Investors 411 Blog

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Terrorist Plot Attack

Yes, there was a horrific subway attack in Russia, but front pages everywhere in the USA did NOT report on the 9 terrorists caught in our country. They were, according to charges, picked up for “Seditious Conspiracy, Attempted, Use of WMD’s…Plot to Attack Police” and other charges.

If this group was Gay, Muslim, Jewish, Black, Mexican, or some other minority it would have been headline news in American media.  But these were white Christian militia terrorists and the media in the USA looked the other way.

Blatant Biased and Bigoted – The American media fear mongers what it wants and stories about Christian terrorists being arrested are just ignored because they are Christian.

Another example – the BBC last weekend headlined and uncovered a massacre of over 300 people by the LRA (another Christian terrorist group – often called the Lord’s Christian Army) in the Congo. Europe heard all about it. Did you see any American media pick up on the story?

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Check out comments section of blog – Both Critic & Ewanapat have some very relevant fundamentals about IMAX & 3D stocks.

Throwing up your hands in frustration is not the answer. Technically, its hard to tell what’s holding up US equities. We had another day when volume (the #1 confirmation factor of a price move) fell as stocks rallied.  There has NO conviction/volume behind stocks for many moons. This week is continuing the low volume quarterly pattern

Holiday weeks (Easter) usually bring lighter volume. Its also the end of the quarter and money managers like to buy hot stocks to show their clients in their quarterly reports. The job’s picture is supposedly better. So why does there continue to be no volume behind rallies? What’s holding up stocks technically?

On individual stock technical analysis using volume is still sound, but it is irrational for US equities as a whole.  Same prediction/Fearless Forecast hold for rest of week.

The dollar is the index to watch. It goes up = stocks go down. It goes down = stocks go up. A new high for the dollar would be bad for stocks.

Significant Indexes

• McClellan Oscillator rose to -3.92 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – We right in the middle so NO clear signal. However we are still in bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
• US Dollar – fell s -0.40% yesterday. The two day drop of -1.09% takes some of the pressure off the dollar’s breakout to higher levels. What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. The dollar has risen 10% since Dec.. This means that US & China (their money is pegged to ours) exports are 10% more expensive to the rest of the world. A higher dollar,therefore, puts real negative pressure on stocks and an economic recovery.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

YOUR Stock List

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday, you’ll find a lot of winners. One way to back check this is to use the calender at the top of the blog – click on past Tuesdays.

Caution- This is just technical analysis and lots of other factors enter into a decision to buy or sell

NB -Last Week’s comments in black. This week’s violet. Chart links underlined in Blue

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

• CAAS –  Some increase volume behind dip, but at strong support level - A risky Chinese company, but its now or never time to buy the dip. If you bought you won. Made higher high on chart. Pullback due.
• PCLN –  Still consolidating after breakout - A buy the dip stock If you bought you won Consolidation due.
• F –  Huge sell off last week and strong but less volume rally yesterday -Too risky Looks like its running out of gas – too much downside volume – wait
• IMAX . Made a strong move yesterday and broke out of  short term consolidation pattern - A buy the Dip Stock If you bought you won Overextended now, but you know the story – buy the dip.
• CSCO, Seems too over extended from 50 day moving average, but clearly a market leader - Will move with technology. Another winner, but weak volume suggest top is near – Wait
• SHOO – Consolidating in what looks like cup & handle trading pattern - A buy the dip stock HUGE winner – way too over extended to buy now, but buy a reasonable sized dip.
• ICON,  Failed breakout back in consolidation pattern - Potential, but too risky. Another winner. Retreated yesterday in weak volume = bullish. A buy the dip stock.
• VPRT Consolidated and made a move yesterday - Possible breakout candidate. Breakdown in heavy volume.
• DGIT - A bunch of higher lows over last month in “ascending wedge” pattern & at its resistance level - Potential breakout stock Pullback in weak volume is bullish. Another chance at breakout, but risky.
• VCI Big fall/volume Friday partial recovery yesterday - too risky  Dip in weak volume = bullish. Faces resistance, but potential breakout candidate.
• CREE –  Still consolidating a buy the dip stock. Still consolidating in weak volume near high = bullish. A potential breakout candidate. Still a buy the dip stock.
• SNDK – .   Dipped last week and major rally yesterday A buy the dip stock Another Winner. now consolidating  A buy the dip stock.
• VSH – .   Strong volume on down days -Weakening Too much big volume behind down days.
• CTRP – Dipped in weak volume last week, rallied off support level - a buy the dip stock HUGE winner – Decent volume at new high. Over extended, but buy the dip
• CNAM Fall in weak volume, two day rally in strong volume – Big risk China stock, but potential big reward. If you got guts a buy the dip play. Breakout failed, now consolidating. Again more risky, but buy the dip

New plays that have similar 3d fundamentals as IMAX. Personally I’m more comfortable with this group because I believe in the fundamentals behind 3d technology. Some fundamental analysis included. Problem with these are their sales are not pure 3d plays.

• DWA (Dreamworks) Think their new Dragon 3D movie will be a success and move this stock up. Dragon’s did not live up to expectations. Big volume behind downside move. Only for short term players who want to buy elliptical downside bounce.
• CNK (Cinemark)  Still a bit over extended – Tempting Consolidated over week & broke out of that pattern yesterday. A buy the Dip Stock Winner that has dipped yesterday Think weekend Titan’s movie will bomb and hurt box office. Careful, but still buy the dip.
• RGC (Regal Entertainment) Too overextended wait for dip.- Tempting Just keeps moving higher  Dipped last two days. Same fundamental problem of Titans, but better movies coming up.  Still buy further dips.

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. New group

• ESRX (Express Scripts) – (see yesterday’s blog) Investors411 own this stock. - Broke out, now a bit over extended wait for dip. Rally yesterday, but weak volume makes it a risky buy the dip.
• TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) Gone elliptical - wait for dip. Now dipping in reduced volume = bullish. A buy the dip stock.

Analysis – WOW – Look at all those buy the dip stocks that were WINNERS Some of those stocks are a bit over extended, but there are sill some “buy the dip candidates” and (not quite as good) “potential breakouts. “Almost all of these stocks have the potential for a long term run.

The McClellan Oscillator is near Zero so overall market upside and downside risk is equal.

Best read of tea leaves - This week should do well and Monday’s are usually good. TEVA, & others that fall in weak volume that do not have a strong resistance level are best shots at fast gains. However a breakout from a longer consolidation is usually better long term play.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

New Mexico

Move YOUR Money

The  state of New Mexico’s house voted 65 to 0 to move their money ($2 to 5 billion) from the big shadow banks to the local community banks. So why can’t YOU Write your state legislatures. Tell them what New Mexico did.  Tell them what YOU did. You can make a difference.

Elizabeth Warren Calls Out Wall Street

part 2

Great follow up by James Kwak editorial on how the Big Shadow banks will try to block Warren and reform. Obviously the entire Federal government failed to stop the Shadow banks bring this country to its knees.  All the TEA party people, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck will rise up to  scream oppose to any attempt by the Feds to better protect the common working man and woman – They will call it socialism, big government, and stifling the markets.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Technically, Volume. out #1 confirmation factor, seems to be turning in favor of the bulls.  For the last few days rallies instead of price declines seem to begetting the bulk of the volume.  While its too early to claim victory on this price roller coaster a bullish trend is developing. Perhaps the single biggest basis for this potential bullish trend are US equities are oversold (see below)

Fundamentally -Looks like rally may be starting and European countries are going to protect potential defaulting countries. Short term positive – long term negative. Here’s the question – Will Greek workers be happy with austerity demanded by German banks? Is Greece like the Countrywide Bank (first of the big USA banks to fail) of the USA?

US trade deficits just got bigger -$40.2 billion – for last month. A bigger than expected number probably due to strengthening dollar. Bearish stat

Significant indexes – Forecasting tools for market direction

• McClellan Index fell to -37.14 =Approaching Oversold. We’ve passed -60 or oversold levels twice. When the  McClellan Oscillator gets past those levels its a signal to buy.  The more we are over -60 the better at least a short term buy will come out successful. -37.34 is a better entry point than +37,34, but not as good as -60 and beyond.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells – Revised positions over weekend) – These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

These are YOUR selections

Stock Watch List

NB – I feel much more confident with ETF’s because they reflect global trends than individual stock. Too many things can go wrong with individual stocks. Click on ticker symbol for chart

Caution – You have to be careful that the dip does NOT break trough a major support level. Then the dip becomes toast

• SEED – A China related stock. Broke down through support levels and created lower low. Trend broken. removing from list
  
• AAPL - Formed a double bottom trading pattern @ 190 - a buy the dip opportunity
  
• CAAS – Broke down though 50 day, but has some STRONG volume up days. A China play that will follow FXI. Tempting
  
• PCLN – Fell below 50 day moving average. Formed a double bottom bullish trading pattern. A buy the dip opportunity
  
• F – Oversold, and well down from highs. Has formed a base at 10.5  - a buy the dip opportunity
  
• DRWI - Big exporter to China -  Sitting on 50 day MA support level  No big volume as stock dropped= good sign. Buy the dip .
  
• ENOC – New – Reduces costs for utilities 50 day MA acting as support Potential buy the dip
• IMAX – Great long term chart – Poor short term chart. Lower highs and lower lows  Investors411 has a 2% of portfolio position in this stock. Sell at least 1/2 into next rally

YOUR new Stocks (sorry several of you sent multiple lists and I picked what looked best)

• GS, Often considered the #1 Shadow bank seems to have formed base at @ 150 Tempting.
• CSCO, Techs new leader Moving up despite rocky market a by the dip
  
• SHOO, Great long term chart. Pulled back and is forming a base. Would like to see a bigger base, but tempting
  
• ICON, Did NOT form lower low over last two weeks as markets toasted a buy the dip
  
• VPRT Another stock that weathered recent pullback well a buy the dip
• DGIT Thinly traded, but potential winner – just broke above its 50 day MA a buy the Dip
• CTCT Rebounding stock, has a of good volume up days has breakout potential
• VCI Good volume, good chart Somewhat overextended A buy the dip underway
  

Bottom Line – We are oversold and ready for at least a short term run – Investors 411 opened a 5% position in TYH (3x financials) Friday at 117.14  TYH now at 123.56 Sold 50% at 124.85 on Friday for +6% gain.

Big Mistake here was not to commit more $ TYH to trade.

I’d much rather buy while the McClellan Oscillator is -37 than +37. But, the lower the McClellan goes the better the buying opportunity.

Lots of the above stocks have technical potential IF there is a rally

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

2010 Future?

Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, China and Future Wars

The NYT is carrying an ominous front page story on 3 Americans dying in Pakistan . And you thought there were NO US troops in Pakistan.

How the Pakistan media portrays the US – 123 civilians killed & 3 al Qaeda fighters in drone attacks January. US to increase drone attacks by 75% Only 9% of Pakistani’s support these drone attacks. The opposition Muslim party is by far the now the most popular and their mantra is “Go America Go ” – Hint – they are not cheering us on, but telling us to get out.

Combine this with our growing problems in Yemen, Iran & China (see yesterday’s Investors411) and 2010 is shaping up to be another year where animosity between the US and the rest of the world grows. Recently the NYT reported that over 30 other US companies besides Google were hacked in China. The China/US economic relationship is key to the growth of their and the world’s economic well being.

Check out Popeye’s comments on right of blog. I’m certainly not as strongly anti Obama as he is, but he brings up some good points. Especially, the American media failed to mention that NATO refused to send 10,000 more troops to Afghanistan.  Once again another “coalition of the willing” seems to be breaking down.

Perhaps the real reason for the troop escalation in Afghanistan is preparation for an invasion of Iran . We now will have over 100,000 troops on both sides of Iran – In Iraq & Afghanistan. Best blog for educated inside information continues to be Prof.Coles Informed Comment

Bottom Line – Trend - 2010 looks to be a year of growing instability with the US and the rest of the world. This could have a negative impact on stocks.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

US markets rallied significantly again.  This time volume increased and was just above average. Increased volume is what bulls love to see in a 1% or greater rally. But these figures were not the BIG volume bulls want to see and were there when stocks fell over the last few weeks.  So far we have an oversold bounce . Time will tell if it develops into anything.

The major event of this week will be the Monthly jobs report at the end of the week.

February is historically a BAD month for stocks.

Markets had every reason to tank as Obama economic adviser and legendary Fed Chair Paul Volker spoke in front of the Senate Finance committee about breaking up too big to fail banks. Instead, stocks move higher.  Much needed financial reform of the shadow banks looks DOA to investors.

Significant indexes

• McClellan Index at -21.79 = We’ve pulled way back from -90 or oversold levels two days ago.
• BDI – This chart shows the Baltic Dry Index (scroll down) , a measure of shipping costs, Has broken through a major month long  support level at @ 3000 and is still falling. Yesterday the BDI closed at  2691.= Bearish – especially for China. More on this tomorrow)
  

Mistake – Unfortunately, I was away Thursday through Monday.  It looks like Thursday Friday when the McClellan Oscillator hit -70 then -90 was the time to buy.

Chinese stocks bottomed 5 trading days ago and are once again leading US stocks higher.  There is a disconnect or contradiction with the BDI falling. China, whose economy is both export and import driven, should see an INCREASING BDI when its markets grow.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends – will try to update last few weeks today) – These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Stock Watch List

NB – I feel much more confident with ETF’s because they reflect global trends than individual stock. Too many things can go wrong with individual stocks. Click on ticker symbol for chart

• SEED – A China related stock. In a buy the dip position at 50 day moving average
  
• AAPL - Apple’s latest product seems to be a bit of a dud. Former leader now under performing.
  
• HMIN - Failed breakout . China play. Will recover when  China does.  Will drop from list soon
  
• CAAS – Broke down though 50 day, but has rallied last two days in STRONG volume. Tempting
  
• PCLN – Fell below 50 day moving average. Had a good pop in price and volume on Monday. Tempting
  
• F – Now less over extended. Too much recent down day volume. Tempting
• DRWI - Big exporter to China -  Was way too overextended to buy, and now sitting on 50 day MA support level  No big volume as stock dropped= good sign. Buy the dip .
  
• ENOC – New – Reduces costs for utilities – No big volume behind its recent fall. Potential buy the dip .
• ATHN – New - Software reduces costs for health care - Broke its longer term bullish trend in big  volume – Will drop from list soon.
  
• IMAX – Great long term chart – falling back to its 50 day moving average. Outperforming overall market Still a buy the dip opportunity . Investors411 has a 2% of portfolio position in this stock

IMAX still rules. DRWI, SEED & ENOC seem to be the best of the rest. Would open position in any of these on an overall stock market dip.

Looking for a couple new suggestions to YOUR recommended list.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING