Turning on the Light

So many spend so much time analyzing darkness instead of just turning on the light

One such organization that turns on lights for Cancer patients is

First Descents

“Cancer taught me about death and First Desccnts taught me how to live.”

Change a life

From personal experience (a daughter who is a cancer survivor & she took me to one of their camps) I can’t begin to tell you in words the impact this organization has on the lives of everyone involved.

Yea I hope you explore their site and get involved. But even more I hope that YOU have the courage to make your first descent into any new life enhancing challenge. Turn on a light.

Take your first descent


KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary




Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.76% Down
NASDQ -0.89% Down
S&P 500 -0.81% Down
Russell 2000 -1.55% -



Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.


  • About the only thing bulls had to cheer about was tuning a horrible day into just a bad one by the time US markets closed. Momentum clearly with bears.
  • Debt crisis in Europe is expanding. Interest rate on Greek 2 year bond rocketed to high of 35.19% yesterday. How is Greece ever going to be able to pay this back?  Most talking about major problems in Italy whose banks and bonds got toasted yesterday. Real problem –   European banks still make bets on bundles of securities (credit default swaps) You tend to cringe each AM as the rates for these CDS’s move higher.
  • The odds of the British PM staying in office over the Rupert Murdoch scandal went from 100 to 1 to 8 to 1 overnight.
  • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically to -47.70 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) We’re  somewhat oversold now, but momentum shows there’s probably more to come.= Neutral/Bullish
  • $USD The Dollar rose +0.48% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range with slight, but erratic momentum for dollar bulls, For stocks= Neutral
  • Reading The Tea Leaves-48 on the MO, is usually a figure that oversold stocks bounce higher from. But how high and far is up to the the fundamentals of Europe and US debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki dance over the debt will end. Yesterday’s blog (click on date in calender at top right of blog) contained a tea leaves reading of what and why.
  • No asset class, with the possible exception of gold or shorting equities, could come out of this unscathed. Example – Cashworse case senerio - US defaults – Dollar implodes your US greenbacks become toilet paper. Inflation soars and your cash becomes burnt toilet paper. Of course, other asset classes will probably do worse.


Paul’s Corner

Hello world, it’s July 19 and pre market futures are up, let’s RUMBLE!

Eh excuse me! After a rotten day yesterday you actually expect us to believe it’s going to be a good day in the market you say?

Well that’s just it, at the moment this is a news driven market and it’s dangerous to play in the market with your grand children’s inheritance. A stock or two at the moment Ok, but please don’t sink your cash hoard into the market quite yet. Ian Woodward has just posted another gem of a blog and it’s worth the read. It’s title “Stock Market Spooked: Send In The Clowns” sums it up nicely!


My favorite HGSI “High Demand Search” for July 18 shows the following top three groups had the action yesterday:

Gold (18.00%, 18 securities)

  • Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
  • Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV)
  • AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)
  • Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
  • Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN)
  • Coeur D’Alene Mines Corporat (CDE)
  • Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)
  • Goldcorp  Inc. (GG)
  • IAMGold Corporation (IAG)
  • Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
  • Minefinders  Ltd. (MFN)
  • New Gold  Inc. (NGD)
  • Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)
  • Novagold Resources  Inc. (NG)
  • Randgold Resources  Ltd. (GOLD)
  • Richmont Mines  Inc. (RIC)
  • Royal Gold  Inc. (RGLD)
  • Yamana Gold  Inc. (AUY)

Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods (9.00%, 9 securities)

  • Carter’s  Inc. (CRI)
  • Coach  Inc. (COH)
  • Fossil  Inc. (FOSL)
  • Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)
  • Lululemon Athletica  Inc. (LULU)
  • PVH Corp (PVH)
  • Under Armour  Inc. (UA)
  • VF Corporation (VFC)
  • Warnaco Group  Inc. (WRC)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (9.00%, 9 securities)

  • Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP)
  • Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd. (EXXI)
  • EQT Corp. (EQT)
  • EV Energy Partner LP (EVEP)
  • Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)
  • Northern Oil & Gas  Inc. (NOG)
  • Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
  • W&T Offshore  Inc. (WTI)
  • Whiting Petroleum Corporatio (WLL)

It’s interesting we have these groups as the top three groups once again, Gold, High End Retailers and O&G Exploration. It’s almost like a broken record. These groups keep coming to the top of the list. Perhaps the market is trying to tell us where to place your bet!

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.


Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

GLD & SLVShouda, Woulda, Coulda – I did not buy into any of the gold or silver ETF’s yesterday. Waiting for a dip is like waiting for Godot. Will try again today.

DisclaimerPersonally I own a group of dividend stocks including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and some general ETF’s that track market indexes. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.


Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.


Longer Term Outlook




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