Egypt Burning Series from Al Jazeera

Lessons from Revolutions

Iran, Tunisia and now the Egyptian revolutions have brought home some tough truths or lessons -

  • The Egyptian people are the epicenter of democracy and freedom for the world, NOT the USA.
  • The USA supports a gulag of dictatorships throughout the world because these dictators support our interests.
  • A vicious, brutal dictator is a vicious brutal dictator. The term “moderate” applied to our dictators is a lie. Mubarak killed far more than Ahmadinejad in his revolution.
  • These revolutions clearly were based in a desire for freedom, bread, jobs, and humanity NOT Islamic fundamentalism.
  • The US and other supporters of dictators fear mongering a false doctrine of incompatibility between Islam and Christianity  (Glenn Beck) We all share the common ground of humanity and respect.
  • There is a universal concept for human dignity and respect that transcends religious boundaries.
  • The G 20 nation leaders and other dictators showed only minor lip service to the Egyptian people until the outcome was apparent. Only the secular democracy in arab Turkey and al Jazeera called the people of Egypt “their brothers.”
  • The fear mongering used to overshadow  efforts for peace will NOT stop in the USA, because it benefits politicians and a massive military industrial complex.

I love my country and love the fact that I can still speak out against what it does wrong. However-

We have an American foreign policy that is riddled with hypocrisy and its way past time we break the chains of fear and start to think openly and intelligently about building democracy and hope for more than a privileged few.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary





Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.36% down
NASDQ +0.68% down
S&P 500 +0.55% down
Russell 2000 +1.16% -



Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS – The New Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding stock bubble.

  • Bubbliciously, once again stocks rallied as volume fell
  • Mantra till it no longer works still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. .
  • Mantra #2 - 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades ‘s chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
  • WSJ has come up with a problem for stocksPrices for commodities are rising faster than stock profits
  • Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing – Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.
  • NYT on this week’s outlook. Emerging markets (in a deep correction – see past Investors411)are rebounding



Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose  yesterday  +0.27%.  Two day rally in dollar is bearish for stocks. Today will act as a conformation the doll breakout last week to a short term high.= Neutral/bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to to +28.50. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level.  Stocks outlook = Bearish/Neutral


Helicopter Ben Bernanke - Dishing out a Tsunami of liquidity to US economy

Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantra - A manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed to pay off their over leveraged debt.

Our short term forecasting tolls are turning bearish. They’re almost in the red/bearish territory. Will this be enough to sink the Fed tsunami of liquidity from driving stocks higher?

Monday’s are usually great for equities, but a consolidation or pull back would be more than healthy for this market.  Let’s not have the bubble burst too soon. However, the rebound in oversold emerging markets may be a leading factor this week.

Longer term-  As long as housing prices are hurting and unemployment is high the Fed should keep flooding liquidity into the market. This greatly benefits the big shadow banks that have not had to reform the casino capitalism that had and now continues to make them rich.  All of this is bubble-iciously good for stocks.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high and continues to trade above those levels. Volume was poor for a breakout, but  as long as the market’s Fed manipulation is dominant the rally will continue.



The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) .
  • DBC
  • RJA

RJA is up 4%, so considering taking profits soon.

Commodities are being driven higher by inflation fears in emerging markets. The Fed’s POMO program/QE#2 is a/the major driver of this.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip today

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks)


Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


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