Check out the comments from Bob, Monitor, Doggies Mom, D. & Popeye on right side of blog. Are they right?

The Green Revolution

Iran

The Iranian Green Revolution has again erupted into massive demonstrations. Today’s lead editorial at NYT Iran’s War on Its People LINK

One video shows protesters stopping a lynching LINK More pro reform video’s of demonstration LINK The BBC (almost always superior to American media) has photos of clashes LINK & Andrew Sullivan (Atlantic Magazine) again outstanding in coverage LINK Al Jazeera (Arab media’s largest outlet) also has lots of coverage LINK Warning some of these pictures and videos are violent

About the worst thing that could happen is if Israel or the USA launched some sort of attack. We didn’t when the satellites of the old Soviet empire crumbled and we should not now. It would create martyrs in Iran and almost all those demonstrating are asking us to stay out. To help - the best YOU can do is spread the news/videos.

The irony here is in Iraq we have put in power the same kind of religious theocracy. Maliki, our supposed puppet head of Iraq, was the first (government/group) along with Hamas and Hezbollah to recognize Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent presidential election. The two major religious leaders in Iraq Sard and Sistani have never even spoken to any Americans.

Yemen & Saudi Arabia

Al Qaeda of Saudi Arabia has claimed responsibility and Yemen was where the attempted bomber of the Christmas plane flight was trained. We seem to be already using drone planes to attack suspected bases in Yemen. These two groups seemed to have merged. For more see LINK

Let’s put together an incomplete list of where these (Sunni as opposed to Shia) al Quaeda terrorists are from or trained – The USA, Saudi Arabia, England, Yemen, Iraq, France, Germany, Syria, Indonesia, Spain,Nigeria, Egypt and the list goes on and on and on and on and grows and grows and grows and grows.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that got the most recommendations I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

  • BIDU – Baidu Inc. China’s version of Google. After a HUGE 300% rally tis year it looks technically like this stock is leveling off. The last 3 months it has tried to break out above 350 and failed.  The BDI  which is often used for a proxie on China has fallen for 6 weeks. I’d wait for a turn in the BDI and/or a BIDU breakout over the 450 level before investing.
  • AAPL – Apple Computer – A company that everyone knows. Along with AMZN & GOOG, AAPL has led tech stocks higher.  Apple has just broken out to a new high. There has been increased volume (a good sign)supporting AAPL for the last few months. Right now US markets & AAPL are nearing overbought levels. Right now this limits upside movement. Still tempting and a buy the dip stock.
  • AMZN – Amazon – Internet retail giant.  Looks like Christmas season for this giant is going to be better than expected. Investors411 has bought and sold this stock. There was a good buy the dip opportunity a week+ back when AMZN dipped back to its 50 day moving average. Like AAPL a lot of increased volume behind AMZN in the last few months – good sign. If markets move higher these last two will lead. A buy the dip stock.

That’s it – Use the calender at the top of the page and go over all YOUR stock choices made over the last week+.  Some of them are great “buy the dip opportunities”

Next  Stock forecast for 2010


KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.26% up
NASDQ +0.24% up
S&P500 +0.12% up
Russell2000- -0.05% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Another low volume day. Stocks have been up 6 days in a row on extremely low volume.

Holiday sales estimated to be up 3.6%. This is a positive surprise LINK = Bullish fundamental

McClellan Oscillator at +48.42 (very close to overbought – see below) = Bearish technical

See changes in positions below.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before “Up to flat week” – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +48.42 This is very close to an  Overbought Position. = Time to start lighten up on positions. This does not mean the markets won’t move higher. I’ve set up a yearly chart of the $NYMO LINK You’ll notice that the $NYMO went all the way up to +100 in the big March rally. So + 60 is NOT an automatic sell of everything, but a signal to lighten up. See buys/sells below.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Sold (6% of portfolio)  FXI at 42.35. FXI now 12% of portfolio – Profit +36% Will add to the this key position when BDI turns positive for over a week and/or the $NYMO is closer to oversold positions

Very tight stop on 1/2 the position of UWM (ETF that does 2X what small cap sacks do) The other stop at 1/2 is at the price UWM was bought.  Will sell 1/2 into any rally

Now 48% invested in stocks. If you count one mutual fund I’ve owned for 5 years (BRSIX ) I’m 54% invested in stocks. Click on POSITIONS section at top of blog for more.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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