• DAX way up 0.47% this AM (6:30EST) and the Italian 10 year bond is in full retreat for over a week. The correlation between European & US stock markets has become weaker, but still significant. Latest data below. All this = Bullish

• Trend - Economically both Europe & the USA are deteriorating. The major question is how damaged is the opaque, over leveraged, too big to fail  shadow banking sector. Our Fed and its allies are doing everything possible to ensure survival and growth. Here’s a positive editorial – Why Europe Won’t Implode.

Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

The McClellan Oscillator

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Short Term Outlook

days, week+

• Both Forecasting tools have shifted to Neutral.  But HFT dominated markets have built up some major momentum  - So chances are we’ll keep moving higher till overbought indicators start flashing a turn around.

• Path of least resistance for HFT dominated US markets is higher.

• Do the “Vampire Squids” rule the world. Here’s the negative view. One professional trader on BBC says “The collapse is Coming and Goldman Sachs Rules the World”

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Paul’s Corner

It’s amazing how well most of YSL 5 stocks have done during the last few weeks of market paranoia. As of Monday’s close YSL5 +7.48 vs +1.96 for the S&P 500, that’s from the close of Aug 18 to yesterday’s close.

Chris asked yesterday when we could expect an all clear. I have no idea at the moment, as I suggested yesterday in the comments section when we have Eureka’s and Kahunas coming out of our ears then it will be safe for the retail investor (us).

AKRX has really performed quite well during these past few weeks. It’s a good stock to nibble at provided you have a market heading in the correct direction.

One of my favorite HGSI indicators is the Force Index.  It’s a simple indicator, you take today’s close minus yesterdays close and multiply by today’s volume. You then list your stocks from highest to lowest and the strongest stocks of the day are at the top.

Using the average of 2 and 13 day Force index, when you have a positive 13 and an occasional pull back on the 2 day force it’s a good entry point. Look at the chart of AKRX,  on 9/9 and 9/12 the 2 day force  went negative. On 9/13 as the 2 day force turned positive it was a “safe” buy when the price climbed above the previous days high of 8.08. You could have left the house 9/13 with a buy stop order of 8.10 and when it crossed 8.10 you had your buy. If it didn’t go in the right direction, your order wasn’t filled.

Chart Image Link

AKRX got a wee bit extended this past week and was taken to the woodshed yesterday in a pull back. Give it a few days to settle down again before attempting another buy.

Chart Comments

AKRX  – pulled back off of extended territory, give a few days to settle down

ABV – sitting on the 200 buyable if it stays above the 200 and best buy when it climbs up through the 50

NLY – Pulling back below the 200, earnings history show earnings decreasing

AAPL – buyable when it dips to the 17

CPHD – all indicators green

CMG – all indicators green

CROX – sitting on the 50 buy at any time

GMCR – in a buy the dip position, buy when it crosses up through the 17 (107.60)

HANS – buyable at any time

HLF – sitting on the 50, buyable

LULU – in a dip, buyable when it crosses the 50, (56.21)

RES – strong pull back at the moment, not a broken stock.  Energy analyst Lou Powers suggested today:

The ERX Energy Canary was singing yesterday for the Day traders but too early to determine the energy sector direction. Up over 10%. In the recent downturn essentially all energy stocks suffered big losses in spite many with strong earnings growth potential.

TSU – Broken chart not a safe buy

ZAGG – Broken chart not a safe buy.

DISCLAIMER -  these comments are for education ONLY. They are not security buy or sell recommendations. This market isn’t safe for average folks!

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

NLY - Will buy back into  this high dividend stock on Dip. The date you have to hold the stock comes up on Wednesday. Since the 1/4ly dividend is usually beeween 3 and 4 % the stock often goes down close to that amount after this date. Everyone expects this so Put’s offer little protection for this incident.

Gold - From Yesterday -  Traders who can handle the risk – a third gap down at open and another  significant fall should bring us to longer term support levels. GLD is at very oversold levels. What you’ve seen is HFT and others stage a short covering rally.  I could be wrong,  and I have not had time to look study the PCR for GLD, but its ripe for a bounce.

Traders - From yesterday - We still have a risk on trading opportunity. Investors411 “RISK ON” has worked  perfectly so far. Using the MO, PCR and some technicals we’ve found some key elements as to when the trend will reverse itself. (Reminder nothing is perfect – but first the MO was good and a combo with the PCR seems to work even better.)

There looks like more follow through today, but as we move higher you start to think about cashing in some of those profits.

How to Forecasting tools – More and Bigger Bullish signals from the MO & PCR – the better your chances of a winning trade. The more and bigger the Bearish signal from MO & PCR - the better your chances are of going short or taking profits

Investors - For Europe, Japan and the USA the economic outlook is poor. If US does start constricting money supply, history will repeat itself and we’ll have another recession. The silver lining for stocks is they can do better than the economic outlook. This will be due to central bank manipulations and HFT’s.

Disclaimer - I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.

The McClellan Oscillator

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Short Term Outlook

days, week+

• Both forecasting tools in Neutral

• YSL #5 had an outstanding day yesterday. LINK (scroll down) or See Paul’s comments. Since the majority of these stocks are high growth stocks, and these kinds of stocks are usually leaders in a bull market = Bulls are waking up. AAPL (Mother of all tech stocks and a YSL #5 stock) had a significant up day.

• Fed/Bernanke probably needs to “surprise” traders/investors for rally to continue. Something called Operation Twist, seems to be priced into this rally already.

• We do have a technical series of higher highs and higher lows building on major indexes. Also a technical bottom that’s been retested. That’s bullish

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Paul’s Corner

Great day for many of the YSL 5 stocks and a fair day in the market as many stocks are starting to move, BUT keep in mind the PIIGS news still over shadows the market. If you care to play don’t jump in blindly.

Quality growth stocks will always beat the S&P  500 and YSL 5 is doing well. Current gain is 12.11% vs. 5.56% since the Aug 18 Start. Here is the group performance analysis:

GPA Link

A good way to check the individual stock performance of your portfolio is to look at the Relative Strength of each stock. Using HGSI the following chart shows the % gain against the S&P 500 for the past 4 weeks. Note the S&P 500 equals 100, so if a stock has a number of say 117 for AKRX it means AXRX has done 17% better than the S&P 500. Looking at ZAGG with a number of 85 means ZAGG has done 15% less than the S&P 500 for the past 4 weeks.

RS Link

The following are YSL 5 chart observations and are made for education only. They are not a suggestion to buy or sell any stock.

AKRX – Broke out of a 6 week base 4 days ago. Extended, buy any dip.

ABV – Sitting on the 50, basing

NLY – Chart Ok

AAPL – Broken out, extended

CPHD – Extended, breaking out of lose base

CMG – Breaking out, extended

CROX – Sitting above the 50, very loose

GMCR – Basing above the 17

HANS – Good chart buy any dip

HLF – Basing above the 50

LULU – Break out from lose base

RES – Bounced off of lower trading channel

TSU – All HGSI indicators are red

ZAGG – Chart broken down, most indicators red

The  US Fed Reserve is providing stimulus to Europe, why aren’t the Tea Baggers and their lackey Republican hacks yelling about this and the cost to Mericans?

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not. Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

6 trading days ago we retested lows and Investors411 stated that for those who could stand the risk it was time to nibble. Forecasting tools are in Neutral, but the mojo is with the bulls.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock –a @14% dividend NLY was bought in mid May at 17.14 Now at 18.16

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Bought at 167.05 - Sold 1/2 for 8% gain. GLD closed at 173.31. Gold is contrarian to stocks and More willing to buy more than sell right now

Disclaimer - I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.

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Long Term Outlook

(for US stocks only – not our economy)

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

• My favorite way of looking this is to choose a handful of stocks and buy when the MO dips. The lower the better.

• Paul often comments on these stocks in the comments section of the blog.

• This new list will replace YSL#4 in the POSITIONS section of blog today

Obviously we can’t guarantee anything and you take this advice at your own risk

See Paul’s Corner at bottom of blog for

YSL #5

• Dividend Stocks – Because may of you like dividend stocks for the long term – Here, from Seeking Alpha is 3 favorite high yield dividend plays, It include one favorite AGNC at 18.8% dividend.

Sure Looks Like Bears are coming back

It’s on its way

YOUR Stock List #5

• Four times, together, we’ve  roasted and toasted our benchmark S&P 500 LINK (scroll down for results)
• Four times YOU sent in entries for YOUR stock lists
• Four times  Paul & I have gone over them and picked potential winners (we added a few too)

Now its time for YOUR stock List #5 (YSL #5) and we think its the best yet.

Tomorrow in Paul’s Corner

YSL #5

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• Warren Buffett on Charlie Rose LINK – If you can hold the US debt ceiling hostage, you can hold it hostage to anything from abortion to the latest war.

• Warren Buffett in NYT “Stop Coddling The Super Rich” LINK

One early poll means almost nothing but Rasmussen Poll: Rick Perry 29%, Mitt Romney 18%, Michelle Bachmann 18% and Ron Paul 9% But it does raise an eyebrow.

Perry is a larger than life “gun toting, flag waving, bible thumping, Bernanke bashing, Tea Party loving, patriot.”

If I were Mitt Romney I’d be really concerned that if Bachmann of Paul drops out their vote will go to Perry and not him.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.67%	low
NASDQ	-1.24%	low
S&P 500	-0.97%	low
Russell 2000	-0.93%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• A weak volume rally followed by a weak volume decline – Just the kind of situation HFT’s in the past have used to extend a weak volume rally. News out of Europe did cause a drop, but interday we rallied off the lows.

The 3 Legs – Europe, USA & Emerging Markets

• Never forget our mantra - High Frequency Traders Rule US & European Equities- These entities make their decision in microseconds and are not based on long term trends. They account for low volume rallies and other atypical technical market behavior.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +9.99 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Chart shows we are almost dead center in the middle of oversold and overbought territory. There’s wiggle room for stocks to move either way and mojo is with the bulls. = Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves – Short term momentum still with the bulls. Fed’s low interest rates till mid 2013 and relatively low levels of the dollar mean profits for globalized American companies should hold steady. Momentum still with the bulls till we reach oversold territory in the MO

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

• Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.

• The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL. Any announcement of a type of QE #3 would push the outlook even higher.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

YOUR Stock List #5 is done and except for some last minute tweaking and waiting for an earnings report. It will be published on Thursday in Paul’s Corner.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip. Mea culpa – The small two day dip was a decent  entry point and I missed it. Why Gold

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some (about 80% of thisposition has been sold) SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

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The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

.

Fancy Pants Debt

If YOUR eyes gloss over when they explain economics (and even if they don’t)

This 3:49 seconds video is for you.

YOUR investments dollars, from the stock market to your houses value, depend on the quality of debt. So does world economics. Good debt, Bad debt and Fancy Pants debt.

The video is FUN, Entertaining, and educational.

John  Green does more than explain the Greek Crisis “which has pushed the Greek government close to defaulting on its loans, the reasons why the Euro zone and the IMF are desperately trying to bail Greece out, and what the rising cost of sovereign debt means for the massive budget deficits throughout the developed world.”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+1.36	Down
NASDQ	+1.53	Down
S&P 500	+1.44	Down
Russell 2000	+1.52	-

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

• Technically, the huge 5 day move off a double bottom (prices make a low and test it – see charts on far right) is very bullish

• Fundamentally last week -we kicked the Greek debt problem down the road. But Greek debt - benchmark 2 year bond is selling at 26%. Is virtually impossible to adopt a massive austerity program and pay a huge 26% interest on the Greek two year bond at same time. Also China said has the inflation problem is under control - Premier Wen. This fueled the rally. However problems in China this AM

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +89.65 (above +30 somewhat overbought , above +60 overbought, above +90 OMG overbought) This is just a fraction from OMG overbought levels. 2009 was the last time the MO reached over +100 (twice) This began a long term bull run. Short term  overbought = Bearish

• $USD The Dollar stabilized after falling for a week. -0.06% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Short term tend for stocks now. Will stability hold? = Bullish/Neutral

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term  -OMG oversold levels will be reached in any stock rally. This put big pressure on rally to let off some steam. Repeat – Outside the HTF and Trading desks there are a bunch of normal day/swing traders who have missed the rally and are waiting to buy the first dip.

The 5 Day Bull Stampede

Long Term

weeks/months/years

• Still the risk of bad European debt and our own debt crisis confronting bulls. However, the silver lining investors see is low interest rates for a long time, a Fed managed US market and inflation fears diminishing in China and more time for banks in Europe cushion debt crisis. If there is a mediocre or poor jobs number (this Friday) this could even add oil to a burning hot fire that’s driving the bulls. Poor jobs = More Potential for Fed intervention and lower interest rates for a longer time.

• Bulls are back and they see a light at the end of a tunnel. If fundamentals in earnings season are decent (starts next week and earnings should do OK) we could go on a run. We are due for a overbought mini dip, but a move of this size off a double bottom in a very strong longer term bullish sign. As we switch from a temporary timeout in European debt to our own manufactured (July 22 deadline) debt crisis fundamentals matter. Still too early to raise NEUTRAL rating.

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Your Stock List

Paul has published to a spreadsheet of YSL #4 in the comments section of the blog.

Sorry many of you had problems with the old link

Like the past 3 YSL’s is beat the S&P 500 our benchmark S&P 500 again

A new YSL is under construction. If You are on the email List send in your choices to me this week.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Up  over 6% in six weeks and was held through the date that allows you to collect dividend. so add another 3% to 4% profit. = +10%

IMAX - Mea Culpa – As expected IMAX and 3D hit a major home run with the new Transformer’s movie over the weekend and I did NOT buy stock for Investors411 portfolio last Weekend. I would have sold IMAX into the Harry Potter movie July 15th.

Paul has published in the comments section (last week) some potential high growth buys

Short term strategy is to short overbought stocks. Bought 1/2 position in TZA near close Friday at 33.00.  MO closed at 89, just one point away from OMG oversold. Will sell quickly for a small gain.

Longer Term Strategy The 5 bulls is a major signal and there are many who missed the rally waiting to pile on.  We’re in NEUTRAL, but a possible positive senerio has appeared (see above)

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. (I’ve cut back on short ETF’s) – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

I very much like the position of going long High Growth Stocks (week to months and on dips) and/or longer term dividend plays – yet holding some sort of protection (preferably a Puts over a short term ETF that shorts) in case of sudden meltdowns.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

Paul is on break for a couple weeks, check Comments Section for a few weekly updates.

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

.

Why so many people who remember the past have problems with the right wing’s political agenda

Obviously we’re NOT going to punish the uber wealthy, unregulated free markets and greed that got us into this horrific mess.

No the right wing agenda is to force cuts ONLY on working class Americans.

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JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

More and more, US multinationals are laying off workers at home and hiring overseas.

What happened after the 2008 meltdown is globalized employers laid off workers in the USA. Term for this is disaster capitalism. They rehired them in other foreign countries.

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Lipstick on A Pig

Greece – Today the Greek parliament will vote on and probably approve austerity measured imposed by the IMF and European Banks. Germany’s leader has proclaimed “Greece will NOT be our Lehman Brothers.” Stocks should rally. But are we putting lipstick on  PIIGS

Here’s reality – The massive protestors outside parliament against this are all voters. Voters almost always vote their self interest and Greece is a democracy.

Greek parliament is made up of 303 seats and the ruling Socialists (PASOK) who favor the bailout have a thin majority of 155 seats. The #2 party, New Democracy (ND) has 86 seats. The ND other minor parties who are also against the bailout have less votes.

Two major polls show that instead of the 2 to 1 majority that the pro bailout party enjoys over the anti bailout ND party in Parliament, the ND party is now slightly ahead in popularity. All the other minor parties (Communist is the next largest) have also gained ground. One can easily infer that the Greek people by the level of anger (there is a two day strike now happening) and polling data that sooner or later this vast majority of anti bailout voters will gain power in Greece.

All the PIIGS countries in Europe face similar problems. Sure looks like its just a matter of time before the you know what hits the fan.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.91	Down
NASDQ	+1.33	Down
S&P 500	+0.93	Down
Russell 2000	+0.92	-

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

• The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +10.81 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months. Still closest to middle of range and plenty of room for bulls or bears to work with = Neutral

• $USD The Dollar fell  significantly -0.50% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. The dollar fell back after just barely making a short term high on its chart. Tend for stocks = Bearish

• Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term – From yesterday – “Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting. The whole roller coaster ride of the last two weeks is a big spring winding.”

• Chart of NASDQ – Today we may see some sort of short term breakout – we are far closer to upside breakout levels.

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Paul’s Corner

Gloom and Doom?

The market is down, much of our profits have disappeared  and there is no hope in sight, right? Well looking at market internals, there just may be some life left in the market. Ian Woodward posted a great blog this weekend and here are a few points to consider.

LINK

Ian includes charts to show how the market canaries (NFLX, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN) are performing.

The market is currently range bound between 2700 and 2600 on the NASDAQ. So consider 2700 as resistance and 2600 as support. If we go through 2700 on good volume the market is “probably” gonna keep going. If we drop through 2600 next obvious support is 2500, so watch these numbers closely.

One of the ways we follow the market is to look at  stocks ERG numbers to see which way the market is going. ERG refers to Earnings Per Share, Relative Strength, and Group Strength of the individual stock. Assigning a number between 1 and 99 to each of the ERG components you can evaluate the health of any stock relative to the rest of the market. A week ago we only had 13 stocks with an ERG number higher than 270, this week ended with 26. Although extremely low numbers, it still shows there are some quality stocks starting to move. Also the numbers of stocks with “A” accumulation ranking is improving.

I have been keeping an ERG list for years and it’s a very good confirming indicator for the market.

Last Thursday I posted a list of stocks that have done well through this correction and in his blog Ian lists a  group of 25 that are currently doing well. Between these two lists there are some good stocks to consider IF this market takes off.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

Paul has the full results and I will post them in the POSITION Section of the blog ASAP.

This time out we didn’t do as well as we would have liked, but the results were still positive. Both Paul and I will go over what worked and what failed this week to create a better YSL #5

Since WE have toasted  the experts and beaten the S&P 4 times in a row Paul has already called for a YSL #5. – Send in entries to me or post them on the comments section of the blog.

Send a sort list of  three  or less socks you think deserve consideration.  Paul and I will go over them and choose 12 to 15 that should again toast the S&P 500.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago. After a 5+% gain is has come down a bit last two days.

Gold /Silver Trade – These commodities usually move the opposite direction of the dollar. Dollar is going up (mostly because European outlook is bleak) so gold/silver is going down.

Shorting Banks - one major reason major banks are underperforming stocks is that the Fed will on June 30th stop purchasing treasuries from them. This and mortgage problems have have led this sector down. There are some signs (three weeks of flat trading)  that a short term bottom has been reached (see link above)

Repeat longer Strategy remains - Waiting for MO to hit overbought levels before acting

• Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
• Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are resolved.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

The NEUTRAL in the forecast will vanish If/when we break the recent lows of the S&P 500 chart

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

Last blog for the week. Hope to be back Monday or Tuesday

From Huffington Post – Japan

Japan’s Reactor Crisis – NYT today has a comprehensive  article – U.S. Sees Array of New Threats at Japan’s Nuclear Plant Many Kudos to JS, Popeye. Yankee Bob and Jim J who have kept us up to date on this in the comment section of blog.

CBO on Republican Budget Cuts. – The non partisan Congressional Budget Office analysis of Republican Paul Ryan’s budget cut proposals. From Business Insider’s Dean Baker - “Representative Ryan Proposes Medicare Plan Under Which Seniors Would Pay Most of Their Income for Health Care” Proposed title if we had a “independent press” and people read the “CBO report“

Green Energy – “If someone told you there was a way you could save 2.5 million to 3 million lives a year and simultaneously halt global warming, reduce air and water pollution and develop secure, reliable energy sources – nearly all with existing technology and at costs comparable with what we spend on energy today – why wouldn’t you do it?

Maybe its improbable, but thought this was worth a look – Researchers from Stanford & UC says- “The world can be powered by alternative energy, using today’s technology, in 20-40 years”

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Stocks

• Not much happened. Market rallied in AM boosted by Fed Pomo and fell in PM when Fed minutes said majority of members did not want QE #3 right now.
• Lots of this type of editorial about second guessing the Fed abound.  The Fed does Rule or is the Manipulator in Chief. This one is interesting
• Many of the ETF’s mentioned yesterday are at highs. Preferable to wait for a dip to buy

Reading The Tea Leaves

Longer Term Bottom Line – No Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market. So bulls rule

Shorter term Bottom Line - McClellan Oscillator shows moderate overbought US equities, so there is resistance to moving higher. Better entry points with lower MO

Market Movers to watch today - Same list with UUP (the dollar) still has most influential, unless others make some huge move.

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bearish
• Japan Rector Developments – This keeps getting worse.
• EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended.

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Your Stock List #4

Your Stock List is about a month old and links/charts to each stock can be found in the POSITIONS section of the blog (scroll down) Paul has analyzed each stock and Monitor has researched the earning date of each stock. Below is their results. You can find this and other stock information in the daily comments section of the Investors411 blog – In my opinion, nobody’s perfect and, Paul is right far more than he’s wrong. –

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

From Paul

YSL 4 Comments April 5 Close, my opinion and I’m usually wrong!

SAP hold, buy on any pull back
RVBD not buyable
ADTN not buyable basing
CPHD hold, buy on any pull back
BEXP hold, buy on any pull back
SWKS not buyable basing
ALTR buyable
ABC hold, buy on any pull back
IMAX Extended
PCLN Extended
POT hold, buy on any pull back
JNPR basing buy above the 50
BIDU hold, buy on any pull back
KSU buyable
SPRD not buyable

From Monitor

Here’s the earnings reporting date of YSL #4 companies.

SAP 1/26 would assume @ 4/26
RVBD 4/25AMC
ADTN 4/13
CPHD 4/20
BEXP 4/29
SWKS 4/20
ALTR 4/26AMC
ABC 4/28
IMAX 2/24 would assume @ 5/24
PCLN 5/9
POT 1/27 would assume @4/27
JNPR 1/25 AMC would assume @4/25
BIDU 4/25
KSU 4/21 BMO
SPRD 3/3AMC would assume @6/3 AMC

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Japan – TEPCO in Japan has finally called for outside help. Even Greenpeace is on the ground saying their readings differ from TEPCO’s (science over politics) Common Dreams web site has a fascinating  real time tweeter updates TEPCO admits protracted and uncertain operation to contain crisis. Here the short version of the best video yet on the tsunami

Taxes –  GE made $14.2 billion in profits last year and over $5 billion in the USA. Guess how much they paid in taxes last year year Wait for it, Wait for it,  Wait for it – ZERO.  Now remember your taxes are due by April 15. Only in America

Financial Reform – Seems that virtually all Republicans and some Democrats are doing everything possible to make sure that those too big to fail shadow banks that destroy the meager measures the Dodd/Frank Bill put in place. The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday

Libya – This call may be premature, but it looks like after the allied/UN air strike many who supported Ka Daffy are changing sides. At least his army in the eastern 1/2 of the country has melted away. Al Jazeera reports no resistance to rebels in his home town. Huffington Post live blog

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Here’s the chart that demonstrates what Investors411 has been saying  since last year and why the Bulls Rule in our liquidity driven Fed manipulated stock market. (I realize most of you are sick of me saying the above again and again, but NOW is the opportunity to profit from this)

• This chart was done by Kevin McCElroy from Seeking Alpha.
• Want to know more? – Impact of POMO on Dollar by LFB from SA

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	+0.41%	down
NASDQ	+0.24%	down
S&P 500	+0.32%	down
Russell 2000	+0.83%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally on Friday.
• On the surface it looks like the rag tag exuberant bunch called rebels in Libya are winning, because oncee air strikes clobbered exposed military units resistance became almost non existent – For stock = bullish. For oil = Bearish For Ka Daffy = Bearish
• Black Swans (Big event bad news) everywhere. From John Nyaradi on this week’s outlook in stocks. Remember bad news is more often than not an elixir for stocks because it means a stronger possibility of more quantitative easing.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.74% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three day bull run For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +24.38 Getting oversold. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30 = Bearish /Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

The Bulls have had a stellar 7 day run in weak volume. (weak volume rally= calling card of a liquidity driven manipulated market)  They are starting to come up against some technical resistance that may slow them down – A rising dollar and the MO nearing overbought levels. “Merger” Monday  has historically been the best day of the week. If Ka Daffy supporters don’t have the stomach for a fight you could see rally continue. The however  perversely good news (lower oil prices if Ka Daffy looses) may turn out negative because it would mean less of a chance of QE ##

Short term rising dollar and oversold levels should hold bulls back this week.

War room

Every major group of traders is sitting in their war rooms discussing the end of QE #2 (quantitative easing) and how it will impact markets before/on/after June 30th (ending date)

Will the Fed do a QE #3? Since we have over 3 months till this happens bulls should rule unless too many traders front run what they perceive is the end of quantitative easing. Frankly, there are whole mess of investors out there who believe there will be a QE #3.

So best read of tea leaves is still bullish till June 30th. More low volume rallies. (see chart above)

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
• Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

UWM – - Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. - approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversly to the dollar

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Your Stock List seems to be turning the corner and has 5 breakout stocks

3 of the 4 major indexes are above their 50 DMA’s and the NASDQ is sitting on its 50 DMA.

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YOUR Stock List

Stock list #4 is here.

Paul and I have finally finished. The first three “YOUR Stock Lists” clobbered the benchmark S&P 500. See POSITIONS section of blog for the new list and past results. (scroll down)

Although results will be tabulated from today to some point 1 to 3+ months in the future, the worst thing you could do is enter all positions at once. Investors411 has a “buy the dip” strategy for trending stocks. All chosen stocks are in a positive bullish trend. Here’s  a list (some of these points are repeated in the POSITION Section) of some relevant points.

• A preferable time to enter  these stocks is when the MO is at or below -30 (see McClellan Index below) MO currently near zero, which is neutral.
• Don’t chase stocks that are too far above their 17 & 50 DMA. How to judge this is to look at how high the stock got above its 50DMA (blue line on chart) in the past six months and if its near or above those levels don’t buy. The same for 17DMA (green line on chart) Some stocks are over extended now some are not.
• The list of stocks is broad, but a bit heavy in technology.
• This list should out perform in a bull market but could underperform in a bear market relative to S&P 500.
• Its NOT a list of the top momentum growth stocks, but solid liquid growth stocks that have a diversity of proven bullish chart patterns and sectors. Its aggressive but, not too aggressive.
• It seems the major factor behind stock manipulation (Fed’s quantitative easing) is coming to an abrupt end on June 30th. Investors will be front running the removal of liquidity. In other words the will get out of Dodge ( the stock market) before the event occurs. So the risk is far greater in this stock list than others.

Most of these 14 stocks were chosen/submitted by YOU or are from the past YSL #3. Paul & I added a couple. Paul R often makes comments on YSL in the comments section of the blog. You can look there for more in depth analysis and filters on YSL #4.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index	Percentage	Volume
Dow	-0.72%	up
NASDQ	-0.50%	down
S&P 500	-0.74%	up
Russell 2000	-0.47%	-

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

• Some entity manipulated a save at the close as stocks managed to cut 1/2 the losses.
• Even with oil crude oil rising another 2.50%, markets, thanks to the Fed tsunami of liquidity, fell only @0.50%
• Risks Abound, But S&P 500 Up Trend Still in Place – Excellent piece of analysis of our manipulated stock and other world markets by Richard Shaw
• The dollar is one of Investors411′s Forecasting tools . Traders ‘Short’ Dollar as Currency Loses Attraction Therefore, this editorial from the Financial Times is especially relevant.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell again. Its fallen 10 of last 14 days. This time -0.10% Friday . Oil prices now are by far the #1 forecasting index (see below) For stocks dollar short term trading pattern = Bullish
• McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to  +2.35. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. MO Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

From Friday – The McClellan Index has worked almost flawlessly over the past few months. Check out the chart above. Therefore, with the MO at+25, in the short term we are probably very near a top. Longer term trend is still with the bulls. – It was a short term top.

All eyes on oil prices. However manipulated US equities holding up pretty well despite higher oil prices.

I realize that many experts (who are far more experienced than me) see the markets moving lower. But, I still view the tsunami of liquidity provided by our Fed/Central Bank as being able to sustain the rally for now.  That’s been the case for months and I’m sticking with CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH till we have some technical evidence of stocks toasting.

Obviously as stated above its a bubble, but so far no clear sign that its about to burst. Declines can be swift and dramatic so be vigilant.

What to watch today

• USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down
• UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Clear 2 month pattern of bears ruling Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
• AAPL - Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. Back approaching new high

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Positions

A 5% trailing stop today on both REMX & RJA today.

5% trailing stop on UCO & UWM today.

Two active considerations today DGP & DBC.

One strategy of Investors411 is to take 5+% profits on 1/2 the position and let the rest ride.

Will post when I buy/sell in comments section of blog.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) . Set to follow silver and approaching breakout. Broke out to new all time high and has started to pull back. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs. Buy the dip to 17 DMA

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

Mea Culpa – Both DGP & DBC are on breakout runs and should have been bought earlier. Investors was all talk and never pulled the trigger on the trade. An obvious mistake.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”