Illustration – Mark Matcho/Mother Jones

Corporate America is flush with cash and profits are up 22% this year. Instead of an editorial, here are three charts showing what’s happening to growth, productivity, wealth, &  JOBS in the USA and other major democracies. You be the judge.

Rich Get Richer and  You Get Scraps

Growth is Back

But Not Jobs in USA

These are just three of a dozen eye popping and credibly sourced  charts found in Mother Jones. You can see where American jobs are going at the MJ Link. A WSJ chart will be featured tomorrow with this info.

Other democracies protect their workers, have far stronger unions, and unions work with both companies and their federal government to protect jobs and company profits.

Here working class Americans “fight over scraps on the table” and blame each other while the uber wealthy get richer.

A number of you have pointed out in the comments section on the victory for Gay rights/marriage in NY.  Popeye quotes the latest Gallop poll shows 52% to 43% now favor the NY approach as long as religious beliefs are respected.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.96 Up
NASDQ -1.26 Up
S&P 500 -1.17 UP
Russell 2000 -0.61 -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Reading The Tea Leaves Longer Term -On May 20th The long term outlook was downgraded and then again on June 7th.  A rough translation of this is 4 to 6 months there is a strong possibility that  the benchmark S&P will end up 10 to 20% off its high. There are two foreseeable economic problems that might cause us to reach 20% or a larger meltdown.

  1. Europe mishandling of their debt crisisThe bottom line is do European banks stay strong or is their a run on them because of the debt problem?This problem has been exacerbated by the 2008 financial meltdown
  2. Default on American debtAmerica’s role as a world leader and financial model has been seriously eroded in the past decade.  Polarized American politicians are playing a high stake game of chicken with the national debt and the remaining credibility of our financial/economic model in the eyes of the world.

Long term the later is probably a bigger problem.

Shorter Term Outlook.

  • US stocks fell in above average volume. This year, big volume declines didn’t seem to matter as long as the Fed had our back with increased liquidity. That vanishes in 4 days. The huge swings and indecisiveness of stocks is a reflection of this and other economic problems (see above)
  • Obama releasing petroleum reserves helps oil prices. The next time he does this it might not be as effective.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to -14.81 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months.  The last low was close to -70 and the MO has a way to go before reaching that.  = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar rose  significantly +o.48% Friday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. The dollar is now at new short term high For stocks short term trend = Bearish

  • Reading The Tea LeavesShorter term Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting. The whole roller coaster ride ride of the last two weeks is a big spring. winding.

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A Long Term Portfolio

Many Thanks to The Critic for sharing her portfolio. The Critic has been with Investors411 from the start and is a frequent contributor to the comments section.  The Critic is an executive at a major company.

The Critic largest position is in cash and has stated many times in the comments section that she has protected much of the below portfolio like JS by using Puts & short ETF’s (see comments section)  I’ve been working with Critic and another person in developing the lists of dividend stocks as long term investments. Again Many Thanks for sharing .

Disclosure I own many o the below positions.[Editor]

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Barr, most of these stock have done well since the start of the year, but the future is clouded.  Just remember to tell people that I’ve bought protection because of the potential risks ahead and I buy the dip. If you want to use them for Your Stock List feel free. Like all dividend stocks I choose only those that have flat or increased dividends.

  • NLY – Biggest fish in the high dividend group. Jim Cramer loves this stock.
  • AGNC - Little fish in the same group.
  • CVX - Oil Company with small dividend. Much better than Exxon because it buys back far less of its stock to prop up stock price.
  • MCD – Giant Food Company with smaller dividend.
  • KMP – Limited partnership – Tax considerations here, but I know the company and like it.
  • T – Phone company and a big one.
  • WIN – Phone company and a small one with higher dividend.
  • SNH – Buys senior properties. Unless badly managed this area has to expand.
  • DUK – This is my energy play
  • HCN – Health Care REIT
  • HTD - An ETF from John Hancock – Some tax advantages here.

These are the major dividend stocks in my portfolio. I have a some smaller position. and non related mutual and bond  funds. I own these long term because I don’t have time to watch markets day to day and for tax reasons.  Hope this helps.

PS – Barr, please remind people about risk.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago.

Repeat longer Strategy remains -

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply“We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

If/when we break the recent lows of the S&P 500 that little bit of NEUTRAL still in the forecast will vanish

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE



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