Naomi Klein at TED

TED is a non profit that presents ideas worth spreading. Investors411 has reference TED many times. One of the latest speakers is Naomi Klein – Her 20 minute presentation is on how the USA is Addicted to Risk.”

We all know how shadow financials addiction to risk turned out – The 2008 housing/jobs/stock/economic meltdown into the “Great Recession.”  They took the risk and we paid the price or socialized the loss.

TED is the best lecture series out there. There are many diverse and enlightening topics. One hundred times better than anything on the tube. I strongly urge you check it out. Perhaps Naomi Klein is not your cup of tea. You will find others who are. Surf at your leisure on topics from business to the stars.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.11% flat
NASDQ -1.46% up
S&P 500 -1.01% down
Russell 2000 -2.56% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • 3 of the 4 major stock indexes had their biggest correction in two months yesterday. Today is a “confirmation” of the breakdown day (see Tea Leaves section below)
  • Overall volume is is slightly higher because of earnings season – So the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the market may have problems if bulls panic. The Fed can’t overcome panicked investors. But when panic subsides its back to normal.
  • Stockcharts.com has an excellent overview of the markets page in graph form. It’s FREE and where I get most of my data. It lists Indexes, Sectors, Countries, Industries, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, and even some Bearish/Bullish indicators all on one easy to read page.
  • Markets around the world have followed US lead and closed or are lower.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell another -0.41%. We . Support broke two days and yesterday’s fall confirms the breakdown. Outlook for stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO fell to -21.49. This broke the char pattern of a series of higher lows and is bearish in the short term. When we get closer to -60 the outlook will reverse to bullish. Outlook overall for stocks = Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Well, it may be finally happening. I’ve told you that most of the analysts I follow were predicting a correction for about a month. Yesterday was the first serious retreat for 3 of the 4 major indexes in almost two months. Today is “confirmation” day. If stocks can regain over 1/2 of yesterday’s losses the bull will be seen as regaining control.

The MO has broken its chart pattern and that’s bearish

Investors run in herds. Some lightning has struck and the herd turned yesterday. The dollar’s drop, and the FED’s POMO program should keep this drop from being a disaster.

The general AAPL (& IBM) is still holding up, but all around high beta (Stocks, in this case, that have had volatile moves higher) are falling like flies.

Major concern - Any long positions you have.  After a correction –  If /when the MO hits -60 Investors411 again will start to BUY. But for now tighten stops.

What to watch today

AAPL – This is the tech leader. Down only -0.53% yesterday. The rest of technology crumbled around it yesterday. But if the big dog starts to crumble, we’re in for more than a minor correction.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM - (2x small cap stocks) 1/2 of UWM was sold at 43.57 yesterday for a +6% gain. Have a 4% trailing stop from late yesterday on the remainder, but may sell earlier
  • REMX - (rare earth metals) Placed 5% trailing stop on 1/2 the position. Another trailing stop/loss at 7% below purchase price for last 1/2 two days ago. Since recent high was 24.30 and REMX closed at 23.58 I could get closed out of this position soon.

One Mantra of Investors411

No one ever went broke taking profits.

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Challenged its resistance/break out level but failed. Would buy any pullback close to 12.0

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building. Warning - over extended right now. We have the start of a correction/dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip.  This is a tough buy right now because the down days have big volume and up days small volume.

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Thanks to Monitor, JS, The Critic & Paul for all the warnings on Your Stock List #3.

Investors411 has closed down each of its previous YSL’s BRFORE earnings reports.

The results of YSL#3 Before Earning Reports were YSL #3 up 12.07% vs S&P 500 up 8.95%  from 11/22

As I concluded about YSL#3 in yesterday’s warning about holding high risk stocks in YSL #3 through earnings (see comments section of blog) “No one ever went broke taking profits.” (For anyone not following the Comments Section see remarks directly below or go to HELP/EDITOR section at top of blog)

While this result is +22% better than the S&P 500 It’s not nearly as good as YSL #1 & #2 . (You can view the results of YSL #1 &#2 at the bottom of  in the “under construction” POSITION section of blog – Hope to finish construction by weekend)

These warning proved prescient. Monitor List of when YSL#3 stocks report their earnings can be found on Investors411 – 1/13 post “The new Global Elite.” use directions below.

FFIV was the first stock to report (after the bell last night) on the list and while it was an escalator going up it looks to be an elevator going down. See Paul’s comments. We will have to wait to see how the rest of the companies do. Generally earning season closes (for me) the weekend after CSCO announces its report.

Bottom Line we will have a YSL #3 Before Earnings and After Earnings. We’ll see which is better. But from last night’s start YSL#3 After Earnings will probably under perform.

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How to look up comments from the last two weeks.

Click on SUBSCRIBE TO RSS (top right of blog) You will see a list with title and short summary of the last two weeks of blogs. Click on title and up will come that day’s blog and the comments associated with it. Scroll down to comments

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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