Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 11, 2010

Financial Reform

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Senator Ted Kaufman (D DE)

Financial Reform

Sadly, financial reform of greed based capitalism, shadow banks, and greater market transparency continues to deteriorate. At times it seems  as if  the 2008 meltdown never happened

Steve Forbes, this AM on CNBC proudly announced the list of the world’s richest billionaires has significantly grown in size and money, as real unemployment is the USA has fallen to near 20% (The billionaire, obviously, did not offer the last 1/2 of this comparison) Forbes, of course, does not want “big” government to regulate greed based capitalism. Outside of a few voices within the Obama administration (Paul Volker, Elizabeth Warren etc.) both the administration and the lobbyist that dominate congress seem to agree – Let business take all the risks it wants and us taxpayers plus our kids will pay trillions to fix all their mistakes

Senator Ted Kaufman (D-DE) is one of the people who is not afraid to stand up for rules based capitalism. On his website is the speech he plans to deliver today.

One legacy of the Great Depression was we built a rules based capitalist system that endured and dominated the world until a few decade ago. Here’s a summary of his ideas from The Baseline Senerio

  • Excessive deregulation allowed big finance to get out of control from the 1980s – but particularly during and after the 1990s.  This led directly to the economic catastrophe in 2007-08.
  • We need to modernize and apply the same general principles that were behind the Glass-Steagall, i.e., separating “boring” but essential commercial banking (running payments, offering deposits-with-insurance, etc) from “risky” other forms of financial activity
  • We need size caps on the biggest banks in our financial system, preferably as a percent of GDP.
  • We should tighten capital requirements substantially.
  • And we must regulate derivatives more tightly – on this issue, he likes at least some of the steps being pushed by Gary Gensler at the CFTC.

The stock market will rise because Senator Kaufman’s speech is NOT impending legislation. But unless we do something we will continue to repeat the mistakes of the past and every taxpayer and their child will continue to pay an enormous price - “socializing the risk and privatizing the gain”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.o3% down
NASDQ +0.78% down
S&P 500 +0.45% down
Russell 2000 +0.79% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Another melt up day in decreased volume. Right now it seems, even though US markets are overbought, they are poised to move higher on any piece of good news.

As suggested yesterday the XLF (ETF for financial stocks) was one of several possible catalysts for continuing the rally. As the chart shows, its broken out to new highs over the last two days in increased volume.  Basically, any meaningful attempt to shadow institutions and bring transparency to related markets is getting crushed. Therefore, it sure looks like the shadow financials  will add fuel to the stock rally

Shorter term traders - Even though we are overbought, it sure looks like the McClellan will reach above 80 sooner rather than later. You might want to go long with TYH(3X technology) or FAS (3X what financials do) Buy a dip and keep tight stops.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose a bit to +64.63 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
  • BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule BDI has flattened out in the last tree days

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

IMAX – has exploded higher in HUGE volume.  It has “gaped” higher three days in a row.  In short, its going elliptical. That means expect a pull back. IMAX also reports earnings today.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 20, 2009

Market Updates – Foreign Policy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

What’s Up - Pakistan  - Are we making the same mistakes? ; Israel/Palastine - an ineviable war and a path not taken; Polls and Avaaza; Markets continue low volume & low volatility. Stocks held onto Monday’s gains; Volume and volatility continue to fall. Bulls with the football

Refugees.jpg

Refugees (Photo LA Times)

Pakistan

Are we going to learn from the mistakes of the past? Right now the Pakistan government is fighting the Taliban in certain areas of Pakistan. This has created a refugee problem of  almost a million people. 

One report shows the same old counter productive results. Each day the Pakistan military announces the # of Taliban killed. Each day in the massive refugee camps full of people fleeing the violence, Taliban allies offer food and help to those whose lives have been shattered. Add to this often unmanned Ameirican planes blast the Taliban and there is significant civilian collateral damage.

There are some signs that things will be different. For now the Pakistani clerics are supporting the government denouncing the Taliban tactics. Also, Hillary Clinton has asked for $110 in humanitarian aid. Perhaps this time the focus will be more on winning over the hearts and minds of the people instead of focusing on body counts. Only time will tell.

Netanyahu: ready to fight his political opponents, not the real enemy

Netanyahu  (Photo Google images)

Israel/Palestine

This is a minefield whenever its brought up.  So let’s take Obama’s Notre Dame advice and look for some common ground. A recently conducted poll of Palestinians and Israeli contained the following results.

 

  • 70% of the Palestinians and 65% if the Israeli’s wanted Obama involved in the peace process.
  • 59% of the Israeli’s think Obama is trustworthy  vs. 31% think Bibi Netanyahu (Israel’s PM) is trustworthy 

 

The Bottom Line here is the USA/Obama should get more involved in the peace process. If this situation is allowed to fester another war is inevitable, perhaps within a year.

 Avaaza (Voice) is a multi national group of 3 million members that is trying to get Obama more involved in the peace process. Check  out Avaaza.org. and their add.  Another way, if Avaaza is not your cup of tea, is obviously to directly contact Obama and let him know how you feel.


STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.34% down
NASDQ +0.13% up
S&P500 -0.17% down
Russell2000 -0.31% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Markets basically went nowhere and Volume remained light.

In one sense this is bullish – we held onto Monday’s big gains. However, volume has been weak and well below average for the last 4 trading sessions.  Since volume is the chief confirmation factor of a price move, we simply have no confirmation of the price move.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) moved lower yesterday -2.03 in light, but increased volume. The chart (see side of blog) shows light volume for the last 7 days. The XLF has entered a rangebound pattern between 11+ and 13+. Yesterday’s close was 12.04. The downside volume has been greater than the upside volume. This gives a little of the mojo to the bears.  A breakout from this range (@11+ to @13+) will determine the overall markets next move.

Market’s Major Mantra - Again – If Shadow Banks go up – so will stocks. If Shadow banks go down so will stocks” 

WTIC - Oil prices closed at $60.10. Up +0.86%. Prices had established a range between $54 and $60. We are sitting directly at a major resistance level for oil.  

HIgher oil prices have two sides. Higher prices for oil usually means investors think the economic picture is getting better. Higher oil prices means everyone pays more for gasoline.

BDI - The Baltic Dry Index that measures world trade  broke through resistance last week and is at a new 6 month high. The BDI broke through a major resistance early last week and rose another +1.5% yesterday. Repeat - World trade is critical, because if protectionism/nationalism between countries grows over trade the recovery is doomed. Very Bullish indicator for world economics and stocks

Reading this weeks tea leaves - Our primary forecasting tool – Volume – is not clear, so let’s use our secondary indicators -  

Markets moved higher on good news (India) and the BDI give us a short term bullish bias.  Resistance level of 13.08 on XFL is the breakout area to watch. Any move above this is very positive for bulls. Another important breakout level is 930 on the benchmark S&P 500. Right now the bulls have the football.


Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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May 8, 2009

Market Updates – Swine Flu kisses

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

WHAT’S UP? – Let’s take a day off from bashing, thrashing and smashing politics & economics. Looking at the lighter side – Swine Flu kisses; Obama and bankers; Obama changes middle name; Late night  comedians on politics; and how I created the Iraq war.

Is Swine Flu transmitted by Oinkers? 

No – So kids, find a pig & lick, lick, lick 

Barack Obama in a private meeting with bankers – “my administration is the only thing standing between you and pitch forks.” (Fortune magazine pg.64)

The Co – Star of the New Star Trek Movie

A&E

Salon composite/AP Photo

Barak “Spock” Obama

———

From Late Night TV – About the replacement of a new Supreme Court Justice. (from About.com:Political Humor)

“A vacancy on the Supreme Court. This is something we haven’t seen in a while. Let’s just hope the president is better at picking a justice than the justices were at picking a president.” –Jay Leno

“They say President Obama will most likely pick a woman. And I think that’s probably true, because today, Clarence Thomas was seen renting porn.” –Bill Maher

“Barack Obama may choose Hillary Clinton as Souter’s replacement. So the big question now is, well, can she make the transition from pantsuits to robes.” –David Letterman

——— 

Just ask my kids and Grandchildren – Everything I say is absolutely true.

The one time I ran into Cheney and Bush was in the 2000 campaign.  They were planning Iraq war. Bush turned to me and said,  ”We plan to kill millions of Muslim’s and one sculptor.” Being a sculptor I asked why kill a sculptor? Cheney turned to Bush and said,  ”See I told you liberals wouldn’t care about the Muslims.”

———

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -1.20% up
NASDQ -2.44% up
S&P500 -1.32% up
Russell2000 -2.41% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Major markets retreated in huge volume. What Wall Street calls a “distribution” day. A significant loss in increased above average volume. = Bear’s dance.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) fell -2.88% in increased, above average volume.

Monthly Jobs Report – (breaking news 8;30 EST) -539,000 jobs is bad but below expectations. Rate now up to -8.9%. from 8.5%. Last month revised down a bit. (699,000 to 663,000)

Best spin – third month in a row job loss declined and smallest loss since Oct.. Better than expected news good for stocks

Stress Test

The big news is the announcement of the ”Stress Test” on 19 biggest Shadow Banks. You can read about some analysis here (NYT) & here (Tim Geithner) here.(Simon Johnson)  Obviously, I’d pick Simon Johnson’s to read.

What’s good is bad - The stress test basically mandates that banks have a certain amount of capital on hand. This is good because it keeps them from being over leveraged. However, as banks raise the capital to meet this quasi mandate they will have a difficult time loaning out $ because loans are liabilities.

10 of the 19 big Shadow banks were found to be a total of $75 billion short. Why it’s easy to be skeptical of this number is the introduction of “mark to market” accounting and the fact that when relatively smaller Lehman Brothers went belly up they had @ $400 billion in over leveraged debt.

Bottom Line – Wall Street investors have accepted these numbers and bullish for stocks.

——–

Repeat - All  Investor 411 positions (except GLD) are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by a wide margin. See Positions.

RepeatThe $64 Trillion dollar question - We have rapidly created an incredibly massive subsidy system for America’s Shadow Institutions – How do we disconnect from these wealthy welfare recipients?


Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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May 7, 2009

Market Updates – Top Lists

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP? – 5 Top Lists – #1 foreign crisis: top 19 Financials & the Stress test; Top 25 Subprime Lenders; Top Renewable Energy Resources; Top guy back in the fight; The $64 Million,Billion, or Trillion dollar question

   Top of the List of Foreign Problems

Nuclear armed Pakistan is the # 1 Foreign policy problem today.  This whole area of the world has deteriorated as the USA fiddled and diddled in Iraq for 7 years. Yesterday’s NYT editorial.

 

        Stress Test on Top 19 Financials

What has turned into little more than a PR event for the Shadow Banks and our government will be announced today. We’ve given them Shadows trillions, the banks can mark to market any assets, and history suggest every time we rate this crisis the reality is worse. The NYT has 6 analysts debate, including Simon Johnson

        The Top 25 Subprime Lenders

Photos – Tweeter.com

Here’s the list from BusinessWeek of the top 25 Subprime leanders. Countrywide is #1. Is your bank there?

 

See full size image     Top 10 Renewable Energy Resources

Photo timesunion.com

A list of the top 10 Renewable Energy Resources from Listverse

See full size image Top Guy You Want To See Back Fighting

He’s back, Eliot Spitzer, Former NY governor and Wall Street fighter, who had trouble with hookers is back on the air. This is the kind of tough guy who is unafraid of going after Wall Street. He along with our #1 hope for justice  Elizabeth Warren (see past updates) are on  CNBC this AM. Obviously the financial channel has felt the heat of criticism (Jon Stewart etc) and is now at least letting the other side be heard. Also Simon Johnson & Arianna Huffington are guests this AM.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.21% up
NASDQ +0.28% up
S&P500 +1.74% up
Russell2000 +2.54% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Now starting to worry that we are going up too far too fast.  Another significant rally in increased above average volume. NASDQ rally was minor. We are in the middle of a bullish stampede. Enjoy for now, but remember the bulls can get stampeded off a cliff. 

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) continued its breakout move +7.96% Usually,you buy the rumor and sell the news.  In this case the announcement of the Stress Test is the news. Expect a correction.

All other Investor 411 positions (except GLD) are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by a wide margin. See Positions.

The $64 Trillion dollar question – We have rapidly created an incrediblymassive subsidy system for America’s Shadow Institutions – How do we disconnect from these wealthy welfare recipients.

NB – Dow member GM is dong a reverse 100 to 1 stock split. Because of the way the Dow is computed GM will go from last to first of the 30 Dow stocks. This is going to mess things up. Investors411 will focus on benchmark S&P 500.


Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !


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May 6, 2009

Market Updates – The Upcoming War

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP? - The Upcoming War – Shadow banks vs. the ordinary American Taxpayers: We are loosing; Simon Johnson (again) and “The Quit Coup;” Privatizing gains and socializing risk; The major issues between the shadow banks and us. Your questions on investing – When to invest & the long term outlook.

 

Battle of Stalingrad from Wikipedia

The Upcomming War

This is the war between the between the shadow banks and you the ordinary taxpayer.  

  • Will we continue to operate a system where shadow instutions privatize the gains and you socialize the losses?
  • Will big banking, insurance, conglomerates continue to be too big to fail?
  • Will this oligarchy continue to control Washington?  
  • Will their be a return to regulations?
Investor’s 411 has over the last few month described the sides and consequences in this war.

Still the best article out there describing how the shadow banks are winning  The Quiet Coup comes from Simon Johnson (former head of IMF and MIT prof)

Your Questions

 Popeye raises some interesting questions in comments section of blog.

  •  Be more specific as to when to invest - The Positions section of the blog carries some specific recommendations. However I simply do not have the time to watch stocks and exactly determine when a “Buy the Dip” opportunity exactly occurs.  Also, each of you is a different kind of investor/trader. What you do depends on your level of risk.
  • What about the long term? – Unless we radically change the shadow institutions privatizing gains and you socializing losses, the American economy as we know it is doomed to oblivion. What will emerge is a wealthy oligarchy and a poorer underclass. Far more bullish on some foreign economies that are building their middle classes than America’s that is diminishing its middle class. See Overview section of blog. Hope Obama can change this. (See above – The Upcoming war) More on this later.
  • I try to change the Positions section each weekend. The Changes are in plum. Check it out. I do realize some of this can be unclear to less sophisticated investors/traders. So either make a comment on the blog or privately send me email. 

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.19% down
NASDQ -0.54% flat
S&P500 -0.38% down
Russell2000 -0.84% -

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Technicals & Fundamentals

Major markets held onto most of their gains from the “Wowie Zowie” rally as volume dropped a bit. Consolidation after a major rally is bullish for equities. As long as we hold onto at least 50% of Friday & Monday’s gains the bulls are in charge of short term momentum.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks )Broke out of its consolidation pattern Monday and fell  -1,45% in decreased volume yesterday.  Again it looks like consolidation after a big move higher. 

Reading the tea leaves - [Longer term]  As stated in Strategy section (click on Strategy at top of blog – mostly written at the start of 2009) Dow 8000 is basically the cut off line. Below 8,000 slowly adding to positions or “nibbling” was suggested.  The Dow is now at 8,410.  

Therefore, Longer term investors should be more cautious about buying the dips. The Dow unlike the benchmark S&P 500 has not yet reached its yearly high at around 9,000. It is the trailing index.  It does have some wiggle room to move higher.

Markets are dynamic and right now Dow 9000 is probably going to be the new standard instead of 8000.  The 8000 was the standard at the beginning of the year.

It  looks like the Dow (30 major companies) will get dragged along higher by the other 3 major indexes. Short term momentum is still clearly  with the bulls. 9000 is not impossible and neither is 9654 (the November 2008 high). However -

Bottom Line – The rapidity of the bulls momentum will probably slow the higher we go.  Shadow banks  and China are still leading the bulls.  

At some point in time this year the major WAR between shadow banks and  the taxpayers over regulating financials and their size will happen. This in the short term will negatively impact stocks and in the long term impact the viability of our economy. (See above) Lots of the negatives in America’s economy are still growing.

Example – Right now according to WSJ 20% of homeowners have bigger mortgages  than the home are worth

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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May 5, 2009

Market Updates – A Wowie Zowie rally

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP – China leading world out of recession; Huge stimulus and Chinese banks loan package has dramatic positive short term impact on stocks; Shadow banks are winning in their tug of ear with Obama’s administration: Stress test results; Investors411 recommended positions have possibly best day ever!

 

-

China

Chinese Banks are lending money - big time They were not nearly as over leveraged as American shadow banks and China. Their stimulus which is bigger per capita than the USA’s is also helping turning the Chinese economy. A second stimulus package is projected soon. Some outstanding growth stats announced yesterday. Some details on China’s stock’s explosion higher yesterday here and here

For more see 4/16 Investors411 blog on China or (recommended) Positions section of blog

Bottom Line – China is leading the rest of the world out of the recession. In the long run this much stimulus is going to be inflationary.

Shadow Banks

There’s the good, the bad and the ugly about shadow banks. But the the good is the fact that they are leadings stocks higher, It seems in the tug of war between increased governance  by our government and allowing US banks to continue to move in the shadows is moving in one direction –  the Shadow’s are winning, NYT story.

Stress Test

Shadow bank, Wells Fargo was thought to be one of the banks that failed the government’s “Stress Test” and it moves up +24% on the stock market.  Talk about moving higher on bad news = great for stocks.

“The U.S. is expected to direct about 10 of the 19 banks undergoing government stress tests to boost their capital, according to several people familiar with the matter”    Full WSJ story

 

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Why Tom Friedman is Wrong (part 2)

Sorry Started this when my server/modem went crazy on me last Thursday. See his editorial “A Tortuous Compromise.” in which he invisions a decent wesern US democracy in Iraq. 

Imagine Rush Limbaugh and the far right coming together as “brothers” with Move On and the far left. Multiply that times 10 and add a mountain full of oil money/power to fight over and you have how the Shia feel about the Sunni’s in Iraq.

What happened is the Shia (60% of the population) kicked ass in a civil war over the Sunni’s (20% of the population and Saddam’s group) Add to this years/decades of mass killings. This is almost as bad as imagining Hamas and Israel coming together in one democratic love fest. 

STOCKS


 

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +2.61% up
NASDQ +2.58% up
S&P500 +3.39% up
Russell2000 +4.07% -

-

Technicals & Fundamentals

China (FXI =+8.95%) (see April 16th blog)and Financials (shadow banks) added high octane jet fuel to last week’s breakout.

S&P 500 turns positive for the year! SPX closes at 907 – First major technical resistance level at @ 940 (an old high and close to the 50 day moving average)

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks )Broke out of its consolidation pattern and rose +10.14% in increased above average volume.  Therefore, volume confirmed a huge breakout. If you’re in recommended ETF’s that do 2x & 3x what the XLF day you did spectacular. (see positions)

The XFL had been consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed  above breakout levels at 11.73 .


A Wowie Zowie Rally!

Wow! Yesterday was a fabulous day for Investor’s 411 recommended Positions.

See Positions at top of blog. Most Investors411 recommended  positions did 2 to 4+ times better than US markets. Both China and Financials are recommended ETF’s (see positions) 

Even GEX (alternative energy) was up +9.95%.  Also Brazil (EWZ) was up +5.98%.

Reading the tea leaves - Obviously, would love see stock positions hold onto their gains and not rocket higher or lower. Moving too far too fast is reason for concern. Consolidation over a few weeks is best in the long term for bulls.  

Those shorter term traders should obviously book some profits soon. Why be greedy? There should be a whole lot of traders buying the first dip today.  Let’s see what happens after that.

Caution – Don’t get all caught up in this good news. There are massive economic problems out there in the USA and many foreign countries.

  

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING !

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April 28, 2009

Market Updates – A Choo

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP – Swine flu –  Possible pandemic or over hyped media crisis?  How to protect your portfolio and Investor411 positions:

FLUSTATUEALfredoEstrella:AFP:Getty

By Alfredo Estrella/AFP/Getty Images.

Fears of Flu

Fears of a flu pandemic are sweeping the globe., The head of the World Health Organization said the flu outbreak is a “serious situation” that has a “pandemic potential”.  Already over a half dozen countries have reported cases of Swine Flu.  All corners of the globe are being impacted by this possible pandemic. Its going to get worse before it gets better.

Most major media outlets have given issued alerts on what to do. World Heath Center has raised danger level over this disease today.  

Over Hyped? – 1/2 million people die from the flu each year.  It’s too early to tell how many people in Mexico have had the flu ,but 152 have died in Mexico. If a million people had the flu then this death rate is far less consequential. No deaths are reported in other countries.

It is also the end of flu season not the beginning (Dec.) So all this may be an overhyped media crisis.

Below under Technicals and Fundamental section of stocks is how to protect your portfolio.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.64% down
NASDQ -0.88% down
S&P500 -1.01% down
Russell2000 -1.92% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

From Yesterday

“Possible FLU PANDEMIC negatively impacting markets throughout world.”

———

Major Negative Impact of FLU on Stocks

Investors411 Positions - FXI (China) and EWZ (Brazil) are going to take  a hit.

Emerging markets are far more vulnerable to a real or possible flu pandemic. Brazil already has a few people with this strain of flu. Therefore you either exit some positions of buy protection. This may be an over hyped crisis, but right now its better to be safe than sorry. Personally I’m adding some more protection.

As always – don’t make huge massive moves (all in all out) – But  both FXI and EWZ have had a great run over the last six weeks and some protection seems prudent. 

  • EEV is the Ultra Short ETF for the Emerging Markets. (2x short Emerging Markets)
  • FXP is the Ultra Short ETF for China (2x Short China)

Strongly recommend that you take profits or protect assets especially in these areas.  Longer term once these stocks hit a bottom FXI and EWZ should present a great opportunity to buy. 

Obviously related transportation, travel, and commodities (especially hogs – even though you can’t get swine flu from eating hogs) industries will take a hit and here’s an article on  companies that may benefit. From Smart Money – 10 Stocks to Watch in the  Swine Flu Crisis

Sorry  I should have been more aggressive yesterday with this warning

—————-

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose -1.62% Friday in decreased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) 

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.76. We are still close to strong resistance level at @ 11.3.  This is the resistance level all Wall Street is watching.

Fed meets today.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 27, 2009

Market Updates Torture (2)

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP? Thanks to all of you who wrote in comments and set the agenda for both SmackDown and Torture; The endemic of tortureaccountability, your comments, definition, & its cost in American lives; Shadow Banks and the Stress test;  Flu Pandemic hits stocks; Major changes at GM;  Market – Technicals & Fundamentals.

TORTURE

-

Definition of Torture

  • The Spanish Inquisition waterboarded and we called it TORTURE (Frank Rich - Link)
  • The Japanese waterboarded (WW 2) We executed those responsible and called it TORTURE (see ewanapt’s comments)
  • The vicious dictator Pol Pot(Cambodia) waterboarded and we called it TORTURE
  • The scum in North Korea waterboarded and we called it TORTURE
  • The Cheney Bush administration waterboarded and we call it ”ENHANCED INTERROGATION TECHNIQUES.’

comm_on_acc.jpg

Commission on Accountability

The endemic and acceptance of torture has dramatically altered the moral character of our nation.

Torture authorized  by the Cheney/Bush administration was not used in one singlular Jack Bauer (TV show 24) moment but instead spread throughout the world.  Authorized torture approved by the government elites – from the 84 ghost prisoners to Gitmo to Abu Ghraib to Afghanistan – flourished throughout the world. See, Andy Worthington’sTen Terrible Truths About Torture

One of the greatest outrages of our time has been the change in America’s character to accept torture. Character and moral values used to be what separated us from Chairman Mao and al Quaeda.

Please join me and others  calling for an independent non partisan commission to examine and publicly report on their findings. See-

Commission on Accountability.org 


  

Dick Cheney

The Overlooked Cost in American Lives

Our use of  Torture killed  a whole lot of Americans “The reason why foreign fighters joined al-Qa’ida in Iraq was overwhelmingly because of abuses at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib and not Islamic ideology,” says Major Matthew Alexander, who personally conducted 300 interrogations of prisoners in Iraq.”  

Torture and the “unjust” occupation/war in Iraq was the #1 recruiting tool for Islamic terrorists. who have and will kill thousands of Americans. See  ”Torture? It probably killed more Americans than 9/11″ -LINK

STOCKS


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.50% up
NASDQ +2.55% up
S&P500 +1.68% up
Russell2000 +2.60% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Mantra -Forget all about the major indexes - What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

We are in the second 1/2 of earnings season.

Possible Flu pandemic negatively impacting markets throughout world.

Major changes coming out of GM. They are dropping major lines of cars and more.(breaking)

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +2.24% Friday in increased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) 

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.94. We are moving close to strong resistance level at @ 11.3.  This is the resistance level all Wall Street is watching.

BDI -Baltic Dry (Sea) Index has rebounded. (see BDI chart on side of blog) Translation – world trade is doing better.

Reading the Tea leaves – Stocks are in a tug of war-but the trend looks up. Here’s a CNBC article that agrees with this outlook. Technically we are consolidating, but there has been more upside days in big volume than downside days in big volume. Fundamentally the big event is the May 4th “Stress Test” announcement. Here some more info on the Stress Test.

Fearless Forecast.-  It’s hard to see the FLX break out above the 11.3 resistance level before the “Stress Test” on the shadow banks becomes public. But, at the rate the current administration is caving into the big banks a breakout seems likely after 5/4

 

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 22, 2009

Market Updates – Smack Down

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

IntroducingSmack Down- A top ten list of  ”toxic” politician’s personalities, groups,  or even ex girl/boy friends that deserve to have a can of whoop ass opened on them; Kissing the Pope’s ring – another Republican apologizes; Have you puked yet? – Roller Coster stock markets; &  Shadow Banks Rule Wall Street.

 

The Hulk from Marvel comics – by Brian Hitch (source Wikipedia)

                     SMACK DOWN

Investors411 has gone to great expense to hire The Hulk to Smack Down anyone or group YOU think deserves to be knocked off his/her pedestal.

Just because this blog focuses on economic trends doesn’t mean you have to. Send your nomination(s) to the comments section of the blog. 

 If you can’t find the comments link at the bottom of this post go to top right of blog and click on “Subscribe to RSS.” A list of previous post will come up and click on one blue headline. An old post will come up and scroll down to comments section. (sorry my trusty tech is still working out the bugs) 

Alan Greenspan – The Jolly Green Giant -(my choice) This guy was put so high on a financial pedestal that it reached up into the clouds. He, more so than anyone else, could have stopped the greedy “free market” shadow banks and others.

Alan Greenspan

The SMACK DOWN LIST

#1 Alan Greenspan

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

 

                   Kissing The Pope’s  Ring

Another Republican Representative who dared to call the leader of the Republican Party, Rush Limbaugh, something other than his “His Holiness” has genuflected and apologized. All these nabobs of negativism like Limbaugh do is stand and throw stones. The once great Republicans (Party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt etc.) has been reduced to is labeling these hate monger’s as “a great leader of the conservative movement.”

STOCKS

 

 


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.63% flat
NASDQ +2.22% down
S&P500 +2.13% down
Russell2000 +3.88% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Forget all about the major indexes – What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

Yesterday Tim Geithner played dodge ball in front of Elizabeth Waren’s TARP Oversight Committee. This gave shadow banks hope that all the profits would be privatized and the risk socialized (payed for by taxpayers)

Yesterday was a Geithner rally.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +7.40% in increased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) This leading index is the one to watch.

Short Term Outlook - Second technical chink in the bulls armor appeared Monday – another big volume sell off.  Volume, the #1 confirmation factor of stock price moves. But Tuesday’s bigger volume (for FLX) means we are one again going up on the roller coaster and gives hopes to bulls.

Too early to make a call on which way this may break, but short term traders should pay attention. The Danger signs to watch for - more big price/volume decline  and/or stocks moving lower on no news or good news.

Still bullish in the short term. But think in the longer term, say Sept/Oct (or sooner) – a test of lows could happen.

For tradersIf you really want to gamble – The ETF’s that do 3x what the shadow banks do long – FAS and 3X what financials do short FAZ. This is for those of you who have experience trading covered calls.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 20, 2009

Market Updates – Bo “Hussein” Obama

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP – Bo “Hussein” Obama; Shadow Banks – whose been naughty and whose been nice; Rush Limbaugh = killing cops?!; The only thing standing between shadow banks and pitchforks; Elizabeth Warren under attack; Job loss map; YOUR comments

banks.gif

photo from Washington Note

The Shadow Banks

* Why are community banks paying for the sins of the big shadow banks? Good question – Many were not up to their necks in toxic assets. – MSNBC asks

*Shadow Banks – Whose taken our $. Whose been naughty (hoarding $) and whose been nice (making loans to consumers and companies to get the economy moving again)

  • The Good – State Street Bank
  • The Bad – Citigroup
  • The Ugly – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (get out the pitchforks!)
  • The chart from WSJ

* ” [Obama administration] is the only thing between you and the pitchforks.” - Barack to shadow bankers.  The Prez & his positions in Fortune magazine

Pittsburgh Police officers attend a memorial service Thursday, ...

Pittsburgh Cops – photo AP

The Right Wing and Killing Cops

For two weeks the controversy has raged over the  right wing wacko’s and those that encourage them. The latest right wing killer/terrorist  was afraid “Obama would limit his guns rights.” This “gun loving maniac” ambushed three Pittsburgh Cops. Story here

You’ve seen it before from abortion clinics to Columbine (10th anniversary of school killings yesterday)

Each day the right wing hate machine stokes the fires inside these killers and fights any curbs on weapons buying.  Naming names of some of those who even want “Obama to fail.” The problem is they dominate and speak for the once great Republican Party.

  • Rush Limbaugh
  • Glenn Beck
  • Michael Savage
  • Bill O’Reilly
  • Sean Hannity

 

Elizabeth Warren is interviewed.

AP Photo

The Shadow Bankers Hit Elizabeth 

Last Friday’s Post featured  TARP Oversight Chair, Elizabeth Warren.  Most likely she’s your greatest hope for some justice when it comes to the shadow banking system. Already, the “Right” Wing is going after her. Politico’s headline story  (Politico is a top & respected political blog)

——–

Steal trillions, hoard your cash, kill cops, give guns to right wing wacko’s, hope Obama fails, attack Elizabeth, but go after the President’s dog and progressive’s will do more than waterboard in retaliation.


Don’t you dare label him Bo “Hussein” Obama

Job Loss Map

Slate has produced a amazing interactive monthly map of where the jobs have been lost. Check out the job loss growth in your area.

Two new Comments Posted by Bob Sadinsky

Check out the passionate remarks on right side of blog. Do you agree?

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

STOCKS


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.07% up
NASDQ +0.16% up
S&P500 +0.50% up
Russell2000 +1.16% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Major US stock markets inched out a small rally led by shadow banks.

Earnings reports explode this week as many companies step up to the line with results and forecasts.  Watch technology -NASDQ

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +1.18% in increased, volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) This leading index is the one to watch.

Short Term Outlook - a wee bit more positive – First technical chink in the bulls armor appeared Tuesday.’s big volume sell off.  Volume, the #1 confirmation factor rose as stocks inched higher on Friday . 

Too early to make a call on which way this may break, but short term traders should pay attention. The Danger signs to watch for - another big price/volume decline  and/or stocks moving lower on no news or good news.

Still bullish in the short term. But think in the longer term, say Sept/Oct (or sooner) – a test of lows could happen. 

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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