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Congressional Budget Office

The non partisan CBO came out with its report on Health Care. Both Republicans & Democrats endorse the CBO reports when it favors their side in whatever debate. Here are some of the major points on the proposed plan

  • Increase costs by $940 billion and cut costs by greater $1,078 billion over first 10 years = net federal deficit saving of $138 billion
  • Cut deficit 1.2 trillion next 10 years
  • Adds coverage for 32 million Americans
  • Closes “doughnut hole.”no longer a gap in senior coverage

Basically it covers 95% of Americans and cuts deficit by over $1.3 trillion over next 20 yearsWAPO’s Ezra Klien. Many analysts feel that this would increase medicare solvency by 9 years

Is Support for Health Care Reform Changing?

Nate Silver, the best poll analyst out there says yes. The center and the left are moving toward Obama on this. Last look at betting site Intrade showed a 78% possibility of bill passing.

The Devil is in the Details

There is a big give away to Louisiana, because they have a Dem. Senator up for reelection and more will come out.   Hopefully they can be changed later. The obvious downside is that this increases the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have. Therefore the exorbitant  17% of our  GDP that goes to Health Care will NOT significantly change

Catholic’s Supporting Health Care

Several major Catholic groups (Catholic Health Organization most notable) are now supporting health care. It’s dawned on them that we are the abortion capital of the world and covering more people will REDUCE abortions as it has in other counties. Thanks to JAB bringing this up in comment section of blog. See JAB’s and other comments  on the right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.42% down
NASDQ +0.09% down
S&P 500 -0.03% down
Russell 2000 -0.35% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

US markets went all over the place yesterday and on the whole ended up flat in decreased, weak volume. This is probably due to options expiring today (the 3rd Friday of the month).

There was some bad news out of Greece

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell significantly to +30.01 yesterday. 0 is Neutral and +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high three weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Once again the NYMO has fallen back down to its support level at 30. While it is much safer to make investments when conditions are oversold (-60) if we are in for a long term rally those willing to take bigger risks could nibble the dip here.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Repeat from Yesterday – “Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology

“IMAX, DWA, RGC & CNK In one sense Investors411 will be building its own market basket of stocks (like an ETF) on the potential of 3D technology.

Many of the Stocks on YOUR stock list are great, perhaps even better than the 3 D plays. The difference is fundamentally 3 D has shown it has pricing power. People around the world will line up to pay an extra 20 to 40% to see a 3D film. Think people will go to movies even if we have another leg down economically. I simply have not had the time to go over the fundamentals of the other stocks. Remember AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 ETF positions are currently under performing the benchmark S&P 500 FXI (China) MOO (Agriculture stocks) & EWZ (Brazil – just a bit under) In one sense technically after many years of out performing this was bound to happen. Investors411 has also cut way back on major foreign investments from highs @ 25% each to 5%.

Three significant reasons US markets are outperforming other foreign  markets

  • Obama’s health care reform does nothing to break the monopoly of the insurance and drug companies. If anything it makes them more $ by covering more people.
  • Financial reform of greed based capitalism proposed by Senator Dodd (D. CT) is very weak and does little to increase transparency.
  • Core inflation is well under control From today’s Seeking Alpha“Thursday’s BLS report on CPI showed core inflation at 6-year lows, up just 1.3% over the recent 12-month period. The main reason for this: The price of ‘shelter’ remains depressed, up only 0.3% YoY.”

Bottom Line – No real reform means another bubble is inevitably building in our greed based (as opposed to rules based) capitalist system. Home prices remaining depressed means the US Fed will keep shoveling money into the system builds both the economic bubble and stock prices.

Investments – There are going to be more short term (when we are closer to overbought) and longer term (when we are oversold) trades involving ETF’s like TYH that do 2 & 3x what an index does.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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