Chicken Little getting ready – From the Disney Movie

Is the Economic Sky Falling?

There’s some pretty positive results from economic measures taken so far. Employment figures have turned, stocks have rocketed higher and we avoided a second depression. But there are those that see things getting a whole lot worse rapidly.

Here’s a relative credible analyst Chris Martenson who believes the economic meltdown is upon us and how to prepare for it. He has lots of valid points, but I don’t share his degree of severity

Yankee Bob Is Back

In the comments section there’s a well thought out debate on Libya.  But just before baseball season,  Yankee Bob launches another editorial.

You can read Bob’s editorial and others in yesterday’s comment section (scroll down) An excerpt and a suggested link below.

“Libya is important but not nearly as much as the the Rights Jihad against worker rights and what is unfolding at Fukeshima.”
Yankee Bob
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03…

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Chart above from the St. Louis fed itself shows the amount of liquidity (BASE ) that has been injected into the US economy. That’s over +2.4 Trillion
• With a growing supply of money like this, and zero % interest rates its almost inevitable that US stocks grow in value. (reasons for this listed in past Investors411 for many moons)
• Almost every credible technical analyst has called for a major correction weeks and months ago.  This increase in money supply has trumped their predictions and trumped some major black swan events. Yes, everything is bubblicious and the longer it stays that way the bigger the pop at the end.
• Take Advantage of This While it Last. Fed POMO is over June 30th and who knows if we will have another. It’s possible at some stage that investors/hedge funds/brokerage houses will front run this number and sell.
• The major sign for a bubble bursting would be the dollar collapsing or your typical high volume climax run.
• Here’s a relative credible analyst (above) Chris Martenson who believes the economic meltdown is upon us and how to prepare for it. He has lots of valid points, but I don’t share his degree of severity.
• Oh yea, another low volume rally market manipulated rally yesterday.  Bad news – Poor consumer sentiment was the spark for a rally.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose a wee bit +0.16. Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but it started  a four day bull run that’s stalled out over the last two days.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +25.34. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. = Neutral/ Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

MO is telling us that we are getting close to an  overbought resistance area (+30). However the dollar is the perhaps the key metric to watch. Falling dollar =rising US stocks.

What to watch today – Market movers

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Up 3% yesterday on verge of breakout. A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today, but still too far above its 50 day moving average to buy.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s (Paul is at an investment seminar this week) always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Yankee Bob - just one week before the baseball season starts and Bob is back with an editorial on Nuclear Power in today’s comments section. Here’s an excerpt -

“…First rule of poker or gaming theory is never bet more then you are prepared to lose. Who paces bets on nuclear energy generation? Not the people.  Corporations looking for profit place the bets…”

Hint  - The young Red Sox’s fan pictured above is NOT making a comment on Yankee Bob’s editorial, but on a baseball team.

Investor In Wonderland – Stock market editorial below in Reading The Tea Leaves Section.

Radiation In Japan – Two other prefectures next to Tokyo have the glow in the dark radiated water. (so maybe it doesn’t glow, but I sure folks wish radiated water did glow) No “harmfull” levels in Tokyo today – or so we are told by those oh so reliable officials. Steam from all 4 reactors today. 1st time from reactor #1. This from helicopter crew with might big zoom lens 30 kilometers away from nuke plant.

Hacker Collective/Anonymous - Out with proclamation – These folks exposed The Chamber of Commerce’s hidden smear tactics against opponents and BAC’s hidden manipulations.

“getting our National Rights and dreams back….To effectively reform the system that has enslaved us, we must consider the advice and example of those who have preceded us. Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and JFK are good places to start. All took fierce positions against central banking, government corruption and corporate power… The time has come for us to unite, the time has come for us to stand up and fight. ”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally. Fed POMO buying ended at 11:00AM EST and that’s when US stocks started to rally
• 2 days of Fed buying = $15 billion Sure helps stocks to have a tsunami of liquidity behind the trading desks of Goldman Sachs and other shadow institutions/primary Fed dealers.
• BAC (Bank of America) was NOT allowed to issue a dividend. Our cover up specialists, oops excuse me – government regulators said no dividend for BAC, they didn’t pass the stress test, but its all opaque because no numbers were published and would you trust the numbers of people who post government job could be to work for financials they regulate.
• New home sales dipped 17% – another horrible statistic in housing. XHB – The ETF for homebuilders rallied on the news – Really I’m not kidding.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.75% One day does not change the pattern. Clear bearish longer term pattern still in place. For stocks = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -0.81 Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Welcome to the world of liquidity driven Shadow & Central Bank manipulated markets. Not Alice in Wonderland, but Investor in Wonderland.

The Bad news

• Housing down 17%
• Huge Bank fails stress test.
• Oil Prices high and moving higher
• The dollar up significantly
• Radiated water in a city of 13 million people
• Another oil war looks like a protracted stalemate.
• Europe debt crisis grows as Portugal’s government collapses on a no confidence vote

So what does our stock market do – A RALLY

There is a perverse logic to this bad news is fodder for a rally.  The more bad news there is the more Central Banks (especially the USA) around the world print money or institute quantitative easing. This is all leading to one big bubble bursting down the road, but for now we have all leaned to balance on the top of that ever expanding bubble.

From Yesterday on Japan’s growing Nuclear problems –  Investors or media in the USA may not pick up on this story immediately, but it sure looks like it has major long term consequences that will impact Japan’s GDP.

At least Japan’s markets were actually DOWN a bit on bad news. But just a bit because Japan, just like the USA is going to print gobs of  TOILET PAPER (aka money)  to pay off their debt.

Short Term Bottom Line – So in honor of baseball season in just one week – Put Your Rally Caps on – This is a Bubblicious Wonderland,

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

UWM - – Sell order still in at 43. 93 (1% above what i was bought for) which will close entire position.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. – approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. - Shouda Woulda Coulda – Up +3.73% two days ago - Dipped yesterday, but ended up confirming or holding onto gains. Strong consideration to buy any dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Buy the dip

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Another day or two like yesterday and the Long Term Outlook goes back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

Japan Tsunami/Earthquake video

If you haven’t seen the horrific tsunami/earthquake video it yet - LINK

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Financial/Fed Tsunami of Liquidity

Chart by John Lohman in larger form -LINK

Some complex remarks and charts - Translation – the positive impact the Fed POMO has on US stocks and worries over long term damaging effects on US economy

Yankee Bob is Back, But Where’s Obama?

Yankee Bob is back with another editorial in the comments section of the blog. Many of you have replied. Others commented on stocks with some valuable investment concepts. See Bob’s – “Where’s Obama” (scroll down for this and all other comments from yesterday)

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• A major meltdown in increased volume. For Months increased volume on down days and light volume on up days was an established pattern, because of the liquidity tsunami.
• For so many months the Fed has been able to manipulate stocks higher in light volume through QE2. Nothing could shake this pattern until we started having oil price over $100 a barrel
• A second important fundamental was the realization that the Fed POMO program (QE2) ends June 30th and people like Bond King Bill Gross front running this withdrawal of funds from Treasuries.
• Is the goose that lays those golden manipulated stock market eggs (low volume rallies) cooked? – See below for answer?
• Today is a confirmation day for yesterday’s move.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar has changed direction. Up  a significant +0.72 % yesterday. Chart for last three weeks still clearly bearish for dollar.   Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index and its trumping the dollar see below For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -44.59 Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. This was broken yesterday.  The short term  MO Stocks outlook = Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

From Earlier this week - Today’s the big day - For three months the bulls have built a strong support level at -30 on the MO. Each time it has been approached it has held. We are just 2 points away. The bears have a big battering ram - oil prices over $100+ for an extended period of time.  The bears battering ram worked and the Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger warning, unfortunately has come true. The “magic” of the -30 level on the MO has evaporated and support levels have fallen.

Short Term – The impact of the Japan quake/tsunami (see video at link), no Fed POMO today, Our top spy says Ka Daffy will win. and “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arab all have potential negative impact today.

Long term – We still have 3+ month of QE2 left. If it looks like 100+ dollar oil and other factors are creating a possible double dip recession in investors minds.  Get ready for a bubble building QE3. Any announcement that leans this way is going to pump stocks.

Perhaps the end result is going to be the Fed will have to keep buying treasuries to stabilize US economy. Stocks should again benefit from this, but at best it looks like a Japanese type of recovery in the USA economically. (lots more later) Big dangers of inflation & deflation. with Fed monetizing so much debt.

Special Note - Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL at long as oil prices keep rising above $100+. or markets confirm yesterday’s fall.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Took a hit yesterday as it approached former high.

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Positions

May buy the dip near of the day

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver SLV and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Special Note - Considering changing the Long Term Outlook to NEUTRAL -if oil prices remain above $100+ a barrel for a significant amount of time and/or keep rising.

Oct 14th Investors411 Photo

Baby Bull Grows UP

Investors411 called this rally over a month ago

Lead by Emerging Market countries which broke out to new yearly highs  months ago,  US stocks , with the help of a falling dollar, TARP loans, stimulus money and quantitative easing (parts 1 &2) have developed the rally.  The major US indexes are within a few percentage point of reaching yearly highs.

Volume, which has long been AWOL in stocks has returned for the last two days. Not overwhelming volume, but enough to be encouraged.

Basically, Investors worldwide are starting to believe the globalized economic trends that existed previous to the 2008 meltdown are back in play. The US has moved higher like it did after the meltdown on cash injected into the economy. The Fed Chair Bernanke has promised more (See past blogs on QE 2)

Our baby bull has grown  up.

Foreclosures, Bubbles & Problems

Major Shadow Banks were down @ 4 to 5% yesterday on new foreclosure problems.

Once again, if you leave these crooks liars frauds unregulated and create no limiting laws they will screw YOU to the wall.  Now thousands of lawsuits are going to be brought by AG’s from 50 states because of an improper foreclosure system.

Yankee Bob says it best in the comments section “They are acting in their own selfish interests against the good of the public and they are profiting well from it.”

Obviously, we haven’t fixed the problems that caused the 2008 meltdown. If you think shadow financial culture has changed – there’s a bridge in Brooklyn I have for sale.

Compared with all the first world countries, we break more economic bubbles, have an enormously higher crime rate, are far more innovative, and provide far less for the public good.

American’s are in the NOW. We have become a nation of what can you do for me. Our former greatness was in the words of visionary President John F. Kennedy – “Ask not what your contry can do for you, but what you could do for your country.” That vision that inspired America to greatness and unity has changed.

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Note – Will post some comments on stock bubbles today

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Volume is returning to US markets. Not massive amounts but, the last two days have seen a clear increase – Bullish sign.

US markets rose into the close. Sure Looks like some entities got word of outstanding MSFT & AMD earnings results

Shadow Banks – Many of the major shadow banks took big hits yesterday on the foreclosure mess. BAC (Bank of America) down -5.19%. Yet overall stocks held up well. Another bullish sign.

However,  if Shadow Banks fall again today, that would be confirmation of yesterday fall.

• Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell -o.55% yesterday. The inverse correlation is not always perfect. But yesterdays fall gives bull more amo for today.  Overall trend of falling dollar trend for US stocks is = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries] Rose  +0.76% yesterday An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall. A very slight stutter and now moving up. Trend  = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to +15.56. Momentum is with the stock bulls but location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Lots of room (MO)and reasons (BDI, USD, Earnings Reports, volume) to move higher.

Interesting that only a slight decline sent the MO down further than a previous day’s rally sending it higher.

“Overall – the same bullish pattern dominates.” Mantra foe week

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

• EWS (Singapore)
• USO (price of oil/commodity).
• SSO (2x what S&P does)
• TYH (3x tech stocks)

The obvious strategy with SSO & TYH is that in a bull run they are going to clobber the benchmark S&P 500.

On dips feel comfortable adding of the ETF’s in POSITION section. Also adding to SSO & TYH.

It would take probably a massive 400 point move in Dow today to reach overbought levels. Highly highly unlikely.

Check out Paul R’s always enlightening updates on individual stocks and sectors in the comments sections.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Photo from Politico of all white Tea Party activists – Queston should the USA have the same level of tolerance as Saudi Arabia or are we better than that?

Your Comments

Mainstream media (CNN & others)has chosen to give priority to right wing groups that believe we should ban all  mosques in the USA. Yankee Bob has returned to the comments section with a rebuttal -

“Exactly right!

Fear is the Mind Killer! Prejudice is born of ignorance! We fear that which we do not know or understand! Enlightenment is much harder to attain. It’s easy to be afraid of what you don’t know or understand. That’s easy. Seeking the truth is hard!

Think of what prejudice has cost the world. How many Genocides? How many victims of Genocides, Enslavements, Victims of Prejudice  were denied their human rights. What does that mean as a social cost? Suppose Einstein had been murdered  in  a Pogrom before he gave the world his Theories. Suppose he had been denied his eduction because of a quota on student seats for Jews! How many potential Einstein’s were lost at Auswitz? Suppose Drs. Salk were denied becoming Drs because they were Jewish! The Dr that developed the procedure for blood transfusions that has saved the lives of countless millions,died after being in a car crash and was denied a transfusion because he was Black! What if he was in that crash before he developed his discovery. We have lost so much as a society because of the fear that ignorance inspires!”

Yankee Bob

JS has a lot more valuable information on covered calls in the comments section. Also Dave & Jim J (bonds) have some added information Kudos to JS for initiating and leading the discussion on an alternative method of investment

If you don’t watch the comments section each day your missing out on some of the best investment ideas and most passionate editorials.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Paul R in the comments section has found a great source describing the BB/HFT traders and consequences of what they do.

Weak volume rally is typical US for the BB/HFT.  Although volume did pick up a bit as short positions scrambled to cover. Weaker dollar & rally abroad played a part in this.

NB – The US markets are , for the most part are being engineered by the BB/HFT and now the Fed has taken an even more direct role. Investors411 has beat the drum over the BB/HFT’s, so lets do the FED.

The FED – It was perhaps no accident markets moved higher when the Fed at 10:15 AM EST yesterday opened its window to start to buy Treasuries. Lower treasury rates pushes investors seeking higher yields into stocks. More important Zerohedge.com does a good job describing what happens when cash is given to potential traders. Future auction that inject cash to major traders will occur 8/19,24,26 & 9/1. So stocks should have an artificial boost on those days. At Zerohedge read anything with symbol POMO – Permanent Open Market Operation.

Bottom Line - You’re not getting the Fed’s money and we could see a little juice added to stock on the above dates. Plus the day before traders may rally in anticipation of new cash.

Cash rich companies are also buying back shares – they certainly are NOT hiring American workers.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD)  [Anything price move over +/- 0.50 is significant] The dollar fell -0.38% yesterday. For stocks = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade/proxie for China & emerging markets] Rally +1.09% yesterday. Has broken up through 50 day moving average. Overall trend still = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +3.14 = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

Emerging markets due for a consolidation after a nice 3/4 day run. MO in neural and the FED injections of cash through 9/1 should keep the nasty Hindenberg Omen at bay at least for a while.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions – EWZ & EWS

Each time we have a MO below 40 and a dip, I plan to buy.  First nibbles and the lower we go the more riskier ETF’s.

Same strategy – Will sell 1/2 ETF at @3 to 5% gain/loss and let the rest ride till the MO moves higher. Sold 1/2 of EWZ at 70.88 for @ +3% gain. Both EWZ & EWS opened and closed near the same levels. In the language of technical analysis this usually means at least a short term trend reversal.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Obama, Obama, Obama

• The Obama administration is responsible for us still being in Afghanistan & Iraq. He is the commander in chief (see yesterday’s Investors411).
• His administration is also responsible for the weak financial reform coming out of congress. All Obama had to do it to throw strong vocal support Kafman/Brown, Volker amendment, Lincoln’s derivative bill for them to pass.
• BP, is responsible for the spill, as are a decade of lax rules and enforcers. But its long past time Obama, the commander in chief, did more than talk tough and blame BP. Yankee Bob has editorial on how expensive fossil fuels really are.

Solutions, Solution, Solutions

• John Sovjani in comments sections comes up with some innovative fiscal solutions in comments section of blog A gas tax and legalizing/taxing pot are among his choices.
• Bob Sadinski’s (AKA Yankee Bob) editorial focus is to change more rapidly to alternative energy because of the real environmental costs of fossil fuels. (see link above)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks roared out of the gate, but fell in the PM as those huge institutions with those giant super computers all sold.  The translation here is – the bulk of all trading is being made by institutions with complex trading algorithm. They take hold of US markets, usually after 2:00PM and determine direction. That direction was down into close = Bearish

Somehow the rumor/news got out that China was considering taking $ out of the Euro. The announcement  was an absolutely dumb move if you’re the Chinese and are doing this. Probably some large entity that is short the Euro or long the dollar created or contributed to this. Markets still very sensitive to negative European news. China has denied this. = Bearish

The McClellan Oscillator sent out a strong bullish signal yesterday. From Investopedia – “Conversely, when a bear market is still declining, but a smaller amount of stocks are declining, an end to the bear market may be near” Yesterday the financial channels (Bloomberg & CNBC reported a lack of breath and volume behind the PM decline)= Bullish

We’ve not had a bear market, but @ a 13% correction. One technical sign that it is coming to an end does NOT make it so. But the MO has been below 60 for a long time and due for a technical correction or a short run higher.

Fundamentals haven’t changed! But we are long overdue for the McClellan Oscillator to move above -60. A technical bounce.

Futures are up in US and European markets higher. = Bullish

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose to -64.99. [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is still OVERSOLD territory, but we are now out of WAY oversold territory. How the MO works. Yesterday was one of those strange days where the markets went lower but MO went up.= Bullish.
• US Dollar –  The dollar rose  a significant +0.62% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. This broke its major resistance level and the dollar is now trading at year + long high. Foe stocks (especially US stocks) =  Bearish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Sold last 1/2 of SDS at 35.50 near market close. There was a +5% gain on 1/2 and a 0% gain on 1/2.

Traders – Bought 1% IMAX at 16.70 & DGIT at 42.26 near market close. Reasoning – These stocks were rallying into the close, markets were falling, Monitor (see comments section of blog announced DGIT and SNDK had made new year long highs ) and these two stocks are clearly out performing well over 98% of the market even though they did not hold onto their breakouts. DGIT & IMAX rallied into close as markets fell.

Still long 2%IMAX, 1% ESRX, 2% DGIT and 2% VCI.

I hope IMAX, ESRX DGIT & VCI turn into long term gains, but fundamentally I seriously doubt it. If lucky will take profits (sell 1/2) on any gain of @5% with DGIT. Also will sell 1/2 VCI (dropped over 4% yesterday – should have sold 1/2 when stock was up over 5%) & IMAX in major rally.

Still waiting for dip to buy EUO. If markets rally strongly today.

Traders Investors411 also bought FAS at open and sold it when it fell back to price it was bought for. (actually lost less than 0.4%)  Caution this is a very volatile (3X financials) stock.

Traders – Trading strategy – Investors411 is taking @5 % profit on any recently purchased position and letting the rest ride. Investors is then putting a stop/sell order on the price it was bought for.  In volatile markets the only thing to do is make short term trades. Will sell 1/2 of  IMAX, VCI, and/or DGIT if criteria is approached at near open. Selling into rally

Investors – Wait for trend to establish itself.

NB – Friday’s Investors411 will be minimal and published early.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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EU Massive Bailout Package

The European Union & the IMF have done what they had to do to, at least temporarily, to  avert fears in Greece & Europe. From NYT

“European leaders agreed to provide a huge rescue package of nearly $1 trillion to combat the debt crisis that has engulfed Europe, and central banks began injecting cash into the financial system.”

This has sent European stock markets soaring & the US is following. Judging from the  reaction of traders and investors this plan has enough fire power to work.

More Analysis from Seeking Alpha – Too Much Too Late. & Greek Bailout Plan Increased by a Factor of Five

Like the USA the EU has chosen to use further debt to solve a debt crisis and to avert a global financial meltdown.

Nuclear Power (Round 3)

From Yankee Bob [Bolding/color by editor]

Dear John,

Wind, solar and geothermal only need gov. subsidies to level the playing field. All the fossil fuels and Nuclear are HEAVILY subsidized by the gov. so that taxpayer aid should be factored in any cost comparison.

When they, the fossil fuel industry and their apologists, show you cost comparisons,the fossil fuels are cheaper then clean energy. But they have not factored in the tax payer subsidies that the fossils get and dwarf what the clean greens get. They also don’t factor in the tremendous amount of water the fossils consume and waste.

If the coal industry is allowed to mine all of the Powder River Basin, there won’t be enough water in Wyoming left to support life. How many fish kills have the Nuke Plants caused? What happens if there is a terror attack on Indian Point? Can you really evacuate the NY Metro area? Why is the cost to decommission Nuke Plants not factored in to operating costs and why should the taxpayer be left, always, with that bill?! Show me one Nuke plant that opened on time and under budget  and lowered the electric rate!….

This editorial is continued here or in comments section of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Major markets fell again in massive volume. From Friday “On a pure technical basis we are near the end of the downside move.” The last two days of massive volume technically shows a classic selloff.  In laymen terms – almost everybody that’s going to sell has

Europe’s massive bailout package has seemed to positively impacted markets this AM (See above) = Bullish

How this works technically is that a massive amount of traders short the market + Almost everyone who was going to sell has. This creates a position where few sellers are left and the vast majority of traders are short (betting the market is going to go down). These shorts are forced to buy  to cover (buy the stock because they will loose money the higher it goes)

This is all one big fear/greed play and pre-market indictors are way way up. Dow +400 points. European markets up 4 to 9%

Last Weeks Fearless Forecast – “Down Week” We got toasted

This Weeks Fearless Forecast – “Up Week”  (see EU Bailout above) Not a difficult call with pre markets up +400 on Dow

Fundamentals (Europe Bailout and good US employment numbers) are too big to ignore. Markets have technically reacted. Because of the massive move in Europe and pre markets, everything is going higher.  We should get on the rally train at the first dip.

• McClellan Oscillator rose to -123.10 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – In the last three years the MO has only reached pass this level 3 times –  10/08, 3/09, & 10/09 = We are way oversold = Bullish
• US Dollar – fell  -0.30%.  [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules. Rising dollar almost always = falling stocks. The bailout is going to send the euro much higher and consequently the dollar much lower

Positions

The  Positions Section - latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

How The McClellan Oscillator works

Simply the more stocks get over sold the better the odds are of technically making  some sort of gain. The only time the MO had dropped lower (-123)was in the 2008 meltdown.  So it showed us the odds were in our favor. They still are till we reach zero. Only at zero or the 50 DMA change the odds to @50/50.

Investors411 – On Friday near close Bought 2% more IMAX at 17.25 & 1% of ESRX at 97.10. See Friday’s update. Sure wish I had invested more on Friday. Unfortunately, like everyone else, I was fearful.

Will invest 5-10% more in ETF’s early, on the first dip or end of day. Be moderate, don’t get too excited. Remember lots of this initial rally is short covering.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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Yankee Bob on Evil

Yankee Bob’s latest comments (yesterday) are today’s feature editorial.  Lots of you make really thought provoking and outside the box comments and you should always check out who is saying what about stocks, (see PaulR’s recent comments) economics and politics. Bob’s comments seem to flow from a statement by another blogger D. “I’m so sick of those who are blinded by their emotions and stereotype one side as all evil and the other as all good.”

There is a difference between personal behavior and institutional behavior. The individual s who brought us the financial disaster and needed bailing out are not necessarily evil. They just operate within an economic section that itself is dysfunctional.

The individuals play by the socially accepted standards of their small group in the financial world. It’s the standards of the group, the sector, the institutions of finance, must be changed before we see a change in the individual corporate officers. The institutions have been rigged to select those junkyard dogs who are able to game the system for the biggest gains,no matter how risky or dysfunctional for society. Then when they are successful at it,the junkyard dog expects his just due,..huge bonuses and is perplexed when the victimized taxpayers don’t like him because he did as his sector, his small group expected him to do and he was damned good at it.

That social sector, financial executives, looks at the public as sheep to be shorn, not helped. These people are not evil . They operate in a world that has different expectations then the public. The group dynamic has to be changed,…not the individuals.

See part 2 in the comments section of blog

* What Yankee Bob says holds for everything except the beloved saintly Boston Red Sox and the forces of Darth Vader & the evil empire the New York Yankees

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Volume was moderately higher as stocks advance yesterday. The Fed decision to basically leave the change in interest language alone was well received by investors and sparked the rally. How markets react to news is often a future indicator of short term market direction.  Since the Oscillator Investors uses is not yet overbought we have some wiggle room for stocks to move higher in the short term. See read of tea leaves below.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose to +44.11 yesterday. We still under +60 or Overbought territory and the recent high of over 75.  StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. Two weeks ago week the NYMO reached a high of 75.33.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Short term traders – To be a short term trader you have to realize just how much more the vast majority of investors/institutions know about the stock/ETF  you’re investing in than you. What you can do, because these sharks invest so much money, is follow their footprints.  What Investors411 hopes to do is educate on how to follow those footprints and see the direction they are headed. You have to realize the significant risk and potential leverage problem in holding high beta (volatile ETF’s and stocks) short term positions overnight. You have to have a better understanding of fundamentals behind any positions or ETF’s mentioned in Investors411. You also have to have an exit the position plan in advance.

Best Read of the Tea Leaves = The rally predicted for this week was reinforced by the Fed decision not to change language about leaving interest rates alone. I’m going to try to play TYH again on a small dip (if it happens) and sell it when markets get oversold. Again I’ll have a tight 3% stop.  The mistake was not to invest in a stock or ETF yesterday after it became obvious that US markets were reacting positively to what the Fed said at 2:15 EST.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING