Article - Mehta Homeland Security

The Face of a Terrorist

The Daily Beast/Newsweek is featuring a story on the “rise of right wing extremism could spur violent attacks” warned by Homeland Security in 2009. (story by Aaron Mehta)

Some Facts About the USA

  • In 2007 there were 47 active militia groups in USA. In 2009 127 (source Atlantic pg 72 & 73 below)
  • In 2007 $288 million in taxes from firearms and ammunition. In 2009 $453 million
  • Clay Duke, white male, shoots at Florida School Board members and kills self.
  • Michael Enright, white male, kills cabbie who he suspects is a Muslim in NYC.
  • Byron Williams white male, shoots at & arrested by police on his way to kill liberal members of liberal foundation
  • Joe Stack, white male, drives his private plane into IRS building.

“Now, if the accused [the Arizona assassin/terrorist] had been Muslim, [instead of white males] does anyone doubt whether this mass murder would have been considered an act of terrorism?” asks Bill Quigley

One of the progressives in the comments section of this blog was recently talked out of buying a gun after the Arizona massacre at a Democratic congresswomen’s event Is it only a matter of time before the left stops lighting candles and violently retaliates? What happens after that?

Rage paranoia and division are growing in a country already consumed with violent behavior. Can President Obama and other leaders step up and use this moment to “Overcome Evil with Good?”

“the atmosphere in which this horrible tragedy was born, nurtured, and carried to its wretched fruition is toxic. Of course, there are always going to be unbalanced people, just as there are always going to be viruses in our environment — but what most determines whether those viruses make us sick is the strength of our immune system. When it is stressed and compromised, infections can easily take hold.

To paraphrase the title of Arianna Huffington’s excellent editorial (her quote above) What will YOU do is the real question.

Will YOUR voice remain quiet?




KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary





Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.32% down
NASDQ +0.17% down
S&P 500 -0.14% down
Russell 2000 +0.48% -




Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Markets fell in the AM and then the Fed primed the money supply with a $7.96 billion purchase of bonds.
  • Volume figures relative to the past decade at this time are pitifully low.
  • Mantra - THIS IS A  STOCK MARKET BEING MANIPULATED HIGHER by the Fed & the US government. Call it bad, good or ugly – just like QE 1, now QE2 (quantitative easing round 2) and low interest rates for shadow financials is perhaps the most significant driving force behind long term rally (more below under Tea Leaves section)
  • Therefore, I remain convinced that good economic news for the USA is OK for stocks, but bad news is better because it means more quantitative easing by the Fed.
  • Two significant factors weigh in today on markets – Europe All Eyes on PIIGS & Extreme Bullishness a Concern




Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] 5 day significant rally in & dollar near breakout levels. Friday fell -0.16%. The resistance level was threatened at the open, but held as the dollar closed slightly lower.  Trend for stocks = Neutral/Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Almost no change yesterday -7.94 The MO has been no where near +/- 60 for two months, but the chart shows a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows and that’s bullish. Outlook for stocks = Neutral
  • 10 year T Bill (TNX)  In consolidation pattern  Some big recent moves shows big indecision. Big jump lower Friday, but still in range. = Neutral
  • Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [Measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide. Also proxy for exports, especially China] This index has  broken a major support level and is falling like an anchor. = Bearish




Reading The Tea Leaves

The ”schizophrenic.” pattern changed back again yesterday Big dip at open only to see stocks rally higher throughout the day.

Under normal circumstances this market would have crashed and burned, but for 18 months we had the training wheels of stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing.

The Baltic Dry Index is in a meltdownSimply put the cost to ship goods worldwide is breaking down it costs less to ship each day and is starting to approach levels near the beginning of the recession.

Here’s the anomaly – The prices of the goods they ship are all near record highs – copper, grain, coal etc. Here’s a long list of comparative charts showing a strong correlation between the BDI, stocks and commodities breaking down into a 180 degree reversal.

Line from Hamlet – Somethings Rotten in the State of Denmark - Either some mysterious entity is producing dozens of huge ships each day or perhaps our Fed’s quantitative easing money is also being shipped abroad.  Edit 1/11 2:40 EST – it turns out there is a huge glut of new ships and the sites I used did not have this information. Mea Culpa

What to watch

AAPL - This time Apple had a solid gain as it broke out to another new high (up +1.88%).

UUP –  The dollar went right up its resistance level. It held and the tracking ETF for the dollar ended up falling.

Working on 2011 Investment guide - Short term more bearish, but bullish in long term for the year.





The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM – UWM still outperforming other US indexes

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices) Very erratic, waiting till correction settles.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) -   Will buy back hopefully on slight dip.  Blew chance to buy dip yesterday – was not near computer when it happened. Only ETF under immediate consideration at this time.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Waiting for larger pull back on both.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. -  Massachusetts Supreme court has ruled against shadow banks foreclosing because of the difficulty in knowing who owns the hidden derivatives on the mortgage. Obviously in the end (We Have the Most Pro Business Supreme Court Ever – Headline this month’s Forbes magazine) the shadows will probably win. But other state supreme courts will probably be unanimously against this too. – We’ve had a dip on this news and might be done. Those with no ethic problems could consider a buy.

DGP – Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip. Consolidating at support level. A possible buy. What probably happens is a bear raid breaking support. Then once the weak holders are whipped out gold will rally. Here’s a hidden gem of news – India has told Iran it would buy oil in gold. Those that can tolerate the risk – now’s the time to buy.

YOUR Stock ListPaul tells me YSL#3 was back outperforming the S&P benchmark. Add to that Yesterday was an outstanding day for YSL#3

If you check out the comments section of the blog you’ll notice Paul made a call on Solar Stocks a while back. This sector is white hot right now. Moral of the story is if you are a trader, keep an eye on the comments section of the blog for ideas.



Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


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