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EGYPT

Day 15

The Brutality Index.

  • The scum bag dictator Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Ruler in Iran killed 72 people in the Green revolution according to the opposition (Wikipedia)
  • Our American supported scum bag dictator Mubarak in Egypt has killed 297 people already and the dust has not yet settled. (Amnesty International)

Our dictator Mubarak has already proven 4 times more violent vicious and brutal than the hated holocaust denier Ahmadinejad.

LINK to a graphic video of an innocent Egyptian protestor with his arms open being brutally murdered by Egyptian police. Your money funds these people.

al Jazeera’s you tube link  continues to be the bet resource. Anorak another site from UK with specific coverage

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The Mafia & the Markets

Part 2

Here’s a list of realities of what you don’t know,how it impacts you and benefits the oligarchy of elite (mafia) wealthy individuals. It’s all legal and the list below is in reference to High Frequency Trading (HFT) and Dark Pool Exchanges (DPE). For more go to - LINK & LINK

Some obvious losses listed there, but here are more.

  • That favorable imbalance in price that HFT’s skim off the top would have gone to YOU or your mutual fund, your pension plan, or whichever way you choose to invest. They win 100% of the time. They skim you loose.
  • ONLY about 40% of the volume in stock trades is based on valuation. Think about this – When you add in there’s less trading going on overall the number of real investors in the market has decreased by 60 to 75%. Two thirds (2/3) of the investors have left the market – this under normal circumstances  would plunge stocks to record lows.
  • This also makes a mockery of investment analysis. Almost all investment analysts have built their models on technical and fundamental analysis when the majority of  invested base on a companies valuation – not because of a trading imbalance.
  • Now  any stock/index/sector that has momentum/volume has more chances for imbalance and therefore more trading volume.
  • HFT’s dominance shatter shatters traditional technical analysis

Bottom LineIt’s not your old buy and hold forever market is gone gone gone. So is the old technical analysis. Example – Now you can have an index rally on insignificant volume when the Fed POMO gets factored in.  New factors like HFT and DPE’s dominate. This dramatically changes investment strategies.

Investors411 will continue to bring you, outside the box realities that impacts equities and economics

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.57% down
NASDQ +0.53% down
S&P 500 +0.62% down
Russell 2000 +1.07% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Yawn, yet ANOTHER move higher in WEAK volume. 50 to 70% of the volume is soaked up by HFT’s chasing imbalances in trades. This makes those investing because of valuations unbelievably small 30 to 50% of yesterday’s already weak volume yesterday.
  • The Fed POMO bought $8.3 billion form its giant shadow bank members yesterday. With so few real investors out there the manipulated market moved higher.
  • Mantra till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see past Investors411 for many, many moons on this topic).
  • One reason why POMO is so strongwhen it comes to stocks is that there are so FEW real investors.
  • Warning signMajor emerging markets are taking a hit EWZ (Brazil) FXI (China) & IFN India are all down 10 to 20% from their highs. One reason for this is that our Fed’s POMO program is adding to inflation fears in those countries.
  • Not a very significant week as far as expected stock news is concerned. However one big unexpected piece of news is a market mover (negative) China raised Interest rates again another 0.25%.
  • Our Fed POMO program (quantitative easing) has many side effects(positive and negative).  It impacts the valuation of Chinese currency and their interest rates. Warning here - Interest rates go up n China means at some time in the near future Chinese goods are going to cost more here.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was flat yesterday  -0.02%. The three day dollar rally should have hurt stocks, but stocks held onto gains = Bullish. All that had to happen was a flat dollar and like magic US stocks rallied. Longer term trend three weeks of dramatic fall is  bearish for dollar, and for stocks. Overall for stocks still = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose to to to +23.41 Check out the MO chart. Set the time to three years and you will see that it has been almost three months since the MO has hit +/- 60. About once a month the MO reached +/- 60 in the past.  Conclusions – The new MO now has +/- 40 as an overbought/oversold level. It’s too quite – like all of a sudden you’re waling in the forest and all the background noise (birds crickets wind etc) stops Stocks = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantraA manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed.

Major emerging markets are in a meltdown. A correction of 5 to 10% has turned into a 10 to 20% meltdown. Big time inflation is the enemy of stocks. They are starting to experience this.  Devaluing foreign currency has a positive effect here. However longer term when emerging market goods cost more here inflation grows in the USA. Every sophisticate investor sees some sort of inflation on the horizon.  The question is when.

Gold, and commodities may work as a hedge on inflation, but when it comes to the USA,  going short equities provides much more protection.

What to watch today

UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar)  See $USD above for more. Dollar may be turning back down. When after a short rally a stock/sector index opens and closes at same price it often indicates a reversal.

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL -  The tech general broke out to a new high in moderately higher volume. Up 1.55%. Today is its “confirmation day” to see if the move up holds. AAPL joins a smaller tech giant  IBM who broke out a while back

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (leveraged ETF 2x small cap stocks)Sold 1/2 at 45.34 yesterday for 5+% gain
  • REMX (1/2 position Bought at 23.78 and sold 1/2 at 25.03 for 5+% gain) Still moving up
  • DBC Three down days in light volume puts it just below price it was bought for. 5% stop loss on DBC. Expect this to be a long term trade.

From yesterday - Investors411 #1 new area of investments is commodities. For the past few weeks there has been a significant increase in volume in this area = Investors are coming off sidelines to buy.

Thought I had bought RJA yesterday. I had a buy order in at 11.36. This is risky and longer term investors may want to wait for a bigger dip. However this Exchange Traded Note is

UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dips. Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Sold 1/2 at 25.03. Will hold the rest. Considering buying more on a dip. Bought at 23.78. Will buy more on dip

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog Bought at 28.62 Stop loss at 5% below purchase price. DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) ETN New today Has dipped from high for last two days. another moderate dip an Investors will add to ETF portfolio. So considering DJP today & RJA on dips

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Have set stop/loss for last 1/2 at 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.“ (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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