frank_rich

“The Other Plot to Wreck America”

We get fear mongered about terrorism 24/7 yet obviously more American  lives within the USA will be directly impacted by everything from cancer to car accidents.

The other plot to wreck America is financial – the Shadow banks and the politicians, investors,lobbyists, and businesses that protect them. NOTHING has been done to to fix it.  We ignore the 9/15 crash (Lehmann Brothers) and it will happen again and again. American’s are being kept blissfully ignorant.

“What we don’t know will hurt us, and quite possibly on a more devastating scale than any Qaeda attack.” This make’s last Sunday’s Frank Rich’s NYT editorial a must read.

Bubble Warning

The Economist print cover

The Economist, one of the worlds most influencail economic magazine predicts “Markets are too dependent on unsustainable government stimulus [around the world]. Something’s got to give.” Sorry, you have to subscribe to getfull story.

YOUR Comments

Why us? Popeye (see right side of blog) asks the question Helen Thomas did at an Obama/Homeland security conference last week. Why is al Oaeda NOT attacking a hundred other countries? He lists a dozen major countries. Osama Been Forgotten’s old 1998  fatwa lists 3 reasons for his attack

  • US troops in Saudi Arabia
  • UN sanctions in Iraq were killing children
  • US support for Israel

“Privatized War & Its Price”

The Roman empire privatized war before it fell and so too is the USA. The lead editorial in The NYT carries the above headline. We have outsourced war (with YOUR) tax dollars just like American companies outsource jobs. Blackwater and other undersupervised contractors have no code of military ethics and are perhaps the #1 reason we loose the hearts and minds of the countries we occupy. Ironically similar to Avatar.

Image: "Avatar"

AVATAR bigger than Titanic

Avatar in 3 D is on its way to shattering Titanic’s box office. $1.34 billion in 4 weeks vs. Titanic’s $1.8 billion.  BUY some IMAX stocks.  Forget waiting for the dip.  Start small and build. With 3d TV on the way, & newly mastered 3d technology IMAX should end up over 100% without some huge stock market or individual  disaster.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.11% down
NASDQ +0.74% down
S&P500 +0.29% down
Russell2000- +0.40% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Major US markets rose in the last 1/2 hour of trading.  Why not – 15 of the last 17 Mondays have been up days.  This was, in part, a mad last minute buying of traders to get ahead of “Merger Monday.”  There may not be lots of mergers, but stocks follow patterns and Monday’s have a stellar record over the last 4 months.

The employment numbers for December - 84,000 – below expectations, but stocks rose - Why? – The number is sway better than last January’s - 700,000+ But for stocks the below expectations is more important. A quick jobs recovery is actually and perversely  BAD for stocks.  The reason is the quicker the recovery the sooner the Fed will raise rates.  Right now investors/traders are forced into buying stocks because everything else is at such a low interest rate.

Therefore , Low interest rates are one key to US stocks moving higher.

  • McClellan Index at +32.89 = A bit overbought.  The index has moved higher for a week. There is still some wiggle room for US stocks to move even higher before they reach @+60 or overbought territory -  There’s a long way to go till we reach @-60 or oversold.

The McClellan Oscillator is showing less room for upside gain.   However, technically this chart shows a series of 4 higher highs and a solid base at sero – It’s bounced 3 times off this number and is now a short term buying point.

Earnings season starts this week. A (Alcoa reports on Monda)y and at the end of the week some bigger companies.

Fearless Weekly Forecasts -

  • From last week “Up at start of week and decline at end.”  I thought the jobs number would be around zero (expectations of market was same) and investors would sell on the news.  We did have a great start and an up week.
  • The weaker than expected jobs report (but not too bad) was just what stock bulls want.(see above)  Should be another good week for bulls.  Until the McClellan Oscillator reaches overbought territory bulls rule.

The long term bull is trend is firmly in place, but we are getting close to overbought territory.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Adding a small position in IMAX – Will build this on dips.

More on other stocks tomorrow.

See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details on this and what’s under consideration for 2010.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark