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Wanting Obama & America to Fail

I may criticize Obama and before him Bush, but I never wanted them to fail. Our politicians have gotten so partisan that Obama’s failure has become far more important than solving problems that confront our country and the world.

Richard Shelby (Powerful Republican Senate finance committee minority leader) – has held up 70 Obama appointments because he wants “earmarks” (special compensation) for his state of Alabama. The Huffington Post  labeled him Mr. Roadblock after Shelby held up the nomination for chief of the General Services Office for 10 Months . She passed 96 to 0 . Additional story here . Buying votes has overwhelmed US politics. But this case was just way too blatent.

PIGS

- World Market’s stocks plunged in an aftershock of the financial earthquake that hit last Oct. 2008. In 2008 it was the huge shadow banks that stood on the brink of collapse from over leveraged debt bombs called Credit Default Swaps.  Iceland’s economy is still shattered because it took on too much OVER LEVERAGED debt.

P ortugal, I reland, G reece, and S pain are now in trouble. You can add Great Britain and all the former Soviet satellite countries.  They bought into the unregulated free market capitalism and now like financials are suffering.  They are selling their debt at much higher prices than we are.  Are other countries going to fall like Iceland?- Bill Gross (big bond seller) editorial

Here’s the problem nobody knows how bad or over leveraged things exactly are because there was little regulation.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.61% up
NASDQ -2.99% up
S&P500 -3.11% up
Russell2000- -3.44% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Worldwide stocks dropped in big, above average volume on fears of a credit meltdown in Europe. (See above) This, added to China and some other emerging markets pulling back on stimulus has driven all major indexes to yearly lows = Bearish

Jobs number Headlines -20,000 job losses in January (about what was expected) 9.7% Unemployment rate . Don’t understand how they got this number – down -0.3 % and not seeing job creation).  Seems implausible. They did a yearly revaluation. Basically this is good news for stocks .

Significant indexes

  • McClellan Index fell to -70.88 = Oversold. How low or oversold can markets get before rebounding. We did reach @-93 about 3 days ago, about @-115 last November & @ -130 back in the fall of 2008.
  • BDI – This chart shows the Baltic Dry Index (scroll down) , a measure of shipping costs, Has broken through a major month long  support level at @ 3000 .  Yesterday the BDI rose +12 at 2685.

Analysis Oversold conditions means we are closer to a buy than a sell. Two major questions.

  • Is this correction going to grow? Technically the answer seems to be yes . The charts are showing now 4 major down days in big volume. We are at yearly lows and the McClellan Oscillator is at -71. 3 trading days ago we hit -93 and the markets were at a higher low. All this is Bearish but oversold markets are when to buy.
  • How to play the dip When everyone else sells you buy. The bigger the dip the better your chances. Of course this works best for a short term trader, who is willing to buy the dip and sell a few days/week later.  The more a longer term investor is in cash- the more its time to nibble.

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends – will try to update last few weeks today) – These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Here’s stocks YOU suggested  to add to the Watch List. – Will try to analyze stocks over weekend.
GS, JPM, CSCO, SHOO, ICON, SOA, ALF, VSEC, BIDU VPRT

ETF’s -  6% of portfolio FXI (China), 5% EWZ (Brazil), & 10% MOO (Agriculture) -  Total 21% invested. Sold 1/2 position or 5% of portfolio of EWZ yesterday at $65.1 . This was bought at $52.8 back in July. A +23% gain

I will be adding to positions (hopefully long term) today, hopefully in a dip.

The strategy Buy a position in an oversold market and sell 1/2 of it when it gains 5 to 10% and let the rest ride.  The position should take into account major trends that you understand. For me China, Emerging Markets and Brazil still fit the bill. However there are concerns about a long term US/China trade war. Also any of the ETF’s that do 2 & 3 X what the major US indexes do.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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