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Global Roundup

• UK - Slowest recovery in 180 years (Financial Times headline) The right wing in the USA desperately wants us to take the same measures the UK has.

• Syria – The dictator continues to massacre pro democracy advocates – 41 yesterday. Latest

• Yemen - Civil war intensifies, Part of Arab spring/democracy movement Latest

• Best source for Arab Spring Revolutions. LINK

• US – Effective Corporate Tax rate Lowest for US as a % of GDP among 30 industrialized nations in survey NYT LINK Wall Street’s propaganda machine cries about taxes, but the reality is they are among the lowest in the world.

• World News – Global Commission – “Global war on Drugs has Failed.” BBC LINK This is not really news, just a statement of the obvious. We should  legalize/tax marijuana sales.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-2.22%	Down
NASDQ	-2.33%	Up
S&P 500	-2.28%	Up
Russell 2000	-2.37%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Reading The Tea Leaves

Bottom Line - All this will gets played out this summer.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose yesterday +0.33%. This halted a A five day decline. We’re at an inflection point and today’s move will give a clearer picture of momentum.  Still trading below 50 DMA .  For US Stocks = NEUTRAL/bearish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] From Yesterday “Very reasonable to assume rally will soon become overbought.”  Obviously stocks were overbought and this added to yesterday’s meltdown. MO fell dramatically to -1.72 yesterday. This is almost the exact middle of the range so stocks are not oversold or overbought. Lots of wiggle room up or down, but after a real bad meltdown momentum is with the bears. However overall position is now = NEUTRAL

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Paul’s Corner

ARRRRRGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!

Wow what a sell off yesterday! Was this an honest reaction to a dismal employment report (A private corporation report) Greece or just en excuse for profit taking? It looks like a small bounce at the open, which is usually expected after a big drop.

Looking at the market we find the Treasuries, Gold, Silver and the  Commodities at the top of the list yesterday  above the  indexes, DOW, S&P, Naz 100, etc. As Dave Garlardi reminded us last evening on the HGSI Webinar when we find these indexes at the top you don’t want to be in the market. Is this merely a buy the dip opportunity?

A good search on a down day is for the high demand stocks, 4 of the top 5 were “medical/pharma” groups. 2^nd on the list was the “Internet services” group.

Internet-Services (7.00%, 7 securities)

• Cogent Communications Group (CCOI)
• IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)
• NetEase.com  Inc. (NTES)
• Rediff.com India  Ltd. (REDF)
• Sify Technologies Limited (SIFY)
• SINA Corporation (SINA)
• VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)

It looks like VHC carried the group (in fact it was the top high demand stock yesterday), here is why:

LINK

All of the stocks on Your Stock List went down as expected. Most hit support. JNPR down almost 10% from “Cautious Outlook” remarks from the CEO. Since JNPR has been in a constant downward slide for 3 months now I doubt this is a buy the dip opportunity.

The usual warnings of capital preservation come out after days like yesterday, this sounds like a good idea IMO.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun! (fun?)

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

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Positions

SLV/AGQ (very roughly 2x silver) This is a high beta commodity, full of speculators and therefore will fall far faster than stocks –

Mea culpa – Should have taken profits on 1/2 yesterday. Will do so today – hopefully in a rally.

REMX – (Rare Earth metals) Investors has a 1/2 position in this ETF

NLY - Annaly Capital Management – An ultra high dividend stock.

YOUR Stock List – These are growth stocks that have higher risk.

Strategy - Until we get a sign from the Fed that they “have our back” buying the dip is out and selling into rallies is in. (unless you can find a superior stock – see Paul’ and other bloggers in comment section of blog.)

Investors411 will be adding ETF’s that short the market in rallies. See comments section of blog for when this happens. See POSITION’s section of blog for some alternatives.

The sky is NOT falling. But the bullish fundamentals that have kept the bull market growing since November are changing. This brings uncertainty/fear and investors sell under these conditions.

Disclosure - I own both SLV & REMX

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Another Snow Day

I’m again one with my Snowblower this AM so just a few quick items

Egypt

Another People’s Revolution is underway, inspired by what happened in Tunisia, but just like the one one in Iran. The major difference in the people rising up against the dictatorship in Iran & Egypt is that we give massive support to keep the Egyptian dictatorship in power and we basically Iran’s dictatorship is an enemy.

Sources on Egyptian revolution

• Huffington post -Live updates
• Informed Comment blog – Six protesters confirmed dead
• BBC – Another day of Mass Protests & BBC is also covering brewing a peoples Revolution against the American backed dictator in Yemen

Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen are all American backed dictatorships. We prattle on about freedom and democracy yet support dictatorships that do our bidding throughout the world while torturing, killing, and oppressing their people and freedom.

Stocks

Traders – I would keep stop’s tight. Both the Dow (breaking up through 12,000) and the S&P (breaking up through 1300) are encountering resistance in crossing these psychological thresholds.

Traders & Investors – Read Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly report from yesterday. It’s hard not to be bullish while quantitative easing puts a floor under stock prices. Long Term Outlook remains CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

I will make some further remarks after snow blowing in comments section. If something unusual happens I’m sure Paul R would let you know.

Check out the comments from Bob, Monitor, Doggies Mom, D. & Popeye on right side of blog. Are they right?

The Green Revolution

The Iranian Green Revolution has again erupted into massive demonstrations. Today’s lead editorial at NYT Iran’s War on Its People LINK

One video shows protesters stopping a lynching LINK More pro reform video’s of demonstration LINK The BBC (almost always superior to American media) has photos of clashes LINK & Andrew Sullivan (Atlantic Magazine) again outstanding in coverage LINK Al Jazeera (Arab media’s largest outlet) also has lots of coverage LINK Warning some of these pictures and videos are violent

About the worst thing that could happen is if Israel or the USA launched some sort of attack. We didn’t when the satellites of the old Soviet empire crumbled and we should not now. It would create martyrs in Iran and almost all those demonstrating are asking us to stay out. To help - the best YOU can do is spread the news/videos.

The irony here is in Iraq we have put in power the same kind of religious theocracy. Maliki, our supposed puppet head of Iraq, was the first (government/group) along with Hamas and Hezbollah to recognize Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent presidential election. The two major religious leaders in Iraq Sard and Sistani have never even spoken to any Americans.

Yemen & Saudi Arabia

Al Qaeda of Saudi Arabia has claimed responsibility and Yemen was where the attempted bomber of the Christmas plane flight was trained. We seem to be already using drone planes to attack suspected bases in Yemen. These two groups seemed to have merged. For more see LINK

Let’s put together an incomplete list of where these (Sunni as opposed to Shia) al Quaeda terrorists are from or trained – The USA, Saudi Arabia, England, Yemen, Iraq, France, Germany, Syria, Indonesia, Spain,Nigeria, Egypt and the list goes on and on and on and on and grows and grows and grows and grows.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that got the most recommendations I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

• BIDU – Baidu Inc. China’s version of Google. After a HUGE 300% rally tis year it looks technically like this stock is leveling off. The last 3 months it has tried to break out above 350 and failed.  The BDI  which is often used for a proxie on China has fallen for 6 weeks. I’d wait for a turn in the BDI and/or a BIDU breakout over the 450 level before investing.
  
• AAPL – Apple Computer – A company that everyone knows. Along with AMZN & GOOG, AAPL has led tech stocks higher.  Apple has just broken out to a new high. There has been increased volume (a good sign)supporting AAPL for the last few months. Right now US markets & AAPL are nearing overbought levels. Right now this limits upside movement. Still tempting and a buy the dip stock.
  
• AMZN – Amazon – Internet retail giant.  Looks like Christmas season for this giant is going to be better than expected. Investors411 has bought and sold this stock. There was a good buy the dip opportunity a week+ back when AMZN dipped back to its 50 day moving average. Like AAPL a lot of increased volume behind AMZN in the last few months – good sign. If markets move higher these last two will lead. A buy the dip stock.

That’s it – Use the calender at the top of the page and go over all YOUR stock choices made over the last week+.  Some of them are great “buy the dip opportunities”

Next  Stock forecast for 2010

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.26%	up
NASDQ	+0.24%	up
S&P500	+0.12%	up
Russell2000-	-0.05%	-

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

• Brown = repeat statements
• Green = usually bullish statements
• Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Another low volume day. Stocks have been up 6 days in a row on extremely low volume.

Holiday sales estimated to be up 3.6%. This is a positive surprise LINK = Bullish fundamental

McClellan Oscillator at +48.42 (very close to overbought – see below) = Bearish technical

See changes in positions below.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before “Up to flat week” – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +48.42 This is very close to an  Overbought Position. = Time to start lighten up on positions. This does not mean the markets won’t move higher. I’ve set up a yearly chart of the $NYMO LINK You’ll notice that the $NYMO went all the way up to +100 in the big March rally. So + 60 is NOT an automatic sell of everything, but a signal to lighten up. See buys/sells below.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+ =  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Sold (6% of portfolio)  FXI at 42.35. FXI now 12% of portfolio – Profit +36% Will add to the this key position when BDI turns positive for over a week and/or the $NYMO is closer to oversold positions

Very tight stop on 1/2 the position of UWM (ETF that does 2X what small cap sacks do) The other stop at 1/2 is at the price UWM was bought.  Will sell 1/2 into any rally

Now 48% invested in stocks. If you count one mutual fund I’ve owned for 5 years (BRSIX ) I’m 54% invested in stocks. Click on POSITIONS section at top of blog for more.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH