Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 9, 2010

Facts & Targets

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Those of you who are on the private email list got the news yesterday that YOUR Stock List was up +23.7% since February 10th. (38 trading days) More below under KISS & Stocks. [If you'd like to be on this email list you can find my email under Home/Editor]

bulleye

Targeted

was the headline on the major Left of Center Blog the Huffington Post & a front page story in the WaPo this AM. It referred to the threefold increase in threats to congress. This Intimidation and more was covered yesterday.

Bottom Line – The Intimidators or Bullies are winning because instead of having rational discussion of the facts behind health care, our financial system, economics, jobs, forgotten wars – all we have is the “entertainers” from FOX News encouraging intimidation because it makes money.  The left wing justifiably responding. But lost in all this is the facts and our ability to be civil to each other.

The last 2/3 of this video (Chris Matthew’s – MSNBC) deals with some of the facts rather than the shouting & threats that gets over covered on heath care. Investors411 is going to focus on some of the facts next week like the one below from Congresswomen Debbie Wassermann Schultz. (see video)(photo below from CBS)

Debbie Wasserman Schultz

“No one is going to force you to have health care.”You will be treated differently on your tax form if you do not have health care – just like married/unmarried people, renters/homeowners, kids/no kids etc.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.27% down
NASDQ +0.23% down
S&P 500 +0.34% down
Russell 2000 +0.03% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Another up day as volume decreases. Tired of telling you historically volume is the #1 confirmation factor behind a price move and this market is therefore acting irrationally.  However that’s the trend, and the trend is your friend.

Our #2 factor -how markets are reacting to news is bullish. Markets seem to be reacting positively to good news and negative news only slightly halts progress.

Earnings week starts next week and Mondays are usually the best day of the week. So expect some short term traders to get long today to cash in on the Monday trend.

Eli Hoffmann picture

Ed Hoffman (photo above) is one of the better editors at Seeking Alphahere’s how he sees Friday and the near term future

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell  to -9.81 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – This is still NEUTRAL territory – technically neither overbought or oversold.
  • US Dollar – basically flat  -0.02% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Dollar closed at $81.54 and the line in the sand resistance level is @ $82.2 Closing above this level and moving higher would be negative for stocks. Mantra -right now The Dollar Rules

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

+23.7% Profit in 38 days

Before we go over these figures and answer there are 3 important points.

  • Caution Don’t let it go to your head. For the most part these stocks were chosen when the US markets were oversold, other reasons, plus we were lucky
  • Many many many thanks to Paul R for this data and contributing lots of stocks on the list
  • Re-read points 1 & 2

The dumbest thing you could do go out any buy on the stocks on this week’s list.  Your Stock List – you send in the stocks – many are fine stocks, but only some get chosen for technical analysis because I do not have the time to go over a list bigger than 10 to 15 stocks.

Question’s answered.

  • No Investors411 is NOT turning into a day or swing traders site. The basic formula of following trends will NOT change. IMAX’s 54.3% gain was the top stock on the list. It following an understandable trend in 3D technology.
  • Yes you can copy or find old copies of the list usually each Tuesday (Wed. this week) by using the calendar at the top of the blog.
  • Yes you can give a copy to your broker or file them in a circular container.
  • I  can’t stress enough to learn something about technical analysis and have a fundamental concept of why your stock will be higher in six months.
  • For a list of stocks Paul used to compute this see comments section on the right hand side.

Because your choices are mostly high beta stocks or those that are growing faster than others certain conditions must exist to put the odds more in YOUR favor.

  • A bull market
  • Oversold conditions – Investors uses the McClellan Oscillator or as Monitor named it the Mickey O. The more oversold the better.
  • In general technically the stock has to be dipping, consolidating, or breaking out. (Its not quite this simple)

Our form of  unregulated capitalism has negatively impacted trends.  These trends are reestablishing themselves. The major technical trend now in US stocks is we went too far to the downside and will probably go too far to the upside.  The cloud and cause over all of this is the lack of regulation. This pattern will repeat itself until fixed.

Individual stocks are riskier and what Investors411 will try to do is to cut down on that risk.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 16, 2010

YOUR stock list

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Volcker Rule Dodd Bill

Is the Volker Rule Dead?

Sorry all my time was spent putting an analysis of YOUR stocks together. Many of these stocks have gone up over +20% in the last few weeks. Congradulations! Here’s and interesting editorial on above topic.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.16% down
NASDQ -0.23% down
S&P 500 +0.05% down
Russell 2000 -0.32% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Flat day in weak volume again. US markets are consolidating.  Consolidating (trading in a tight flat range) is good and usually good for bulls and generally means the trend will continue. The monkey wrench here is that there was little increased volume behind the move higher.

Fearless Forecast for Week – Because we now are not oversold (see below) and the earlier move higher had such momentum behind it look for a rally or up week. (Sorry spent time answering questions and did not do the usual Monday forecast)

Last week’s fearless forecast “momentum should make this an up, but volatile week.” Not so volatile, but certainly an up week.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell a again to +30.02 yesterday. We now well under +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. Two weeks ago week the NYMO reached a high of 75.33.
  • BDI - The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in late Feb. & early March. After flattening for a few days last week it is still moving higher = Bulls rule
  • USDThe Dollar regained almost all of what it lost on Friday.  In the past there has been a strong correlation between a falling dollar and a rising US stock market. Right now the dollar is back within its consolidation pattern = Neutral for stocks

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From Friday “Shorter term traders – Bought a 10% (Of portfolio) position in TYH at 151.50. Put stop at that 151.5 and may sell 1/2 for 3 to 5% gain hopefully today. TYH closed at 154.99 – Sold 1/2 TYH at 156,oo for +3% gain Friday AM and got stopped out yesterday at151.5 for a 0% gain

YOUR Stock List

The McClellan Oscillator has fallen from Oversold (over +60) to near neutral territory +30. In past Updates I mentioned I’d nibble on some of these stocks as the NYMO came close to +20. The best time to buy are when conditions are oversold or at/below -60. It all depends on Your individual level of risk as to when you buy. The lower the NYMO goes the less the risk. So for those who can tolerate lots of risk you could nibble a little

NB -Last Week’s comments in black. This week’s violet. Chart links underlined in Blue

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS Ever since this stock was put on list it has gone up big time. A buy the dip stock Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock
  • PCLN Dipped last week and now in rally mode A buy the dip stock Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock
  • F Too over extended or above 50 day Moving Average. Still going up, but too overextended – wait
  • IMAX Investors411 owns this stock – Went elliptically higher and now must find base. wait
  • CSCO, Like AAPL at new high this year. For longer term investor. A buy the dip stock. exploded higher, now consolidating A buy the dip stock
  • SHOOtraded flat after breakoutin consolidation A buy the dip stock failed breakout but still has potential
  • ICON, Broke out and is on run higher. Too over extended now.Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock
  • VPRT Did break out. A little overextended. A buy the dip stock Fallen in heavy volume = bearishWait
  • DGIT Thinly traded  Consolidating, A buy the dip stock Still consolidating in weak volume = bullish A buy the dip stock
  • CTCT Thinly traded but Good volume and another breakout A buy the dip stock Exploded higher too overextened wait
  • VCI Another breakout, over extended Tempting, but risky starting to consolidate Still Tempting, but risky
  • CREE Starting to Dip A buy the dip stock. dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock
  • SNDK Dipped then moved higher. Too over extended dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock
  • VSH Consolidating and now looking better, a little over extended Tempting dipped/fell in moderate volume. Tempting
  • HMIN Falling Too much downside volume

New

  • RINO - Brokeout yesterday in heavy volume = bullish – a buy the dip stock
  • CTRPFaces a resistance level & just dipped in weak volume a buy the dip stock
  • CNAM Went elliptical now finding base. Huge risk but huge reward Wait

New plays that have similar 3d fundamentals as IMAX.

  • DWA (Dreamworks) Lots of upcoming kids 3d movies. Consolidating but some big down volume days - wait
  • CNK (Cinemark) Theater chain building 3d theaters. Still a bit over extended – Tempting
  • RGC (Regal Entertainment) just broke out again. Too overextended wait for dip.- Tempting

Bottom Line – there are a whole mess of decent stocks to choose from. We are no longer in oversold territory so less risk averse folks may want to nibble. The more oversold the general markets get the better all of these stocks look. My top picks are anything that says = bullish a buy the dip stock. Caution here is I’m only looking at these stocks technically. I would hope you do some fundamental research before buying.

There are two reasons many of your choices went up.

  1. You choose wisely.
  2. We went from below -60 (oversold on the McClellan Oscillator) to over + 60. (overbought.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 9, 2010

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Bob Herbert- NYT

Jobs, Jobs Jobs

Agree with NYT’s Bob Herbert, “Obama’s Source of Trouble” is Jobs. The Obama administration from the start has underestimated the depth of this recession and its underlying causes. The end result – JOB LOSS in the USA.

Unfortunately, research on YOUR stock picks takes time, and I’ve run out.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.13% down
NASDQ +0.25% down
S&P 500 -0.02% down
Russell 2000- +0.16% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Lightest trading day of the year.  Markets went no where.  Basically, this is a slight positive for bulls, because it means Friday’s rally held.

CSCO has some big announcement today – 11:00AM EST – Usually stocks run up before major announcements and investors sell the news.

NASDQ reached a new yearly high in weak volume. Think the benchmark S &P 500 has at least one more push to a new high this week or next. Then it should pull back. Longer term Outlook Cautiously Bullish.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator dropped a bit to +68.29 yesterday. We are still well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK.
  • BDI – The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule Yesterday the BDI, like stocks leveled off in front of a strong resistance level.
  • USDThe US Dollar has been range bound for about a month after moving significantly higher. Early Dec the dollar bottomed at $74+ and is now at $80+. There are some pluses and minuses to the strengthening dollar. For US stocks the fact that they and the dollar are near highs together is Bullish

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Since the McClellan Oscillator over +60, or overbought – buying right now is far more dangerous than when markets are oversold. I’m waiting till we get around +20 just to  nibble some more on some of  these stocks. Most stocks move with the overall markets. YOUR decision on when to trade is also based on how long you are going to hold the stock and YOUR level of risk.

If you are considering individual stocks I strongly urge you look at the charts and learn something about technical analysis.

NB -Last Week’s comments in black. This week’s violet. Charts underlined in Blue

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS volume confirming rally – A buy the dip stock. Ever since this stock was put on list it has gone up big time. A buy the dip stock
  • PCLN Breakout 5.22% move yesterday in good volume – A buy the dip stock Dipped last week and now in rally mode A buy the dip stock
  • F Breakout 5.71% yesterday in good volume – A buy the dip stock. Too over extended or above 50 day Moving Average.
  • IMAX Investors411 owns this stock – Broke out to new high. Up +8.16 yesterday. A buy the dip stock
  • CSCO, Slower steadier more for longer term investor. Like AAPL at new high this year. For longer term investor. A buy the dip stock
  • SHOO, A 4.02% breakout in good volume yesterday – A buy the dip stock – traded flat after breakoutin consolidation A buy the dip stock
  • ICON, Has formed a series of higher lows & higher highs – A buy the dip stock Broke out and is on run higher. Too over extended now.
  • VPRT Up +2.49% yesterday in what could be a breakout – A buy the dip stock – Did break out. A little overextended. A buy the dip stock
  • DGIT Thinly traded A buy the dip Consolidating A buy the dip stock
  • CTCT Building on higher highs and higher lows – Buy the dip Thinly traded but Good volume and another breakout A buy the dip stock
  • VCI Dipped and has made up most of that loss, but in weak volume Tempting, but risky Another breakout, over extended Tempting, but risky
  • CREE -  Too overextended to buy now - A buy the Dip stock Starting to Dip A buy the dip stock
  • SNDK. Overextended now but Buy the Dip stock Dipped then moved higher. Too over extended
  • VSH. On another breakout,but in weak volume and overextended -  Too risky. Consolidating and now looking better, a little over extended Tempting
  • HMINUp 4.02% yesterday in breakout, but weak volume. Too Risky Falling Too much downside volume

I like PCLN, VPRT, & SHOO because I understand what they do (buy their products), not because they are technically superior to the other stocks on this list. F (Ford) has just gone up too much. Personally, even though many of these are tempting, I’m waiting till conditions are more favorable to buy.

I would buy dips in IMAX. Thanks to two of you for reminding me they have their earnings report on the 11th. Alice in Wonderland has confirmed people will pay a premium for 3D movies.  With 3D TV’s already being sold and a 3D channel coming I think it clearly going to grow.

Bottom Line - Right now thinking more about selling (taking profits) than opening new positions because of short term over bought conditions.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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December 23, 2009

Market Updates – March On Washington

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Guest Editorial – A Call to Arms

1960 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom

Let’s march on Washington! – By Bob Sadinsky

What good does it do to keep calling or writing to your spineless legislators! For decades now starting with the Vietnam War,public opinion has been aligned with stated Democratic positions but the GOP with help from ConservaDems has thwarted  Progressive issues. The GOP has fought tooth and nail to prevent,Unionism,the 8 hour work day,overtime, Equal pay for equal work.  They fought to deny health insurance for decades and seat belts and mining regulations. They defanged OSHA and the EPA and beat back the ERA! They fought against Medicare and Social Security,viciously. Nixon actually ran as a peace candidate for his second term. He promised to end the war and then he tried to obliterate SouthEast Asia and only ended the war when we had actually lost.

The GOP revisionists today  like,the swiftboaters ,say we lost because we lacked the political will to win. They can’t answer simple questions like what was our strategic interest there and why did you ask Johnny to fight and to die there?  Kerry tried to do that and the press allowed the swiftboaters to make the real War Hero look like a wimp  and a traitor next to Bush and Cheney,the draft dodgers. No one can answer that today about Afghanistan or Iraq yet we are again expanding an unpopular war! The GOP has been so wrong for so long,it’s amazing they are still around.

Unless it violates someone’s rights,in a democracy like ours,the public sentiment of the majority should rule! It doesn’t!! Oh,I’m wrong. If you have enough money to spend you can legislate to strip a hated minority of their basic human rights under the Bill of Rights! Today it’s Gays. Tomorrow,it’s you!

Bush and Cheney declared you are with us or against us and proceeded to muzzle our rights. They demonized the Press. The Right Wing Liberals demonize Liberalism and Progressives. Their ability to turn the US into a Fascist State,….grows. I shudder to think what will happen when the Dems lose Congress the next time. I don’t think the Dems will be left with the ability to filibuster to prevent draconian measures.

Progressives and Liberals have to take to the streets or we will be marginalized and swept aside! Use your voices before we lose the ability to do so.

Bob, an old friend and fellow artist, is a frequent critic/commentor to Investors411. Read his comments on right hand side of blog.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that only got 1 recommendation. I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

  • MVIS Microvision Inc. – This stock has gone all the way from below 1 in March to above 5 and has settled at just above 3. This is exactly where its 200 day moving average support line is. MVIS (laser projection devices for head mounted displays & hand held devices) is at its inflection point and I don’t know enough about the fundamentals to even make a guess on their future. However technically there has recently been one strong volume rally day and that’s bullish.
  • SEED – Origin Agritech LTD – Talk about shooting up. SEED, a top player in the seed industry in China went from 5 to 14 in late Nov. in truly massive volume on mews of its genetically modified corn being approved in China. It has  now settled at @10. Really tempting buy the dip opportunity. Still a long way from 50 day moving average at @7.5. This stock often mentioned with another – FEED
  • NVS – Novartis – Drug maker that Investors411 owned.  The swine flu added to the value of this European stock. We got out at the high and NVS dropped and is now flat. Rising dollar may be hurting the stock price since this is a European company. Done for now – too many other fish in the sea.
  • FCX – Freeport McMoran – Copper and Gold – Basically a commodity or China play. Copper and Gold supplier. This big company has outperformed China and gold. I’d rather own the ETF that tracks copper, but a decent play. Right now it has retreated from high and forming a base.

Some of the stocks from yesterday and today may be hidden gems for traders. Tomorrow – The stocks that got more than 1 vote

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.50% down
NASDQ +0.67% down
S&P500 +0.36% down
Russell2000- +0.81% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks rose for the second day in a row despite a rising dollar. Bullish news for stocks despite weak volume. Traders, more and more, look like they are coming around to the belief that we will have a V shaped recovery in the USA.  Emerging markets in the shorter term led the world. Now the USA seems to be the locomotive.

Caution – These are not big games and especially VOLUME is weak. However, the cumulative move is bullish especially for USA. Short term bullish move here will positively impact world.

McClellan Oscillator at +31 (“a bit overbought” – see below) gives us some wiggle room for stocks to move higher before we reach overbought levels of +60 = Santa Clause Rally caps

A Santa Clause Rally strictly defined is the period after Xmas till 2 days into New Year, Historically S&P 500 is up 1.5% in this period since 1960

NB – There is an important distinction between short term traders and long term investors

FEARLESS FORECAST Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade & China ). -91 yesterday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart) Right now the BDI is in free fall and this is not good for emerging markets & especially China. World trade is decelerating as the dollar rises. Perhaps a new link between the rising dollar and falling BDI is establishing itself.  (see 8/18 explanation  of fundamentals behind falling dollar)

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now breaking down as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.26% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $78.28 . The dollar is breaking down as a predictor of stock movement. Stocks are moving higher on a stronger dollar. The second day in a row, = Bullish for stocks

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +31,30 This is a bit Overbought Position. We have a ways to go till we reach overbought (+60). This means rally could continue for at least a few more days.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Big Mistake – Back on 12/8 (click on calendar date on top right of blog and scroll down) Investors411 announced to buy IWM & UWM (@2x what the IWM does). For some reason (too busy with other stuff) I never pulled the trigger on this trade. Big Mistake! Both indexes track small cap stocks and the UWM is up 10%+ & IWM 5%+ .

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move. Traders (not investors) may be able squeeze in a quick trade on the above UWM or IWM if we get a short dip.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 22, 2009

Market Updates – Santa Clause Rally?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

A Santa Clause Rally for stocks?

YOUR Questions on Health Care

The NYT has come out with its editorial supporting the Senate Health Care Bill. You may disagree with the Times or Nate Silver (See Bob Sadinsky’s comments on right of blog)  but they have the facts. They do omit some of the downside and you can post your objections in the comments section. New York Times takes a clear position – ” A Bill Well Worth Passing LINK

YOUR questions (see D’s comments onside of blog)

  • “Cadillac” Plans – These are the plans that cover virtually everything and have (almost) no co pays. I believe they are above $8,500 a year for an individual & $23,500 for a family. They are going to get taxed.
  • Cuts in Medicare – There is fraud and waste in medicare. An NPR debate on this revealed the following on home health care providers. Obviously home health care saves money  because it often prevents nursing home stays. Example(s) There are now @ 10,000 home health care companies – 800 alone sprang up in Houston About 1/2 of all insulin injections in homes (3 times a day) are now done in Dade County Florida. 1/2 of insulin dependent elderly or disabled diabetics don’t live there. These major anomalies show that some are CHEATING the system. The list went on.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that only got 1 recommendation.

  • HMIN Hotel Inns And Hotels Management – Discount hotels in China – China is growing and this is a discount hotel chain that’s growing faster. Chart shows after a rally HMIN has formed a base. If/when FXI moves higher HMIN should do even better. On chart notice all the big volume spikes on up days = bullish
  • CAAS China Automotive Systems – Another small cap China stock. Remember the Chinese now buy more cars than Americans. Small caps usually outperform in any rally. This chart is pulling back to its 5o day moving average and that is a buy the dip opportunity.
  • VPRT Vistaprint - You happened to picked the company that does my business card’s.  My wife thinks they are the best deal out there. Chart shows and a rising blue line (50 day moving average) and that’s always good. A recent dip makes it a buy the dip opportunity. Volume getting weaker is not a good sign.
  • SHOO Steve Madden – Shoes – Apparent the shoes to buy right now. Again lots of those green volume spike bars on chart. This shows some institutions are buying
  • FSLR . First Solar – Solar technology and building a huge plant in Mongolia (China) Just about every analyst who follows alternative energy has something to say about FSLR. Chart not in clear upward trend as above 4 stocks. Perhaps a good buy because of China connection but right now weak technically
  • GE - General Electric Industrial giant – Basically, so big it follows US markets. Chart shows consolidation pattern right now. Under performing US markets right now.

Ran out of time – more tomorrow – For those of you who love the danger of individual stock picks the top 4 should do well if markets move higher.

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.83% down
NASDQ +1.28% down
S&P500 +1.05% down
Russell2000- +1.32% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks are rising despite a rising dollar. We almost had a significant rise in both the dollar (+0.41% ) and a barely significant (above 1.00% ) rise inmost major stock indexes. Volume decreased.  Yes this a market that is NOT making new highs (NASDQ & S&P 500) in GROWING volume.  That’s troubling and indicates an expanding bubble – unless we can grow volume.  However the relationship between the dollar and stocks is breaking down in a positive manner for stocks. They are both RISING = Bullish for stocks

McClellan Oscillator at +25 (see below) gives us some wiggle room for stocks to move higher before we reach overbought levels of +60 = Santa Clause Rally caps

FEARLESS FORECAST Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade& China) . -104 yesterday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart)

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The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.41% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.75

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +25.17 This is a little Overbought Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Positions section of blog was updated over weekend.  44+% Invested in stocks -

  • FXI (China) 18% (selling 6% into any rally – 24- 6=18% – see Friday’s update)Still holding on
  • EWZ (Brazil 16%)
  • MOO (agriculture (10)%

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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