost 3 weeks and failed. It closed at 9.15 yesterday down -2.87%.

Earnings season does matter, but what happens to the power of shadow banks in the shorter term, (next month or two) dictates what happens to the markets. Shadow banks/industry will break out above 9.75 when the next large gift from Summers, Geitner and Bernanke gets showered down on them. 

Next up comming decision – How much of the insurance industry (think companies like AIG) will be allowed to take TARP funds.

Pakistan the epicenter of terrorism – Wins one for Democracy.  Are stocks on a bull run or a dead cat bounce?; AIG – Follow the money.  Are We All Socialists Now? The financial channel ducks and covers. An uplifting  comment/story by Stewart E. – about hanging together in tough economic times.

Pakistan Wins One for Democracy

The lawyers and opposition leaders “Long March” to have the Supreme Court Chief who was ousted under the former dictator seems to have won a major victory. It was bloody, but the  government caved in as police/army refused to keep beating the demonstrators and Mr Chaundhry (former chief justice) was reinstated. For more see NYT or Times of India

__________

AIG – Follow The Money

We’ve shoveled $180 billion into AIG to keep he worlds entire financial system from going under. Yet we still can’t find out exactly where the money has gone. No one talked – For five months everyone’s lips have been wired shut. – the company, the Bush administration, the Obama administration  & the Fed. See NYT Saturday editorial

The icing on this toxic cake is the crooks at AIG are being given $165 million dollar bonuses (a “contractual obligation”) including the small division that traded credit default swaps and sunk the company. More from Financial Post

AIG caved yesterday to all the pressure and listed most of the companies who it owed $ to. Hint – the trading of toxic, over leveraged debt with these other mega crooks. Opps, my mistake they are called financial companies. Check out the list or crooks here 

They haven’t caved on the bonuses yet.

__________

CNBC Ducks and Covers 

After heavily promoting the Jon Stewart/Jim Cramer smackdown. Not a word could be found about it  on CNBC financial channels or blog. Further indication of just how badly Cramer did and how mad  common folks are at the”Fast Money” financial news network. Here’s the LINK to the original Stewart shot across the bow. 

_________

Are we All Socialist’s Now?

Over the last 4 decades the far right has hammered Americans with how poor our government does thing vs. the wonders unregulated capitalism.

The answer to them is take a look at the socialist systems of public eduction, police departments, fire departments post offices, and libraries. Do you really think AIG, GM Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers would have done a better job?

What would have happened if Social Security had been tied to the stock market?

We’re not socialists, but Americans are waking up to the fact that unregulated capitalism is a huge rip off, and government is the only institution strong enough to regulate it.

__________

Solutions

In the comments section (on right side of blog) you’ll find a comment and a story  submitted by Stewart E. who notes “we are all in this together” The story about Beth Israel hospital and how they are handling the recession. It’s author or a “A Head with a Heart.” is Boston Globe columnist Kevin Cullin

________

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

FDR and Stimulus

President Herbert Hover eighty years ago offered no stimulus or loans to a crumbling economy. As a consequence bank after bank failed Unemployment rose above 25 % and by the time Roosevelt (FDR) took over in 1932 we were already in the Great Depression . But, FDR made progress and consequently Americans overwhelmingly re elected him to office in 36. By 1937 he had through a massive government stimulus program reversed the growing unemployment figure and reduced it to under 15 %.

Unfortunately FDR, tried to balance the budget too early in 1937 and the recovery slowed. Again Americans showed overwhelming confidence in FDR and reelected him in 1940. American’s vote again confirmed confidence in his stimulus program. WW2 was in itself one big government stimulus program as was the post WW 2 GI bills and other economic measures. We emerged from all this government stimulus far stronger.

Basic economics teaches you to stimulate faltering economies and when times are good you don’t stimulate, but lower deficits. Many ultra right wing zealots are now trying to re write FDR’s historic economic actions and leadership. These are the same voices that believed "free markets" need no regulations, and lead us into the current crisis.

Undoubtedly, the government has done a poor job in transparency and accountability in the current stimulus and loans packages. However, we have not had the cascading loss of banks and insurance companies (AIG) that would have led to other industries collapsing throughout the world. This is NOT a plea for blanket bailouts. Poorly managed companies have to be allowed to fail. But it does clearly show government stimulating and regulating a faltering economy works.

Bill Cosby and Education

Bill Cosby last Sunday on Face the Nation came up with some interesting statistics on why we should be offering more funding for inner city schools. It costs us $41,000 a year to incarcerate a prisoner and only $8,000 educate a child. You pay now or pay later. Add to this that incarcerated prisoners and welfare moms pay no taxes vs someone who enters the work force and pays taxes.

Funding education should be a priority. (more later)

Stocks.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Headline – Citigroup, AA & Retail #’s -Bad news.

Index % Change Volume

Dow -0.30% up
NASDQ +0.50% up
S&P500 +0.18% up
Russell2000 +1.06% –

italics = same comments as yesterday.

US Market & Foreign Markets

Technicals – Major US markets "churned" yesterday. That’s the term Wall Street uses for high volume days where the market went nowhere.

XLF is the financial sector ETF Chart here. As the chart shows financials rose +1.37% yesterday after loosing over -5% the day before. While any gain is positive, a +1.37 gain is not enough to put the bulls back in charge. Financials used to be the largest sector of the market and may no longer hold that distinction. But they are certainly capable of leading all major indexes lower.

The major indexes are at their major support levels (just above or below). Volume is starting to pick up. This is never a good sign as we start to move lower. Foreign markets are following the US lead.

AA is the symbol for Alcoa Aluminum, the first Dow company to report. It went down again another 5% in massive volume yesterday. Early indications are negative earnings and outlook are not built into markets and investors are beginning to realize there is going to be no second half recovery. (Bad news for stocks)

Chart of the benchmark S&P 500

Chart of the Russell 2000

Chart of the NASDQ

Chart of the Dow

Fundamentals – What’s happened is the Bush administration has asked congress for the second 1/2 of the poorly administered bank/financials (and auto) bailout/loans. The Obama administration will oversee the use of these funds. This has spooked stocks – especially financials. CitiGroup, the mother of all banks, broke support levels and fell 17% in huge volume. City has already twice received bailout funds. Citi is in the too big to fail category and its failure would mean a run on suspect banks worldwide. Citi did recover +5% in reduced volume yesterday. Problem – Citigroup is up to its neck in credit default swaps.

The bottom line – Just the knowledge that the government thinks the bank/financial needs more financial help is enough to make worried investors panic and sell. This time the Panic is a bit more orderly, but with no transparency and no accountability its pretty hard to invest in a financial stock. You know they’re in trouble, especially Citigroup, but who knows which ones will go belly up and what criteria the government is using to hand out loans.

Obama Rally = HOPE A whole bunch of stimulus that has already been thrown at stocks, plus the composition of Obama’s economic team & his proposed stimulus package.

Earnings season begins this week. However, Citigroup remains the stock to watch.

Retail sales numbers out this AM are far worse than expected.

Treasury Secretary Geitner, who Wall Street likes, nomination is in trouble.

Forecasting Future Trends

The following is a group of indexes that are all interrelated and strongly influence how stocks moves. At different times one index may be more influential than the other.

LIBOR – LIBOR is the rate banks charge each other. It price has fallen from 3.4% three months ago to about 1.08% (good news for stocks)

LIBOR chart (3 month)

Treasuries – T Bills yields show how fearful investors are. The lower the rate the more the fear. Short term yields – 3 month rose to +0.07% and longer term treasuries were basically flat. 10 year fell to 2.29% (low yields show fearfull investors flooding to Treasuries instead of stocks – Bad news for stocks)

Treasury Bonds chart

Baltic Dry Index – Measures flow of goods between countries. Yesterday it rose another 2+% yesterday. Almost 85% drop since June. (short term good news a 2, 4, 6, 2, & 2% gains in last 5 days)

BDI chart

We’ve seen a short term pop in international trade to go along with a solid bullish move in inter bank lending rates. Both are bullish signs. However, Panic still rules the credit markets. Prices of major banks are have again started to go south. Looks like at some time another chunk of bailout $ is going to be needed to fix banks in the future. Bush yesterday announced he’s going for the second chunk of bailout/loan money.

Short Term Outlook/Strategy

Reading the Tea Leaves-

PANIC STILL RULES the credit markets

Strategy – Shorting rallies to protect gains is working. (see below) Until we some light at the end of the recession tunnel VOLATILITY continues to be the most predictable major stock market trend. Obama rally (stimulus package) is holding up equities right now.

There are some positives out there but -

Add a falling financial sector, AA news, & now the miserable retail #’s = the Dow 8500 support and other major index support level will NOT hold.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Long Term Outlook – BEARS RULE

Changes to Bottom Line Section Bolded .

Technicals – Series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs = Bears Rule. Obama/stimulus rally phase 2 is underway. Technical Range for 2009 – 7449 (low) and 9654.- This is a wild guess. Any sustained move above Dow 9650 is bullish.

Fundamentals – Financial transparency problem is far far far far far far far far far bigger than anyone thought. It’s looks like the recession will last through 2009 – perhaps longer Hopes of a more competent Obama administration have rallied stocks.

Asset Allocation/Recommended Sectors (long term)

50% to 90% Cash – Long Term Investors (up to 15 to 25+% stocks – only buy big dips) Wait for the next big dip to add 5 to 10%
Be Cautious and PROTECT YOUR MONEY (use ETF’s that short major indexes) when stocks have a big rally

*5+% US Index Funds
UWM (ETF that does 2x what Russell 2000 does) & QLD (ETF that does 2X the NASDQ ) DDM (ETF that does 2X the Dow ) SSO (ETF does 2X the S&P 500)

*5%+ Emerging Markets
EWZ (Brazil) should out perform other emerging markets in a rally and under perform in a fall – highest risk and dependent on oil prices
FXI (China ETF) should outperform USA

*5%+ Alternative Energy
GEX(Alternative energy ETF) Obama administration will focus on this area

*5+% Gold
GLD is the ETF for gold-

Chief Strategy – Buy the DIPS of trending sector – This is not your father’s buy and hold market – over the 8 Bush years the Dow has gone from 11,000 to 9000 and huge uncertainty clouds the future.

The major trend now is volatility.

Traders who have a strong tolerance for risk jump in on dips and invest more. Sell and/or go short into major rallies. Long term Investors who can tolerate risk and are 100% in cash nibble just a little on big dips. (5% on each big dip) Do not buy into rallies.

Shorting – Three ETF that short 2x what the major indexes do.

TWM – ultra short Russell 2000
QID – ultra short NASDQ
SDS – ultra short S&P 500

As Always Do Your Own Research Before Investing