The Good Fight
Elizabeth Warren’s 2 minute viral video that has exploded across Massachusetts (From USA Today)
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How YOU Pay More Than a Billionaire
Warren Buffett said it best - “His secretary has a higher net tax rate than he does.”
The primary cause for this is the uber weatlhy from trust fund babies to hedge fund managers pay only 15% on their capital gains tax. If you work you pay 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, or 35%
All uber wealthy individuals has to do is invest in HFT hedge funds (60+ % of all US stock investing – that make $$$ of market trading imbalances) or invest in the unregulated opaque $600 trillion Credit Default Swaps (Financial WMD’s – Warren Buffett) market. Are YOU wealthy enough to invest in HFT’s or CDS’s?
The uber wealthy through institutions can sit back and take massive gains (privatized gains) Then pay 15% on those gains.
The sucker American taxpayer and ordinary investor who is working his/her butt off not only pays more taxes, but has to bail out the too big to fail shadow institutions. (socialize risk)
Wake Up People
You’re Being Played for a Sucker
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Stocks
If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary
AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!
DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES
| Index | Percentage | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Dow | +0.35% | down |
| NASDQ | +1.12% | down |
| S&P 500 | +0.61% | down |
| Russell 2000 | +1.40% |
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Market Analysis
Focus on Technicals, Fundamentals & HFT’s
- Last weeks meltdown came to a halt at support levels for the major indexes. Friday started a typical HFT driven, low volume, oversold bounce.
- Trend - Kicking the can down the road on Greece is mana from heaven for HFT who can use every news items to execute short squeezes, pump and dumps or catching institutional traders with losing long positions.
- “Must Know News” – From Seeking Alpha’s Rachel Granby
Investors411 Technical Forecasting Tools.
- The PCR fell to 1.15 (Roughly - above 1.25 is getting Bearish and below 0.80 is getting Bullish. 1.00 = same amount of puts and calls. Over last two years the highest for PCR is @1.50 and lowest @0.60 - anything approach these levels shows change likely For more information on PCR LINK) Two days just above 1.25 was followed by yesterday’s 1.15 = Bearish/Neutral
- (MO) fell to -42.55 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold & +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) Somewhat Oversold. = Bullish/Neutral
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Reading The Tea Leaves
Short Term Outlook
days, week+
- We have again bounced off support levels with a slight HFT dominated low volume rally Friday. Momentum is with bulls.
- Path of least resistance for HFT dominated US markets is higher.
Longer Term Outlook
month, months
- Repeat Same old mantra - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May. For the Fed to act significantly – inject more liquidity - I’m afraid we need to see stocks do worse for that to happen.
- Energy , Financials and Copper (proxy for global growth) all made significant new lows Thursday= Long Term Bearish.
- US Dollar – Investors411 has used the dollar many times before tp forecast market direction. It’s worth noting an upside breakout - Chart. That’s bearish for stocks and gold. The contrarian side of this is a strong dollar, low interest rates/inflation coupled with a weak stock market give the Fed a reason to launch another liquidity move (QE #3) This would drive stocks higher.
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Current Positions
Below – Investors411 hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500
See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)
NLY – Will buy back into this high dividend stock on Dip.
Gold - Major move to downside. If the Fed comes out with QE #3 gold should instantly regain its shine. For now its fallen too far too fast to buy. Traders who can handle the risk – a third gap down at open and another significant fall should bring us to longer term support levels. GLD is at very oversold levels. Perhaps a trade, but not an investment.
Strong dollar is significant factor in gold’s meltdown.
Traders - We still have a risk on trading opportunity. Our two forecasting tools are slightly bullish, but not yet at the more extreme levels where its even safer to buy. Rising dollar is counter weight to an extended rally, but momentum with bulls.
Investors - Thursday’ lead story is the Long Term Outlook for the Fall. If the Fed introduces more liquidity, or by some miracle without Fed help technicals show an upside breakout of the trading range we are in (S&P 500 at 1136 – Range 1120 to 1220) – Outlook remains CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH outlook remains.
You can find YSL #5 in Positions Section of blog.
No long term positions held at this time (See last Friday’s blog for more)
Disclaimer - I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. If stock is mentioned and I own it you will know.
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Long Term Outlook
(for US stocks only – not our economy)
CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*
*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.
* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)
AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE
