It’s on its way

YOUR Stock List #5

  • Four times, together, we’ve  roasted and toasted our benchmark S&P 500 LINK (scroll down for results)
  • Four times YOU sent in entries for YOUR stock lists
  • Four times  Paul & I have gone over them and picked potential winners (we added a few too)

Now its time for YOUR stock List #5 (YSL #5) and we think its the best yet.

Tomorrow in Paul’s Corner

YSL #5

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  • Warren Buffett on Charlie Rose LINKIf you can hold the US debt ceiling hostage, you can hold it hostage to anything from abortion to the latest war.
  • Warren Buffett in NYT “Stop Coddling The Super Rich” LINK

One early poll means almost nothing but Rasmussen Poll: Rick Perry 29%, Mitt Romney 18%, Michelle Bachmann 18% and Ron Paul 9% But it does raise an eyebrow.

Perry is a larger than life “gun toting, flag waving, bible thumping, Bernanke bashing, Tea Party loving, patriot.”

If I were Mitt Romney I’d be really concerned that if Bachmann of Paul drops out their vote will go to Perry and not him.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.67% low
NASDQ -1.24% low
S&P 500 -0.97% low
Russell 2000 -0.93% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • A weak volume rally followed by a weak volume decline – Just the kind of situation HFT’s in the past have used to extend a weak volume rally. News out of Europe did cause a drop, but interday we rallied off the lows.

The 3 Legs – Europe, USA & Emerging Markets

  • One of the three legs, Europe is very wobbly and most investment eyes are focused on it. LINK Bad news did sink US stocks, but we rallied off them and unless there is some unexpected European meltdown our bullish mojo should continue.
  • Never forget our mantraHigh Frequency Traders Rule US & European Equities- These entities make their decision in microseconds and are not based on long term trends. They account for low volume rallies and other atypical technical market behavior.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +9.99 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Chart shows we are almost dead center in the middle of oversold and overbought territory. There’s wiggle room for stocks to move either way and mojo is with the bulls. = Neutral
  • Reading The Tea LeavesShort term momentum still with the bulls. Fed’s low interest rates till mid 2013 and relatively low levels of the dollar mean profits for globalized American companies should hold steady. Momentum still with the bulls till we reach oversold territory in the MO

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL. Any announcement of a type of QE #3 would push the outlook even higher.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

YOUR Stock List #5 is done and except for some last minute tweaking and waiting for an earnings report. It will be published on Thursday in Paul’s Corner.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip. Mea culpa – The small two day dip was a decent  entry point and I missed it. Why Gold

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABVAGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some (about 80% of thisposition has been sold) SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

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The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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