Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
August 20, 2012

Dancing Badly

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

.

Investors411 is still on

Summer Break

But, we have a Paul’s Corner Below

.

Meanwhile,  50 million have

watched this “Dancing” Video

It brings joy to your life

and the planet a little

closer together

.

.

One minute into the video

it explodes with

how people all across the world

share

joy, happiness, and dance

.

Link Here

for 2008 version

or Use Photo LINK

Thanks to Jim J who found a copy without an add.

.

*********************

.

Paul’s Corner

August 2012

.

.

It looks like the market is finally getting ready to go again. We have sat through a correction starting back in April and have seen the Ying Yang of the market for the past few months. Unless you have an iron stomach or were a skilled intraday trader this market hasn’t been safe.

Your Stock List May 2012 has seen most of the stocks correct sharply. Another example that buy and hold isn’t a great strategy these days. So it’s time to put together another list. I recently posted a few suggestions in the comments section:

Comment link A:

Comment link B:

I spent the past few days looking at many of the stocks I stuffed into various watch lists in my HGSI database. I created a list of stocks which look interesting. The following .TXT file lists 100 stocks from my current personal watch list.

Paul’s Top 100:

The following is an Excel file of these stocks with lots of fundie and technical data. This spread sheet sorts these stocks using Ian Woodward’s “Point score”. It’s sorted on the “Raw Combo”, and this basically brings the best stocks (at the moment) to the top of the list.

Paul’s Top 100 Excel File:

Please note many aren’t buyable at the moment but are worth watching for future buy points.

So my friends, you now have a list of interesting stocks to evaluate. I need all of you to make requests/suggestions as to which stocks from this list or your own lists we might add to the next “Your Stock List”. I’m not going to glean the lists any further; it’s up to you folks to participate.

So are we up to the challenge?

Disclaimer: You buy any of the dogs listed on any of these lists, you are a fool! You lose your house, your van, or your show set up from buying these stocks, too bad!

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July 23, 2012

Summer Break

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

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Investors 411 is

on Summer Break

But…

,

.

The POSITIONS Section contains

.

  • The Stock outlook for the 2nd half of 2012
  • A List of recommended dividend Stocks for the longer term
  • Your Stock List [8 of the last 9 YSL's beat the S&P 500]

.

The STRATEGY contains Section contains

how 411 Evaluates Stocks

.

The OVERVIEW Section contains

an Economic and Political outlook

with a List of Resources

.

The Comments Section

is wide open

.

Closing Thought

from Art Buchwald

.

FINIS

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July 6, 2012

Another Mega Scandal

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

.

Another Mega

International Scandal

.

.

Another Major

Preventable Catastrophe

.

Involving collusion between

a corporate cartell and the

politicians/regulators

they own

.

HEADLINE

.

“A scathing Japanese parliamentary report

investigating the circumstances of the

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-plant disaster

blamed the dangerous incident on

collusion between government agencies

and Japan’s leading energy company”

.

LINK to TIME Magazine story

.

.

Millions of Lives negatively Imacted

Trillions in overall economic costs

.

The technology did not fail,

but just as with the Bankstas

who brought the world to the

edge of economic collapse in 2008

and are still creating the same

too big to fail havoc today

.

Its the GREED of the plutocracy

Skimming all the profits and

punishing us with their disaster

.

Thanks to EW and Popeye [LINK to his comment] for bring this up in the comments section and our thought go out to JSs son who, like Godzilla (see cartoon above) got out of town (Japan) but is back living there.

.

***********************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Paul,

who is trying to stay cool

at a very hot art show,

has posted the latest results

of  the current YOUR Stock List

LINK Here

.

YSL +0.26

S&P 500 -2.17

.

*******************

.

Long Term Outlook

3+ months

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS

.


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June 21, 2012

YOUR Stock List wins again

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

.

“The Great Latvia

Success Story”

.

.

LINK

to 1 minute 27 sec.

comedy video

.

AUSTERITY

WORKING?

.

Latvia, unlike other countries

[scroll down at link for this chart]

may have found a solution

.

Finally a country

where Tea Party styled

mandated austerity

has NOT lead to

has led to  a massive growth

in unemployment

.

Latvia’s unique solution

.

********************

.

YOUR Stock List

.

.

Paul

.

.

has published the results

of the latest

YOUR Stock List

in the comments section of the blog.

.

The YSL’s started in April & May are

both outperforming the S&P 500

.

LINK

.

Kudos

to all of you who helped

create the list and share investment

ideas in the comment section

of the blog

.

*****************


JPM & Kleptocracy

Fat Cat Bankers

.

.

An excellent and informative

debate on JPM in comment section

LINK [scroll down]

who may have taken over the spot

as head vampire squid from GS

.

.

More on this in the next

411

.

*******************

.

STOCKS.

.

.

Stimulus Works

.

FED announcement of continuing “Operation Twist” till end of year,

ECB’s $125 billion to Spain,

and rumors of more stimulus from Central Banks

is forcing

HOT MONEY

[NB -If you invest or trade the markets you must

know what "HOT MONEY" means and learn to

follow its flow]

to find a place to go

where the interest rate

isn’t near zero.

.

That place is the

Stock Market

Our Spanish 10 year bond, after several months as an accurate forecasting tool, stumbled last week.

Still  the bond rate is falling significantly this AM ( Down 3.22% to 6.53% at 8:00 EDT) = Short term Bullish

.

Spanish 10 year bond yield link

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

as head .

..



.



.



.



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May 29, 2012

Helicopters & Dog Poop

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Germany/Berlin

.

.

12 top Thoughts on

Berlin/Germany Trip

.

  • More outdoor Cafe’s than Paris – Wide sidewalks.
  • Phenomenal tram/train system – Moves millions each day
  • Lots of Graffiti – Origins from Berlin Wall – Most of it art work, but lots trash.
  • No slums – I couldn’t find any in 9 days.
  • Absence of smog – From vistas you can see for miles without cloudy brown scum.
  • Forest in center of city and each major neighborhood has huge park – Mine has a Beer Garden in the center.
  • Beware of cyclists (lots) – Separate bike lanes everywhere. – Germans obey pedestrian signals
  • Streets/parks are safe to walk anytime (Homicide rate 6X less than USA)
  • Most expensive baby carriages I’ve ever seen. Lots (More on German Health care later)
  • Best behaved dogs (mostly smaller) I’ve ever seen – But beware it takes a day/two for them to cleanup dog poop.
  • You can carry open beer anywhere (Street/tram)
  • Large immigrant population (@12% like USA) Like USA they seem to be second class citizens.

.

Mucho Thanks to my

pregnant daughter and her guy

for hosting/putting up with me.

.

I understand why you chose

Berlin as a place to live.

.

Standard German joke – The German police discharged their weapons 87 times (low crime rate) last year – Once at a fellow German and 86 times at Greeks.

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

This month’s Atlantic Magazine

.

Why The USA has tools to Fix

Its Economy and

Europe Does NOT

.

The Answer lies in the

Activist Fed Bank

.

Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and The Fed have the power to set interest rates. The singular difference in this case is the Fed has creatively/controversially printed money to solve/paper over our fiscal/banking crisis.

.

Over $7 trillion – Detractors

$2.9 trillion – The Fed

.

It’s why you often

see this cartoon of

Helicopter Ben


.

  • As a stock investors/trader you have to give Bernanke/the Fed lots of credit. Every time they have directly stimulated the economy/printed money -QE #1 & 2, Operation Twist, (and other ways) stocks have gone UP
  • Also, along with the Obama stimulus/tax cuts and other measures, GDP has gone from from a -8.9% to a relatively steady +2%.

.

The Case against Fed Intervention

Inflation

.

.

  • The Fed’s critics (mostly far right)  starting with TARP have screamed INFLATION will come -
  • Examples – WSJ (The Bond Vigilante editorial) MS (5.5% inflation by end of 2010) Bond King Bill Gross, S&P downgrade of AAA rating, of course Republicans, especially Ron Paul.

.

Problem is year after year

They’re WRONG

NO Inflation has happened

.

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation and it stands at @2.3%. Our 10 year T bill stands at less than 2%.
  • Our dollar is a bit weaker (you could argue that this is good for the USA) but by no means has it melted down. (currently moving higher)
  • DEBT – One reason our Debt is not a Clear and present Danger is that if you adjust for the rate of Inflation 2.3% and how we pay for debt – 10 year Treasury bonds >2.0% (shorter term Treasuries even LESS) we are actually paying down the debt by at least +0.3%

.

The EU’s Problem

Unlike our Fed

.

No Direct Intervention

.

.

  • The EU has economically sound countries and its PIIGS – The S in PIIGS stands for Spain
  • I in PIIGS stands for Italy (EU’s largest economically unsound country). It’s debt is @120% of yearly GDP (ours @100%)
  • Italian bonds costs Italy (according to Megan MeArdle in this months Atlantic) 5% of GDP each year,
  • Japan with more than a 200% debt/yearly GDP ratio has a more interventionist central bank. Japan had a 1.0% growth in GDP last quarter (smaller than USA, but more than Europe)
  • Japan has had low interest rates for a decade so debt is manageable. (There is a case for higher interest rates – but that’s another editorial)

.

Bottom Line

Other problems have

NOT been mentioned

But

If the ECB does NOT institute

more direct intervention

Remember What happened to the

Dodo Bird?

******************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

[Sorry this was supposed to run on Friday, but there was No 411 in Friday (Editor)]

As we take off a few days for the 1st official weekend of summer let’s take time to remember our fallen heroes and all of the men and women who have served our country.

A quick review of the charts we find the following stocks from YSL are looking decent and should be watched once this correction is over.

DDD

DLTR

HD

LEN

MNST

TSCO

From the April List

FL (for you Jim)

SWI

AKRX

A few extras to watch

BNNY

ITB

MDVN

ROST

XHB

TNGO

SPB

PATK

AVD

Disclaimer – you know the drill, any stock mentioned is for education only and if you buy any of these dogs…..


.

*****************

.

Investors411 currently focuses on the yield of the Spanish 10 year bond as our canary in a cold mine. In a globalized world this rate strongly impacts Europe and less strongly, but significantly the USA. The rate would have to close back below its support at 6.31% for 411 to consider a NEUTRAL upgrade.

Currently you can find the Italian 10 year bond rate here Last look at &:00AM EDT it was 6.46%

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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May 2, 2012

Beating the S&P Again

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

.

The Correlation is

Awesome

.

The More US globalized Companies

Invest in

Brutal Dictators and

their Cheap Labor Force,

the higher US Stocks Go


Blind Chinese

Democracy Dissident

.

.

Chen Guangcheng

.

Gangs of thugs brutally beat his family and friends, yet some how Chen managed to escape. Now he is  being hospitalized.

.

..

Why is it that instead of passionately

backing freedom and democracy

.

  • The Obama administration is walking on eggshells over this?
  • Right wingers aren’t screaming “commie bastards”?

.

Why?

.

.

  1. China owns over A Trillion+ dollars of US Debt?
  2. US globalized companies from Apple to Walmart hire millions of Chinese workers?
  3. US taxes Chinese imports at a rock bottom 2.5%, while they tax ours at 25%?
  4. China floods the USA with lower cost imports?
  5. The more US companies invest in China, the higher their stock prices go?
  6. US companies desperately want to expand in China?
  7. ALL OF THE ABOVE!

.

.

_________________

.

US Global Companies

Sure Love Their Dictators

.

.

US companies are calling for and end to sanctions against the brutal dictatorship and Resource rich country of Myanmar

.

A show of Hands

.

.

Think the Myanmar news

will make mainstream media?

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Trends

.

Notice similarity to Monday’s blog. These trends impacting global stock markets are becoming STRONGER.

  • Earning Result are virtually over. Usually better than expected results, were mush better than expected. Expansion of US companies in China played a major role in earnings results
  • Europe – Major trend is many European economies are rejecting sever austerity measures.  Germany (who has the most to lose) is fighting the tide. Story
  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] have stabilized over last three weeks just under 6% danger zone.
  • Spanish bond rates rising this AM to 5.85% at 6:00 AM EDT.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] is at +35.50. Closer to overbought than oversold, but still NEUTRAL

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..


Can the US market Rally despite the problems

in just about every other major world market?

.

  • Dow closed at its highest in 4 years. AAPL was no help.
  • Europe’s canary in the coal mine, Spanish bonds need to stay below 6%. It is. A strong resistance level has been established at 6%.
  • Our Fed’s “Operation Twist” ends in June. Traders/Investors/Manipulators need to see that they will continue liquidity dump.

.

Still looking looking decent for May if we don’t have a Spanish yielded problem.

.

If there is no signs of further Fed liquidity, then the late spring meltdown of past two years will repeat.

.

*************************


.

More Trumpets

.

.

Your Stock List

.

Paul announced the results from

the last stock list in the comments section.

.

.

S&P 500 = -0.75

YSL =  +3.27

.

That makes 8 of the 9

YOUR Stock Lists

Home runs

that beat the S&P.

.

YOUR new Stock List

is in Monday’s blog.

.

Good advice from Paul “Please keep in mind, its earnings season and some of these stocks haven’t reported yet. It’s your responsibility to find out when your stock reports and the earnings estimate. Many of these stocks are currently extended and you should wait for a pull back before a buy.”

YSL Only works because YOU send in a short list of your favorite stock. Look for a discussion of them and stocks in the comments section of blog every day

NB – I do own some of the stocks on YSL

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond yield over 6% =  NEUTRAL

Under 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 30, 2012

A Big Wet Kiss

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A Big Wet Kiss


BFF – The Love Grows

.

.

China Totalitarian Regime

&

America’s Corporate Plutocrats

.

_______

.

Two behemoths are moving so close together

its hard to tell them apart

.

.

APPL’s embraces China

.

Last week 411 went over GE who pays a net -18.9% corporate tax rate to the USA and a +25% tax rate to a totalitarian regime in China.all

APPL is no different than the other globalized companies that help to contribute to their above  and below the table  support of the communist dictatorship in China.

.

  • Apple’s record profits in its earnings report come from China
  • AAPL like hundreds of globalized American companies pay a 25% Chinese corporate tax,
  • millions of workers  who owe their jobs to American Corporations pay up to a 45% China tax
  • All imported American products are taxed at 25% vs a 2.5% tax on Chinese goods coming to America
  • All this goes to the
    Totalitarian Chinese communist state
    and their military machine
    .
    China’s Latest Stealth Bomber
    .
    .
    _________________
    .
    Across the big Pond

    In the USA
    .
    Sheldon Adelson
    .
    Sheldon Adelson
    (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
    .
    Macau (China) Gambling magnet  Sheldon Adelson has already has already contributed more money to an American Presidential campaign than any other person in history – At least $35 million.
    .
    Now, because of our plutocrat
    .
    loving

    Supreme Court

    Adelson right wing contributions

    will be


    .
    While we all applaud
    our latest product
    .

.

NB – Investors411 believes in  capitalism that has some order and social responsibility. Not the greed based “free market” casino extraction systems that are gaining control of the world’s economies.


This blog is written on an

Apple Macintosh Computer

&

AAPL is on “YOUR Stock List”

So this editorial is also self criticism

.

Please recognize,

that OUR short term

GREED

has long term

consequences

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Trends

.

  • Earning Result are usually better than expected. This time a lot better. Growth in China often cited as a major factor.
  • Europe – Major trend is many European economies are rejecting sever austerity measures.  Short term stocks may suffer
  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] have stabilized over last three weeks just under 6% danger zone.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] is nearing overbought territory

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..

Technically  - Obvious short term momentum with bulls, but another rally day will bring is into mildly overbought territory. Stock moving higher need two factors. The fact that socialists should win May 6th elections in France should be already factored into stocks.

  • Europe’s canary in the coal mine, Spanish bonds need to stay below 6%. A strong resistance level has been established.
  • Our Fed’s “Operation Twist” ends in June. Traders/Investors/Manipulators need to see that they will continue liquidity dump.
  • Short term bulls will soon get an overbought correction soon if rally continues. Longer term below

As long as the Spanish canary doesn’t chip we’re looking decent for May. If there is no signs of further Fed liquidity, then the old late spring/summer meltdown will probably repeat itself.


.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Announcing Brand New

YOUR Stock List

.

.

Your Stock List

.

Here you  go folks, the latest stock list selected by Investors 411 readers! The list includes many of your favorite and well known stocks.

Please keep in mind, its earnings season and some of these stocks haven’t reported yet. It’s your responsibility to find out when your stock reports and the earnings estimate. (That’s not my job!)

There were quite a few great suggestions, but we tended to select stocks that had more votes. This list is entirely made up from your suggestions.

Many of these stocks are currently extended and you should wait for a pull back before a buy.

____________

..

AMZN – Amazon.com, Inc. operates as an online retailer in North America and internationally. It operates retail Websites, such as amazon.com and amazon.ca.

AAPL – Apple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices.

DDD – 3D Systems Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and servicing of 3D printers and related products, print materials, and services.

KO – The Coca-Cola Company, a beverage company, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of nonalcoholic beverages worldwide.

DLTR – Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00.

EBAY - eBay Inc. provides online platforms, services, and tools to help individuals and merchants in online and mobile commerce and payments in the United States and internationally

HD – The Home Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer.

IMAX – IMAX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment technology company specializing in motion picture technologies and presentations worldwide.

IBM – International Business Machines Corporation provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide.

LEN - Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding, financial services, and real estate businesses in the United States.

MNST – Monster Beverage Corporation is a marketer and distributor of energy drinks and alternative beverages.

PCLN – priceline.com Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online travel company.

SBUX – Starbucks Corporation purchases and roasts whole bean coffees. It operates 6,705 company-operated stores and 4,082 licensed stores in the United States

TSCO – Tractor Supply Company is a specialty retailer which supplies the daily farming and maintenance needs of its target customers: hobby, part-time and full-time farmers and ranchers, as well as rural customers, contractors and tradesmen

URI – United Rentals, Inc. is one of North America’s largest equipment rental companies with over branches in the majority of states, several Canadian provinces and Mexico.

__________

Disclaimer – Buy or trade at your own risk. Any comments made now or in the future about these stocks are for education only. At time of writing I do not own ANY of the stocks listed.

[Editor's Note. Thanks! - YSL Only works because YOU send in a short list of your favorite stock. Look for a discussion of them in the comments section of blog every day]

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond yield over 6% =  NEUTRAL

Under 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 27, 2012

The Primal Scream

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

History will Repeat Itself

Unless we learn from it

.

Austerity in a weak Economy

is Devastating-

.

Japan

.

.

Almost two decades ago Japan’s rising economy was the envy of the world

Then, they went into recession and introduced austerity measures.

The end result was a stagnant Japanese economy with a Debt to GDP ratio of well over 200%

.

Yale’ Economist

Robert Schiller

(pg. 84 Money magazine)

.

“Fiscal austerity to reduce debt can backfire -as has been the case in debt laden Japan.”

.

Aside – How does Japan manage an ugly Debt to GDP ratio well over twice ours? Low Low Low Treasury bond rates.  We do the same with our Low Rates. Their rate for the 10 year bond is under 1%, ours under 2%

.

__________

.

England Hits Recession

Another Austerity Mistake

.

.

Headline Daily Mail

.

“The first double dip for 37 years…

Britain endures

longest downturn for a century”

..

Now besides Europe waking up to the fact,  austerity doesn’t work we have England as the latest example.

Even countries like Spain and Ireland who had budget surpluses before the 2008 meltdown are now in deep trouble after introducing austerity measures. (See STOCK Section below on downgrade of Spanish bonds)

.

____________

.

.

The Primal Scream


.

Investors411 is just one small blog

that’s been right about

this again and again and again

..

“Of course we must eventually deal with the deficit.  But the example of Britain and Europe show that austerity in the midst of a jobs crisis is a form of insanity.

.

It ultimately makes deficits worse and leads to economic stagnation and double dip recessions.”

.

Quote from Must Read

Editorial

by John Atcheson

.

“Splitting the Difference Between Myth

.

and Reality Is Not Good Economics

.

Told You So -

The UK’s Double Dip Recession and Ours”


*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

  • Spanish Bonds rose SIGNIFICANTLY this AM near 6.00% danger zone. Rate at at 5.96% at 6:45 AM EDT Latest update on Spanish bond rates for traders HERE
  • Despite austerity Program in Spain Spanish Bonds were downgraded two levels Story Here
  • Two trends – Bad news – US economy keeps deteriorating at a slight rate. Good News - Earnings report are outstanding for US companies.

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Simply Put – The massive gains in stocks over the last three years is NOT trickling down into the US economy in a Significant way. The rich are getting richer as working middle class Americans stagnate.

Any stock move significantly higher is predicated on the Fed continuing some kind of liquidity dump. The latest liquidity injection “Operation Twist” ends in June.

.

************************

.

Your Stock List

.

.

Today’s the last day to submit your favorite stocks

to be on YOUR stock List starting May 1st.

.

List your choices in the comments section

or email them to me.

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL

These bonds are now back below 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Getting Shaky again

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 25, 2012

Austerity or Growth

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

.

It’s Official

Keynes & Krugman

are Right

.

Prize Award Ceremony

.

At least for the Dutch

French and most of Europe

.

Keynes and Krugman are two Nobel Prize winning Economists who believe you stimulate your way out of a recession. Austerity plunges you deeper into the recession.


After several years of austerity right wingers in France and Holland (yesterday’s elections), plus many more got the message.

From Yahoo Finance

the money quote

.

“The “austerity” idea, you’ll remember, was that the continent’s huge debt and deficit problem had ushered in a “crisis of confidence” and that, once business-people saw that governments were serious about debt reduction, they’d get confident and start spending again.”

.

“That hasn’t worked.”

.

____________

.

The Obama

Economic Triumph

.


Facing Financial Armageddon,

a -8.9% GDP rate & the losses of Almost -800,000 a month

Obama took offic in Jan 2008.

.

By the end of 2010 GDP had soared to between +2% and+3%

and job growth had turned positive up to +250k a month


.

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP

In 2010 the uncompromising

Tea Party Republicans took over,

the Obama Stimulus Ran out, and

therefore, growth came to a halt.

.

  • Moving from a -9% GDP to a +2/3% GDP is real Change You can Believe in
  • Moving From a -800,00 jobs a month to +200,000 jobs is real Change you can Believe in.

.

Please show me another President

who has taken GDP from -9% to +2/3%

.

The problem

.

We have a big deficit, Europe already shown austerity leads to another recession, Japan got clobbered, China’s GDP is shrinking and Apple’s huge earnings success yesterday just leads to more Chinese jobs.

European voters have realized that just austerity doesn’t work.

.

So should you.

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.


  • APPL had one of those OMG earnings report.  Sales were so so in the USA, but in China they were spectacular.
  • Spanish Bonds have fallen for the last two days and are SIGNIFICANTLY  below the 6.00% danger zone at 5.79%. Latest update for traders HERE
  • NB -Apple’s earnings are a reflection of their business doing spectacular in China and not in the USA – Reuters story

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Kudos to Monitor (long term Apple holder) who a full day before the earnings report suggested AAPL return to YOUR Stock List.  Apple should lead tech and the S&P, but obviously don’t expect results like last quarter. There will be a group of investors/traders who will again buy the first dip.

Longer term – The Cavalry sure looks like its come to the rescue in Spain. Friends of the FED and ECB are keeping Spanish bonds below the danger Zone.


.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Your Stock List

.


.

April is almost over

Now is your chance to get your favorite stock

added to Your Stock List!

.

Effective April 30 all current YSL members are being removed.

On May 1 we will announce  the new list

.

List YOUR top stocks in the comments section or email them to Barr ASAP.

The only requirement is that a stock trades at least $5,000,000 dollars a day. Example –  Stock XYZ is worth $10 and trades 500,000 shares a day. This way we eliminate stocks that are not liquid and subject to more manipulation.

If you like defend your stock in a sentence or two.

From YOUR selections Barr & I will try to to come up with a list of 10 to 15 stocks that again will beat the S&P 500. These stocks will be tracked throughout the month. Entry and exit points will be suggested.

.

As most of you know

This process has worked!

ONLY because of

YOUR  participation.


Of the 8 stock Lists only one

has failed to beat the S&P 500

.

Group performance results for the month of April will be listed Tuesday morning.


.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL

These bonds are now back below 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 23, 2012

Greed Eats Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

..

Greed Eats Democracy


.

It Been 23 Years Since China

Massacred Democracy

At Tiananmen Square

.

________________

.

Whose Money Is Nurturing

One Party Communist State?

.

.

Greedy

Oligarchs Love Dictators

and

Hate Democracy

.

A given – Outsourcing – Where US companies send million of jobs overseas because of cheaper labor costs.

  • USAGE was supposed to pay a 35% tax on its $5.1 billion in US profits. Their lobbyists almost own our politicians so instead of paying taxes they have a $3.2 billion tax credit.
  • CHINA – GE pays a full 25% corporate tax in China. Add to that China is the rated second worst country for bribes. We all know major US conglomerates bribe politicians

.

Is GE Alone

Hell NO

.

Hundreds of Major US Companies

Feed the Totalitarian

One Party Chinese State

.

FAIRNESS

.

.

US Corporations give in to the

Chinese Dictatorship

who, with their help, will soon

rule the world

.

Why can’t they pay

more of their fair share here?

.

Choose

.

GREED or DEMOCRACY

..

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

France/ the Dutch

Austerity or Taxes?

Dragging Stocks DOWN

.

  • Major European markets are down early (6:00 AM EDT - 1.67% to 2.67% ) on news from France, Netherlands and a Spanish Bond Rate over 6.00%. [Check out Link for latest]
  • Elections in France went badly for Sarkozy (center right). Winner – Hollande (center left). Better than expected – Anti Immigration/Euro – (far right) Most see Hollande winning the May 6th run off between him and Sarkozy – BBC report
  • FYI – Hollande wants to consider raising the top tax rate to 75% in France instead of making more and larger spending cuts. Contrast with Obama’s rise to 30% (Buffett Rule)

.

For Investors/Traders

How to Play Europe’s

Political/Economic Problems

.

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

The USA currently has the most positive outlook of all the major economies.

.

We are being dragged down by Japan (natural disaster), and Europe. Hard to call what’s happening in China – but hard to imagine 8 to 9% GDP growth continue.

Our top technical indicator –  McClellan Oscillator is at -8.22. Lots of room till we get to oversold or overbought = NEUTRAL

..

  • From Friday – Holding a full boat of long positions is problematic until another liquidity dump by Central Banks.”
  • From Friday -“ Short term play - Short - France, BNP and related banks may have some more short term downside them.” Those of you who shorted the rally in BNP and related banks should get rewarded today. This, also may turn into a position that could last through France’s May 6th election and beyond.
  • Reality – What is a short term negative for stocks is NOT bad for long term economics. If you impose too much austerity, the unemployment rate skyrockets, creating fewer taxpayers and more in need of welfare of incarceration.

  • From Friday – High risk trade – If APPL keeps going down, I may purchase some before earnings or in a dip after earnings.” Still an option. Reasoning – Hopefully AAPL will drop to a technical support level [See Paul's comments] That, and the fact that an earnings miss seems to be getting baked into its Tuesday earnings reports, puts the odds (especially for traders) in your favor.

.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Looking at the futures, it appears it’s going to be a down day. French elections show France is about to come to its senses and toss out the austerity regime. It looks like the great unwashed really don’t like what they see in the banksta controlled Europe.

Dr Jeffrey Scott, an HGSI user, last night hosted a great Sunday evening webinar (which I posted a link to Friday and Saturday in the comments section). Great review of the condition of the market and an excellent AAPL chart review. I trust some of you folks caught the webinar.

I posted the following chart review of Your Stock List Saturday for you weekend stock addicts, in case you slept in here is a repeat.

NOTE: at the start of each month we review Your Stock List for additions and deletions, kindly make any suggestions that you might have for the list via email to Barr.

.

TRADERS

.

CMG – Broke the 17 Friday after it’s earnings release was not well received, buy the dip? See comment:

DLTR – great chart, continues toward the BIG dollar in the sky!  Slightly extended. Using the Ian Woodward/HGSI proprietary “High Jump Indicator” I estimate  DLTR will be an “extended stock” in the area of 101 to 106. at which point you’ll probably will get a pull back or basing.

ENB – 52 week high,

FAST – broke down through the 50, HGSI indicators are red

FL – basing, on the 17

HD – excellent tight chart, buy any dip market conditions permitting

IBM – looks like a bit of profit taking from the old dog. ALL HGSI indicators are red, below the 50.

IMAX – HGSI indicators have turned red, two red/down Kahuna’s the past few days, sitting below lower Bollinger Band, needs to cross up through the middle BB (25.74) before a buy is “safe”.  ** Previous comment from beginning of the month remains, middle of BB is now 23.80.

KLAC – basing on the 17

LEN – great earnings report, gapped up yesterday, buy any pull back. ** Previous comment from beginning of the month, LEN promptly broke down with the market and now sitting on the 50, if it holds above the 50 may be buyable IF housing reports start to improve.

MA – tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

MNST – what a monster of a chart, buy any dip! ** Previous comment from beginning of month remains!

SWI – basing on the 50 & 17, free parking as they say!

TSCO – nice tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

URI – nice $4 pop on earnings release.

WATCHERS

.

AKRX – sitting  below the 50 and crossed up through the 17 Friday, basing, HGSI indicators turning green.

BKI – woof!

KOG – below the 50, below the 17

RYL – sitting below the 50 and the 17, LEN has a better chart and that chart isn’t much better.

DUMPSTERS


SIMO – gapped up on a story of AAPL semi chips being in short supply

CATM – woof, woof, woof!

FTK – buy at your own risk.

Disclaimer - all comments for education only, buy or trade at your own risk. At time of writing I don’t own any of the stocks listed and have been 100% in cash for the past 3 weeks.

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Changed to NEUTRAL

.

This has happened.

Add To This

Continued Meltdown in

European Markets.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.


NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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